One more SB thread...some random reflective thoughts

kas said:

It's certainly possible. Although Chung did have have 10 solo and 3 assisted tackles. I know a bunch of those were in coverage but Chung definitely helped in limiting the damage in the run game.

In fact, the first time I thought we were in trouble was a 3rd and 5 or 6 in the redzone late in the first when instead of passing like 90% of the teams do, they ran off tackle to the right with Ajayi for like 10 yards. The fact that they could run such a basic safe play and still convert showed that we were going to have trouble controlling their run game.

So like I said, maybe they win with Butler, or maybe the Eagles run wild for 250 yards and we're having the same disappointed conversation just with different goats. Can't really argue with your opinion though...

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I'm not rehashing the whole Butler thing again, since there's a very long thread dedicated to that. I'll just note that, after the Patriots straightened out the defense (usually considered to have begun after the first 4 weeks), the Patriots went the rest of the season without surrendering more than 27 points (Dolphins loss where nobody on the Patriots showed up to play). So, after 14 games where opponents scored more than 20 points just twice (Dolphins and Steelers in back-to-back weeks), we have a game where, minus Butler, the defense gives up 41.

I have no problem acknowledging that it was a year where the defensive personnel looked much better because of the coaching, and I have no problem with the idea that they simply reached the personnel breaking point in the SB. But you'll have to excuse me if I take issue with the notion that undermining the personnel by putting the CB2 on the bench wasn't a significant part of the problem, and a significant contributing factor to the personnel reaching said breaking point.

cmasspatsfan said:

I agree and say this as someone who was yelling "PUT BUTLER IN" the whole second half, but can't say we would have won with MB in there, I like our chances with him but can't say for sure, no one can, except Deus I guess.

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Unless you've got a time machine, you'll always be just giving your best guess about the past when you analyze games and opine regarding them. So, if you've got an issue there, sports forums are things you should avoid at all cost.

Deus Irae said:

I'm not rehashing the whole Butler thing again, since there's a very long thread dedicated to that. I'll just note that, after the Patriots straightened out the defense (usually considered to have begun after the first 4 weeks), the Patriots went the rest of the season without surrendering more than 27 points (Dolphins loss where nobody on the Patriots showed up to play). So, after 14 games where opponents scored more than 20 points just twice (Dolphins and Steelers in back-to-back weeks), we have a game where, minus Butler, the defense gives up 41.

I have no problem acknowledging that it was a year where the defensive personnel looked much better because of the coaching, and I have no problem with the idea that they simply reached the personnel breaking point in the SB. But you'll have to excuse me if I take issue with the notion that undermining the personnel by putting the CB2 on the bench wasn't a significant part of the problem, and a significant contributing factor to the personnel reaching said breaking point.

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I won't go as far as suggesting that they would have won the SB with Butler but if I was allowed to ask BB one question it would be "why didn't you play Butler". I don't understand it.

Deus Irae said:

Unless you've got a time machine, you'll always be just giving your best guess about the past when you analyze games and opine regarding them. So, if you've got an issue there, sports forums are things you should avoid at all cost.

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Did butler play against KC? You guys who think we win with MB are the guys with time machines. I like our chances better with him playing but who knows.

Tony2046 said:

I won't go as far as suggesting that they would have won the SB with Butler but if I was allowed to ask BB one question it would be "why didn't you play Butler". I don't understand it.

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You want to try an interesting exercise? Think of the big, controversial moves of BB, and what has happened in the first game following them.

Milloy
Seymour
Welker
Mankins
Collins
Butler

Those were all controversial outside of the W/L, but 1-5 with the only victory being a squeaked out, literally last minute, win against a team that finished 6-10 is one hell of a coincidence....

cmasspatsfan said:

Did butler play against KC? You guys who think we win with MB are the guys with time machines. I like our chances better with him playing but who knows.

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The Patriots allowed an NFL record 6 straight 300 yard passers to start the season, and you want to go with "But KC in week 1!"



The moment you cite to week one as some kind of "GOTCHA!", when we all know that the defense was playing horribly to start the season (which is why people spent all year posting things like "after the defense gelled") you pretty much make yourself useless in this discussion. At that point, it becomes obvious that you either don't know what you're talking about, or you're just too invested in covering for the team to have any input of value.

One thing I've been wondering about is why Pederson told his players to score a touchdown with so much time left in the game. I was assuming they would get the first down and make the pats burn their final two timeouts, run the clock down and kick the field goal or punch it in with like 30 seconds left. I was relieved when they scored with so much time left. unfortunately Brady was stripped sacked and the job got that much harder. but I thought that was a big mistake at the time, especially considering how easy it was for the Pats to move the ball all 2nd half. Anyone else feel that way?

Deus Irae said:

You want to try an interesting exercise? Think of the big, controversial moves of BB, and what has happened in the first game following them.

Milloy
Seymour
Welker
Mankins
Collins
Butler

Those were all controversial outside of the W/L, but 1-5 with the only victory being a squeaked out, literally last minute, win against a team that finished 6-10 is one hell of a coincidence....

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OK. I don't want to exercise. Take it back.

Seriously though, those other cuts were during the season and this was during the last game of the year. Truly mind boggling.

I'm not in the "ego manic" boat but do question why he had literally 0 snaps on D. Did BB think his D scheme was going to finally kick in at some point?

Anyways good points Deus.

Calhoun44 said:

One thing I've been wondering about is why Pederson told his players to score a touchdown with so much time left in the game. I was assuming they would get the first down and make the pats burn their final two timeouts, run the clock down and kick the field goal or punch it in with like 30 seconds left. I was relieved when they scored with so much time left. unfortunately Brady was stripped sacked and the job got that much harder. but I thought that was a big mistake at the time, especially considering how easy it was for the Pats to move the ball all 2nd half. Anyone else feel that way?

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Our whole SB party was thinking the same way. "They gave Brady too much time" but that quickly dried up after the strip sack.

Deus Irae said:

The moment you cite to week one as some kind of "GOTCHA!", when we all know that the defense was playing horribly to start the season (which is why people spent all year posting things like "after the defense gelled") you pretty much make yourself useless in this discussion. At that point, it becomes obvious that you either don't know what you're talking about, or you're just too invested in covering for the team to have any input of value.

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Your to used to confrontation I guess, Not trying to gotcha, just not good predicting the future as you appear to be. Like I said, I like our odds better with MB playing but don't know if we win, would bet we do but who knows. You seem to be sure of it so you must have some sort of time machine that tells the future. Maybe next year you can offer this time machine to BB before the game so we can get the results before the game.

cmasspatsfan said:

Your to used to confrontation I guess, Not trying to gotcha, just not good predicting the future as you appear to be. Like I said, I like our odds better with MB playing but don't know if we win, would bet we do but who knows. You seem to be sure of it so you must have some sort of time machine that tells the future. Maybe next year you can offer this time machine to BB before the game so we can get the results before the game.

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How you don't see the irony, and inanity, of your post is something for you to worry about.

A 31st ranked NE defense could not stop a back up QB. A 5th ranked PHI defense stopped a HOF QB. FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2017 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

I am not convinced that Bulter would have changed the outcome. The Pats were porous on passing defense all season.

Deus Irae said:

If Butler plays, the Patriots almost certainly win.

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kas said:

It's certainly possible.

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I don't think it's going out on a limb to change that to probable.

mb6592 said:

I don't think it's going out on a limb to change that to probable.

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As I said earlier, the whole game changes. The Eagles control the clock like the Giants did when they beat us in the Super Bowl except they probably get more chunk plays. Probably very similar to the Miami game where they were able to dominate us on the edges.

Based on the results I can't really argue though - Outschemed, out coached, outexecuted on jay side of the ball for a full 60 minutes. Something had to have happened (I don't buy the coach speak for one second) to staple one of your few playmakers on the bench all game. Whether it is justified or whether it was BB overzealously applying his next man up philosophy, that's the million dollar question.

Deus Irae said:

You want to try an interesting exercise? Think of the big, controversial moves of BB, and what has happened in the first game following them.

Milloy
Seymour
Welker
Mankins
Collins
Butler

Those were all controversial outside of the W/L, but 1-5 with the only victory being a squeaked out, literally last minute, win against a team that finished 6-10 is one hell of a coincidence....

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Yeah I made that same point in one of the older threads. At this point BB should have known that benching Butler would have a negative impact on the team's performance.

If LeVeon Bell didn’t get hurt we would have won.

If Carroll ran Lynch we would have won.

If the Patriots didn’t use illegal
Formations we would have won.

If Antonio Brown was available we would have won.

If the Patriots corners didn’t manhandle our receivers we would have won.

If the Patriots didn’t cheat we would have won.

If Belichick played Butler we would have won



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Ivan said:

If LeVeon Bell didn’t get hurt we would have won.

If Carroll ran Lynch we would have won.

If the Patriots didn’t use illegal
Formations we would have won.

If Antonio Brown was available we would have won.

If the Patriots corners didn’t manhandle our receivers we would have won.

If the Patriots didn’t cheat we would have won.

If Belichick played Butler we would have won



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If what you’re saying is true...

kas said:

Next, many have insinuated that this was a replica of the KC gameplan, or that we had never played Chung in the slot before. Fact is, our safeties played more than our corners this year. Very often, Chung was in the slot and not always matched up against the TE. You can argue against the matchup all you want and you can (and probably should crap all over the strategy). But this is not something that they came up with out of the blue. And, in theory, the strategy makes sense - essentially we are substituting out our #3 corner for our best in the box safety (Chung). We did not believe we could win "big on big" in between the hash marks.

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Chung covering TY Hilton:
Chung showed even more versatility Sunday night, when he shadowed shifty, speedy Indianapolis Colts No. 1 receiver T.Y. Hilton for half of the game.
I still think that with Butler maybe they would be better, but we have some nice turn off events in the last two SB wins. Not this SB:
4&1 that Eagles keep alive.
Graham bounced and strip Brady.

mb6592 said:

I don't think it's going out on a limb to change that to probable.

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"More probable than not..."

kas said:

I have also heard that they should have put Butler on Agholor. The problem with that would have been the Eagles would have tore us up on the ground. So maybe Foles would not have been MVP...it would have gone to Blount or Ajayi instead...

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I still would've taken my chances with Butler on the field instead of off it. Obviously.