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<rant>When Exactly Did THAT Happen?</rant>


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Playoff career:
Rodgers: 17 games, 36 TD, 10 interceptions, 99.4 passer rating
Brady: 34 games, 63 TD, 31 INT, 89.0 passer rating

The narrative that Rodgers doesn't show up in big games is inaccurate.

By the way, you know who also has an amazing win-loss record and has a stellar playoff career? Russell Wilson. I don't know about you, but I don't think that Wilson can sniff Rodgers/Brady's jockstrap. Brady has a better organization/coach than Rodgers does. It's not hard to see how people would factor that into their opinion.

Also, let me again emphasize in my original post that I think Brady is better. Getting upset about someone suggesting Rodgers is better is really insecure. Accept that other people are going to have opinion other than your own. It's not hard to see why someone might give Rodgers the edge. This constant victim playing by Patriots fans is really a bad look.

This is a good post, a little too data-driven and reasonable for this board, but good nonetheless. Also people who reply to it hysterically should note that you still think Brady is better!
 
Manning and Rodgers are/were awesome QBs. So much fun to watch. It's frustrating that the media was always trying to put Manning above Brady and now Rodgers above him. I'd rather not pick apart their play and would rather just enjoy their play. But you have to when trying to explain or understand why Brady wins so much more.

Look at his loss to the Broncos in the playoffs two seasons ago. Brady took more hits than any QB had taken in any NFL game had in ten years, yet there he was leading a TD drive at the end of the game. He failed to complete the game tying two point conversion, but at least he lofted a pass into the end zone while getting pummeled. What other QB would or could still be fighting like that and giving his team a chance after the beating he took?
 
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People need to stop buying the hype about Rodgers. Just because a mediot says something it doesn't mean we have to believe it. Here's a list of active NFL QB's and their career 4th quarter comebacks:

Brady 40
Eli 30
Ben 29
Brees 28
Stafford 26
Ryan 28
Rivers 24
Cutler and Palmer 24
Flacco and Smith 19
Wilson 18
Dalton 15
Luck 14
Carr, Newton, Tannehil and Rodgers 12
Schaub 11
Sanchez 10
Cassel and Fitzpicksix 9

A vast majority of Rodgers' 12 4QC's were against losing teams, mostly the Lions and Bears. The two exceptions were an 8-7 Bears team at the end of 2013 and Dallas in a 2015 playoff game.
Okay, a few points here:

- first of all, you're using a counting stat as a point of comparison. Brady has 274 career games started, Rodgers has 165 career games played. This is a silly comparison. Now, on the other hand, clearly on a per-game basis Brady is obviously much better.

- second, I don't think 4th quarter comebacks is the end-all, be-all stat. I have a couple of problems with it. First, Peyton Manning is #1 all-time (45). I don't consider Manning to be particularly "clutch", so it sort of calls into question the value of the statistic.

The other problem I have with 4th quarter comebacks if that I feel it's biased towards players with good defenses. Since 2001, the Patriots have allowed the 4th-least points in the game. Since Rodgers became a starter, the Packers have allowed the 6th-most points in the league. So, objectively -- and even without the numbers -- I think it's fair to say Brady has had a better defense (and coaching stuff, to boot).

A great example of this is Russell Wilson. Wilson has 18 career 4th-quarter comebacks already. Wilson is also like 2-9 when his opponents score of 25 points. I think Wilson gets a lot of "misleading" 4th quarter comebacks. Rarely does Wilson's defense fall behind a significant amount. If Wilson needs to mount a "comeback", it's rarely a big deficit. Who is more likely to mount a comeback: Wilson, down 14-12 with 5:00 to go, or Rodgers, down 28-14 with 5:00 to go? This is a contrived example, but you see my point.

Here's the thing about 4th quarter comebacks though: a QB can engineer a go-ahead drive and still lose the game. A great example of this is last week in the Dallas-Green Bay game. Dak Prescott put the Cowboys ahead with 55 seconds to go (which would've been a game-winning drive), and then his defense pissed it away! That loss wasn't on Dak, but he's not going to get credit for a game-winning drive, right? So... again, I think it's biased towards teams that can "hold" a late lead.

I'm not saying that Rodgers is super clutch or something (although in fairness he has some outrageous finishes the past few years -- the Hail Mary in the Lions game; completing a 4th-and-20 from his end zone, and then another Hail Mary to win against the Cardinals, etc), just that I think 4th quarter comebacks is maybe not the best statistic. (By the way, I do think Tom Brady is, without a doubt, the most clutch all-time.)
 
Playoff career:
Rodgers: 17 games, 36 TD, 10 interceptions, 99.4 passer rating
Brady: 34 games, 63 TD, 31 INT, 89.0 passer rating

The narrative that Rodgers doesn't show up in big games is inaccurate.

By the way, you know who also has an amazing win-loss record and has a stellar playoff career? Russell Wilson. I don't know about you, but I don't think that Wilson can sniff Rodgers/Brady's jockstrap. Brady has a better organization/coach than Rodgers does. It's not hard to see how people would factor that into their opinion.

Also, let me again emphasize in my original post that I think Brady is better. Getting upset about someone suggesting Rodgers is better is really insecure. Accept that other people are going to have opinion other than your own. It's not hard to see why someone might give Rodgers the edge. This constant victim playing by Patriots fans is really a bad look.

So you take three statistics (one of which being a poor measure of QB play) and ignore everything else? Don't you understand that I have a lot of work to do and you're giving me excuses for procrastination?

Let's look at Rodgers' playoff history:

1. 2009 - Loss to Arizona, Wild Card Game 51-45

Other than an interception on his first pass, Rodgers and Warner had an amazing shootout where they went tit-for-tat, ending up tied in overtime. How did Arizona win? Sack caused Rodgers to fumble, Karlos Dansby runs it in for the TD, game over. Verdict - played great, coughed up the football on a critical play in OT that led to the loss.

2. 2010 - Super Bowl Winners

Rodgers played great leading a Wild Card team to the Big Show, especially in his NFC Championship game where he went 31 for 36 with 4 TDs. He then put on a fantastic performance in the Super Bowl and was unanimous MVP. No question, this was his apex, although having the #2 scoring defense didn't hurt. Hard to believe that this was the ONLY Super Bowl game he played in.

3. 2011 - Loss to NY Giants, Divisional Playoffs, 37-20

Giants came to Lambeau and won handily, with Rodgers going 26-46 with 2 TDs, 1 INT and 1 Fumble. Verdict - everything in their favour, lost to a big underdog, not impressive.

4. 2012 - Loss to San Francisco 49ers, Divisional Playoffs, 45-31

This was the Kaepernick game in Candlestick where he set a record for QB rushing. Rodgers and the Packers started strong and had a lead at the end of the 1st quarter, but from then on it was all Kaep as he torched the GB defense repeatedly. Meanwhile GB was turning the ball over. Rodgers was 26-39 for 257 with 2 TDs and an INT.

5. 2013 - Loss to San Francisco 49ers, Wild Card Game, 23-20

This was in Lambeau in the cold. Rodgers again was outplayed by Kaep, and in the 4th quarter could only drive for a FG and a tie, leaving 5 minutes for the Niners to get to FG position and score on the last play of the game. Rodgers was 17-26 for 177 yards and one TD. His quotation on the game was "Very disappointing, personally," Rodgers said. "It's frustrating not to play your best game in tough conditions. Defense holds them to 23 points. We should win that game."

6. 2014 - Loss to Seahawks, NFC Championship Game, 28-22

This one the Packers dominated, mainly due to their defense even though it was in Seattle. The Packers were up 19-7 with 4 minutes to go. Rodgers went 19-34 with 1 TD and 2 INTs. They should have won the game but let it slip in the 4th quarter by playing conservative and Seattle recovering an onside kick. They managed to tie it up with a 48-yd field goal, then lost on the first drive of OT as Seattle's revitalized crowd carried them to victory from the dead.

7. 2015 - Loss to Cardinals, NFC Divisional Game, 26-20

This was a game the Cardinals had well in hand, until Rodgers threw a Hail Mary with 5 seconds left that they caught and tied the game on. We've discussed the issue of Hail Marys before - this is not some unique and great QB skill. They should have lost the game, but instead went to OT, where the Cards won the toss and then tossed the ball to Fitz for the 75-yard TD. Rodgers was 24-44 for 261 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. Outplayed by Palmer.

8. 2016 - Loss to Falcons, NFC Championship Game, 44-21

This one was more or less a blowout, with Rodgers going 27-45 with 3 TDs, an INT and 2 sacks, much coming in the 2nd half with the game already decided.

So there we are, 8 years of playoffs, 7 big losses. In the 8 years of record, Rodgers played great in 2 of his final games (interestingly, his first two), well in one, okay in another and not well in 4. That's 50-50 good-bad roughly.

In those losses, Rodgers was 191-315 (60.6%) with 18 TDs and 7 INTs (2.6-1 TD/INT ratio). In the playoff wins, he was 187-280 (66.8%) with 18 TDs and 3 INTs (6-1 TD/INT ratio). Not surprisingly, the losses correspond to significantly worse QB play from Rodgers. And that's my point - the BEST measure of QB play is wins and losses over time and in the big games.

When was the last time we had a great QB who couldn't win games? Look at the Colts, they were awful when Luck came in such that they had first pick in the draft, and they were immediately able to get into the playoffs. Now I don't much rate Luck compared to Rodgers, but the point is that good QBs have a disproportionate effect on the game and great QBs win a hell of a lot more than they lose. And what they do seldom comes down to simple statistics. It's no coincidence that both Manning and Rodgers have far worse playoff records than regular season ones. To beat the best in the crucible of fire is the true measure of the greatest, and Rodgers comes a cropper in comparison. Brady has 10 game-winning drives and 7 4th Quarter comebacks in the playoffs - Rodgers has 2 and 1 in about half the total games played.

As to Wilson, I agree he's not in the same class as Rodgers. But on the other hand, he's got really good intangibles and the more critical moments seem to bring out the best in him. Rodgers becomes very risk averse at those points, which is why he seldom snatches victory from the jaws of defeat unless he's simply winging it 50 yards into a crowd in the End Zone.
 
Anyone who thinks Rodgers has been a better QB over the past 5 years than Brady probably would have taken RG3 over Luck and Wilson during their rookie year. If you care more about flashy plays and carrying deeply flawed teams to decent performances than consistency, durability, and bringing good teams to the mountaintop, then sure you'll prefer Rodgers. You probably also preferred Griffin, when even at the time Wilson was the better player and time has only made that clearer.
 
Laid on my sick bed and watched that GB/DAL game last Sunday. Lots of ARod ball-washing from the broadcasters. Reminded me of their treatment of another good, but not my QB, a few years back!
 
Okay, a few points here:

- first of all, you're using a counting stat as a point of comparison. Brady has 274 career games started, Rodgers has 165 career games played. This is a silly comparison. Now, on the other hand, clearly on a per-game basis Brady is obviously much better.

- second, I don't think 4th quarter comebacks is the end-all, be-all stat. I have a couple of problems with it. First, Peyton Manning is #1 all-time (45). I don't consider Manning to be particularly "clutch", so it sort of calls into question the value of the statistic.

The other problem I have with 4th quarter comebacks if that I feel it's biased towards players with good defenses. Since 2001, the Patriots have allowed the 4th-least points in the game. Since Rodgers became a starter, the Packers have allowed the 6th-most points in the league. So, objectively -- and even without the numbers -- I think it's fair to say Brady has had a better defense (and coaching stuff, to boot).

A great example of this is Russell Wilson. Wilson has 18 career 4th-quarter comebacks already. Wilson is also like 2-9 when his opponents score of 25 points. I think Wilson gets a lot of "misleading" 4th quarter comebacks. Rarely does Wilson's defense fall behind a significant amount. If Wilson needs to mount a "comeback", it's rarely a big deficit. Who is more likely to mount a comeback: Wilson, down 14-12 with 5:00 to go, or Rodgers, down 28-14 with 5:00 to go? This is a contrived example, but you see my point.

Here's the thing about 4th quarter comebacks though: a QB can engineer a go-ahead drive and still lose the game. A great example of this is last week in the Dallas-Green Bay game. Dak Prescott put the Cowboys ahead with 55 seconds to go (which would've been a game-winning drive), and then his defense pissed it away! That loss wasn't on Dak, but he's not going to get credit for a game-winning drive, right? So... again, I think it's biased towards teams that can "hold" a late lead.

I'm not saying that Rodgers is super clutch or something (although in fairness he has some outrageous finishes the past few years -- the Hail Mary in the Lions game; completing a 4th-and-20 from his end zone, and then another Hail Mary to win against the Cardinals, etc), just that I think 4th quarter comebacks is maybe not the best statistic. (By the way, I do think Tom Brady is, without a doubt, the most clutch all-time.)


About those 4th qtr comeback stats, I think it is important to look at the number of losses which are the times of failed comebacks. Just looking at the stats clearly lacks context, but it still can give a picture.

Brady 40 comeback wins, 54 losses
Manning 45 comeback wins, 79 losses
Rodgers 12 comeback wins, 47 losses

Again, this lacks context, but damn...
 
So you take three statistics (one of which being a poor measure of QB play) and ignore everything else? Don't you understand that I have a lot of work to do and you're giving me excuses for procrastination?

Let's look at Rodgers' playoff history:

1. 2009 - Loss to Arizona, Wild Card Game 51-45

Other than an interception on his first pass, Rodgers and Warner had an amazing shootout where they went tit-for-tat, ending up tied in overtime. How did Arizona win? Sack caused Rodgers to fumble, Karlos Dansby runs it in for the TD, game over. Verdict - played great, coughed up the football on a critical play in OT that led to the loss.

2. 2010 - Super Bowl Winners

Rodgers played great leading a Wild Card team to the Big Show, especially in his NFC Championship game where he went 31 for 36 with 4 TDs. He then put on a fantastic performance in the Super Bowl and was unanimous MVP. No question, this was his apex, although having the #2 scoring defense didn't hurt. Hard to believe that this was the ONLY Super Bowl game he played in.

3. 2011 - Loss to NY Giants, Divisional Playoffs, 37-20

Giants came to Lambeau and won handily, with Rodgers going 26-46 with 2 TDs, 1 INT and 1 Fumble. Verdict - everything in their favour, lost to a big underdog, not impressive.

4. 2012 - Loss to San Francisco 49ers, Divisional Playoffs, 45-31

This was the Kaepernick game in Candlestick where he set a record for QB rushing. Rodgers and the Packers started strong and had a lead at the end of the 1st quarter, but from then on it was all Kaep as he torched the GB defense repeatedly. Meanwhile GB was turning the ball over. Rodgers was 26-39 for 257 with 2 TDs and an INT.

5. 2013 - Loss to San Francisco 49ers, Wild Card Game, 23-20

This was in Lambeau in the cold. Rodgers again was outplayed by Kaep, and in the 4th quarter could only drive for a FG and a tie, leaving 5 minutes for the Niners to get to FG position and score on the last play of the game. Rodgers was 17-26 for 177 yards and one TD. His quotation on the game was "Very disappointing, personally," Rodgers said. "It's frustrating not to play your best game in tough conditions. Defense holds them to 23 points. We should win that game."

6. 2014 - Loss to Seahawks, NFC Championship Game, 28-22

This one the Packers dominated, mainly due to their defense even though it was in Seattle. The Packers were up 19-7 with 4 minutes to go. Rodgers went 19-34 with 1 TD and 2 INTs. They should have won the game but let it slip in the 4th quarter by playing conservative and Seattle recovering an onside kick. They managed to tie it up with a 48-yd field goal, then lost on the first drive of OT as Seattle's revitalized crowd carried them to victory from the dead.

7. 2015 - Loss to Cardinals, NFC Divisional Game, 26-20

This was a game the Cardinals had well in hand, until Rodgers threw a Hail Mary with 5 seconds left that they caught and tied the game on. We've discussed the issue of Hail Marys before - this is not some unique and great QB skill. They should have lost the game, but instead went to OT, where the Cards won the toss and then tossed the ball to Fitz for the 75-yard TD. Rodgers was 24-44 for 261 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. Outplayed by Palmer.

8. 2016 - Loss to Falcons, NFC Championship Game, 44-21

This one was more or less a blowout, with Rodgers going 27-45 with 3 TDs, an INT and 2 sacks, much coming in the 2nd half with the game already decided.

So there we are, 8 years of playoffs, 7 big losses. In the 8 years of record, Rodgers played great in 2 of his final games (interestingly, his first two), well in one, okay in another and not well in 4. That's 50-50 good-bad roughly.

In those losses, Rodgers was 191-315 (60.6%) with 18 TDs and 7 INTs (2.6-1 TD/INT ratio). In the playoff wins, he was 187-280 (66.8%) with 18 TDs and 3 INTs (6-1 TD/INT ratio). Not surprisingly, the losses correspond to significantly worse QB play from Rodgers. And that's my point - the BEST measure of QB play is wins and losses over time and in the big games.

When was the last time we had a great QB who couldn't win games? Look at the Colts, they were awful when Luck came in such that they had first pick in the draft, and they were immediately able to get into the playoffs. Now I don't much rate Luck compared to Rodgers, but the point is that good QBs have a disproportionate effect on the game and great QBs win a hell of a lot more than they lose. And what they do seldom comes down to simple statistics. It's no coincidence that both Manning and Rodgers have far worse playoff records than regular season ones. To beat the best in the crucible of fire is the true measure of the greatest, and Rodgers comes a cropper in comparison. Brady has 10 game-winning drives and 7 4th Quarter comebacks in the playoffs - Rodgers has 2 and 1 in about half the total games played.

As to Wilson, I agree he's not in the same class as Rodgers. But on the other hand, he's got really good intangibles and the more critical moments seem to bring out the best in him. Rodgers becomes very risk averse at those points, which is why he seldom snatches victory from the jaws of defeat unless he's simply winging it 50 yards into a crowd in the End Zone.
Great analysis although I'll correct you on 1 thing: in the 2010 Super Bowl year, you mistook the divisional game vs Atlanta as the NFCCG. In the NFCCG that year vs the Bears, Rodgers was not very good: 0 TD, 2 INT, (1 yard rush TD). 244 yards.
 
So you take three statistics (one of which being a poor measure of QB play) and ignore everything else? Don't you understand that I have a lot of work to do and you're giving me excuses for procrastination?
Let's look at this on a more macro level. In four of those losses, Green Bay's defense allowed:
51 points
44 points
41 points
37 points

Did you know that in Brady's entire 34-game playoff career, the defense has allowed 37 or more points one time (to the Colts, in 2006)? In fact, in Brady's playoff career, the Patriots have allowed only 30 points 3 times:

2006, Colts (loss, 34-38)
2009, Ravens (loss, 14-33)
2014, Ravens (win, 35-31)
 
About those 4th qtr comeback stats, I think it is important to look at the number of losses which are the times of failed comebacks. Just looking at the stats clearly lacks context, but it still can give a picture.

Brady 40 comeback wins, 54 losses
Manning 45 comeback wins, 79 losses
Rodgers 12 comeback wins, 47 losses

Again, this lacks context, but damn...
Thanks, that is helpful. I'm still a little unclear what this means though. I've seen Russell Wilson get credit for a 4th quarter comeback drive that happened at like 13:00 minutes left in the game, where his defense didn't allow any more points after that. Can you give me a link so I can explore a little more?

Cool stat though, that's definitely way of framing it.
 
Thanks, that is helpful. I'm still a little unclear what this means though. I've seen Russell Wilson get credit for a 4th quarter comeback drive that happened at like 13:00 minutes left in the game, where his defense didn't allow any more points after that. Can you give me a link so I can explore a little more?

Cool stat though, that's definitely way of framing it.


I just took it from pro football reference. NFL Fourth Quarter Comebacks Career Leaders (since 1960) | Pro-Football-Reference.com
 
Also, let me again emphasize in my original post that I think Brady is better. Getting upset about someone suggesting Rodgers is better is really insecure. Accept that other people are going to have opinion other than your own. It's not hard to see why someone might give Rodgers the edge. This constant victim playing by Patriots fans is really a bad look.

It's not only about Brady. Someone who'd idiotically conclude Rodgers > Brady is essentially putting him over Montana as well. That's just absurd and so far removed from reality. I'm not even sure Rodgers has surpassed Peyton or Elway.
 
I hate the argument people use to downgrade Brady by saying 'he's had Belichick his whole career'.

Obviously it's an advantage over any other quarterback in history but nobody ever mentions that Belichick is first and foremost a defensive genius (despite some of the pitiful defended the patriots have had in the last 10 years).
Nobody ever mentions that Brady has played under 3 different OC's in 4 different regimes.
Nobody ever mentions Brady has mastered so many different primary offensive stratagems.

Rodgers has pretty much played the same strategy for his whole career whereas Brady has used multiple different offensive stratagems.
But people forget that "Manning had Dungy for much of his career."
 
I find that people referring to Rodgers is that his "physical" attributes are what makes him the "best" player. He is very exciting to watch and as much as Favre was a "gunslinger" and also exciting to watch.

Personally, winning is exciting and if you were building the Frankenstein of QBs, to make the ultimate QB, you would choose Brady's brain as this is what separates him from the rest.

It's just lazy reporting and most media and people have pretty much confirmed Brady is the GOAT. I am at peace and they can be fan boys as much as they want. I've got my QB and that's all I need (well continued OL improvement helps too : )

A lot about Rogers’ physical attributes (and TFB butthurt.)

With the likes of Rogers you see “escapability” and “athleticism” praised.

This means that he can make plays running, and extend plays running. That is exciting.

TFB finds the one spot in the pocket where he won’t get got, acts like nothing bad is happening, and with the extra seconds, finds the open man. That’s sort of boring.

But he’s the best at it in the league.

For my money, 99% of passes are thrown by the QB. In a passing league, it’s good if the passing guy has the best chance to pass. So I’ll still take the passing guy. There are other guys who are more “athletic” runners.

Find open man. Throw ball. I mean, that really is the job.
 
What happened to Rodgers is karma for that beyond-stupid State Farm commercial with the dog. When he agreed to do a scene for it with his head out the truck window and his tongue sticking out the gods said, "Enough of this guy for a while." Even the dog is looking at him like, "WTF is that idiot doing?"

state-farm-together-featuring-aaron-rodgers-clay-matthews-large-5.jpg
 
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Rodgers has proclaimed Brady the goat multiple times unlike Peyton. This is just a problem for fans and media.
 
A lot about Rogers’ physical attributes (and TFB butthurt.)

With the likes of Rogers you see “escapability” and “athleticism” praised.

This means that he can make plays running, and extend plays running. That is exciting.

TFB finds the one spot in the pocket where he won’t get got, acts like nothing bad is happening, and with the extra seconds, finds the open man. That’s sort of boring.

But he’s the best at it in the league.

For my money, 99% of passes are thrown by the QB. In a passing league, it’s good if the passing guy has the best chance to pass. So I’ll still take the passing guy. There are other guys who are more “athletic” runners.

Find open man. Throw ball. I mean, that really is the job.

I agree for the most part, but I think you're underrating what a player who's proficient in both can do to a defense. Look at the Patriots early this year against mobile QBs, they rushed contain and allowed Alex Smith, Cam Newton, and DeShaun Watson all day to throw. I didn't agree with the strategy, but letting guys pin back their ears brings another risk. Yeah, a run-first QB is always going to have problems, but a guy like Rodgers who's a top-notch passer with some legs can force a defense to open the game a bit more and give the quarterback time to throw. If Brady could run like Rodgers, he'd basically be completely unstoppable.

(Not to you, PatsFanInVA, but generally) I think Brady is better than Rodgers, and I find Aaron Rodgers incomparably annoying and weird, but I think the weird insecurity Patriots fans have in admitting Rodgers is an historically good, Hall of Famer level QB is similarly annoying.
 
Since the beginning of 2009, Aaron Rodgers has 281 TD, 61 INT, and a 105.8 passer rating to along with 21 rushing TD.

In that same time frame Brady has 272 TD, 68 INT, and a 100.9 passer rating and 12 rushing TD.

Is it really such a travesty to entertain the idea that Rodgers might be slightly better? (Personally, I would take Brady, but if I put him ahead of Rodgers he's ahead by a hair.)

People are going to be quick to scream "YEAH, BUT WINS!" or "YEAH, BUT SUPER BOWLS!", but Brady has the luxury of the best coach in NFL history. What would their resumes look like if the roles were reversed? (Brady spends his whole career with Mike McCarthey, Rodgers his whole career with Belichick?)

I hate how thin-skinned sports fans are. Go outside and get a breath of fresh air. It's like, at worst, someone thinks Brady is the second-best QB in the league, and it's now perceived as a giant slap in the face. Practically everyone has conceded that Tom Brady is the GOAT at this point. This isn't "disrespectful". Please, have some perspective.

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