How does the Patriots offense change without Edelman?

There is no plug and play option. Amendola is probably the closest guy on the roster but he doesn't do exactly the same thing. Hogan and Cooks can do some slot work but they are more vertical options. The way the Patriots attack a team will need to change somewhat.

White last year caught 60 passes last year. David Johnson (80) Bell (75) were the only backs to catch more passes and both have bigger frames. I do worry about over using him a bit and him not being healthy for the playoffs. I do think him and Burkhead will be asked to do more short yardage plays. Lewis sometimes as well but I see him as more of a change of pace RB. Last year the Pats RB/FBs caught 86 total passes. I expect that number to be well over 100 this year without Edelman.

I also think the Pats need to be less conservative and will be more mistake prone. Edelman was great on those 3rd and 5 and 3rd and 6 plays. He got you exactly the yards you need or just a bit more. I think this Patriots team can not count on the same third down conversion rate. This means they probably have to try to face less 3rd downs by getting bigger plays on first and 2nd down. More vertical passes and outs to the sideline or attempting to go over the top of the D.

Last year Brady threw 42 passes over 21 yards. In 2015 it was 60 (4 more games that year) I think we will see them attempt to attack down field more but more so between the 10-20 range than really deep passes though I expect an uptick in those as well.

It will probably look somewhere between 2007 to the 2011-12 offenses I would think. I am curious what others think as no one knows for sure yet.

IMHO, the acquisition of Cooks and Hogan being in his second year will have much of an effect on game planning (and the passing game) than the loss of Edelman.

The change in RB's may also have a large effect on planning the running game.

Yes, Edelman was very important to the office, but others (more then one) can pick up the slack in Edelman's various roles.

BOTTOM LINE
Brady will likely look to many more people on 3rd down.

I don't see a difference. I see different personnel playing to roughly the same game plan.

Would not be surprised to see cooks tried on the slot from time to time, especially on thrd down, he's a great deep receiver but is build and quickness leads me to feel he was born for the slot role, he just looks like a Welker/Edelman type guy to me especially with how much this offense is built around the 5 yard bullet pass which opens up a seam for a 15 yard run. Cooks looks like he's built exactly to spec for that kind of assignment.

I mean it made all the sense in the world to use cooks as a long ball guy in new Orleans, Brees lives or dies on the home run throw at times, but the Patriots are traditionally a field position offense that lives or dies on its ability to pass in the slot to set up the run, then run to set up the inside pass. That's our bread and butter. And Cooks looks perfect for that style so I expect them to at least try it.

I expect to see more screens and tight end curls, and especially them pulling out more plays for a 2-tight end set.

Having a legit burner opens up all sorts of advantages and options for Brady. In the recent past, the team has HAD to go with the short, over-the-middle routes because they did NOT have a legit burner, a legit deep threat they could count on on a regular basis. Now they do with Cooks.

Right now, New England has an embarrassment of riches at the WR position, can run a 2-TE set again, and has at least 3 solid sets of hands out of the backfield.

The Patriots will do what they do every year: Improvise, Adapt, Overcome.

mgteich said:

IMHO, the acquisition of Cooks and Hogan being in his second year will have much of an effect on game planning (and the passing game) than the loss of Edelman.

The change in RB's may also have a large effect on planning the running game.

Yes, Edelman was very important to the office, but others (more then one) can pick up the slack in Edelman's various roles.

BOTTOM LINE
Brady will likely look to many more people on 3rd down.

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Excellent response. Only thing I can add is the plethora of backs that can split wide and come out of the backfield. Two pass catching back sets may offer another wrinkle to the more traditional 3 WR and 2 TE sets we've seen with Edelman.

sans edelman, we win another SB.

They may take out some routes designed for JE11 but nothing changes.

As long as no one else gets hurt they are still putting up 30ppg.

I think top 5 target rankings go from what would have been:
Gronk>Edelman>Hogan>Cooks>RBs

to

Gronk>Cooks>Hogan>RBs>Amendola

I think Hogan will start off getting motr targets, but, Cooks will overtake him once he gets Brady's trust.

hovis said:

I think top 5 target rankings go from what would have been:
Gronk>Edelman>Hogan>Cooks>RBs

to

Gronk>Cooks>Hogan>RBs>Amendola

I think Hogan will start off getting motr targets, but, Cooks will overtake him once he gets Brady's trust.

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Cooks was an 1100 yard WR last year. BB for the first time in his career gave up a first round pick for a player. No way would he have been fourth on targets list.

This just in from Malcolm Mitchell:

Who, besides Amendola, is best capable of lining up in the slot and running the full route tree?

In order, I am guessing Burkhead, White, Hogan, then Mitchell, then Carr or Lucien if one of them makes the 53 (with Hogan & Mitchell mostly lining up outside, though)

The single thing I find most disappointing about this forum is that so many posters here don't understand Edelman's greatness. Even since his injury I don't think a single person has mentioned that one of the key ways Edelman contributes is his blocking, which is critical.

The idea that any one player or group of players can replace Edelman is ludicrous. He has great physical ability, extraordinary intelligence, played selflessly, and was eerily in sync with Brady. He's the best receiver in the league. The best that can be hoped now that he's gone is not too big an increase in turnovers and maybe a spectacular defense.

The offense has a harder time on third down in the playoffs... Last year they were 51% on third down in the post season... Without Edelman they'll be in the low 40s....In 2015 after Edelman got hurt the Pats were 29% on third down after being over 50%....yes I know Gronkowski was hurt as well

It doesn't change, it evolves.
I think a major misconception is that Edelman has been a slot receiver and we need 100 catches out of the slot.
That's really not true.
Yes one facet, and a very important facet of edelmans game is catching 3rd down passes from the slot.
However, Edelman caught just 28 of his 98 passes on 3rd down (31 on 1st 39 on 2nd) and a quarter of those were on 3rd and 10+.
That is out of a total of 105 3rddown completions.

Pats on 3rd. 105/160/1497 and 79 1st downs
Edelman on 3rd 28/49/431 25 1st downs

Amendola was 14/18/173 11 1st downs
In 2015 he was20/28/214 11 1st

So roughly 70% of Edelman production was in first and second down. Considering Gronk missed most of the season on first and second down instead of

Edelman Bennett hogan Mitchell RB (James white caught only 1/3 of his passes on 3rd down too btw) we will have
Cooks Gronk hogan Mitchell RB

I don't think we are suffering.

On 3rd essentially amendola replaces Edelman it would seem. This would be considered a clear drop off in that slots ability to get open in short areas however adding cooks and Gronk means he will be facing a defensive scheme that is softer against him in this short areas than Edelman did.

It should also be noted that amendola has played in 8 games that Edelman did not. I will discount 2 because they were the final games of 14 and 15 where we rested players and didn't run the offense.
In the 6 games amendolas numbers were 31-370.

There are plenty of quality receivers to make the offense great.

FCB02062 said:

The offense has a harder time on third down in the playoffs... Last year they were 51% on third down in the post season... Without Edelman they'll be in the low 40s....In 2015 after Edelman got hurt the Pats were 29% on third down after being over 50%....yes I know Gronkowski was hurt as well

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Sample size.
in 2015 we played in the playoffs without a RB and with an OL that was barely healthy enough to take the field. You are basing your argument on 2 games

K. Dog said:

The single thing I find most disappointing about this forum is that so many posters here don't understand Edelman's greatness. Even since his injury I don't think a single person has mentioned that one of the key ways Edelman contributes is his blocking, which is critical.

The idea that any one player or group of players can replace Edelman is ludicrous. He has great physical ability, extraordinary intelligence, played selflessly, and was eerily in sync with Brady. He's the best receiver in the league. The best that can be hoped now that he's gone is not too big an increase in turnovers and maybe a spectacular defense.

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Best receiver in the league?

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

Who, besides Amendola, is best capable of lining up in the slot and running the full route tree?

In order, I am guessing Burkhead, White, Hogan, then Mitchell, then Carr or Lucien if one of them makes the 53 (with Hogan & Mitchell mostly lining up outside, though)

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Aside from amendola who I think will be a "package" guy, playing only when we spread the field or in conjunction with white, I think it's all of the above, and may be dictated by matchup.

Running a wr from the slot is a means of freeing him up to get open more easily. I suspect we use motion to create the slot and based upon matchups run cooks through the slot routes or hogan or get to that part of the field by running the coverage off with Gronk cooks and hogan and bring a back under.

AndyJohnson said:

Sample size.
in 2015 we played in the playoffs without a RB and with an OL that was barely healthy enough to take the field. You are basing your argument on 2 games

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No I'm not, I took the 2015 #s for the 3 games immediately AFTER Edelman's injury - Buffalo, @Denver, Philadelphia....I'm sure the playoff #s are even worse...I didn't specify in the post, which i should have, but that's where the #s are from...they only played 2 playoff games

FCB02062 said:

No I'm not, I took the 2015 #s for the 3 games immediately AFTER Edelman's injury - Buffalo, @Denver, Philadelphia....I'm sure the playoff #s are even worse...I didn't specify in the post, which i should have, but that's where the #s are from...they only played 2 playoff games

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So you're basically saying that the season is over, then? On to 2018?

FCB02062 said:

No I'm not, I took the 2015 #s for the 3 games immediately AFTER Edelman's injury - Buffalo, @Denver, Philadelphia....I'm sure the playoff #s are even worse...I didn't specify in the post, which i should have, but that's where the #s are from...they only played 2 playoff games

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Why 3 games?