Here's my maybe-prediction.
We will have a drop-off in red zone production, the ratio of 6s to 3s. This is predicated on the loss of Blount, especially early season Blount.
It is quite likely that late-season Blount is the only Blount that exists right now. It is also possible that I am overemphasizing his role in red zone production.
So dredge up this post if it happens, and leave it alone if it doesn't.
Caveat: This doesn't mean the drop-off will be worth the price Blount wants, it doesn't even mean that Blount as presently evaluated would mitigate this drop-off. It only means that there will be a drop-off. If it's because the Blount of early '16 doesn't exist anymore, that's what an actuary might call a charge for the passage of time.
Yes, I think we have a lot of backs that can do a very good job. No, I don't think they've filled the one role Blount filled best, getting 6s instead of 3s. (There might also be some noticeable drop-off in 3rd and short situations.)
Now everybody can name the backs who can do that same thing (pick up short yardage). There's a reason Blount was a 300 carry guy. I think the bruising-power-back reason is one of them.
Another caveat: He's not the best guy ever to play this role either. He was good at it. I think we have a drop-off in goal line and possibly red zone. That is all. Not that Blount must stay, or any other such crap.
In fact, for all I know, Blount does stay somehow. So it's more of a conditional prophecy, like the Hopi prophecies in
koyaanaskatsi.
If Blount is gone, then red-zone/short-yardage efficiency will decrease. Unless it doesn't.
(He said with unalloyed certainty) :/
Oh yeah and derivative stats like TOP might suffer too.
All that said, it's one group of numbers that I think mean a lot, but certainly don't mean death to the franchise. We're stacked. We're replacing what turned into a bell-cow + others with a prospective committee, the usual configuration.
Wow, random thought, and somebody should research this stat: Success of committee vs. bell cow Patriots teams as measured by SB wins. Antowain Smith's carries, Corey Dillon's carries, LaG Blount's carries -- higher or lower than average "committee" numbers? 5 years to dissect there, 5 SB wins. Think about that... every one of those guys was big enough to be a drain on the defense, and of course, we never went PURE bell cow... but the "big guy you have to stay on your toes to tackle b/c an arm tackle ain't doin' it" factor might correlate to SB success... somebody go all stat nerd on this.
If so, with apologies to SNL and Blue Oyster Cult (umlauts omitted...)
"More bell-cow! More bell-cow!"
