Any chance we end up with Butler still?

mosslost · Mar 17, 2017

Edelmania said:
Definitely. If Saints and him cant agree to a deal or Saints and Pats cant agree on compensation.

I think the former is more likely... because I think the Pats and Saints already have that second part of the deal. Even if they do not strike a deal and he signs for the tendered 3.9, I see BB honoring his pact and sending him to SP even at that low price. He would lose a lot of credibility if he stabbed SP in the back.

yopats · Mar 17, 2017

mosslost said:
I think the former is more likely... because I think the Pats and Saints already have that second part of the deal. Even if they do not strike a deal and he signs for the tendered 3.9, I see BB honoring his pact and sending him to SP even at that low price. He would lose a lot of credibility if he stabbed SP in the back.

Not sure about that. Why would the Saints do that when they would have to give up a pick to get a guy who can walk at the end of the year. That doesn't make any sense.

VectorPrime · Mar 17, 2017

There is no chance the Saints try and offer sheet him because they will never give up their #11 pick. Butler leaving will be through a trade after they make a gentlemens' agreement on a deal.

mosslost · Mar 17, 2017

yopats said:
Not sure about that. Why would the Saints do that when they would have to give up a pick to get a guy who can walk at the end of the year. That doesn't make any sense.

Perhaps they have more cap space next year? Good point, I had not thought of that piece. Well, maybe it is not that far fetched that we get him back then!

fgssand · Mar 17, 2017

As much as I love Butler....I really have to question if I want him back for one year or settle for the #32 and be done with it.

We've got Gilmore and I for one think Rowe is better than most think around here, our safeties are deep and we have hopes that either of the Jones boys can make a year one to year two jump also we have Coleman who showed flashes.

So, is one year of Butler better than a #1?? This is a very deep draft for CB's.

fan345 · Mar 17, 2017

mosslost said:
it all depends on the Cooks thing.. if it is part of the Cooks thing then it is about whether you would rather have Butler than Cooks. There is a year difference in how long you the player under control. I don't know.

If Butler was part of the Cooks deal, then it doesn't make the Cooks deal look so good and all the part about BB owning the off-season was over blown.

maineman209 · Mar 17, 2017

yopats said:
Right he get's that $3.9mill and then can break the bank as an UFA like Gilmore and Boyoue. Which would lock him into $30mill+ in guaranteed money if he continues to play at a high level and not get hurt.

That may be the core issue, especially considering that the $3.9M isn't guaranteed at all.

KCSVEN · Mar 17, 2017

maineman209 said:
That may be the core issue, especially considering that the $3.9M isn't guaranteed at all.

The 3.9 Million is guaranteed if he's on the team and if they cut him he will do even better. If he gets seriously injured he goes to injured reserve and gets paid the 3.9 million and if he gets so badly injured he can't play anymore he'll have the huge insurance policy he would be smart to buy with the Super Bowl and incentive bonus he just got that he would then cash in. Not $40 million but would set him up for life.
So I think injury should not be a major concern as he would still be set for life,

yopats · Mar 17, 2017

maineman209 said:
That may be the core issue, especially considering that the $3.9M isn't guaranteed at all.

Zo and Bertrand had a guy on the other day who does the insurance policies for athletes.

$200k would get him a $20m tax free insurance payout if got injured. So he has protection if he wants it. They intimated that Butler doesn't want the insurance. His agent want's him to get it.

maineman209 · Mar 17, 2017

Patstopia said:
I would love him to stay, but he is either dead set on shooting his way out, or his agent is leading him around by his foreskin.

It's really too bad for the Pats either way...unless we get the 11 then it would be just a little less bad!

I don't understand your assumptions, "dead set on shooting his way out, or his agent is leading him around".

After playing at a very high level for 2+ years, Butler apparently doesn't want to play for a year at a non-guaranteed $3.9M and risk getting injured (and I don't blame him even the tiniest little bit). He also apparently thinks that he can do better than whatever the Pats are offering (and we have no empirical knowledge of how much or little that is - just rumors and speculation).

So, his agent is helping him field informal offers from other teams - which is exactly his job.

maineman209 · Mar 17, 2017

KCSVEN said:
The 3.9 Million is guaranteed if he's on the team and if they cut him he will do even better. If he gets seriously injured he goes to injured reserve and gets paid the 3.9 million and if he gets so badly injured he can't play anymore he'll have the huge insurance policy he would be smart to buy with the Super Bowl and incentive bonus he just got that he would then cash in. Not $40 million but would set him up for life.
So I think injury should not be a major concern as he would still be set for life,

"The tender offer is a non-guaranteed one year contract amount based on the compensation level." - direct quote from Miguel at overthecap.

SlowGettingUp · Mar 17, 2017

I think there is some at least reasonable chance he stays. Here's my reasoning:

1. Saints simply not going to give up their high first round pick and pay Butler the sort of money he wants.

2. So then we have a situation where he first signs the tender and then a trade is made with the Saints. Let's assume his fair market value on the open market would be something like $13m a year plus a signing bonus. Belichick gets him for one year for under $4m. So that's maybe a $10m differential the Saints have to pony up in the way of draft picks before the trade is even equal in monetary terms.

3. So what would the Saints have to give up to make the trade worthwhile for the Patriots? Perhaps pick 32 plus a second or third rounder. Are they willing to do that? Who knows.

4. But the key here is that this is not up to Butler himself. This is purely a decision between the Saints and the Pats. Butler is powerless here. Maybe this was already a done deal at the time of the Cooks trade and all we've seen lately is for show. But maybe they are still negotiating (making the Saints' praise of Butler yesterday weird) and things could still go either way.

Mike Lombardi, who has as good an insight into Belichick as anyone, predicts Butler will stay here.

Soul_Survivor88 · Mar 17, 2017

EddardSnow67 · Mar 17, 2017

SlowGettingUp said:
I think there is some at least reasonable chance he stays. Here's my reasoning:

1. Saints simply not going to give up their high first round pick and pay Butler the sort of money he wants.

2. So then we have a situation where he first signs the tender and then a trade is made with the Saints. Let's assume his fair market value on the open market would be something like $13m a year plus a signing bonus. Belichick gets him for one year for under $4m. So that's maybe a $10m differential the Saints have to pony up in the way of draft picks before the trade is even equal in monetary terms.

3. So what would the Saints have to give up to make the trade worthwhile for the Patriots? Perhaps pick 32 plus a second or third rounder. Are they willing to do that? Who knows.

4. But the key here is that this is not up to Butler himself. This is purely a decision between the Saints and the Pats. Butler is powerless here. Maybe this was already a done deal at the time of the Cooks trade and all we've seen lately is for show. But maybe they are still negotiating (making the Saints' praise of Butler yesterday weird) and things could still go either way.

Mike Lombardi, who has as good an insight into Belichick as anyone, predicts Butler will stay here.

It's possible they're praising Butler because they're afraid of how their fanbase will react to giving up the #11 overall and signing him to a big, long term deal and they're trying to mitigate that reaction.

We can only hope!

Geezer Butler · Mar 17, 2017

mosslost said:
I think the former is more likely... because I think the Pats and Saints already have that second part of the deal. Even if they do not strike a deal and he signs for the tendered 3.9, I see BB honoring his pact and sending him to SP even at that low price. He would lose a lot of credibility if he stabbed SP in the back.

None of us really know but I'm personally under the impression that the hand shake deal is "here is our first round pick, if you can get something done financially with Butler we can trade him to you. If not, keep the pick and we will keep Butler under the tender"

I think he is coming back, no way the Saints have anywhere close to the money left that they seem to be asking for. Would have happened already IMO if that was the case.

QuantumMechanic · Mar 17, 2017

SlowGettingUp said:
4. But the key here is that this is not up to Butler himself. This is purely a decision between the Saints and the Pats. Butler is powerless here. Maybe this was already a done deal at the time of the Cooks trade and all we've seen lately is for show. But maybe they are still negotiating (making the Saints' praise of Butler yesterday weird) and things could still go either way.

Butler's not powerless. If he tells NO he won't sign their proposed deal NO won't do the trade because they're not going to give up the #32 for someone who is a UFA after one year. So NO has to satisfy Butler as well as NE.

mosslost · Mar 17, 2017

fan345 said:
If Butler was part of the Cooks deal, then it doesn't make the Cooks deal look so good and all the part about BB owning the off-season was over blown.

it depends. He dumped Collins for a pick only. BB saw something that made him bad for the team. What if BB flat out cut Butler, because there was something he really felt unfortable with.. or wanted to.. but instead he goes out and gets Cooks (a supposedly unhappy camper in NO). Maybe he thinks this guy will be awesome with us, and he is already certain he is not going to deal with Butler, maybe even have to cut him or some ****. Just saying. SOmething nuts like that could be going on.

maineman209 · Mar 17, 2017

SlowGettingUp said:
I think there is some at least reasonable chance he stays. Here's my reasoning:

1. Saints simply not going to give up their high first round pick and pay Butler the sort of money he wants.

2. So then we have a situation where he first signs the tender and then a trade is made with the Saints. Let's assume his fair market value on the open market would be something like $13m a year plus a signing bonus. Belichick gets him for one year for under $4m. So that's maybe a $10m differential the Saints have to pony up in the way of draft picks before the trade is even equal in monetary terms.

3. So what would the Saints have to give up to make the trade worthwhile for the Patriots? Perhaps pick 32 plus a second or third rounder. Are they willing to do that? Who knows.

4. But the key here is that this is not up to Butler himself. This is purely a decision between the Saints and the Pats. Butler is powerless here. Maybe this was already a done deal at the time of the Cooks trade and all we've seen lately is for show. But maybe they are still negotiating (making the Saints' praise of Butler yesterday weird) and things could still go either way.

Agreed, but adding a couple other considerations ..

We're all focused on NOL because the media is focused exclusively on them. But we can't really exclude the possibility that another team has a package ready that both the Pats and Butler find acceptable. The Titans still have about $38M in cap space, their secondary still needs help, and they have the #5 and #18 in the first round (they'd have to give up the #18 in a formal RFA offer sheet transaction).

Also, we don't know what the Pats might think is acceptable compensation. There might be a number of different combinations of picks that could work, possibly even a player (good-but-underused LB, RB, TE, SS ...).

It's not an absolute must, aside from a formal offer sheet transaction, that a deal happens before the draft. There may be a team out there who would wait to see which corners are off the board by the time their pick comes up who could pull the trigger on a trade for Butler during the draft, e.g. Welker and Moss in 2007.

And it's still possible that Butler agrees to an offer from the Pats since all the assumptions that Butler must be pissed/resentful at the Pats are just that - assumptions.

mosslost · Mar 17, 2017

QuantumMechanic said:
Butler's not powerless. If he tells NO he won't sign their proposed deal NO won't do the trade because they're not going to give up the #32 for someone who is a UFA after one year. So NO has to satisfy Butler as well as NE.

there is at least a plausible possibility we have Butler for one year on a song.. it is at least still possible. And it will be a contract year for him if it happened.

mosslost · Mar 17, 2017

Geezer Butler said:
None of us really know but I'm personally under the impression that the hand shake deal is "here is our first round pick, if you can get something done financially with Butler we can trade him to you. If not, keep the pick and we will keep Butler under the tender"

I think he is coming back, no way the Saints have anywhere close to the money left that they seem to be asking for. Would have happened already IMO if that was the case.

This is what I want to happen at this point, not that it matters what i want.

Any chance we end up with Butler still?

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