SB51 Review: Did Malcolm Butler play himself out of a big contract with NE?

NashuaPats · Mar 12, 2017

As others have pointed out, I think the real problem is his amateur agent who doesn't understand how NFL contracts are negotiated. There were talks going back to last summer that he wanted the Patriots to tear up or ignore his RFA season. That's just not how it works.

The Pats put a first round tender on him meaning they have control over him for 3.91 mill. Just for example, lets say that's 4 mill. Now let's say, the Patriots determine he's an $11 million player and offer 4 years. Meanwhile his agent says he's a $12 mill player and wants five years. 4/44 vs 5/60. That's the start of a negotiation.

But the Pats aren't going to ignore RFA status and that they are the ones taking on an injury risk by signing him a year earlier than they need to. In their offer, they are going to subtract from the 11 per year the one season they have the rights to him for 4. That drops the offer from 4/44 to 4/37. Then take off some for their taking on the burden of an injury risk. Let's just say $1 million? That offer is now 4/36 or $9 million per year. Meanwhile, his agent is still sitting at $12 per year.

His agent is telling Butler he's being disrespected while the Patriots say there will not be further negotiations until the agent accepts that the RFA status is taken into account. That would explain why his agent just said there have been no negotiations since last summer and they Patriots say he's asking for too much. The agent doesn't understand how the whole system works and is giving Butler bad advice. Or maybe he's trying to make a name for himself. Either way, Belichick isn't going to give into his demands and Butler has been left out to dry.

patsfan13 · Mar 12, 2017

varjao said:
What are the timelines here? Can a team sign Butler to a contract that the Patriots will not match after the draft, and then the pick we receive is a 2018 first?

Not until he signs the 1st round tender.

PatsBoy12 · Mar 12, 2017

So the Gabriel catch in the SB is what cost Butler his big contract? Lmao

Patriot Missile · Mar 12, 2017

How could he play himself out of a contract when he was a restricted free agent?

Pats didnt have to sign him and knew they were getting fair compensation if someone else did. I think some are reading a little bit more into this then they need too. All this inexperienced agent talk and poor play doesn't add up.

My eyes say Butler is top 10-15 cb with a ceiling of a top 10. They chose to go with the guy that is more like a top 5 or 10 with a ceiling of numero uno. Kind of genious on Bill's part actually, since there now is a possibility they will be playing with both of them next season.

RobertWeathers · Mar 12, 2017

I do think BB is more inclined to keep players that step up in big games than those who don't.

I don't think the contractual situation with Butler is because he had an average SB.

The team and Malcolm got to this point because....

His agent is overmatched
He is not a top 5 CB
He is a RFA

Froob · Mar 12, 2017

You don't make these decisions based off a single game.

PatsFanInVa · Mar 12, 2017

PatsBoy12 said:
Why does that Gabriel play even matter so much? I don't recall him having any other team impact on the game... the one we actually won.

Sort of agree here. One play is one play. Take TFB's worst play and refuse to pay him elite money? No. OTOH, that pick at the end of SB49 was one play too... how consistent was he between those two plays? I think he's done pretty damn well.

But he could parlay SB49 et seq. into bigger money than fits NE's philosophy. That's the business. You can't say he plays badly when the pressure is on though, that's for sure... it's not like "oh he falls apart in big games," it's more like "well you can't say he's the magic man in the biggest games with no exceptions evah." Of course, you can't say that about TFB either. You can't. You can only say it about the big games you prefer to remember, rather than the ones you prefer to forget. And please don't tell me he never did anything wrong, whenever Brady is off it's because of the O Line, etc. Sort of true on any play in the NFL... sort of not. We praise him when he can just step to the side and move the pocket... we don't damn him when he can't do that. We praise him when he can thread a needle and drop in a perfect pass. We happily give him a pass, no pun intended, when he misses one. (Edit - TFB is just better than any other quarterback evah in the biggest games - but the point is, you can't say anybody is "money," in reality. It just feels that way... it stopped feeling that way with TFB for a while when we were ALMOST winning it all. Now it feels like it again.)

The whole point is, I think this has more to do w/what we're willing to pay vs. what the market is likely to provide, as is usually the case for big-name players. There's one name big enough that NE won't part with, and that's TFB - so far (sorry sports fans, nobody wants it but one day and all contract talks have pointed toward him retiring a Patriot... but the nature of the business is that we might yet see him playing in another jersey.)

Now about that play...

I also agree, looking at it in full motion and slow motion, and the screen caps above, that there's no stepping on his foot involved. Taylor Gabriel just executed a head fake and a sick cut, Butler got awwwwwwl messed up, and in a fraction of a second went from covering Gabriel to having the choice of running him over or falling down, basically, because of where Gabriel's plant foot is. He's man on man on Gabriel, he buys the fake and thinks Gabriel is running an out, he gets out of position. The technical term is, he faked his drawers off. Props to Gabriel - he puts his plant foot where Butler can either draw a flag or fall down (unless that would be a flag on Gabriel? I don't think so.)

I don't think that single play tells us a damn thing, except that the other guys get paid too, and Gabriel was better than Butler that play... way better. Sweet combat roll by Butler after he's out of position though.

borg · Mar 12, 2017

Question: If I remember correctly, players on minimum wage contracts used to get bonus $$$ based on % of snaps they played during the season. Is this program still in play or did it end after the last NFLPA/NFL negotiation?

PatsBoy12 · Mar 12, 2017

PatsFanInVa said:
Sort of agree here. One play is one play. Take TFB's worst play and refuse to pay him elite money? No. OTOH, that pick at the end of SB49 was one play too... how consistent was he between those two plays? I think he's done pretty damn well.

But he could parlay SB49 et seq. into bigger money than fits NE's philosophy. That's the business. You can't say he plays badly when the pressure is on though, that's for sure... it's not like "oh he falls apart in big games," it's more like "well you can't say he's the magic man in the biggest games with no exceptions evah." Of course, you can't say that about TFB either. You can't. You can only say it about the big games you prefer to remember, rather than the ones you prefer to forget. And please don't tell me he never did anything wrong, whenever Brady is off it's because of the O Line, etc. Sort of true on any play in the NFL... sort of not. We praise him when he can just step to the side and move the pocket... we don't damn him when he can't do that. We praise him when he can thread a needle and drop in a perfect pass. We happily give him a pass, no pun intended, when he misses one. (Edit - TFB is just better than any other quarterback evah in the biggest games - but the point is, you can't say anybody is "money," in reality. It just feels that way... it stopped feeling that way with TFB for a while when we were ALMOST winning it all. Now it feels like it again.)

The whole point is, I think this has more to do w/what we're willing to pay vs. what the market is likely to provide, as is usually the case for big-name players. There's one name big enough that NE won't part with, and that's TFB - so far (sorry sports fans, nobody wants it but one day and all contract talks have pointed toward him retiring a Patriot... but the nature of the business is that we might yet see him playing in another jersey.)

Now about that play...

I also agree, looking at it in full motion and slow motion, and the screen caps above, that there's no stepping on his foot involved. Taylor Gabriel just executed a head fake and a sick cut, Butler got awwwwwwl messed up, and in a fraction of a second went from covering Gabriel to having the choice of running him over or falling down, basically, because of where Gabriel's plant foot is. He's man on man on Gabriel, he buys the fake and thinks Gabriel is running an out, he gets out of position. The technical term is, he faked his drawers off. Props to Gabriel - he puts his plant foot where Butler can either draw a flag or fall down (unless that would be a flag on Gabriel? I don't think so.)

I don't think that single play tells us a damn thing, except that the other guys get paid too, and Gabriel was better than Butler that play... way better. Sweet combat roll by Butler after he's out of position though.

I hear you, friend. I just don't think BB is capable of looking at anything in a vacuum. Butler is not just SB49 hero. He's actually become a tool top flight corner in the league. I agree that I don't think any feet touched. But I question why it matters? He just about erased Gabriel for the majority of the game. Am I missing something? I don't know. If I'm Caserio, I do not believe that play would stand out to me because I'd be looking at the bigger picture.

ChessToCheckers · Mar 12, 2017

NashuaPats said:
The agent doesn't understand how the whole system works and is giving Butler bad advice. Or maybe he's trying to make a name for himself.

Well, he's not doing a very good job of it, whatever his name is!

maineman209 · Mar 12, 2017

I don't think Butler's size is a particular issue - 5'10"/190 has been about the league average size for better CBs for a couple decades. It's only been the past few years that an increasingly significant percentage of the bigger guys coming out of college have had the athleticism and experience to begin regularly displacing the smaller guys, but bigger guys who are really good are still somewhat in the minority.

To me, what has made Butler elite in coverage is his route knowledge, read/recognition skills and anticipation (IOW, he really, really knows what he's doing out there). Those skills have (so far) way more than offset his lack of natural athleticism/speed/agility (4.62/40, 4.27 shuttle, 7.20 3-cone).

Butler's downside is that he can get burned by quicker, crisper guys like Gabriel. It doesn't always happen. He's been able to cover such guys successfully quite often. But there may be a bigger risk in assigning Butler to such guys.

Since most teams the Pats play typically only have one guy like that (who's also a very good route-running technician), this usually hasn't been a problem. The Pats have simply assigned the more agile Ryan (4.06 shuttle, 6.69 3-cone) or Rowe (4.45/40, 3.97 shuttle, 6.70 3-cone) to that guy.

Pats' schemes are always adjusted to optimize a player's strengths and to avoid exposing his weaknesses as much as possible. Butler's skills have often allowed him to successfully cover/mirror/shadow #1 WRs who are not effective speedsters and not extremely agile, even if they're tall, because those skills typically put him in excellent position to discourage QBs from throwing his way in the first place (a DB's #1 job, IMHO).

The problem in the SB was that both Gabriel and Jones qualified as "quick/crisp" guys (Sanu is no slouch, either). And Matt Ryan is a damn fine QB who can hit all these guys. So the Pats simply didn't have enough quick, crisp guys among CBs to get great physical matchups on every play without McCourty (4.38/40, 4.07 shuttle, 6.70 3-cone) pitching in (which may have left the deep middle exposed on the Aldrick Robinson play).

Now, the Pats have Rowe and Gilmore (4.40/40, 3.94 shuttle, 6.61 3-cone), and then Coleman (4.56/40, 3.98 shuttle, 6.61 3-cone), possibly for the slot where lot of those quick, crisp guys make their living - like Edelman (3.92 shuttle, 6.62 3-cone). For that matter, Gilmore might work into the slot.

While Butler is elite at what he does well, what hurts him is his lack of role versatility, which also limits the coverage schemes that the Pats can reasonably deploy, to some degree. He also hasn't seemed to be as adept at covering the right boundary as Ryan or Rowe (Asante Samuel also had this problem; he was awful at RCB in Philly when they tried to use him over there for awhile).

So, it isn't that Butler's SB performance was "bad", but WHY it was less than desirable. And that's a long term issue since it's the playoff-caliber teams who are the most likely to have enough quick/crisp receivers to be able to create a matchup problem for Butler.

This isn't to say that the Pats should shed Butler, but just to note that he has his limitations and, under certain circumstances, he may be a liability in spite of how good he is otherwise. I have no idea who could replace him, and it seems unlikely that such a guy is currently on the roster. If Butler signs his tender and plays this season, I'm sure the Pat will do just fine with him.

OTOH, in the unlikely event that Butler signs an offer sheet from another team (like the Titans), it's possible that the Pats would be just as happy to take the 1st-round pick, even though they certainly wouldn't be immediately better off. And that depends entirely on their evaluations of the CB prospects that a 1st-round pick might give them access to in this draft.

There's probably a metric crap-tonne of risk/reward, contingency calculations being performed by the Pats' brain trust these days.

Froob · Mar 12, 2017

Unless Jimmy is staying, we can always tag and trade him next off season? Let's get the most value outta him as we can make him play for the 3.9 mill.

everlong · Mar 12, 2017

Butler had his worst game of the season in the SB. Especially at that position it's going to happen and be magnified. Gilmore against the Patriots when Brady played was worse.

I'd still like them to sign him to a deal. Gilmore and Butler would rival any duo in the league. Other than Haynes and Clayborn it would have potential to be the best in franchise history.

jah · Mar 12, 2017

I just love watching the guy play...I don't have any better reasons for wanting him to stay (other than the prospect of him and Gilmore locking guys down for years to come).

yukon cornelius · Mar 12, 2017

if Butler's agent was smart, they'd sign the tender, take the pay raise, play out the season in a role he's better suited to (i look at Butler as a 1b type corner.....maybe a 2+).....he doesn't have to be the man, he'll probably get a few more targets his way, have a chance to make a few more plays.....and parlay a solid season playing with Gilmore into a payday.....

Ring 6 · Mar 12, 2017

Ice_Ice_Brady said:
This post is long, but it has a lot of meat.

I am reminded of SB42, when the Patriots had franchised Asante Samuel and were considering a huge, long-term deal for him. After the game, Jonathan Kraft had some very negative comments about Samuel's performance down the stretch. I think we know the plays he was referring to, so no need to rub salt. The point was, I was surprised that the Patriots management does place a higher value on "big game" performances and does not really see it as more of a random variance as many statisticians do. Before the game, Samuel was a priority. After the game, the Patriots were absolutely through with him.

I've probably watched SB51 game 20 times now, mostly the second half but the first half a few times as well. One thing that stood out to me was that Butler really played a crappy game. He got burned on an ankle breaking deep pass (he actually fell down! on a pretty basic route) in the third quarter and followed that up with a terrible PI penalty on third down that same series, resulting in a Falcons TD to go up 28-3. On that play, it was a huge bail-out penalty, as Matt Ryan was heavily pressured, and Butler committed the PI despite the receiver being short of the first down. Honestly, I can't remember if it was Benjamin or Sanu on these plays, but I believe both of them pretty much burned him multiple times. The gameplan was to take Julio Jones out of the game with Ryan and McCourty; Jones finished 4/4 for 87 yards, but every catch was despite great coverage. In using that strategy, the Patriots counted on Butler to shutdown the Falcons other wideouts, and you'd think an all-pro corner would have at least put up a tough battle. Combined, Sanu and Gabriel were 5/7 for 101 yards. He just looked totally overmatched.

Butler was also bailed out on the turning play of the SB. Several article have broken down the play, and it amounts to this: Falcons WR Aldrick Robinson (who???) had badly beaten Butler up the seam and was open for what could have been the game clinching 70-yard TD...if not for the missed block by Freeman and the split second difference in Hightower's rush, things would have turned out very different, with Butler being the game's clear and undeniable goat. Let's remember that Ryan flirted with a perfect QB rating, and that nearly all of the key plays in by the defense were from the front 7 with opportune sacks at critical junctures, hardly coverage sacks either.

It has been brought up before that the Patriots played a historically weak schedule of passing offenses in 2016. There were not a lot of high scoring teams with multiple receiving threats and a strong quarterback, with Atlanta being far and away the best offense. I am also reminded that the Patriots have had a tremendous, deep secondary with excellent safeties, so it is hard to evaluate any player, from a fan's perspective, without fully understanding the schemes and assignments. Another way of looking at it is this: Butler plays in arguably the league's best defensive scheme (NE or Seattle) with year in, year out consistency in their concepts. Gilmore has had four different coordinators in five years and plays with crappy support, terrible safeties, and an overall mess with Rex Ryan and the turnstile of coaches. Despite that, though Butler has been very good and has outperformed Gilmore in the eyes of many, the gap hasn't been that great. If you flipped the two, maybe the Patriots think these players would have very different production and accolades.

This thread isn't to bash Butler, who in my book is an awesome Patriots, total overachiever, a guy who plays the game with tremendous effort and has improved by miles. He is a great cornerback, and I have assumed since 2015 that he would be locked up long-term as a no-brainer. I love Butler, and if he gets sent packing, it would be a huge sentimental blow to all of us who fell in love with his underdog story and his all-time legendary play in SB49. It would suck as a fan to not see him as a long-term Patriot, but how many times have we heard this story before, only to bow down to Belichick when we realize that winning is infinitely better than sentimental loyalty for a certain name and number.

I am just wondering if the Patriots didn't rate Butler as high as we thought they did, partly due to his lackluster Super Bowl when he was tasked with shutting down very good (but not elite) receivers one-on-one...and further, I wonder if his play in the 2016 season dropped off on film, again considering the overall poor passing offenses we faced. Maybe I'm wrong and Butler will back on a big contract as well...I just think the most likely answer here, considering the trade speculation and the Gilmore contract, is that they don't plan to invest two huge contracts for a CB1 and a CB2 and they've made their choice.

Total unfair bashing.

neuronet · Mar 12, 2017

PF_SU said:
No he didn't. Butler just got juked out. He was losing his balance because of the head fake by Gabriel.

.

He stepped on Butler's foot. The pics you posted aren't the right frames or the right angle. See this thread:

That "ankle breaking" juke on Butler? He stepped on Butler's foot

In particular look at post 5 where I locked in on the relevant frames. I was skeptical at first, too, until I saw that camera angle slowed down. Here's the three frames clearly showing him step on Butler's left foot. It is impossible to see in real-time from the angle shown in the game:

That said, Butler definitely gets burned on go routes when he is covering a fast x-receiver. That's why we don't typically have him cover such people by himself, he needs safety help over the top. He's very good at covering the slot receiver 1 on 1, though. Gabriel was a "no-name", but a no-name that ran a 4.27 40-yard dash on his pro day (wind at his back, but still--Butler has always had trouble with guys with raw top-end speed).

We hashed this crap out quite a bit before the Steelers game:
Do you trust Butler to take on Antonio Brown? And if not, what adjustments do you make in coverage?

PatsFanInVa · Mar 12, 2017

Watch the clip again, then look at your pics again. The actual foot-plant is certainly on turf. You'll see in the center pic of the series you posted that Butler is already withdrawing his foot before what you interpret as contact. You are likely adding to an optical effect with a pro-Butler cognitive bias - I have watched this several times, slo-mo, normal speed, and I have seen the stills. You seem to believe that the above is a slam-dunk. Then why is Butler pulling his foot away before "contact"? Your contention seems to be that his cleat contacted the side of Butler's cleat before it digs into turf - which indeed it does a moment later*. But there is no evidence in the photos above, much less in the videos, that this ever happens. (There's no proof otherwise I suppose, other than what you'd see if you pulled off Butler's cleat and sock right after the play. You'd think he'd be in quite a bit of pain if that were the case, and Gabriel, I think, would be thrown off quite a bit.)

*edit - "which indeed it does a moment later" refers to Gabriel's cleat digging into turf, as opposed to foot.

But thanks, now I'll spend the rest of the day hunting down yet more youtube videos of this play.

neuronet said:
He stepped on Butler's foot. The pics you posted aren't the right frames or the right angle. See this thread:

That "ankle breaking" juke on Butler? He stepped on Butler's foot

In particular look at post 5 where I locked in on the relevant frames. I was skeptical at first, too, until I saw that camera angle slowed down. Here's the three frames clearly showing him step on Butler's left foot. It is impossible to see in real-time from the angle shown in the game:

That said, Butler definitely gets burned on go routes when he is covering a fast x-receiver. That's why we don't typically have him cover such people by himself, he needs safety help over the top. He's very good at covering the slot receiver 1 on 1, though. Gabriel was a "no-name", but a no-name that ran a 4.27 40-yard dash on his pro day (wind at his back, but still--Butler has always had trouble with guys with raw top-end speed).

We hashed this crap out quite a bit before the Steelers game:
Do you trust Butler to take on Antonio Brown? And if not, what adjustments do you make in coverage?

neuronet · Mar 12, 2017

PatsFanInVa said:
Watch the clip again, then look at your pics again. The actual foot-plant is certainly on turf. You'll see in the center pic of the series you posted that Butler is already withdrawing his foot before what you interpret as contact. You are likely adding to an optical effect with a pro-Butler cognitive bias - I have watched this several times, slo-mo, normal speed, and I have seen the stills. You seem to believe that the above is a slam-dunk. Then why is Butler pulling his foot away before "contact"? Your contention seems to be that his cleat contacted the side of Butler's cleat before it digs into turf - which indeed it does a moment later. But there is no evidence in the photos above, much less in the videos, that this ever happens. (There's no proof otherwise I suppose, other than what you'd see if you pulled off Butler's cleat and sock right after the play. You'd think he'd be in quite a bit of pain if that were the case, and Gabriel, I think, would be thrown off quite a bit.)

But thanks, now I'll spend the rest of the day hunting down yet more youtube videos of this play.

It's not bias I am looking at a guy's foot get stepped on, and was skeptical believed the standard story before doing this. Not sure what u think you see in third frame. Center frame he is bringing his foot up, maybe, before it gets stepped on!

PatsBoy12 · Mar 12, 2017

robertweathers said:
I do think BB is more inclined to keep players that step up in big games than those who don't.

I don't think the contractual situation with Butler is because he had an average SB.

The team and Malcolm got to this point because....

His agent is overmatched

He is not a top 5 CB

He is a RFA

This is a great post.

SB51 Review: Did Malcolm Butler play himself out of a big contract with NE?

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