I decided to create a new thread on the JG situation, because I think it's a bit different than trade or not trade. But mods feel free to merge in if warranted. Everyone's so polarized on this now--there's only two options; Brady/JG would NEVER agree to do XYZ; it makes no sense for Pats to pay for both; etc. But I honestly believe the PATS are trying to find a different solution, and will possibly do so unless blown away with immediate draft picks.
So, here's a kind of "can-do" thought experiment that I think is interesting (it's long--advance warning): Suppose there's a PATS brain trust room, and in that room are sitting Bob and Jonathan Kraft, BB and say Josh, TB12 and Jimmy G, their agent Don Yee, and throw in Ernie Adams just for the extra brainpower. In this scenario, they are going to work with a set of assumptions below and try to come up with a possible win-win-win for all parties.
Now make the following assumptions:
Everyone around the table embraces the challenge of the greatest dynasty in the history of football to figure out how to pull off the greatest transition and succession plan in the history of football. This is because they all truly like and respect each other and because they want to try to solve a tough problem. And it's obviously a really tough problem with no easy solutions.
They are willing to balance short term and long term. And no one's going to get everything they want 100%--there will be some give and take and real compromise.
Current owner/coach/QB troika leading the team is Robert/BB/TB. All of those guys has a successor identified and on board right now, and they all share the vision that the next generation can be Jonathan/Josh/Jimmy.
This assumes PATS believe JG is the next TB, a true 10 year franchise QB, and they're not just posturing to trade him. The existing GOAT leadership team wants and are mentally fine with the three J's taking over in a low single digit number of years. And the three J's all love each other as well and want to work with each other for a long time.
Robert is no spring chicken and ideally wants to hand off an ongoing powerhouse to his son, not a disaster. BB doesn't want to coach that much longer and wants a great transition to nextgen to be part of HIS legacy-- grooming Josh, staff, hell even his sons, and pulling off the QB piece brilliantly. Vs Walsh or Lombardi who walked away, Landry got fired before the transition. No Coach/GM has ever pulled this off and Mr NFL history buff BB wants to do it. Now there's the very tricky QB part.
Assume Brady is playing at least two more years. He's said next year is not his last year recently. After that, it's uncertain. That could be it, could be couple more after that, who knows with this guy. But let's assume Brady is open to making doing what's best for the team, not just now but long term, also at least part of his legacy. I know this is a stretch assumption for ultra-competitive, win-now, I'm dying-on-the-field TB. And assume they won't trade TB ever and they all want him to end his career here ideally with more rings. But TB has shown a willingness to trade off some $$ and do what is in the best interest of his beloved PATS.
JG: making this work with Jimmy is hard. His first choice by far is getting paid starting QB money asap and starting for a team, and doing it for as long as possible. Yet, he's fully seen and tasted the PATS system, and would love that to be here. He's open to the possibility of trading off some $ and some time, IF he knows he's going to be in the right situation vs going to a crappy rebuild w new coach/system/culture. Again, he's a competitor and it's a big stretch, but assume it's true and they're all exploring common ground.
So, what might the solution look like, if there was one with all these creative smart football and business minds sitting around together in the bowels of Gillette Stadium?
The only solution I can see is that they all agree now on the following:
- Robert/BB/TB are all stepping down together prior to the 2020 season. So three more years. It could possibly work with 4 more, but three is easier.
- Jonathan/Josh/Jimmy are succeeding them at that point.
- Brady going along with the plan is perhaps the toughest part of this transition. He has to be OK with it and mentally accept it as a defining piece of the end of his PATS legacy. It's part of working with his admired mentors Robert and BB to plan it and pull it off together. He's would have to probably restructure and almost certainly even reduce pay a fair amount in last two years of the cut-over to make it work allowing room for Jimmy's increasing cap hit. That's a big assumption obviously, but he has a lot of $$ already and maybe, just maybe he'd see it as the ultimate $ team sacrifice that he's already noted for. ALso, Brady'd have to be psychologically OK with locking down a career end date in three years now, vs "I'll see how I feel year to year". And his better half might like the certainty of this plan. TB would have to innovate along with BB, JG and Josh how you plan to win the super bowl every year while still planning a smooth transition. For example, the best plan they all cook up could involve Brady willingly sacrificing increasing playing time to JG as 2020 approaches. This could be good for TB's longevity and also great for JG's development and readiness. Yep, I know this planned QB scheme has never worked before. But the PATS are going to be doing something that never has been done before in this ideal scenario, so by definition it's gonna make you think it's really off the wall. Personally, I think they'd all like the challenge of still winning now and building the transition correctly, like a great dynasty or empire or corporate succession plan never before seen in NFL annals. (Remember Red Auerbach made Bill Russell the player coach at the end and the Celts won more championships--and think how radical and brilliant that transition move was at the time, on so many levels...)
- Josh gets a deal to remain as OC and #2, with a very long term extension now through say 2024. He gets paid as some hybrid of OC and head coach immediately but very generous $$, with it jumping to HC pay in 2020. This is outside the salary cap, it's just a cost of transition to the Kraft family. Josh stays off the market because he is guaranteed the PATS head coach job after three more years, and he's willing to make the short term sacrifice because: he knows and likes the owner; he will know he starts with a great QB situation; he will have team continuity; he's patient and smart and will wait for a known situation.
- Jimmy's deal (and his mindset about the $ and time tradeoff) has to be similar to Josh's, but there is the salary cap for players and other team factors. So Jimmy also gets an unprecedented immediate extension and huge offer to stay through 2024. So maybe it's literally like an $80-100MM deal with half guaranteed. Remember, in the assumptions of this scenario, Jimmy 100% IS believed by all the the room to be a franchise QB on close-to-Brady level, just a lot younger and unfortunately just ready 2-3 years too soon. The timing is such that Jimmy gets a very decent bump next year, to maybe $3MM, then like Josh, his pay goes up meaningfully in 2018 and 2019 even though Brady is expected to be the primary starter.
- Jimmy will make meaningful contributions to QB play in real game situations, even playoffs potentially. Remember, as BB said, if you close your eyes you can't sometimes tell the difference in whose running the play or throwing it. I'm not sure exactly what the numbers would have to be but you get the idea. The sum of TB and JG's pay would have to work under the cap in 2018 and 2019. It would surely be measurably higher summed together under this plan. And so in those years they might have to have a younger/cheaper team they're building and competing with in the bridge years, because you would think there has to be a cost to the two QB transition that must be absorbed.
But if this brain trust believes in these assumptions, and is determined to figure out a way to make it work, who else is better suited to pull off the unthinkable?
Thoughts?
