How the brain trust of the greatest football dynasty pulls off the ultimate succession plan

I decided to create a new thread on the JG situation, because I think it's a bit different than trade or not trade. But mods feel free to merge in if warranted. Everyone's so polarized on this now--there's only two options; Brady/JG would NEVER agree to do XYZ; it makes no sense for Pats to pay for both; etc. But I honestly believe the PATS are trying to find a different solution, and will possibly do so unless blown away with immediate draft picks.

So, here's a kind of "can-do" thought experiment that I think is interesting (it's long--advance warning): Suppose there's a PATS brain trust room, and in that room are sitting Bob and Jonathan Kraft, BB and say Josh, TB12 and Jimmy G, their agent Don Yee, and throw in Ernie Adams just for the extra brainpower. In this scenario, they are going to work with a set of assumptions below and try to come up with a possible win-win-win for all parties.

Now make the following assumptions:

Everyone around the table embraces the challenge of the greatest dynasty in the history of football to figure out how to pull off the greatest transition and succession plan in the history of football. This is because they all truly like and respect each other and because they want to try to solve a tough problem. And it's obviously a really tough problem with no easy solutions.

They are willing to balance short term and long term. And no one's going to get everything they want 100%--there will be some give and take and real compromise.

Current owner/coach/QB troika leading the team is Robert/BB/TB. All of those guys has a successor identified and on board right now, and they all share the vision that the next generation can be Jonathan/Josh/Jimmy.

This assumes PATS believe JG is the next TB, a true 10 year franchise QB, and they're not just posturing to trade him. The existing GOAT leadership team wants and are mentally fine with the three J's taking over in a low single digit number of years. And the three J's all love each other as well and want to work with each other for a long time.

Robert is no spring chicken and ideally wants to hand off an ongoing powerhouse to his son, not a disaster. BB doesn't want to coach that much longer and wants a great transition to nextgen to be part of HIS legacy-- grooming Josh, staff, hell even his sons, and pulling off the QB piece brilliantly. Vs Walsh or Lombardi who walked away, Landry got fired before the transition. No Coach/GM has ever pulled this off and Mr NFL history buff BB wants to do it. Now there's the very tricky QB part.

Assume Brady is playing at least two more years. He's said next year is not his last year recently. After that, it's uncertain. That could be it, could be couple more after that, who knows with this guy. But let's assume Brady is open to making doing what's best for the team, not just now but long term, also at least part of his legacy. I know this is a stretch assumption for ultra-competitive, win-now, I'm dying-on-the-field TB. And assume they won't trade TB ever and they all want him to end his career here ideally with more rings. But TB has shown a willingness to trade off some $$ and do what is in the best interest of his beloved PATS.

JG: making this work with Jimmy is hard. His first choice by far is getting paid starting QB money asap and starting for a team, and doing it for as long as possible. Yet, he's fully seen and tasted the PATS system, and would love that to be here. He's open to the possibility of trading off some $ and some time, IF he knows he's going to be in the right situation vs going to a crappy rebuild w new coach/system/culture. Again, he's a competitor and it's a big stretch, but assume it's true and they're all exploring common ground.

So, what might the solution look like, if there was one with all these creative smart football and business minds sitting around together in the bowels of Gillette Stadium?

The only solution I can see is that they all agree now on the following:

- Robert/BB/TB are all stepping down together prior to the 2020 season. So three more years. It could possibly work with 4 more, but three is easier.

- Jonathan/Josh/Jimmy are succeeding them at that point.

- Brady going along with the plan is perhaps the toughest part of this transition. He has to be OK with it and mentally accept it as a defining piece of the end of his PATS legacy. It's part of working with his admired mentors Robert and BB to plan it and pull it off together. He's would have to probably restructure and almost certainly even reduce pay a fair amount in last two years of the cut-over to make it work allowing room for Jimmy's increasing cap hit. That's a big assumption obviously, but he has a lot of $$ already and maybe, just maybe he'd see it as the ultimate $ team sacrifice that he's already noted for. ALso, Brady'd have to be psychologically OK with locking down a career end date in three years now, vs "I'll see how I feel year to year". And his better half might like the certainty of this plan. TB would have to innovate along with BB, JG and Josh how you plan to win the super bowl every year while still planning a smooth transition. For example, the best plan they all cook up could involve Brady willingly sacrificing increasing playing time to JG as 2020 approaches. This could be good for TB's longevity and also great for JG's development and readiness. Yep, I know this planned QB scheme has never worked before. But the PATS are going to be doing something that never has been done before in this ideal scenario, so by definition it's gonna make you think it's really off the wall. Personally, I think they'd all like the challenge of still winning now and building the transition correctly, like a great dynasty or empire or corporate succession plan never before seen in NFL annals. (Remember Red Auerbach made Bill Russell the player coach at the end and the Celts won more championships--and think how radical and brilliant that transition move was at the time, on so many levels...)

- Josh gets a deal to remain as OC and #2, with a very long term extension now through say 2024. He gets paid as some hybrid of OC and head coach immediately but very generous $$, with it jumping to HC pay in 2020. This is outside the salary cap, it's just a cost of transition to the Kraft family. Josh stays off the market because he is guaranteed the PATS head coach job after three more years, and he's willing to make the short term sacrifice because: he knows and likes the owner; he will know he starts with a great QB situation; he will have team continuity; he's patient and smart and will wait for a known situation.

- Jimmy's deal (and his mindset about the $ and time tradeoff) has to be similar to Josh's, but there is the salary cap for players and other team factors. So Jimmy also gets an unprecedented immediate extension and huge offer to stay through 2024. So maybe it's literally like an $80-100MM deal with half guaranteed. Remember, in the assumptions of this scenario, Jimmy 100% IS believed by all the the room to be a franchise QB on close-to-Brady level, just a lot younger and unfortunately just ready 2-3 years too soon. The timing is such that Jimmy gets a very decent bump next year, to maybe $3MM, then like Josh, his pay goes up meaningfully in 2018 and 2019 even though Brady is expected to be the primary starter.

- Jimmy will make meaningful contributions to QB play in real game situations, even playoffs potentially. Remember, as BB said, if you close your eyes you can't sometimes tell the difference in whose running the play or throwing it. I'm not sure exactly what the numbers would have to be but you get the idea. The sum of TB and JG's pay would have to work under the cap in 2018 and 2019. It would surely be measurably higher summed together under this plan. And so in those years they might have to have a younger/cheaper team they're building and competing with in the bridge years, because you would think there has to be a cost to the two QB transition that must be absorbed.

But if this brain trust believes in these assumptions, and is determined to figure out a way to make it work, who else is better suited to pull off the unthinkable?

Thoughts?

I liked the fact that you used paragraphs

Interesting thoughts, but lots of personalities and different people have to be involved to make this right. I'll just sit back and see what happens.

I think Jimmy G is waiting for the Brady circle to introduce him to a model (not the JE11 has been taken care of).

I think it's fairly obvious that we will move on from Jimmy at some point between now and next year. Whether it will be in a trade before this season, during camp, via franchised trade next year or just let him leave as FA nobody knows yet.


What it boils down to is that Garrapollo recently said in an interview with Schefter (?) that he wants to play football. As long as Brady doesn't retire he won't play here. He will not accept a contract that pays him as a backup and BB won't pay him starter money (Osweiler+ territory) while Brady is on the payroll as well.

The timing in this situation as long as Brady stays healthy and doesn't fall of an edge this year will just not work out. If he were another 3 years on a rookie contract the situation would be dramatically different.

luuked--I know that's how you see it and it's pretty black and white to you (and god knows most see it like you). But suppose they all are willing to compromise somewhat, and are thinking long term dynasty acheivement. JG would get a lot of guaranteed money in this scenario and know he work towards being a starter in a great situation.

tl;dr?

it takes a lot of out of the box thinking and suppression of ego, so because of that i don't think it would happen. but i like the attempt.

Poker said:

luuked--I know that's how you see it and it's pretty black and white to you (and god knows most see it like you). But suppose they all are willing to compromise somewhat, and are thinking long term dynasty acheivement. JG would get a lot of guaranteed money in this scenario and know he work towards being a starter in a great situation.

Click to expand...

Jimmy will be getting ancient by then. Jimmy is gone, and you think Tom Brady, after Drew Hensen, etc.. is actually going to do what you describe sharing playing time with JAG. It is ludicrous. Brady is not quitting and the Pats are very unlikely to trade him. Jimmy either gets traded or walks, no way would franchise him, unless Brady shows definite signs of major slow down next year.

Jimmy could still have 10 more years then

Yes Brady might be willing to do it. You need to be open to thinking outside the box here.

In this scenario Jimmy is not franchised and Brady isn't suddenly quitting but he also avoids an ugly ending

That's really a little too long. Can you do a Bullet Point version? But, from what I did manage to read, here are my reactions:

The Krafts and Belichick are going to have to make the toughest decision of their careers, unless Brady suffers a catastrophic injury next year.

Garoppolo knows his career can end in a day. He will either have to be Franchised at around $25 million next year, given a contract worth $60--70 million over four years, with around $50 guaranteed (Osweiler was guaranteed $37...the Chiefs just guaranteed $40 to a Safety) or allowed to cut a deal with another team. There is no reason for him do do otherwise. If he succeeds, he'll negotiate another, bigger contract at the end of that one.

The Krafts are not going to commit to any unproven player for seven years through 2024 as you suggest.

The Krafts are not going to make a five or so year commitment at big money to anyone as HC whose name isn't Belichick. Josh failed once before as HC. One of the hard truths of life is that some people are extraordinary "Number Two's," but not so great as "Number One's." There's only one way, unfortunately, to find out.

There's no reason for Brady to cut any deals that value him at anything less than how he perceives his value. He is the GOAT. He has earned that right. The question is whether others will perceive that value in the same way.

As a said, no way to avoid a tough decision.

Tom Brady is not taking a pay cut so Jimmy g can make more money.
Tom Brady is not going to be "co QB"
Jimmy g is not going to wait 3 years as a backup.
Matt Patricia won't be sticking around if you tell him
McDaniels is the next HC.
Bill belichick isn't consulting with Jimmy g about when he leaves.
None of tb JG BB or Jm care when Kraft hands off control to his kid.

Flaws abound.

Andy, those are all a bunch of absolute assumptions you are making. And normally they apply. But this is not a normal situation and these are not normal people. And things changed with the Schefter news. Think outside the box here...how might a transition work if JG is closer to a hall of famer to be and the brain trust actually all want it to work and arent quite as closed to new possibilities as you suggest?

I love that you laid this out. When I'm stuck in traffic or raking leaves, my mind wanders to trying to figure out this same succession puzzle.

JG is 25 now and will turn 30 in November 2021. He's started two games. He needs to get paid and he needs to be starting somewhere soon. I would think those are his primary requirements. The smooth succession idea, from his perspective, I would guess is a "nice to have" compared to $$ and playing time. Your scenario has him not starting full time until he's 29. What kind of career would that be?

My guess is that JG is a very nice insurance policy for next year when his salary is low, so they keep him for a year unless they get an offer they can't refuse. They can put off the QB decision. A year from now, they reassess. How did Brady look? If TB declines even 10%, Kraft and BB pull the plug and negotiate with JG (assuming they love him). "Thanks, Tom! It's been great; we have another decade to worry about now." But if TB looks like he really does have several more high-quality years in him, they will have to let JG walk and cue up Brissett or the next prospect.

That's my guess.

Teamplay...thanks. And you might well be right. Assuming the Schefter info is correct and JG is here next year, you're right that it's an expensive insurance policy and then unless new material info comes next year he's gone to FA probably unless they can do a modified version of this transition deal then. But BB is not dumb and in some ways that's a harder deal and more awkward to do then vs now.

Poker said:

Andy, those are all a bunch of absolute assumptions you are making. And normally they apply. But this is not a normal situation and these are not normal people. And things changed with the Schefter news. Think outside the box here...how might a transition work if JG is closer to a hall of famer to be and the brain trust actually all want it to work and arent quite as closed to new possibilities as you suggest?

Click to expand...

Yiubare asking numerous people to make sacrifices for the sake of each other.
Why would tom Brady ever agree to cut his pay so his playing time and money can be handed to his backup who absolutely has not earned the right to play ahead of him?
Do you really think Brady will accept being screwed so his backup can get a great deal?
Why would garapollo want to waste 3 of his prime years on the bench.
Youbare telling me he should be happy to sit 6 years on the bench and not play until he is about to turn 29 because it's cool to follow tom Brady?
Frankly he may not even want that pressure.

You are formulating a plan where 6 people turn their careers over to communal bliss.
It is just not going to happen.

I appreciate your effort to tell a story making something that will never happen seem plausible to you but it is a fantasy with no hope whatsoever in the real world.

It sounds like a football version of The Walton's.
Ain't happening.

Andy all those ironclad assumptions you're asserting are more plausible IMO if it's 2012, Brady is 35 not 40, and BB didn't have a QB that apparently he loves who could be the successor soon. That's middlegame conditions. We're not at the transition point yet, but the reality is we're only a few years from the endgame of TB and maybe BB, and in the inflection zone. And Krafts and BBs planning horizon goes beyond three years. And the. I agree the harder part is getting the QBs to willingly go along but Brady might just do it as he he inevitably grows and ages. JG might strongly prefer Pats situation if time and $$ are not ideal but w patience are palatable.

Your first point about these people being required to make sacrifices for the sake of each other in this scenario? That's the dictionary definition of the Patriot Way...just saying

Poker said:

Andy all those ironclad assumptions you're asserting are more plausible IMO if it's 2012, Brady is 35 not 40, and BB didn't have a QB that apparently he loves who could be the successor soon. That's middlegame conditions. We're not at the transition point yet, but the reality is we're only a few years from the endgame of TB and maybe BB, and in the inflection zone. And Krafts and BBs planning horizon goes beyond three years. And the. I agree the harder part is getting the QBs to willingly go along but Brady might just do it as he he inevitably grows and ages. JG might strongly prefer Pats situation if time and $$ are not ideal but w patience are palatable.

Click to expand...

I think we are talking about different Tom Brady's.
I am talking about the one who doesn't want to miss a rep in practice because he is afraid someone will take his job.
The one that is the most competitive player in the league, who will not come out of a game.
The one who wants to play until he is in his mid 40s, and not to play caddy to his backup.

Every single thing you expect Brady to do is 100% inconsistent with who he is.
Every thing you ask Garoppolo to do is 100% inconsistent with any athlete who has any confidence in himself. This is a sport where the average career is 3-4 years and you are asking him, after sitting for 3, going on 4 years, to not take a starting job elsewhere but sit another 2 more years, so finally when he is 29 he can play. For what? So he can be compared to the GOAT, and disliked when he can't live up to the standard?

Your first point about these people being required to make sacrifices for the sake of each other in this scenario? That's the dictionary definition of the Patriot Way...just saying

Click to expand...

That is absolutely NOT the Patriot way. Making sacrifices for the sake of the TEAM is the Patriot way, willingly forfeiting money and playing time to help your backup take your job from you is not.

Raymond said:

It sounds like a football version of The Walton's.
Ain't happening.

Click to expand...

I think my biz school thesis was shorter.

Interesting premise for discussion.

One assumption I don't agree with is the simultaneous transition of all three. Much lower risk and more likely is staggered changes.

For one thing, I'm thinking BB will want to stay for at least two to three years after Brady retires just to prove it was not TB that was the magic ingredient.

I expect RK may not wait very long, there's no reason he couldn't name Jonathan as CEO any time. JK is already President, RK is Chairman and will probably remain as such until he dies or totally retires. So that transition is effectively well underway now, evolving into the future until Robert decides he wants to take it easy.

TB may well end up being handed his walking papers before he's ready to retire voluntarily, perhaps as soon as next year, or the year after. Remember Belichick is famous for cutting players a year too soon instead of a year too late. So...

I'm also expecting Brady may be asked to renegotiate, with the goal for the team to reduce dead money and the cap hit if he gets cut at any time in the future.

Without even requiring the star chamber meeting, next year JAG gets a new long term deal, or perhaps franchised, and Brady is gone in two years.

We will just have to wait and see.