Why the Pats should spend big this year

BobDigital · Feb 22, 2017

Salary cap as we have discovered is not just about what the cap is but what the cap will be and long term big deals have actually been paying off for teams in the NFL over the past 4 or so years on the whole for star players.

It has gone up steadily with a slight lag between 09-13' but since then has gone up 10 million per year about since 13 (123) 14 (133) 15 (143) 16 (155). This year it is expected to be 165. According to articles i have read which factor in contracts with TV and other media it is not stopping.

Projecting the NFL Salary Cap for 2016–20 Seasons - SalaryCapCrunch

We can expect about a 10 million or so increase per year till at least 2020. That is about a 20% increase in the cap over the next 3 years after this one. In simple terms if the Pats sign Hightower for 15M per year by 2020 it is 12M per year in today's cap spending (it means the contract actually becomes less expense). If the Pats have a contract with slight increases that bring from 13M for this year and 15M at the end of a 4-5 year deal his percentage of the teams salary cap actually goes down over the years and not up. Also the longer a player is signed the better for the team in recent history. Most players on their contracts want the big money locked in. If they get that in a long term deal to become the highest paid player this year most don't care that come 2-3 years they are now the 5th or less highest paid.

Many of the best contracts in the NFL where long term deals to prime year big name players that at the time looked big but now just a few years later look like a smart move.

Patrick Peterson makes an average of 14M per year and is locked up till 2021. That is about to look like a steal come the next 2 years.

Another contract about to look pretty good is the McCourty deal. As of now on a per year average he is the 5th highest paid FS in the NFL. True he has some of his most expensive years to come but that deal will only look better in retrospect. Even his big money year in 2019 where he is paid 13 million won't be so bad. Already 1 safety looks primed to make more that year (Mathieu) and expect that number to increase. Also making 13M in 2019 is like making 11M today. Not so crazy.

On the whole I feel like the lesson being learned by the NFL is at least at this time as the cap rises it is the time to have those high paying long term deals with stars and then look back in 2 years and wonder why you thought it would be so painful as you gain 10M in cap space every year for the foreseeable future.

Also the Pats should not wait. This may be the last string of years the cap rises like this. I think we are going to be in for a readjustment period after 2020 not unlike 09'-13' as the rise in cap stalls. Just a guess though but the NFL has reach saturation and it will settle.

Ring 6 · Feb 22, 2017

BobDigital said:
Salary cap as we have discovered is not just about what the cap is but what the cap will be and long term big deals have actually been paying off for teams in the NFL over the past 4 or so years on the whole for star players.

It has gone up steadily with a slight lag between 09-13' but since then has gone up 10 million per year about since 13 (123) 14 (133) 15 (143) 16 (155). This year it is expected to be 165. According to articles i have read which factor in contracts with TV and other media it is not stopping.

Projecting the NFL Salary Cap for 2016–20 Seasons - SalaryCapCrunch

We can expect about a 10 million or so increase per year till at least 2020. That is about a 20% increase in the cap over the next 3 years after this one. In simple terms if the Pats sign Hightower for 15M per year by 2020 it is 12M per year in today's cap spending (it means the contract actually becomes less expense). If the Pats have a contract with slight increases that bring from 13M for this year and 15M at the end of a 4-5 year deal his percentage of the teams salary cap actually goes down over the years and not up. Also the longer a player is signed the better for the team in recent history. Most players on their contracts want the big money locked in. If they get that in a long term deal to become the highest paid player this year most don't care that come 2-3 years they are now the 5th or less highest paid.

Many of the best contracts in the NFL where long term deals to prime year big name players that at the time looked big but now just a few years later look like a smart move.

Patrick Peterson makes an average of 14M per year and is locked up till 2021. That is about to look like a steal come the next 2 years.

Another contract about to look pretty good is the McCourty deal. As of now on a per year average he is the 5th highest paid FS in the NFL. True he has some of his most expensive years to come but that deal will only look better in retrospect. Even his big money year in 2019 where he is paid 13 million won't be so bad. Already 1 safety looks primed to make more that year (Mathieu) and expect that number to increase. Also making 13M in 2019 is like making 11M today. Not so crazy.

On the whole I feel like the lesson being learned by the NFL is at least at this time as the cap rises it is the time to have those high paying long term deals with stars and then look back in 2 years and wonder why you thought it would be so painful as you gain 10M in cap space every year for the foreseeable future.

Also the Pats should not wait. This may be the last string of years the cap rises like this. I think we are going to be in for a readjustment period after 2020 not unlike 09'-13' as the rise in cap stalls. Just a guess though but the NFL has reach saturation and it will settle.

Why would you possibly suggest they change their approach to free agency and the cap? Don't you like the results so far?

BobDigital · Feb 22, 2017

AndyJohnson said:
Why would you possibly suggest they change their approach to free agency and the cap? Don't you like the results so far?

Cause as the situation changes your strategy changes. I am not saying take bad contracts but do what they did for McCourty for Hightower. They moved on their line for McCourty and that served them well and on the whole the contract looks good now.

Also the Pats had to play a bit safer last year due to having almost 20M in dead money. This year they will be unlikely to have 5 as things stand so are more free to spend.

I will point out in 2014 they spent without fairly freely. Then Hernandez and the Mayo contracts ham strung them a bit but are now in the past.

mgteich · Feb 22, 2017

BobDigital said:
Cause as the situation changes your strategy changes. I am not saying take bad contracts but do what they did for McCourty for Hightower. They moved on their line for McCourty and that served them well and on the whole the contract looks good now.

Yes, we should spend big on Hightower.

IMHO, we should also spend "big" on Ryan, Harmon and Bennett.

Ring 6 · Feb 22, 2017

BobDigital said:
Cause as the situation changes your strategy changes. I am not saying take bad contracts but do what they did for McCourty for Hightower. They moved on their line for McCourty and that served them well and on the whole the contract looks good now.

Well your posts suggests that you want them to be big spenders and that long term deals to big name players is now the way to go.
If you meant sign Hightower that's not what I gathered.

By the way a 10 mill increase in the cap spread across your 35 best players (assuming the rest are cheap contract hits) is only 300k per player so it's not like everyone can get huge raises and there are no cap constraints.

I would hope they continue to exercise financial restraint and build a complete team at the expense of fawning over "big name players". If you look back to 2014 and see what happened between them and 2016 you will see the model that worked and it isn't based on spending like a drunken sailor because there is going to be more money tomorrow.
If you want to study that model check out the jets.

Ring 6 · Feb 22, 2017

mgteich said:
Yes, we should spend big on Hightower.

IMHO, we should also spend "big" on Ryan, Harmon and Bennett.

Seems contrary to what the organization does.
By "spend big" on these guys do you mean pay Ryan like a #1 corner since someone else will? Pay Harmon starter money even though he is S3? And pay Bennett like he is 26 and durable like someone will be sucked into?
These are exactly the spots BB fills with inexpensive players. Cb3 TE2 S3 aren't spots I expect to see 7-10 mill a year thrown at.

BobDigital · Feb 22, 2017

AndyJohnson said:
Well your posts suggests that you want them to be big spenders and that long term deals to big name players is now the way to go.
If you meant sign Hightower that's not what I gathered.

By the way a 10 mill increase in the cap spread across your 35 best players (assuming the rest are cheap contract hits) is only 300k per player so it's not like everyone can get huge raises and there are no cap constraints.

I would hope they continue to exercise financial restraint and build a complete team at the expense of fawning over "big name players". If you look back to 2014 and see what happened between them and 2016 you will see the model that worked and it isn't based on spending like a drunken sailor because there is going to be more money tomorrow.
If you want to study that model check out the jets.

I mean Hightower, Butler and maybe move on their line with Ryan.

Also I find it interesting you mention the top 35 players.

By the end of 2016 they had about 120M in cap dollars actually on the field. Their top 10 players made up over half of it (70M). So the cap money is more top heavy than maybe you give credit for. I am not saying take on questionable contracts I am saying don't be afraid to spend an extra few million more over the life on the contract.

Also even given your example I said we should prioritize doing it this year. With long term deals so to be fair you should bring up the 4 year increase we suspect and say 1.2M to the top 35 players. The longer you wait the less sense long term deals make likely. I think this is the last year it is a slam dunk.

doesntmatter1 · Feb 22, 2017

The pats aren't going to change their working fa approach. Also, McCourty is somehow still underrated. He almost singlehandedly wipes out all big plays in the same way that Slater removes the threat from Hester's of the world. Lastly for anyone that mentions Harmon remember he isn't half the tackler McCourty is and that is why he is expendable.

BobDigital · Feb 22, 2017

AndyJohnson said:
Seems contrary to what the organization does.
By "spend big" on these guys do you mean pay Ryan like a #1 corner since someone else will? Pay Harmon starter money even though he is S3? And pay Bennett like he is 26 and durable like someone will be sucked into?
These are exactly the spots BB fills with inexpensive players. Cb3 TE2 S3 aren't spots I expect to see 7-10 mill a year thrown at.

It is a slight departure but not really. They paid big contracts to Mayo, Mankins, Wilfork, Seymour, Gronk, ect... Doing more than 1 per year though is a slight departure but I think that is Partly due to circumstances in the last 2 years with dead money issues.

My post was about big money with long term deals on star players in their prime specifically. I don't think Harmon, Ryan, Bennett qualify for that.

That being said to be fair Ryan is the #2 CB not #3. He played more snaps than Rowe in every playoff game including the super bowl. He left the field in the playoffs for 2 plays against Pitt at the very end. Besides that he was always on the field. Can we stop with saying he is the #3 when clearly he was #2 this year. Rowe BTW played 75% Hou 88% Pitt 65% Atl of the snaps in those games.

I would for sure bring Ryan back for 8M per year on a long term deal. Right now that is low end #1 money but that line will move very quickly in the next 2 years i think. I don't let a proven good player walk over a few extra million in this market. 10M or something yes but if he needs to be paid 2M more per year on average then maybe he is worth so be it. At least you know what you have.

Sheard this year cost you 7M. That was not good value. Why not keep a guy who works well for you for an extra few rather than risk it in FA when the market lets you add an extra 1-2M that you would think a guy is worth without hurting you?

That is what I am saying. Now if someone gets crazy so be it and you can't help it.

varjao · Feb 22, 2017

They need to sign Butler asap, this guy is a top 5 CB.

Keyser Söze · Feb 22, 2017

If we signed Jackson and drafted another TE high. Offense would be a juggernaut.

BobDigital · Feb 22, 2017

varjao said:
They need to sign Butler asap, this guy is a top 5 CB.

They can do both. I think it just depends on if the deal for Ryan is inside the ball park so to speak.

Keyser Söze said:
If we signed Jackson and drafted another TE high. Offense would be a juggernaut.

DeSean Jackson I assume? I wouldn't do that. I think Hogan is a fine deep threat as is and Jackson is such a 1 trick pony and would cost 10M or something. Also doesn't seem like a team first guy.

I don't like the skill position FAs much this year on offense. If I sign some people to the offense I would take Mike Gillslee - RB, Jared Cook - TE, Joe Tretter - C/G. I just see no need to invest in WR at all if they bring back Amendola and maybe Floyd.

PatsBoy12 · Feb 22, 2017

No disrespect intended to the OP, but I feel like we have a thread like this almost every off season because the Pats usually have a lot of cap space. It just seldom, if ever, happens though... maybe in advance of the 2007 and 2014 seasons when we got Thomas and then Revis and Browner, respectively? When else?

Jimke · Feb 22, 2017

The Patriots will have to spend to the limit on their own free agents to avoid having their defense regress badly.

skinnydog · Feb 22, 2017

I don't see the OPs point as being to spend big on the open market, but maybe I'm wrong. I see it more as making more of an effort to take care of their own this year. That would not be a deviation from the BB era, it's just that they don't do it every year. They paid dearly for McCourty and probably could have got him for less if they hadn't waited for so long to pay real money. They gave Gronk a great TE contract that was friendly in terms of structure given his injury history. They paid Hernandez without realizing he was a serial killer. The paid others motioned above, but usually they are paying their own with exceptions being Thomas and Colvin but that was years ago. I'm not sure I see such a need this year. I think they should pay what it takes for Hightower, but after that I don't see and need to overpay and even for Hightower, I'm not sure he is durable enough for the 5 year 60 million or more contract. Ryan is nice, but replaceable in a deep draft for CBs. I think they can get Butler for below market value with a good signing bonus. For a player making at the lower end of the scale it would make sense to pocket a good bonus rather than risk a fee agent year and risk an injury.

Ring 6 · Feb 22, 2017

BobDigital said:
I mean Hightower, Butler and maybe move on their line with Ryan.

Also I find it interesting you mention the top 35 players.

By the end of 2016 they had about 120M in cap dollars actually on the field. Their top 10 players made up over half of it (70M). So the cap money is more top heavy than maybe you give credit for. I am not saying take on questionable contracts I am saying don't be afraid to spend an extra few million more over the life on the contract.

Also even given your example I said we should prioritize doing it this year. With long term deals so to be fair you should bring up the 4 year increase we suspect and say 1.2M to the top 35 players. The longer you wait the less sense long term deals make likely. I think this is the last year it is a slam dunk.

I have completely lost you on what your point is.
First you said go sign long term deals with big name free agents and pay them at the top of their position because in a few years they will only be paid like the top 5.
Now you say sign Hightower, Butler and maybe Ryan.
There is 60 mill of cap space. The question is whether, as you seem to prefer, it gets loaded up on 'big name' long term contracts, or it gets used judiciously and conservatively to build an entire roster.

And now you are saying 'don't be afraid to spend a few more million' above what the organization has used as its basis for the maximum value of a player. That is a departure from the plan.
Its as if you are saying, Hey I just realized the cap is going up, lets abandon our plan and use it like the Jets would.

Ring 6 · Feb 22, 2017

Jimke said:
The Patriots will have to spend to the limit on their own free agents to avoid having their defense regress badly.

Do they? Look at the exodus from the 2014 D and what it was this year with 60% of the snaps leaving.

I think this is the real basis of how this team is built.
We have X resources. (Cap room, draft picks, etc)
Each player has a value that is some portion of X. The trick isn't to run around finding the guys with the highest value and overpaying them. The trick is to place a value on each player that makes them worth more to you than what other teams are getting for that price, and add up a whole bunch of parts that are greater than the sum.

So Hightower is a great player. A leader. Someone who has been a big piece of the success here. Fans look at that as sort of pay him whatever it takes because he can't be replaced. BB looks at it as pay him up to $__ but if he needs more than that the overall value of the roster can be enhanced more by spending it on other pieces.

If Hightower leaves, we will be weaker at LB. Weaker in versatility in the front 7. Weaker in leadership.
But we will use those resources to become better in other ways.
The goal isn't to duplicate the 2016 team, its to replace the losses in some areas with greater gains in others.

Ring 6 · Feb 22, 2017

BobDigital said:
It is a slight departure but not really. They paid big contracts to Mayo, Mankins, Wilfork, Seymour, Gronk, ect... Doing more than 1 per year though is a slight departure but I think that is Partly due to circumstances in the last 2 years with dead money issues.

My post was about big money with long term deals on star players in their prime specifically. I don't think Harmon, Ryan, Bennett qualify for that.

That being said to be fair Ryan is the #2 CB not #3. He played more snaps than Rowe in every playoff game including the super bowl. He left the field in the playoffs for 2 plays against Pitt at the very end. Besides that he was always on the field. Can we stop with saying he is the #3 when clearly he was #2 this year. Rowe BTW played 75% Hou 88% Pitt 65% Atl of the snaps in those games.

I would for sure bring Ryan back for 8M per year on a long term deal. Right now that is low end #1 money but that line will move very quickly in the next 2 years i think. I don't let a proven good player walk over a few extra million in this market. 10M or something yes but if he needs to be paid 2M more per year on average then maybe he is worth so be it. At least you know what you have.

Sheard this year cost you 7M. That was not good value. Why not keep a guy who works well for you for an extra few rather than risk it in FA when the market lets you add an extra 1-2M that you would think a guy is worth without hurting you?

That is what I am saying. Now if someone gets crazy so be it and you can't help it.

Ryan 2/Rowe 3 or Rowe 2/Ryan 3 is pretty much a toss up. But since we almost always play 5 DBs, I consider Ryan the 3 because Rowe plays outside and Ryan plays in the slot. You would replace him with a CB3.
8 mill is crazy money to pay Ryan.

I don't think looking to the guy who was overpaid is a good justification for paying someone else more.

aluminum seats · Feb 22, 2017

$8 million for Ryan sounds insane.

shmessy · Feb 22, 2017

The premise of this thread is too funny.

Jeebus, how many years does it take for people to learn?

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