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Watching all of the conflicting news stories and predictions/opinions about Jimmy G's future has been interesting. But obviously none of us know what will happen, and that includes BB. That's why it's strange to see people claiming we "HAVE" to trade him or keep him. We don't "have" to do anything. And I think the worst thing you can do when facing a big decision is lock yourself into having to do something.
People often overlook that BB got his bachelor's in economics. He has a hard value on pretty much every single player on the roster. Maybe even Brady, or maybe he's the exception. Either way, BB will not feel pressure to do or not do anything. He's looking at this as a rational economic decision based on value.
That value will be based on a lot of different factors. For someone like Jimmy, it's obviously his contract status, but also his ceiling, his current growth, his value to other teams, his value to the current team and a potential Brady injury, factoring in the odds of Brady falling off a cliff like many old QBs.
Remember, Manning won the MVP in 2013 with a record-setting offensive year, played the first half of 2014 similarly, then fell to JAG level. Favre had perhaps his best season since his MVP run with the Vikings, getting to the NFCCG, but his next season would be his last. Brady is in better shape than both, but nobody, including Brady knows what the future holds so BB has to be making some allowance for that in his mind.
However he calculates that, he has a specific value in mind for Jimmy G, and that value has changed every year he's been with us. And that value also means he holds value to us on the roster. So it becomes very simple. Whatever that value is, if some team offers more, BB will pull the trigger. If they don't, he won't. If he's worth a 1st to us because of the high floor he gives us as a backup, his potential to be a Brady replacement, and his ability to win us a few games in a season in case an injury, then BB won't trade him for a 2nd or 3rd just for the sake of trading him. And vice versa, he's not married to Jimmy G, if he gets an outrageous trade, as much as he wants to keep him here and potentially franchise him and keep him another year, if it makes economic sense, he'll do it.
The other part of the equation is the market. For those who trade stocks, they'll know it's impossible to predict what the market will do, because the market is irrational. Everyone looks at a Jimmy G deal in a vacuum, all things being equal, what would be equivalent value? But trades are not done in vacuums, they are reliant on what 31 other teams do, and they are based on a variety of other factors. Everyone agrees Sam Bradford is not worth a 1st rounder, but based on the time of year and the marketplace conditions, his value changed dramatically for one team. And it only takes one team. Even if 30 other teams think it's a stupid deal, if one does it, that's all you need.
We follow this team closely and BB always surprises us with stuff like the Chandler Jones/Jamie Collins trades. How the hell do we know what is going on in Cleveland or San Fran? I doubt those franchises even know yet either, because they have yet to evaluate the upcoming QBs in the draft. That market will also be shaped by other transactions made. If San Fran were to send their 4th rounder to Dallas for Romo, that would potentially impact our leverage. Or if Romo gets cut, then the market may change and move towards Romo or Glennon. If both linger longer, that could drain leverage vs. if they both sign quickly, that could up the desperation level.
So it's fun to make predictions and argue about it, but the reality is that not even BB knows how this will play out. But largely due to his economics background, it's clear that he has not made up his mind one way or another, and he does not feel he has to do one or the other. He has scenarios in mind, and he's probably traded Jimmy G 100 times already and kept him another 100 times. Maybe even in a few, he's traded Brady. Who knows?
Similar to how he handles end of game situational football, he will mentally play out different scenarios and prepare for each one in case it comes up. But he won't know which scenario actually will happen until it plays out.
People often overlook that BB got his bachelor's in economics. He has a hard value on pretty much every single player on the roster. Maybe even Brady, or maybe he's the exception. Either way, BB will not feel pressure to do or not do anything. He's looking at this as a rational economic decision based on value.
That value will be based on a lot of different factors. For someone like Jimmy, it's obviously his contract status, but also his ceiling, his current growth, his value to other teams, his value to the current team and a potential Brady injury, factoring in the odds of Brady falling off a cliff like many old QBs.
Remember, Manning won the MVP in 2013 with a record-setting offensive year, played the first half of 2014 similarly, then fell to JAG level. Favre had perhaps his best season since his MVP run with the Vikings, getting to the NFCCG, but his next season would be his last. Brady is in better shape than both, but nobody, including Brady knows what the future holds so BB has to be making some allowance for that in his mind.
However he calculates that, he has a specific value in mind for Jimmy G, and that value has changed every year he's been with us. And that value also means he holds value to us on the roster. So it becomes very simple. Whatever that value is, if some team offers more, BB will pull the trigger. If they don't, he won't. If he's worth a 1st to us because of the high floor he gives us as a backup, his potential to be a Brady replacement, and his ability to win us a few games in a season in case an injury, then BB won't trade him for a 2nd or 3rd just for the sake of trading him. And vice versa, he's not married to Jimmy G, if he gets an outrageous trade, as much as he wants to keep him here and potentially franchise him and keep him another year, if it makes economic sense, he'll do it.
The other part of the equation is the market. For those who trade stocks, they'll know it's impossible to predict what the market will do, because the market is irrational. Everyone looks at a Jimmy G deal in a vacuum, all things being equal, what would be equivalent value? But trades are not done in vacuums, they are reliant on what 31 other teams do, and they are based on a variety of other factors. Everyone agrees Sam Bradford is not worth a 1st rounder, but based on the time of year and the marketplace conditions, his value changed dramatically for one team. And it only takes one team. Even if 30 other teams think it's a stupid deal, if one does it, that's all you need.
We follow this team closely and BB always surprises us with stuff like the Chandler Jones/Jamie Collins trades. How the hell do we know what is going on in Cleveland or San Fran? I doubt those franchises even know yet either, because they have yet to evaluate the upcoming QBs in the draft. That market will also be shaped by other transactions made. If San Fran were to send their 4th rounder to Dallas for Romo, that would potentially impact our leverage. Or if Romo gets cut, then the market may change and move towards Romo or Glennon. If both linger longer, that could drain leverage vs. if they both sign quickly, that could up the desperation level.
So it's fun to make predictions and argue about it, but the reality is that not even BB knows how this will play out. But largely due to his economics background, it's clear that he has not made up his mind one way or another, and he does not feel he has to do one or the other. He has scenarios in mind, and he's probably traded Jimmy G 100 times already and kept him another 100 times. Maybe even in a few, he's traded Brady. Who knows?
Similar to how he handles end of game situational football, he will mentally play out different scenarios and prepare for each one in case it comes up. But he won't know which scenario actually will happen until it plays out.
