Money piling in on NE

Some pieces of Vegas will be rooting for the Broncos tomorrow:

On Saturday, the Patriots were holding steady as three-point favorites over theDenver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. The money was lopsided on New England.

At Caesars Palace sportsbooks, five times as much money had been wagered on the Patriots compared to the underdog Broncos. At William Hill's Nevada book, 85 percent of the money bet was on New England. The story was the same almost everywhere. Barring a dramatic rush of game-day money on the Broncos, Vegas will be a big Peyton Manning fan on Sunday.

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Article goes on to say that some other books have moved it to NE -3.5 and have seen more balanced action though there are rumors of a 6-figure bet being placed on NE.

(Warning, ESPN link)
Money continues to pile on Patriots in Las Vegas

Get the tinfoil hats prepared...

I teased NE and AZ by 6. I've got NE at +2.5 and AZ +9. I'm honestly surprised to see so much support for NE. I'll be happy to see all these people proven right tomorrow around 6:30.

Not surprising because most people think you will see the Patriots and Broncos from last week, in which case the Patriots would win decisively. I hope that's the case but this is the NFL.

Not good.

I can confirm it was a mid 6 figure bet that came in on the Patriots. And by 6:30 pm Sunday night I'll either be much closer to retirement or declaring bankruptcy first thing Monday morning. ;-)

vuudu said:

Not good.

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What am I missing that this is "not good"?
If a team is in the AFCCG even when not favored at home, they can absolutely win. For sure nothing is guaranteed tomorrow for the Patriots or Denver. But what I, and I suspect the majority of bettors, see is if the Patriots play their A game and Denver plays its A game, the Patriots win. The Patriots A game is superior to Denver's A game.
Of course what level of execution each team plays at will be determined about 19 hours from now....

TheBostonStraggler said:

What am I missing that this is "not good"?

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I assume he is intimating (either seriously or in jest) that since the powers behind the Vegas sportsbooks will lose a bundle if NE wins that there will be shenanigans of some sort to lower the odds of that happening.

vuudu said:

Not good.

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I don't know about you, but a 3 point win is still a win. Seems pretty plausible to me.

Doesn't matter. Remember how much money was put on the Pats in the 2007 SB even with that huge spread?

Vegas is probably gonna rake in huge $$$$$.


Pats are a much better team, but they need to execute instead of being cute---being cute has been their theme this year, which ultimately cost them home field. If the Pats win, I think it's gonna be by double digits. If the game is close in the 4th, I would lean Denver and the refs. Brady has to hit everything and not miss--first quarter is crucial. With this being said, I think this is gonna be a close game. Hopefully some luck bounces our way this time. I feel more confident in this game than the 2013 AFCCG, but less confident than the 2012 AFCCG against Balt. This is a terrifying spot---it's essentially the Bermuda triangle for the Pats

bostonia3333 said:

Vegas is probably gonna rake in huge $$$$$. No way Pats should be favored by that much in DEN.


Pats are a much better team, but they need to execute instead of being cute---being cute has been their theme this year, which ultimately cost them home field. If the Pats win, I think it's gonna be by double digits. If the game is close in the 4th, I would lean Denver and the refs. Brady has to hit everything and not miss--first quarter is crucial. With this being said, I think this is gonna be a close game. Hopefully some luck bounces our way this time I feel more confident in this game than the 2013 AFCCG, but less confident than the 2012 AFCCG against Balt. This is a terrifying spot---it's essentially the Bermuda triangle for the Pats

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Being cute lol, ok mazz

QuantumMechanic said:

I assume he is intimating (either seriously or in jest) that since the powers behind the Vegas sportsbooks will lose a bundle if NE wins that there will be shenanigans of some sort to lower the odds of that happening.

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Or, at a minimum, that the 'smart money' potentially knows something that the rest of us don't, which makes them think that the Broncos will at least cover.

*Bunch of money on New England*
"Oh man this is not good...Denver the underdog!

*Bunch of money on Denver*
" Wow we're ****ed, Denver has the swagger now."

QuantumMechanic said:

I assume he is intimating (either seriously or in jest) that since the powers behind the Vegas sportsbooks will lose a bundle if NE wins that there will be shenanigans of some sort to lower the odds of that happening.

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Ahhh, I wasn't aware that Vegas had that kind of power. So I'm curious, does Vegas threaten to break the legs of Goodell, the individual refs, or BB/TB if one of them doesn't throw the game and make Vegas win??

TheBostonStraggler said:

Ahhh, I wasn't aware that Vegas had that kind of power. So I'm curious, does Vegas threaten to break the legs of Goodell, the individual refs, or BB/TB if one of them doesn't throw the game and make Vegas win??

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For those who dont speak "casino" the reason why this should be disconcerting is that the Casinos would typically start moving the line towards the money with such heavy bidding. When the line doesnt move, or moves very slightly, it should give the public a good idea at where the Casinos (aka. the ones who always win) think the 'smart money' is.

I honestly dont know what inside intel they are basing their decision on, but they arent doing this to be nice. As the line is currently set, it looks like they truly believe that the broncos are going to cover.

If they win outright, they will make a fortune. If you arent a little bit scared right now, you should recalibrate your expectations.

TheBostonStraggler said:

Ahhh, I wasn't aware that Vegas had that kind of power. So I'm curious, does Vegas threaten to break the legs of Goodell, the individual refs, or BB/TB if one of them doesn't throw the game and make Vegas win??

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It just means that they probably set the line too low. The goal is to have an equal amount of money on each side.

Sounds like there's not much faith in Denver by the gambling community. After the Colt's ate their lunch in last season's divisional, it's understandable.

I.M. Fletcher said:

For those who dont speak "casino" the reason why this should be disconcerting is that the Casinos would typically start moving the line towards the money with such heavy bidding. When the line doesnt move, or moves very slightly, it should give the public a good idea at where the Casinos (aka. the ones who always win) think the 'smart money' is.

I honestly dont know what inside intel they are basing their decision on, but they arent doing this to be nice. As the line is currently set, it looks like they truly believe that the broncos are going to cover.

If they win outright, they will make a fortune. If you arent a little bit scared right now, you should recalibrate your expectations.

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SO . . . the fix is in?

hoeilaart said:

I don't know about you, but a 3 point win is still a win. Seems pretty plausible to me.

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Money odds are set at -165 for Patriots and +145 for the Broncos. If a lot of action is being put on us, it means Vegas will stand to lose money. Vegas does not like losing money, their reach is far,.....
I am still hoping for a difference of about 10K to 100K difference in money.
Money odds explanation for those who don't understand why I am saying it is not good.
-165 means that if I bet $165 that the patriots will win, I will win $100.
While if I bet $100 on Denver, I will win $145. At the end of the day, you want the difference to be small for Vegas, to preclude the temptation for any outside influences. I am not accusing anybody of this, just that I know the dangers of betting and what the risk of losing money does to people, powerful and influential people.