Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!! [merged]

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

BelichickFan said:

I don't think he's any better than Antonio Bryant but maybe that's just me. I know Bryant self destructed last year but he still had 733 yards in 14 games. Jackson has to get that before he's even an upgrade over the departed Bryant.

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This is a good point, I hadn't really thought of it that way.

Still, after Seattle last year I'm not getting my hopes up - same situation, weak team in [the same] crap division.

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

I would say as of now..closer to .500 than below.. could be 9-7 and giving Seattle a battle OR could slip fall and be bad again..hard to predict when a team will "get it"....look at the Cards?? They looked like up an dcomers for how many years now?? A few and..they still are not good...WIll be an interesting West

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

PatsSteve1 said:

If he makes the same jump this year then he'll go to average -

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He will be jumps from players or teams aren't always a curve going straight up.

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

BradyManny2344 said:

Still, after Seattle last year I'm not getting my hopes up - same situation, weak team in [the same] crap division.

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Well we've had another team's #1 a few times now without ever quote hitting the jackpot - although we got Warren with the Bledsoe pick and lucked out with Wilfork falling when we had Denver's pick.

Still, never having hit the jackpot yet doesn't mean it won't happen this time I definitely like the Rams and Seahawks more than SF and think Arizona has more upside, though more momentum to gain.

I could see SF surprising (me) and being over .500. But I don't expect it. Again, they were bad last year, 5th worst point differential in the league. They've added more than they've lost but not THAT much more. An improved team may well put them right back around 6-10 or 7-9 because based on point differential they should have been about 5-11 last year.

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

With Alex Smith getting increasingly better - A future all pro RB in Gore and a huge weapon and bullseye in Vernon Davis,plus now they have an all pro corner and did as well in the draft as we did,I do not think its realistic nor is it possible to think SF takes a step backward.

If SF ends up 10-6 and even wins that division its no shocker to me.

Expect a 20th-24th pick in next years draft from San Francisco

No way is the aquired pick anywhere near top 10 - I can guarantee you that unless several key guys on the niners get injured.

Sorry homies,Take off those blue/red/silver glasses and get new regular ones so you can see better,They are mighty foggy now since we aquired SF's 2008pick.

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

PATRIOT64 said:

With Alex Smith getting increasingly better - A future all pro RB in Gore and a huge weapon and bullseye in Vernon Davis,plus now they have an all pro corner and did as well in the draft as we did,I do not think its realistic nor is it possible to think SF takes a step backward.

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Last year :

Detroit had the second pick in the draft with a point differential of -93.

Guess what SF's was ? -114.

They SUCKED. BAD.

Again, they could be better but have a worse record. Easily.

298 points for, 412 points against.

Their average game was a 26-19 loss.

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

BelichickFan said:

Last year :

Detroit had the second pick in the draft with a point differential of -93.

Guess what SF's was ? -114.

They SUCKED. BAD.

Again, they could be better but have a worse record. Easily.

298 points for, 412 points against.

Their average game was a 26-19 loss.

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You could say last year NE had no real true good receivers..This year we have plenty,Does that mean we can be worse?,not likely - Neither do I think SF will be any worse - I expect them as I said 9-7 likely - 10-6 possibly - Anything less than 8-8 I think is not going to happen
SF is alot better than some of those crap teams in the NFC this year and did a hell of a job in the draft and in trades,If SF were in the AFC I think they go 4-12 to 6-10 or something like that but they are not so it is what it is.

The point is,SF has had the second best offseason behind our team (on paper) and if all talent goes as expected they can become a force in the very weak NFC where ANYTHING goes again this year,I even expect Washington to make a huge run at their division.

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

PATRIOT64 said:

You could say last year NE had no real true good receivers..This year we have plenty,Does that mean we can be worse?,not likely - Neither do I think SF will be any worse - I expect them as I said 9-7 likely - 10-6 possibly - Anything less than 8-8 I think is not going to happen
SF is alot better than some of those crap teams in the NFC this year and did a hell of a job in the draft and in trades,If SF were in the AFC I think they go 4-12 to 6-10 or something like that but they are not so it is what it is.

The point is,SF has had the second best offseason behind our team (on paper) and if all talent goes as expected they can become a force in the very weak NFC where ANYTHING goes again this year,I even expect Washington to make a huge run at their division.

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Well I'm just repeating myself now. I don't think Jackson is an upgrade over Bryant. They added Winfield and journeymen. The draft could help, we'll see. Vernon Davis should be better although TE tend to develop slowly.

Again, they were the 4th or 5th worst point differential team last year. I expect that to improve but for their record not to improve. I guess the bottom line is I think they will improve but that their record last year far overstated how good/bad they were. IMO they were a 5-11 team last year so "improved" would get them to 6 or 7 wins. When you factor in the schedule being harder this year I think that's the upper limit.

I'm particularly interested in whether the new Arizona HC can get them turned around - especially if Russ Grimm gets the OL playing decent; if the OL is even average then Arizona will finish ahead of SF. Leinart, James, Fitzgerald, Boldin put the SF guys to shame (although I like the SF RB better than James who's still decent).

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

BelichickFan said:

Well I'm just repeating myself now. I don't think Jackson is an upgrade over Bryant. They added Winfield and journeymen. The draft could help, we'll see. Vernon Davis should be better although TE tend to develop slowly.

Again, they were the 4th or 5th worst point differential team last year. I expect that to improve but for their record not to improve. I guess the bottom line is I think they will improve but that their record last year far overstated how good/bad they were. IMO they were a 5-11 team last year so "improved" would get them to 6 or 7 wins. When you factor in the schedule being harder this year I think that's the upper limit.

I'm particularly interested in whether the new Arizona HC can get them turned around - especially if Russ Grimm gets the OL playing decent; if the OL is even average then Arizona will finish ahead of SF. Leinart, James, Fitzgerald, Boldin put the SF guys to shame (although I like the SF RB better than James who's still decent).

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Personally I think Arizona and San Francisco will become the leaders of that division and finally parity will completely take over the NFC west with the usual leaders dropping to the bottom.

I do think Frank Gore will become a monster running back this year and I would put him in any fantasy league right near the top - If he rushes for 1,800 or more it won't be anything shocking to me,SF should have a great ball hawking offense with additions they made.
IMO San Frans weakness will be defense against the run and on offense I question the offensive line,other than that I think they may have as good a team as any in that pathetic weak 2nd rate conference,Like I said if SF was in the AFC they would get pounded by several of their own division teams - I do think Arizona could be even better if Leinart does not have that sophomore jinx so many QBs have.

As far as the Arizona coach is concerned,I think he will turn around that organization and don't be surprised if you hear Weisenhunts name being considered as Coach of the year,Arizona at least on paper looks to be a team that could progress quickly like New Orleans did last year

Remember Weisenhunt comes from being a coach in one of the best run organizations in not just the NFL but in the entire sports world,The Pittsburgh Steelers organization,although I hate pittsburgh I must say thier owner and FO are wonderful and smart at what they do and how they run and build their team,just a hair below our teams FO and Owner,I would put them second.

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

According to you lot, the NFL season is pointless because everything can be determined before the training camps are even started.

Supposing Gore tears his ACL in the first snap of the season, all your predictions go to ****. New England has 3,000 points to trade down with.

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

James Laurinaitis?

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

I do think Frank Gore will become a monster running back this year and I would put him in any fantasy league right near the top - If he rushes for 1,800 or more it won't be anything shocking to me,SF should have a great ball hawking offense with additions they made.

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If Anything, Frank Gore's monster season was the product of great coaching by Norv Turner. Despite his defiencies as a head coach, Norv is a great offensive coordinator who is known for building up the O-line, the running game, and helping the Quarterback alittle. Look what he did to Emmitt and the Cowboy's O-line in the nineties - absolutelute domination. Frank Gore is a talented back but I don't think he sniffs even 1400 this season.

IMO San Frans weakness will be defense against the run and on offense I question the offensive line,other than that I think they may have as good a team as any in that pathetic weak 2nd rate conference,Like I said if SF was in the AFC they would get pounded by several of their own division teams - I do think Arizona could be even better if Leinart does not have that sophomore jinx so many QBs have.

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San Francisco had made very good moves. They drafted two linebackers who project as 3-4 "monster" linebackers (Harylson and Lawson), they have a jack-of-all-trades in Willis, three legitimate Defensive backs (Harris, Clements and Lewis), a future star at tight end (Davis), and a nice Left Tackle (Staley). However, I look at their d-line, and see that being their down fall. Not having a first round pick hurts them next year. They should have waited to draft Tony Ugoh or someone they could draft some stud D-lineman next year. We all say that Linebackers are the heart of the 3-4 and so on, but with only 3 down lineman, the d-line is more important.

As far as the Arizona coach is concerned,I think he will turn around that organization and don't be surprised if you hear Weisenhunts name being considered as Coach of the year,Arizona at least on paper looks to be a team that could progress quickly like New Orleans did last year

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Yes, I do like Whisenhunt. He brings a "toughness" to the Cards that has been missing from that conference. I expect Dansby and Wilson to finally show their capabilities under his tough defense.

Off topic, I like Dallas also. Wade Philips' defense utilizes two elephant linebackers as well, but for the pass rush. Now that he has Anthony Spencer and Dware, the Boys could have a formidable pass rush in a conference that plays absolutely no defense.

Re: Quiet day so let's look at our 2008 #1 draft choice - SF style!!

EnglishPatriot said:

According to you lot, the NFL season is pointless because everything can be determined before the training camps are even started.

Supposing Gore tears his ACL in the first snap of the season, all your predictions go to ****. New England has 3,000 points to trade down with.

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If you are going to say its too early to predict anything then you might as well say if Brady is injured in training camp and on IR then its likely that the Patriots #1 pick in 2008 would be higher up in the top ten than San Franciscos acquired pick- Correct?.

I found this on footballoutsiders and thought that it might be of interest to people here.

Digging a little deeper, here are a few nuggets left unsaid by this person:

* The average winning % of the teams listed the following year is .451

* The above winning % was not swayed too much by the extremeties. If you drop off the best two and worst two the % is .453

* Only 4 of 18 teams ended up better than 1 game over .500 the next year. And one of those only did it because of a tie. Of the remaining three, none of them were within 40 points of SF's 2006 negative differential.

* One of the three remaining teams was the 1991 Cowboys, who in the previous three drafts had grabbed Irvin, Aikman, Johnston and Smith. Then they added Maryland and Harper as rookies. Obviously hindsight is 20-20, but I think it is asking a lot for Gore, Smith and Davis to all be near that level.

Aside from the the hopes that 4-5 guys on the team ultimately become hall-of-famers, the team that gives SF the most hope is the 2000 NYG. That was a medicore team that parlayed a mediocre division and schedule in a mediocre conference to gain entrance into the SB. What works against this, however, is the fact that the 1999 NY team was the best of the teams sampled, according to point differential. Even then, had they not made the SB, the 2000 NYG would have ended up ahead of the top three teams in draft order. That spot as of today? #28.

Re: 2007 49ers

Looks like it's pro football reference not football outsiders. Regardless, good find and it fits what I've been trying to say over and over. IMO their 7-9 record was overstated and that was before knowing they had the worst point differential of 7-9 teams in NFL history. They may be better but still not make it to 7-9 again.

Regarding Football Outsiders, they had SF ranked as the 4th worst team in the league last year and they were still 4th worst when looking at the weighted rankings of emphasizing the last 8 games.

Re: 2007 49ers

BelichickFan said:

Looks like it's pro football reference not football outsiders. Regardless, good find and it fits what I've been trying to say over and over. IMO their 7-9 record was overstated and that was before knowing they had the worst point differential of 7-9 teams in NFL history. They may be better but still not make it to 7-9 again.

Regarding Football Outsiders, they had SF ranked as the 4th worst team in the league last year and they were still 4th worst when looking at the weighted rankings of emphasizing the last 8 games.

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The link to that site was through footballoutsiders. I just wanted to give credit where credit was due.

Re: 2007 49ers

Yup honestly, I don't think the 9ers will do much this year. I say we get a top 15 pick.

Re: 2007 49ers

Do you think Belioli in the war room have an anticpated ranking of next year's draft order taking into account strength of schedule, division, conference etc.? I bet they do, and I will guarentee you that the 49ers were lower then the other 3 teams that proposed to trade 2008's 1st round pick. And knowing how much value the Patriots put into the draft, I bet they put an incredible amount of time in putting together 2008's "power ranking"s for lack of a better term. I would LOVE to get a hold of something like this, especialluy to see where BB thinks the Jets rank.

Re: 2007 49ers

BHSL2 said:

Yup honestly, I don't think the 9ers will do much this year. I say we get a top 15 pick.

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I disagree... As much as I hate to say it because of growing up a Cowboys fan and hating the 49ers, I think they will be competitive this year... I think they can easily be the surprise team and make the playoffs, granted I would be thrilled if they sucked so we can get a lower 1 rd draft pick, but I think they will be over the .500% mark next year..

Re: 2007 49ers

AirForcePatFan said:

I disagree... As much as I hate to say it because of growing up a Cowboys fan and hating the 49ers, I think they will be competitive this year... I think they can easily be the surprise team and make the playoffs, granted I would be thrilled if they sucked so we can get a lower 1 rd draft pick, but I think they will be over the .500% mark next year..

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The problem with that is.... it wouldn't be a surprise to anyone. I would bet dollars to donuts that the 49ers will be a near consensus "surprise" pick.

That in and of itself is usually the kiss of death.