Brady in the 2015 MVP Race

One thing we should never consider when talking about MVP is stats.

primetime said:

You basically said Cam's not deserving of the MVP, that it's his skin color that's going to win him the award. But it doesn't even make sense, a black man won the award no more than 3 seasons ago, and Cam wouldn't even be the first black QB to win (did Peterson and McNair only win because of "culture?"). Literally nothing about that argument makes sense. Cam was an MVP candidate all year and in the last 4 weeks or so has turned up his play while his competitors fell off. His team has a decent chance of running the table.

Click to expand...

Really? He said Cam was undeserving? Please quote that sentence, I missed that.

TinhWoodhead said:

Assuming the Pats get everybody back and they meet an undefeated Panthers in the SB, who will be the favorite?

Click to expand...

Great question. Rankings right now (subject to change, obviously):

Points offense:
- NE: #3
- Car: #1

Yards offense:
- NE: #3
- Car: #10

Points defense:
- NE: #8
- Car: #4

Yards defense:
- NE: #6
- Car: #3

TOTAL RANKINGS AVERAGES:
- NE: Offense #3, Defense #7 (#5 total average)
- Car: Offense #4.5, Defense #3.5 (#4 total average)

pro-football-reference SRS rating
- NE: 10.3
- Car: 9.4

It would be a heck of a matchup, to be honest. I would suspect that an undefeated Panther team would be a very slight favorite (1 point). But personally, I think a healthy Patriots team is the best in football.

Pessimistic Pete said:

Tom Brady is clearly the MVP of the league right now.

Sadly, the media/league would love nothing more than to give it to Cam Newton instead, for a bunch of reasons.

Tom Brady (12 games)
34 total TDs
6 INTs
3,957 total yards
102.8 QB Rating

Cam Newton (12 games)
32 total TDs
10 INTs
3272 total Yards
93.2 QB Rating

Carson Palmer is also in the running, though I think it will ultimately come down to Brady vs Newton.

What do you guys think it will take for Brady to win the MVP this year?

I think for him to have a chance, the Patriots need to get the #1 seed in the AFC and the Panthers have to drop at least one game.

Click to expand...

I think you're right. I think that it would be hard to deny the award to someone who led his team to an undefeated season, so it would, and probably rightly so, go to Newton if he does that. Under those circumstances, I think the #1 seed in the AFC would help Brady's case but not tip it over the line. Plus, your stats leave out the fact that Newton's also run for almost 500 yards.

If the Panther's lose a contested game and if Brady brings the Pats out on top in the AFC again, then I think it should go to Brady because, absent a true rushing threat like Stewart, Brady would clearly have been more valuable to his team, but I think, under those circumstances, it probably will be a toss up in the minds of the voters and could go either way at that point.

Since he already has two League MVP's and two SB MVP's, has led his team to six SB's along with more AFCCG's than I can count, and has taken home four trophies, I'm not that sure how important this is for Brady at this point. Peyton has 40 or 50 League MVP's, but nobody seriously thinks he is the better QB anymore. The most important thing for Brady would be to take home a fifth trophy. Nobody will remember who the MVP was if he does.

There is precedent for co-MVPs. Just sayin.

Unless they do go 16-0 then I think Cam has to get it.

sb1 said:

There is precedent for co-MVPs. Just sayin.

Click to expand...

Are you sure? I think Manning and McNair got co-MVPs in the year the Patriots beat the Titans and Colts in the postseason.

borg said:

Find me one stat site that has this mystery creation. Equating a passing yard to a rushing yard is as dumb as it gets. Regardless, If Brady doesn't win, you'll just blame Goodell anyone....you got it covered.
Fabricated stats, automatic excuse....Homer Central

Click to expand...

I disagree. The OP was simply demonstrating each QB's total contribution to their respective teams.

You can make an argument for Cam. He has carried his team but has also benefited from one of the, if not the, weakest schedule in the NFL and when comparing him to Brady he has had a relatively much more consistent offensive line.

Brady has had to deal with multiple offensive line injuries and losing his top offensive weapons.

I have no problems if they give it to Cam but I think Brady has been the clear MVP.

Side Note: I couldn't care less about the award or who gets it btw. Brady getting a fifth Lombardy trophy is what will shove Roger's ridiculous create a gate BS right up his ass.

Anyways I understood what the OP was trying to express with his "made up" stat.

1) Peyton Manning

2) Peyton Manning

3) Peyton Manning

Let Cam Newton take it. Let the Panthers deal with the pressure of an undefeated season and an overconfident QB.

16-0 aside Before giving it to Cam the voters should think long and hard about what Cam will do next in his career. If this is the best Cam got and he takes steps backwards in the future it will look awfully silly to give it to Cam over Brady.

Basically if Cam doesn't continue this MVP caliber play for several seasons and you look back at this as kind of a one year wonder then it will look bad that Brady got jipped.

If he can follow this up and play like this for several years then he'll prove he deserved it.

If he does that or goes 16-0 then I am fine but otherwise it should be Tom's.

Vegas has Brady at roughly 25% and Newton at 75%. That seems about right. I think Newton would need to really crap the bed with a few terrible games, while Tom's play going forward isn't as big a factor. The voters are asking themselves right now: is there any reason I should not vote for Newton?

Nordberg said:

Injuries are what is going to cost Brady winning the MVP

Click to expand...

Injuries are why Brady SHOULD win the MVP.

primetime said:

You basically said Cam's not deserving of the MVP, that it's his skin color that's going to win him the award. But it doesn't even make sense, a black man won the award no more than 3 seasons ago, and Cam wouldn't even be the first black QB to win (did Peterson and McNair only win because of "culture?"). Literally nothing about that argument makes sense. Cam was an MVP candidate all year and in the last 4 weeks or so has turned up his play while his competitors fell off. His team has a decent chance of running the table.

Click to expand...

If I had a vote then right now it would go to Cam just based on the fact that the Panthers are undefeated and he's playing lights out recently. Unfortunately injuries to the supporting cast aren't really a factor when it comes to MVP or Brady would have a better chance.

Earlier in the year however Cam was playing pretty average and people were still making ******** reasons for him to be MVP. "Yeah, Tom has better stats but Cam is doing it with more style, inspiring more kids, you want him to be the face of the league and I like the way he plays football" kind of stuff. Basically giving it to Cam because they like him more/what he represents. Most of the players being interviewed were saying that Cam should be the MVP without giving any solid reasons why he should get it over Brady.

Based on that, if the stats are close at all Cam should win the MVP easily. I may be wrong in saying its because he's black (I happen to think there are a lot of people that would prefer a black MVP) but there is definitely a bias towards Cam. It could be because like Bart Scott said they see Brady as 'corn-ball'.

I wasn't trying to be offensive in any way. I just figured the people on here are mature enough to be honest with each other without needing to hide behind the overly PC and SJW mentalities in the regular media.

I'm pretty much convinced Cam will win the MVP, which is fine. He is a deserving candidate. That said I hope the Panthers fall early in the playoffs. Not a big fan of Cam, I'd like to see them humbled.

Patsfan22 said:

Cam wins it. At the moment the Panthers are undefeated and look like staying that way. Even if they don't, Cam would still win because he's never won it before and he's black. He is playing at a MVP level and his story and the 'culture' he is bringing to the league is just too good for voters too pass up even if Brady and Carson threw for 5 TD's every game for the rest of the year.

Click to expand...

What does his skin color have to do with anything? Newton should get the MVP nod for his accomplishments. Not race

Fixit said:

One thing we should never consider when talking about MVP is stats.

Click to expand...

what?

Cam is definitely the frontrunner at this point, it'll take a mini-collapse for him not to win it. And I'm fine with that; I watch most Panthers game, and can honestly say that I think he deserves the MVP. He's been incredible this year.

Patsfan22 said:

If I had a vote then right now it would go to Cam just based on the fact that the Panthers are undefeated and he's playing lights out recently.

Earlier in the year however Cam was playing pretty average and people were still making ******** reasons for him to be MVP. "Yeah, Tom has better stats but Cam is doing it with more style, inspiring more kids, you want him to be the face of the league and I like the way he plays football" kind of stuff. Basically giving it to Cam because they like him more/what he represents. Most of the players being interviewed were saying that Cam should be the MVP without giving any solid reasons why he should get it over Brady.

Based on that, if the stats are close at all Cam should win the MVP easily. I may be wrong in saying its because he's black (I happen to think there are a lot of people that would prefer a black MVP) but there is definitely a bias towards Cam. It could be because like Bart Scott said they see Brady as 'corn-ball'.

I wasn't trying to be offensive in any way. I just figured the people on here are mature enough to be honest with each other without needing to hide behind the overly PC and SJW mentalities in the regular media.

Click to expand...

It's pretty clear why Newton should win the MVP - his stats are great and his team is 13-0, and he's done it all with a supporting cast that makes Brady's look like the 49ers of the 1980s. The only reason you'd bring skin color into this is to downplay his accomplishments, implying that the reason he'd win over Brady is because he's black. An argument which frankly makes little sense given, you know, American history.

I think Cam will win MVP and Brady OPOY.

Here's each QBs contribution to his team's success.


YARDS

Brady (Plays for Yards)
- Passing Yards: 537 for 4,138
- Rushing Yards: 32 for 55
- Sack Yards: 32 for 187
TOTAL: 601 for 4,006 (6.67 yds per play)
Patriots Total: 5,174 yds
Brady's total contribution: 77.4%

Newton (Plays for Yards)
- Passing Yards: 395 for 3,062
- Rushing Yards: 111 for 480
- Sack Yards: 24 for 186
TOTAL: 530 for 3,356 (6.33 yds per play)
Panthers Total: 4,757 yds
Newton's total contribution: 70.5%


POINTS

Brady
- Passing TD: 33
- Rushing TD: 3
TOTAL: 36
Patriots Total: 46
Brady's total contribution: 78.3%

Newton
- Passing TD: 28
- Rushing TD: 7
TOTAL: 35
Panthers Total: 43
Newton's total contribution: 81.4%


TURNOVERS

Brady
- Int: 6
- Fumbles: 2
TOTAL: 8
Patriots Total: 12
Brady's total contribution: 66.7%

Newton
- Int: 10
- Fumbles: 2
TOTAL: 12
Panthers Total: 15
Newton's total contribution: 80.0%

Additional exercise
Based on a study I did a few years ago on turnovers, the field position change on a turnover, when the alternative is a punt, is about 50 yards difference, accounting for returns. So if you take these guys' turnovers x 50, that means that Brady's turnovers have cost his team approximately 400 yards of field position, and Newton has cost his team approximately 600. Subtract these numbers from their totals, and their respective totals are now:

Brady: 3,606
Newton: 2,756

So the fact of the matter is this. Tom Brady has produced more yards than Cam Newton has. He's produced more points than Newton has, even though Newton's team has scored more points overall. Brady has also been a bigger part of his team's production - both in yards gained and in points scored - than has Newton. Brady has done this with many of his best offensive players injured (Gronk, Edelman, LaFell (early), Lewis, Solder, Wendell), while the Panthers have been one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.

I think if Carolina stays unbeaten, and Newton keeps playing well, he'll win the MVP. But the cold, hard facts are that Brady has been a better player, a more efficient player, a more productive player, both in terms of raw numbers, and also in terms of his team's overall production. Brady is the true MVP.