Uh oh, here we go: CBS claims Pats win coin flip at "impossible clip"

Lavictoire · Nov 5, 2015

SVN said:
Send it to cbs sports. They will make a headline out of it.

Come to think of it, it was Bellichick who lobbied for goalpost extensions. That could be hiding the necessary hardware.the goal line cameras he asked for sends necessary tracking info to the system.

Pujo · Nov 5, 2015

Hammer of Thor said:
Folks, sad to say this story is actually picking up steam. I just read it in Boston's Prudential Tower's elevator news service. The headline read, "Another Patriots controversy brewing?"

Very frustrating.

This won't get any traction whatsoever. Most of the stories I've read are along the lines of, "Wouldn't it be ridiculous if the Patriots were accused of cheating for this?" There's no plausible mechanism for cheating on the toss, nobody's going to really run with it beyond having click-baity headlines.

TommyD4207 · Nov 5, 2015

The best part, is that the Patriots lost the toss at home...last week.

ThatllMoveTheChains!!! · Nov 5, 2015

Pujo said:
This won't get any traction whatsoever. Most of the stories I've read are along the lines of, "Wouldn't it be ridiculous if the Patriots were accused of cheating for this?" There's no plausible mechanism for cheating on the toss, nobody's going to really run with it beyond having click-baity headlines.

:still more evidence than deflategate:

Rhodey · Nov 5, 2015

Kdo5 said:
A lot of fans are so deluded that they actually believe the NFL is in Kraft's pocket...after being docked a first, a fourth, and suspending Brady for games over something that doesn't matter, if it even happened.

And all I wanted to do was watch some decent football games and root for my team...didn't expect to get dragged in to the insanity.

Pujo · Nov 5, 2015

ThatllMoveTheChains!!! said:
:still more evidence than deflategate:

There was circumstantial evidence with deflategate like the balls being taken into the bathroom and the "deflator" text, it's just that it was ridiculously short of meeting any reasonable standard of proof. But I wasn't even speaking of evidence, just plausible mechanism. At least with deflategate one can imagine how the Patriots would have cheated had they cheated. Here, unless someone wants to seriously argue magnets, telekinesis, or optical illusions, there's not even an accusation that could be made.

MitchKumstein · Nov 5, 2015

Lavictoire said:
Come to think of it, it was Bellichick who lobbied for goalpost extensions. That could be hiding the necessary hardware.the goal line cameras he asked for sends necessary tracking info to the system.

It was also Belichick who lobbied for the goal line cameras.

And the Patriots are now one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL

Coincidence? I think not

Urgent · Nov 5, 2015

Lavictoire said:
I was watching the Dolphins game in a restaurant in cinncinatti and when ghost kicked the field goal that curved left through the uprights I heard a guy at a table behind me say the patriots had a magnet in the ball and energized the goalposts!

That's what jastremski jams in the balls in the bathroom. Hundreds of tiny magnets.

ThatllMoveTheChains!!! · Nov 5, 2015

Pujo said:
There was circumstantial evidence with deflategate like the balls being taken into the bathroom and the "deflator" text, it's just that it was ridiculously short of meeting any reasonable standard of proof. But I wasn't even speaking of evidence, just plausible mechanism. At least with deflategate one can imagine how the Patriots would have cheated had they cheated. Here, unless someone wants to seriously argue magnets, telekinesis, or optical illusions, there's not even an accusation that could be made.

If you can make an accusation absent evidence that anything happened why not absent an explanation how something happened?

raduray · Nov 5, 2015

Galeb said:
Observation certainly has an effect on reality, but time between instances does not.

The official coin is quantum entangled with another coin that the Patriots have managed to acquire. The Patriots coin came up heads so Belichick knew to call tails at the start of the game.

goheels22002 · Nov 5, 2015

Bruins29 said:
I will watch shows about things - non fiction. Stuff about business or sports. Just cant seem to get into any series.

Try Breaking Bad on NetFlix. Here's a Patriots taste that worked for me in emails to knuckleheads in Baltimore before the 2015 AFCC game.

TheBostonStraggler · Nov 5, 2015

Obviously the invisible gatorade heater technology has progressed. These machines can now alter and manipulate the rate of motion of a spinning coin.

BB is an evil genius...

Palm Beach Pats Fan · Nov 5, 2015

Have you ever played "Yahtzee" and amazingly all five die show the same number on one roll!

Do you say "wow, I'm lucky" or "Hold on there, I cheated!"

Yes, it's unlikely. namely (1/6)^4
or 1 in 1296
or 0.08%

But it can happen and does happen, without cheating.

Rob0729 · Nov 5, 2015

FourierSeries said:
Points 1 and 2 wouldn't affect the probability.

Points 3 and 4 could.

Based on research, the probability would be 51% biased towards whichever side was up when the coin was thrown into the air. Also, if the coin spins in some way, there's as high as an 80% chance that it lands on on the heavier side.

Scenario 2 is unlikely in this case, and in scenario 1 the probability isn't that far off from 50%.

The formula that leads to the probability of 0.0073 is based on a fair coin. In reality, the coin may not be 100% fair due to imperfections, but that's still a pretty close approximation.

The fact that the Pats don't always get to choose is all we need to show that there is no cheating.

Point 1 & 2 absolutely affects probability. The 50-50 coin flip probability is that it will come down either heads or tails. If you are talking the Pats winning the flip and that the 50-50 probability scenario, they must always have either heads or tails all the time. Once they start switching up, it affects that particular probability.

If you flip a coin ten times and you call heads 7 times and tails 3 times, 50-50 probability that you will get five right and five wrong is out the window. It is no longer 50-50.

Oswlek · Nov 5, 2015

Rob0729 said:
Point 1 & 2 absolutely affects probability. The 50-50 coin flip probability is that it will come down either heads or tails. If you are talking the Pats winning the flip and that the 50-50 probability scenario, they must always have either heads or tails all the time. Once they start switching up, it affects that particular probability.

It has no impact, Rob. The only variables that matter are those that either skew results to one side or make each flip more predictable.

Everything you mention may alter the order, but each toss remains 50/50.

Rob0729 · Nov 5, 2015

Pujo said:
None of those are relevant to the odds of the flip. The odds are that a fair coin thrown fairly lands on heads are always 50/50. That doesn't mean that you will have an even number of heads and tails, but over a large number of throws (much larger than 25) you'll be damn close. If you're not just counting heads but instead are counting "successes" (the statistical term), which we'll define as "whatever the Pats called as the coin was thrown", the odds are still 50/50, regardless of whether the Pats called heads, tails, there's wind, rain, etc. Even though those do affect the toss, they're not predictable (given a fair coin and a fair toss) by the team making the call. Obviously if you could perfectly model the dynamics (wind, rain, etc.,) then you could predict the coin toss perfectly, but AFAIK, nobody's managed that, and unknown variables that work symmetrically (i.e., just as likely to cause an otherwise heads-falling coin to become tails as they are to cause a tails-falling coin to become heads) don't affect the odds.

Huh?!? So are you arguing that if you flip a coin 50 times that the odds that it lands heads is 25 times AND if the Pats randomly call heads or tails on those tosses and the odds of the getting it right is 25 times? So so you could not be more wrong.

The 50-50 coin flip is simple variable equation based on minimal variables of one person flipping a coin over and over again and it coming down either heads or tails. Whenever you introduce new variables to an equation, the odds change. Some variables have very minimal effect and others have significant effect on the variables.

Everything in probability is effected by the variables that in the equation. That is why these football game predictor modules play out football games thousands of times because they need to calculate every variable.

TheBostonStraggler · Nov 5, 2015

Pujo said:
This won't get any traction whatsoever. Most of the stories I've read are along the lines of, "Wouldn't it be ridiculous if the Patriots were accused of cheating for this?" There's no plausible mechanism for cheating on the toss, nobody's going to really run with it beyond having click-baity headlines.

You give the average MSM consumer a lot more credit than I.
Headline reads: Patriots coin flip winning percentage is statistically very unlikely.
Average MSM consumer: "It must be cheating. But what does statistically unlikely mean?"

Rob0729 · Nov 5, 2015

Oswlek said:
It has no impact, Rob. The only variables that matter are those that either skew results to one side or make each flip more predictable.

Everything you mention may alter the order, but each toss remains 50/50.

Each toss remains fifty fifty. I never said otherwise. But we are talking about the Pats winning 19 of 25 coin flips in 25 games. The Pats not always having either heads or tails on every flip changes the probability of them only winning half of those 25 flips.

But each coin flip isn't necessarily 50-50 in reality. One side of the coin could be slightly heavier than the other. The way the ref flips the coin could make one side more likely to come up than the other. These variables are probably minor though.

Oswlek · Nov 5, 2015

Rob0729 said:
Each toss remains fifty fifty. I never said otherwise. But we are talking about the Pats winning 19 of 25 coin flips in 25 games. The Pats not always having either heads or tails on every flip changes the probability of them only winning half of those 25 flips.

If each toss remains 50/50 and none of those variables alter NE's ability to predict the outcome, then the odds remain unchanged.

FourierSeries · Nov 5, 2015

Rob0729 said:
Point 1 & 2 absolutely affects probability. The 50-50 coin flip probability is that it will come down either heads or tails. If you are talking the Pats winning the flip and that the 50-50 probability scenario, they must always have either heads or tails all the time. Once they start switching up, it affects that particular probability.

If you flip a coin ten times and you call heads 7 times and tails 3 times, 50-50 probability that you will get five right and five wrong is out the window. It is no longer 50-50.

That's just not right.

It doesn't matter what the Pats or their opponents choose. The probability they win the toss is still 50%.

If they are at home, there are two possible scenarios:

Scenario 1 - opponent chooses heads. Both teams have a 50% chance of winning.
Scenario 2 - opponent chooses tails. Both teams have a 50% chance of winning.

If they are on the road:

Scenario 1 - Pats choose heads. Both teams have a 50% chance of winning.
Scenario 2 - Pats choose tails. Both teams have a 50% chance of winning.

Only one of those scenarios can occur each game.

Uh oh, here we go: CBS claims Pats win coin flip at "impossible clip"

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