Trading out of 1st

GoWesleyan said:

But that's missing the point, Box. It's not just about picking up an extra pick next year.

You don't simply defer the pick for a year (like burying money) you get a return on your investment. Deferring picks is is like investing your money. And since the market is driven by impatient owners and desperate gms/coaches, the market pays handsomely for the loan of draft value. You can make alot of value for your team by deferring the selection to next year.

The payback for the patient team is a damn good one. 91 for a 2 is at absolute worst 91 -> 64 116 points vs 270 points using the old draft chart you more than double your value 91 -> 44 (116 to 460) you quadruple your value. Unless there is a HUGE premium and urgency to picking up players this year you ALWAYS take that deal, IMO.

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AzPatsFan said:

People aren't going to trade up unless THEY have a perceived reason to do so. Of the multiple second rounder teams, give me a plausible reason why they might want a 24 or 28...

Other wise your smoking rope...

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GoWesleyan said:

Box... I don't get what you're saying in the Marquis Hill, Ellis Hobbs sentence.
Is your point that not all 2nd rounders are better than all third rounders? If so, yes, I agree.

I also agree that you would have to look at who's available at #91 before trading into next year. You wouldn't just blindly trade into the next year, you would have to do some thinking first. Yes.

It IS possible that the patriots MIGHT find someone available at 91 that they have graded very high and who they would have been happy to have taken at a much higher position, maybe even the first round. Not likely, but possible.

Your "hair pulling" post led me to believe that you disagree with the idea that <i>all else being equal</i> (in terms of having your favored player drop into your lap serendipitously), it is wise to wait a year and upgrade your pick.

"extra is always nice when considering options, but no more essential than using the pick this year to improve the competition in Training Camp."

I would say that improving your draft positions IS essentail and is a key element to successfully building your team through the draft. It also seems to be a key element of Belioli's draft philosophy. These guys take a longer range view that allows them to forgo the immediatel gratification in exchange for increased leverage in the future. As a result, they get extra draft firepower that helps their chances of choosing contributing players each year.

"The investment argument still requires you to view the draft position as more valuable than the player, players play, I'm not convinced draft picks pay dividends."

It's not like you end up one man short on your roster this year if you don't draft someone in that spot. Someone else will be found. Weather he does better or worse than the guy you could have had is very difficult to say, but it's not like taking more guys at lower rounds doesn't allow you to put extra guys on the field.

Not all drafted players play or contribute positively when they do play. It's always a risk.

What is undeniable, however, is that players drafted higher generally contribute more than those drafted lower and a team has a BETTER chance of getting a contribution to the team out of the people that are picked earlier.

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