Bedard weighs in on Brady extension and how it effects the future

Lots of standard stuff on there, but this caught my eye:

It's now a matter of when, not if, backup quarterback Ryan Mallett will be traded. With little good tape on him, it's going to be tough for the Patriots to get what they want, which, considering he's a third-round pick with two years development invested, would at least be a second-round pick if not a first-rounder. Hard to see a team giving that up at this point. But with a weak quarterback draft class, this is the perfect time;

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I know the idea has been discussed here, but i interesting that Bedard see it as inevitable. Have to think having Hoyer and Cassel available helps.

Interesting that he includes DE in the positions the Pats would target, but doesn't mention safety.

This caught my eye.

The Patriots are expected to be active on the free-agent market at cornerback, receiver and defensive end. Brady's deal gives them a lot more room.

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Assuming this is the case, what does that leave in terms of the draft? Safety, a future Wilfork replacement? Luxury picks like Lattimore?

Admittedly the shortage of WR and CB on the current roster doesn't preclude them still being a need come draft day, even if they are part of FA.

Edit: Forgot Right Tackle.

I don't really see the logic in trading Mallett, especially in a weak QB class.

1) Mallett hasn't played enough to show high value to another team. Please spare me the "Hoyer was worth a 2nd rounder" nonsense. We're not getting a 4th rounder for Mallett as it would stand today.

2) Brady might *gasp* actually get hurt during a season, and we may actually need an experienced backup to step in and carry the team forward. Just because Cassell did OK filling in -- and it was just OK against a weak schedule -- doesn't mean we should assume we've got a Dante at QB coach and can plug in any old tomato can.

3) Who else are we going to replace Mallett with? And what are we going to get in return to make it worth losing Mallett?

In my mind, if Mallett can give the Patriots a shot at winning games, then keep him right where he is until his contract wraps up. If he doesn't want to re-sign at the end, then try to trade for anything or let him loose like Hoyer. If Mallett can't help the Patriots, then we should cut our losses anyways.

Replace Mallett with Cassel or Hoyer, both available

GoWhalers said:

I don't really see the logic in trading Mallett, especially in a weak QB class.

1) Mallett hasn't played enough to show high value to another team. Please spare me the "Hoyer was worth a 2nd rounder" nonsense. We're not getting a 4th rounder for Mallett as it would stand today.

2) Brady might *gasp* actually get hurt during a season, and we may actually need an experienced backup to step in and carry the team forward. Just because Cassell did OK filling in -- and it was just OK against a weak schedule -- doesn't mean we should assume we've got a Dante at QB coach and can plug in any old tomato can.

3) Who else are we going to replace Mallett with? And what are we going to get in return to make it worth losing Mallett?

In my mind, if Mallett can give the Patriots a shot at winning games, then keep him right where he is until his contract wraps up. If he doesn't want to re-sign at the end, then try to trade for anything or let him loose like Hoyer. If Mallett can't help the Patriots, then we should cut our losses anyways.

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Rumor has it that Cassel is going to be released and Alex Smith is going to the Cheifs. I could see Mike Lombardi (Cleveland) giving up a 2nd or 3rd rounder for Mallett. Cassel needs to regroup after getting the crap beat out of him in Kansas City (IMO, due to a poor offensive line). Also, I think Josh could help get Cassel's confidence back.

GoWhalers said:

I don't really see the logic in trading Mallett, especially in a weak QB class.

1) Mallett hasn't played enough to show high value to another team. Please spare me the "Hoyer was worth a 2nd rounder" nonsense. We're not getting a 4th rounder for Mallett as it would stand today.

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First, Hoyer was never worth a 2nd rounder. Cassel was worth a 1st and they got that equivalent with the Cap Savings and the 2nd round pick that they traded to KC.

The problem with your thinking is that Mallett was already better than any of the QBs in this year's draft class when he was drafted. He's got two years under him on one of the best teams in the league so his learning the speed of the game won't be the same as it will be with any of the rookies QBs you draft. Also, it should be noted that there was less footage on Brett Favre than there is on Mallett.

GoWhalers said:

2) Brady might *gasp* actually get hurt during a season, and we may actually need an experienced backup to step in and carry the team forward. Just because Cassell did OK filling in -- and it was just OK against a weak schedule -- doesn't mean we should assume we've got a Dante at QB coach and can plug in any old tomato can.

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That is why people are mentioning Cassel and Hoyer coming back. And Cassel did more than OK. He did damn well. How else do you think that the Pats were able to get a 2nd rounder for him. Not for his good looks, that's for sure. Also, McDaniels was Cassel's QB coach when Cassel was the starting QB in 2008.

GoWhalers said:

3) Who else are we going to replace Mallett with? And what are we going to get in return to make it worth losing Mallett?

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There is a guy by the name of Mike Kafka that the Pats signed to a future's contract. Kafka actually has experience in the league with the Eagles. He was let go by them because of their situation with Nick Foles and Michael Vick.

GoWhalers said:

In my mind, if Mallett can give the Patriots a shot at winning games, then keep him right where he is until his contract wraps up. If he doesn't want to re-sign at the end, then try to trade for anything or let him loose like Hoyer. If Mallett can't help the Patriots, then we should cut our losses anyways.

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So, in your mind, they should not bother trying to get anything for him before his contract is up at the end of 2014. Nor should they try and put him on a team where he might be able to reach or exceed his potential by getting starting reps. You've never heard of buy low and sell HIGH have you?

BTW, once Mallett's contract is up, he can't be traded unless the Pats put the franchise tag on him.

grux said:

Rumor has it that Cassel is going to be released and Alex Smith is going to the Cheifs. I could see Mike Lombardi (Cleveland) giving up a 2nd or 3rd rounder for Mallett. Cassel needs to regroup after getting the crap beat out of him in Kansas City (IMO, due to a poor offensive line). Also, I think Josh could help get Cassel's confidence back.

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Don't be so sure about Mallett to Cleveland. Their new OC likes the WCO. Something that Mallett would not be effective in.

IF the Pats are going to trade Mallett, they need to do it before Alex Smith is traded so that trade doesn't set the market value. The problem, currently, is that, besides Alex Smith, Nick Foles is supposedly on the trading block. Personally, I'd try and send Mallett to Arizona, Oakland, or Buffalo, though Buffalo might still be smarting from having traded a 1st for Bledsoe.

I do agree with you that Cassel needs time to rebuild his psyche and that Josh and Tom should be able to do that since Cassel excelled under Josh in 2008.

GoWhalers said:

We're not getting a 4th rounder for Mallett as it would stand today.

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Says who? If you were a GM what would you rather do - gamble a first on Gino Smith or a 2nd 3rd or 4th rounder on Mallet who is a better prospect and has had 2 years of NFL coaching?

GoWhalers said:

I don't really see the logic in trading Mallett, especially in a weak QB class.

1) Mallett hasn't played enough to show high value to another team. Please spare me the "Hoyer was worth a 2nd rounder" nonsense. We're not getting a 4th rounder for Mallett as it would stand today.

2) Brady might *gasp* actually get hurt during a season, and we may actually need an experienced backup to step in and carry the team forward. Just because Cassell did OK filling in -- and it was just OK against a weak schedule -- doesn't mean we should assume we've got a Dante at QB coach and can plug in any old tomato can.

3) Who else are we going to replace Mallett with? And what are we going to get in return to make it worth losing Mallett?

In my mind, if Mallett can give the Patriots a shot at winning games, then keep him right where he is until his contract wraps up. If he doesn't want to re-sign at the end, then try to trade for anything or let him loose like Hoyer. If Mallett can't help the Patriots, then we should cut our losses anyways.

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You have to look at in different terms. For example say Gronk is in this years draft and you trade Mallett to whoever and get a 2nd round pick and the Pats draft Gronk, who helps you win? Mallett standing on the sidelines or Gronk setting records?

Maybe they draft the next Boldin, Branch, or Torey Smith with that pick that helps you win.

PatsWickedPissah said:

Replace Mallett with Cassel or Hoyer, both available

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Or Khafta who is already on the roster could be a fit.

kurtinelson said:

Says who? If you were a GM what would you rather do - gamble a first on Gino Smith or a 2nd 3rd or 4th rounder on Mallet who is a better prospect and has had 2 years of NFL coaching?

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There are still at least 6 NFL caliber QB's in the draft, and there will be teams who are willing to take one of them in the 3rd/4th round for good value. It doesn't mean they are suddenly forced into parting with a 2nd round pick as compensation.

If they were suddenly forced into parting with a 2nd rd pick, I would assume that any GM would much rather give that pick up for any number of guys including Alex Smith, Matt Flynn, and even Nick Foles, who all have NFL experience and all are going to hit the market at some point this offseason, much quicker than they would someone like Ryan Mallett.

PATS68 said:

You have to look at in different terms. For example say Gronk is in this years draft and you trade Mallett to whoever and get a 2nd round pick and the Pats draft Gronk, who helps you win? Mallett standing on the sidelines or Gronk setting records?

Maybe they draft the next Boldin, Branch, or Torey Smith with that pick that helps you win.

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Sure, it could be anyone of the superstar players you list. It also could be a Ron Brace, a Darius Butler, or a Pat Chung just the same--all of whom were 2nd round picks themselves.

The success rate of a 2nd round pick is supposedly around 50/50.

GoWhalers said:

I don't really see the logic in trading Mallett, especially in a weak QB class.

1) Mallett hasn't played enough to show high value to another team. Please spare me the "Hoyer was worth a 2nd rounder" nonsense. We're not getting a 4th rounder for Mallett as it would stand today.

2) Brady might *gasp* actually get hurt during a season, and we may actually need an experienced backup to step in and carry the team forward. Just because Cassell did OK filling in -- and it was just OK against a weak schedule -- doesn't mean we should assume we've got a Dante at QB coach and can plug in any old tomato can.

3) Who else are we going to replace Mallett with? And what are we going to get in return to make it worth losing Mallett?

In my mind, if Mallett can give the Patriots a shot at winning games, then keep him right where he is until his contract wraps up. If he doesn't want to re-sign at the end, then try to trade for anything or let him loose like Hoyer. If Mallett can't help the Patriots, then we should cut our losses anyways.

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I don't think Mallett demands a 2nd round pick in compensation either, but many here love to speculate on this issue so it isn't going to change. The fact that Bedard wrote this story is going to solidify that position, as about 5 different threads are going to suddenly pop up today and tomorrow.

I'd part with him for a 3rd/4th for sure, but I kind of doubt that someone as smart as Belichick is holding out too much hope that someone is going to call him up and give up a 2nd round pick for a guy with no tape to watch and no NFL experience whatsoever. I would think a 3rd/4th is much more likely, if that. Just my opinion. Last year there was a QB/swiss army knife player who had a ton of popularity and led his team to a divison title and a huge upset in the wild-card round who only brought a 4th + a 6th in value, and he had NFL experience and could be used in a variety of ways. Of course his throwing ability came into question, so you have to take that into account, but there was a popular belief that the offense could be tailored around his strengths. Many fan instances of NFL trades are severly overvalued in my opinion.

As far as having other options as a backup, I think there are other options. It could be that Mallett just isn't developing as much as they expected him to. I can tell you one thing---I'd much rather have Brian Hoyer return before I'd want to see Cassel in a Pats uniform again. Whatever he had is now gone, along with his self-esteem, which matters a lot in this game. Again, just my personal thought. I'd have no problem bringing back Hoyer and letting he and Kafka compete for the backup role if a team was willing to part with a 3rd/4th for the 2013 draft.

GoWhalers said:

I don't really see the logic in trading Mallett, especially in a weak QB class.

1) Mallett hasn't played enough to show high value to another team. Please spare me the "Hoyer was worth a 2nd rounder" nonsense. We're not getting a 4th rounder for Mallett as it would stand today.

2) Brady might *gasp* actually get hurt during a season, and we may actually need an experienced backup to step in and carry the team forward. Just because Cassell did OK filling in -- and it was just OK against a weak schedule -- doesn't mean we should assume we've got a Dante at QB coach and can plug in any old tomato can.

3) Who else are we going to replace Mallett with? And what are we going to get in return to make it worth losing Mallett?

In my mind, if Mallett can give the Patriots a shot at winning games, then keep him right where he is until his contract wraps up. If he doesn't want to re-sign at the end, then try to trade for anything or let him loose like Hoyer. If Mallett can't help the Patriots, then we should cut our losses anyways.

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Ignoring the talent level of Mallett.....

Brady's not going anywhere for the next 5 years.
Mallett has a contract that ends after 2014, and isn't going to re-sign if he thinks he's a starter.
Brian Hoyer and Matt Cassel should be available for the veteran backup role.
The Patriots don't need a lot of picks, but they need "playmakers".
The Patriots don't have picks in rounds 4,5,6
Getting a pick in this year's draft, even a low pick, gives the Patriots the ammo to move up.

In short, the smart play, IMO, is to trade Mallett, regardless of his talent level.

Sure, it could be anyone of the superstar players you list. It also could be a Ron Brace, a Darius Butler, or a Pat Chung just the same--all of whom were 2nd round picks themselves.

The success rate of a 2nd round pick is supposedly around 50/50.[/QUOTE]

Even these players you named have actually played in an NFL game. I think you would have to agree that the drafts the last few years have gotten much better. That SEC scout must have a little bit more say in the room I am guessing.

Deus Irae said:

Ignoring the talent level of Mallett.....

Brady's not going anywhere for the next 5 years.
Mallett has a contract that ends after 2014, and isn't going to re-sign if he thinks he's a starter.
Brian Hoyer and Matt Cassel should be available for the veteran backup role.
The Patriots don't need a lot of picks, but they need "playmakers".
The Patriots don't have picks in rounds 4,5,6
Getting a pick in this year's draft, even a low pick, gives the Patriots the ammo to move up.

In short, the smart play, IMO, is to trade Mallett, regardless of his talent level.

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For example 4th now is decent value because of its potential trade up value in a draft where there are many opportunities for quality players at positions of need. Mallett provided a couple years backup services that make the drop from 3rd when he was picked because BB felt there weren't any compelling alternative prospects at other positions rationalizable.

supafly said:

Sure, it could be anyone of the superstar players you list. It also could be a Ron Brace, a Darius Butler, or a Pat Chung just the same--all of whom were 2nd round picks themselves.

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Or a Bethel Johnson, a Marquise Hill, a Tyrone Wheatley, a Jermaine Cunningham,
a Glas-IR Dowling, a Tavon Wilson...

Now you've gone and made me all depressed.

BTW, if Bill can't get a 2nd-rounder for Mallett, then I say keep him.

captain stone said:

Or a Bethel Johnson, a Marquise Hill, a Tyrone Wheatley, a Jermaine Cunningham,
a Glas-IR Dowling, a Tavon Wilson...

Now you've gone and made me all depressed.

BTW, if Bill can't get a 2nd-rounder for Mallett, then I say keep him.

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For what? He's not the future, that was settled today. In two years he's worth zilch and he's gone anyway. May never be worth more than he is today, whatever that may be. We don't even know if he's a competent backup. He's certainly not a guy with a similar skillset to Brady. And he's taking up a valuable roster spot that could be used on a guy you know has a similar skillset or even a guy whose proven he can run this offense - just for openers. For all we know Kafka might chase him off the roster in camp. Some guys get a little jiggy when they know the writing is on the wall.

MoLewisrocks said:

For what? He's not the future, that was settled today. In two years he's worth zilch and he's gone anyway. May never be worth more than he is today, whatever that may be. We don't even know if he's a competent backup. He's certainly not a guy with a similar skillset to Brady. And he's taking up a valuable roster spot that could be used on a guy you know has a similar skillset or even a guy whose proven he can run this offense - just for openers. For all we know Kafka might chase him off the roster in camp. Some guys get a little jiggy when they know the writing is on the wall.

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I don't get the point of trading Mallett unless he's part of a draft move up to get a pass rusher or DB in the first round. Otherwise, let the Kafka/Mallett competition unfold.