The Defense: Eye test vs. the Numbers

JJDChE · Jan 17, 2013

Random facts:

Only Baltimore (21), Buffalo (24) and SF (31), put up more than 17 against us in the first 3 quarters of a game. The Colts managed 17, but after that, the other 13 opponents came into the 4th with 14 points or less.

Last year we allowed 21.1 ppg in the final 9 contests, week 12 through the SB, but allowed over 20 pts in 8 of those 9 games. This year we are allowing 19.1 ppg since week 12, but have allowed 19 or less points in 5 of those 7 games. See, stats are funny, eh?

JJDChE · Jan 17, 2013

mayoclinic said:
That's clearly one. Some recent games:

- Houston (playoffs): 4-15 (27%)
- Miami: 5-13 (38%)
- Jacksonville: 4-15 (27%)
- San Francisco: 5-14 (36%)
- Houston: 4-14 (29%)
- Miami: 3-13 (23%)
- New York: 3-10 (30%)
- Indianapolis: 8-14 (57%)

That's pretty dramatic, when you consider some of our recent 3rd down woes. That works out to 36-108 (33%), which would have ranked in the top 5 of the NFL if projected over the full 16 games. And that number was skewed by the Indy game, which was Talib's first game.

Not only does it skew the number, if you start at the New York game the conversion rate over the last 7 games is only 29.8%, which would equate to #1 in the NFL.

That's exactly what my eyes are telling me.

Kinda interesting that even in the 41 point egg against the 9ers, we still only let up 5-14 on 3rd.

jmt57 · Jan 17, 2013

I haven't looked up the stats to see if this is correct, but does the Pats up-tempo offense result in more plays, more drives, and more opportunities for opposing offenses? If so, then that would skew statistical rankings.

If for example most teams have 10 possessions and 70 snaps per game, but up-tempo offenses such as the Pats cause the average to increase to 12 possessions and 85 snaps per game, then would it not stand to reason that the stats for the New England defense would be higher than the stats for the 31 other defenses?

Conversely if an offense tends to run the ball more often (causing the clock to continue to run), then wouldn't that slower tempo game result in fewer snaps and possessions, and therefore fewer yards and points?

Ring 6 · Jan 17, 2013

patsfanincleveland said:
The problem revolves around the utilization of statistics.

Look at last Sunday. A 28 point, 425 yard surrender would statistically indicate "poor" defense. What did your eyes tell you?

The reality is Houston entered Q4 with a 38-13 deficit and 269 yards.

That prorates to 17 points and 358 yards. All 13 points were of short fields.

The final 15 minutes of "garbage time" was 15 points 156 yards. That prorates to 60 points and 624 yards.

Your stats don't care when yards or points were scored.

the defense was EXCELLENT last week.
When Vereen caught the TD pass (the one where BB looked up then went back to telling the defense how to improve) it made the score 38-13 with I think 9 minutes left. We all know the game was over right there.
That is 13 points including a drive starting at the +8 after a 90 yard KR, another at about the +35 after a 60 yard KR + penalty, and a 3rd that started near midfield after a shanked punt.
I don't care what stats say, the defense last Sunday was Championship caliber, and if it plays like that the next 2 games we will be SB Champs with 2 easy wins.

Danger Zone · Jan 17, 2013

I am NOT a Xs and Os kind of fan.

That said, would it be worth taking into consideration how well our defense is playing -the fact that a lot of the points being scored against us are garbage-time/down by several touchdowns kind of points?

Our defense clearly starts "giving" away the yards and even the points when up by a lot.

Its still painful to watch but our defensive-plan seems to be more than willing to trade time off the clock for yards and points.

pdangle · Jan 17, 2013

We already looked at this. You're measuring the wrong statistics. One of the best predictor of future points allowed in today's nfl is passing yards alowed per attempt, red zone d, and defensive turnovers forced (and by proxy opponent passer rating and sacks below.) Aggregate data and yards statistics have little impact on future scoring.

So yes the D is better.

pdangle said:

More importantly...

Opposing team passing statistics

Code:

1st Half games 1-8

Team 	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Totals	193	293	65.9%	2353	17	9	16	8.0	97.0

2nd Half games 9-16

Team 	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Y/A	Rate
Totals	177	302	58.6%	2204	10	11	20	7.3	77.2

Not sure it could be any clearer than this.

randomk1 · Jan 17, 2013

jmt57 said:
I haven't looked up the stats to see if this is correct, but does the Pats up-tempo offense result in more plays, more drives, and more opportunities for opposing offenses? If so, then that would skew statistical rankings.

If for example most teams have 10 possessions and 70 snaps per game, but up-tempo offenses such as the Pats cause the average to increase to 12 possessions and 85 snaps per game, then would it not stand to reason that the stats for the New England defense would be higher than the stats for the 31 other defenses?

Conversely if an offense tends to run the ball more often (causing the clock to continue to run), then wouldn't that slower tempo game result in fewer snaps and possessions, and therefore fewer yards and points?

I've trying to rack up some numbers when it comes to opposing plays per game,opposing TOP but i'm really unable to come to any real conclusion when it comes to those.

I think NE's up tempo offense isn't a disadvantage. They are able to sustain drives and have good TOP.

mayoclinic · Jan 17, 2013

JJDChE said:
Not only does it skew the number, if you start at the New York game the conversion rate over the last 7 games is only 29.8%, which would equate to #1 in the NFL.

That's exactly what my eyes are telling me.

Kinda interesting that even in the 41 point egg against the 9ers, we still only let up 5-14 on 3rd.

As I've noted elsewhere, the Ravens have survived by being a big play offense, not by moving the chains. They were 4-10 on 3rd down conversions against Indy, 7-17 against Denver. They had only 18 1st downs against Indy, 21 (in 5+ quarters) against Denver. They aren't an efficient, methodical offense. They don't sustain drives, they make too many mistakes. They lost the TOP to Indy almost 2:1. But they've made big plays: a 43 yard run and 47 and 50 yard pass plays against Indy, a 32 yard run and 59 and 70 yard pass plays against Denver.

The Pats have excelled over the last 8 games in those 2 areas: stopping 3rd down conversions to halt sustained drives, and limiting big plays. They haven't allowed an offensive rushing play over 23 yards all season, and they've allowed only 2 completions over 40 yards in the last 8 games. I count only 8 plays over 30 yards allowed in the last 8 games, and 4 of those came with the Pats up by 28 points or more:

1. Andrew Luck to TY Hilton 43 yard TD pass, when the Pars were up 45-17
2. Mark Sanchez to Jeff Cumblerland 39 yard pass, when the Pats were up 35-5
3. Mark Sanchez to Jeremy Kerley 36 yard pass, when the Pats were up 49-12
4. Matt Schaub to James Casey 30 yard pass, when the Pats were up 28-0
4. Colin Kaepernick 34 yard TD pass to Delanie Walker
5. Colin Kaepernick 38 yard TD pass to Michael Crabtree
6. Chad Henne to Jordan Shipley short pass that went for 36 yards
7. Chad Henne to Montell Owens short pass that went for 53 yards

The two Jacksonville plays were short passes that got broken long. Really the only 2 meaningful long ball completions over 30 yards or more against our defense in the past 8 weeks were the 2 Kaepernick TD passes, as the other 6 were either short passes or passes made after the game had been broken open, when the defense tended to soften up a bit.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Jan 17, 2013

I don't know what the stats say, but the Patriots have improved beyond any doubt.

However, it does seem like the pass rush has slowed down significantly since Chandler Jones' ankle injury. If the Pats could have their first half's pass rush with the second half's secondary, this is a championship defense.

DarrylS · Jan 17, 2013

Sound like a broken record, but will get on the soapbox once again...

At one point in our season our D Backfield totalled less than 5 years experience, McCourty was the senior player..

The d backfield looked confused, this has all improved...

We also have three rookies starting on Defense, and bring in a rookie on the big nickel.. so we have some inexperience, peppered with more experienced players..

Statistics, except for W, do not tell the whole story.

JJDChE · Jan 17, 2013

mayoclinic said:
As I've noted elsewhere, the Ravens have survived by being a big play offense, not by moving the chains. They were 4-10 on 3rd down conversions against Indy, 7-17 against Denver. They had only 18 1st downs against Indy, 21 (in 5+ quarters) against Denver. They aren't an efficient, methodical offense. They don't sustain drives, they make too many mistakes. They lost the TOP to Indy almost 2:1. But they've made big plays: a 43 yard run and 47 and 50 yard pass plays against Indy, a 32 yard run and 59 and 70 yard pass plays against Denver.

The Pats have excelled over the last 8 games in those 2 areas: stopping 3rd down conversions to halt sustained drives, and limiting big plays. They haven't allowed an offensive rushing play over 23 yards all season, and they've allowed only 2 completions over 40 yards in the last 8 games. I count only 8 plays over 30 yards allowed in the last 8 games, and 4 of those came with the Pats up by 28 points or more:

1. Andrew Luck to TY Hilton 43 yard TD pass, when the Pars were up 45-17
2. Mark Sanchez to Jeff Cumblerland 39 yard pass, when the Pats were up 35-5
3. Mark Sanchez to Jeremy Kerley 36 yard pass, when the Pats were up 49-12
4. Matt Schaub to James Casey 30 yard pass, when the Pats were up 28-0
4. Colin Kaepernick 34 yard TD pass to Delanie Walker
5. Colin Kaepernick 38 yard TD pass to Michael Crabtree
6. Chad Henne to Jordan Shipley short pass that went for 36 yards
7. Chad Henne to Montell Owens short pass that went for 53 yards

The two Jacksonville plays were short passes that got broken long. Really the only 2 meaningful long ball completions over 30 yards or more against our defense in the past 8 weeks were the 2 Kaepernick TD passes, as the other 6 were either short passes or passes made after the game had been broken open, when the defense tended to soften up a bit.

Did you look at pass plays over 20 yds? We've finished dead last in that category the last two seasons (79 in '11, 74 in '12). I'm curious if those dropped off since Talib came in.

Vataha · Jan 17, 2013

Here's some skewed stats to chew on:

Only games that Talib and Dennard played the entire game (IND,NYJ,MIA,HOU).

PPG: 14.6 (1st in NFL)
Total Yds: 290.6 (2nd in NFL)
Pass Yds: 210.6 (7th in NFL)
Rush Yds: 80 (1st in NFL)

Palm Beach Pats Fan · Jan 17, 2013

Points per possession and yards per possession should be more reflective of performance than points and yards per game, since the higher tempo we started using would I think have created both more opportunities for our O but also more possessions we have to defend. Plus we have been ahead for most second halves, making the opposition abandon long and sustained attacks in favor of hurry-up drives of their own

Metaphors · Jan 17, 2013

Couple of points:

Looking at the Football Outsider drive stats, I think you can determine the type of teams involved in this game:

Ravens offense = Avg production, good efficiency (pts), questionable ball security
Pats defense = Avg production, avg efficiency (pts), turnover machine

Pats offense = Elite production, elite efficiency (pts), great ball security (elite before the SF game)
Ravens defense = Good production, great efficiency (pts), below avg taking the ball away

The Pats defense has improved significantly over the year to get to that "Average" level...meaning they have been above average to get there. The 2 biggest areas that stand out:

1) The Pats offense is just silly in how productive and efficient they are. FO rated the playoff game against the Texans (a top 5 defense ITO) the 8th best offensive performance they have every rated.

2) Turnover differential in ingrained in this team's DNA. They've been top 5 for 3 years and were even better in 2010. But the physicality of this team and the ability to knock the ball loose is definitely new (and welcome). Scheming interceptions doesn't always transfer to the playoffs. Crushing a skill player so that physics demands the ball hits the ground...well that always does.

If the game doesn't get whacky on ST or with broken plays and missed assignments, the two factors above should take over and make it a good day for the Pats.

mayoclinic · Jan 17, 2013

JJDChE said:
Did you look at pass plays over 20 yds? We've finished dead last in that category the last two seasons (79 in '11, 74 in '12). I'm curious if those dropped off since Talib came in.

See post #17 above, which notes plays of 20 yards or more (both rush and pass) for the last 8 games. The Pats have given up an average of 4.5 plays of 20 yards or more over the 8 games, but only 1 play of 30 yards or more/game on average over those 8 games. So they are doing a good job of keeping things in front of them, limiting the big play, and getting off the field on 3rd down (as discussed in that post). I'd call that progress.

jmt57 · Jan 17, 2013

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:
Points per possession and yards per possession should be more reflective of performance than points and yards per game, since the higher tempo we started using would I think have created both more opportunities for our O but also more possessions we have to defend. Plus we have been ahead for most second halves, making the opposition abandon long and sustained attacks in favor of hurry-up drives of their own

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Yards per Point on TeamRankings.com
Offensive Yards per Point:
Patriots 12.2 (1st)
Ravens 14.3 (11th)

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Points per Play on TeamRankings.com
Offensive Points per Play:
Patriots 0.476 (1st)
Ravens 0.392 (10th)

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opp Yards per Point on TeamRankings.com
Defensive Yards per Point:
Patriots 17.8 (6th)
Ravens 16.6 (8th)

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Points per Play on TeamRankings.com
Defensive Points per Play:
Patriots 0.321 (9th)
Ravens 0.308 (7th)

Bottom line: the two defenses are comparable; the two offenses are not.

JJDChE · Jan 17, 2013

mayoclinic said:
See post #17 above, which notes plays of 20 yards or more (both rush and pass) for the last 8 games. The Pats have given up an average of 4.5 plays of 20 yards or more over the 8 games, but only 1 play of 30 yards or more/game on average over those 8 games. So they are doing a good job of keeping things in front of them, limiting the big play, and getting off the field on 3rd down (as discussed in that post). I'd call that progress.

The 20 yd plays are still a bit of a concern. Those 4.5 20+ per game equates to 72 in a season. Since we rarely allow a 20+ yd run, the 72 would be almost all passing plays. 72 20+ passing plays per season will put you right at or near the bottom of the league.

Not a huge concern, but they have not improved in that area.

mayoclinic · Jan 17, 2013

JJDChE said:
The 20 yd plays are still a bit of a concern. Those 4.5 20+ per game equates to 72 in a season. Since we rarely allow a 20+ yd run, the 72 would be almost all passing plays. 72 20+ passing plays per season will put you right at or near the bottom of the league.

Not a huge concern, but they have not improved in that area.

Not really. Since you want it broken out in terms of just pass plays:

- Houston (playoffs): 4
- Miami: 4
- Jacksonville: 2
- San Francisco: 5; there was also a 35 yard PI penalty in Aqib Talib
- Houston: 4
- Miami: 4
- NY Jets: 4
- Indianapolis: 4; there was also a 40 yard PI penalty on Kyle Arrington

So we're just under 4 plays/game without the PI calls, and just over with them.

RayVNLewis · Jan 17, 2013

Metaphors said:
Couple of points:

Looking at the Football Outsider drive stats, I think you can determine the type of teams involved in this game:

Ravens offense = Avg production, good efficiency (pts), questionable ball security
Pats defense = Avg production, avg efficiency (pts), turnover machine

Pats offense = Elite production, elite efficiency (pts), great ball security (elite before the SF game)
Ravens defense = Good production, great efficiency (pts), below avg taking the ball away

The Pats defense has improved significantly over the year to get to that "Average" level...meaning they have been above average to get there. The 2 biggest areas that stand out:

1) The Pats offense is just silly in how productive and efficient they are. FO rated the playoff game against the Texans (a top 5 defense ITO) the 8th best offensive performance they have every rated.

2) Turnover differential in ingrained in this team's DNA. They've been top 5 for 3 years and were even better in 2010. But the physicality of this team and the ability to knock the ball loose is definitely new (and welcome). Scheming interceptions doesn't always transfer to the playoffs. Crushing a skill player so that physics demands the ball hits the ground...well that always does.

If the game doesn't get whacky on ST or with broken plays and missed assignments, the two factors above should take over and make it a good day for the Pats.

The Ravens have Questionable ball security ??!

You might want to review your numbers...

1%er · Jan 17, 2013

ivanvamp said:
I know what my eyes tell me: the Patriots defense is better now than it was earlier in the year. I certainly have more confidence in them now than I did earlier. The switch to Talib/Dennard at CB with McCourty as S really has helped matters out a ton.

At least that's what it looks like to my eyes.

Do the numbers back it up? Unfortunately, no. I broke the season up into two halves: weeks 1-8, then weeks 9-18 (including the playoff game vs. Houston). Here's what I found.

First, the raw numbers:

Points allowed per game:
- Wks 1-8: 21.3
- Wks 9-18: 21.0

(so that's good, right? a little improvement)

Yards allowed per game:
- Wks 1-8: 369.8
- Wks 9-18: 382.1

(so that's bad, right? more yards allowed per game)

But we might want to focus on that 0.3 ppg improvement and say, hey, they're doing better. Well, maybe, maybe not. Let's look at the quality of offenses they faced in those periods of time. I'm going by those offenses' final rankings and averages. Too much of a pain to go through and figure out where those teams were at that point in the season.

Avg Offensive Ranking by Points:
- Wks 1-8: 18.6
- Wks 9-18: 19.8

Avg Offensive Points Scored:
- Wks 1-8: 21.9
- Wks 9-18: 21.1

So they faced slightly worse offenses in terms of scoring, by 0.8 ppg. What about yards produced?

Avg Offensive Ranking by Yards:
- Wks 1-8: 20.9
- Wks 9-18: 18.6

Avg Offensive Yards Gained:
- Wks 1-8: 331.0
- Wks 9-18: 337.0

So their 2nd half opponents tended to gain a few more yards per game than their 1st half opponents did over the course of the entire season.

Now, let's look at the Patriots' performance relative to their opponents' offensive production.

Weeks 1-8:
- The average points scored by their opponents over the course of their (opponents') season was 21.9. The Patriots held them to an average of 21.3. That's a +0.6 figure for the Patriots.

- The average yards gained by their opponents over the course of their (opponents') season was 331.0. The Patriots held them to an average of 369.8. That's a -38.8 figure for the Patriots.

Weeks 9-18:
- The average points scored by their opponents over the course of their (opponents') season was 21.1. The Patriots held them to an average of 21.0. That's a +0.1 figure for the Patriots.

- The average yards gained by their opponents over the course of their (opponents') season was 337.0. The Patriots held them to an average of 382.1. That's a -45.1 figure for the Patriots.

So in both points allowed and yards allowed, the Patriots have been *worse* during the 2nd half of the season than they were during the 1st half of the season, relative to the offensive capability of their opponents.

The numbers here do not support what my eyes tell me.

Now let's see how the Pats have done this year against above-average offenses. They've only played 7 games against offenses in the top 16 in the league: Bal, Den, Sea, Ind, Hou, SF, and Hou again. Here's what they've done in those games:

Avg Rank (Pts): 9.4
Avg Rank (Yds): 10.3

Avg PPG: 25.7
Pats allowed: 26.1
Pats +/-: -0.4

Avg YPG: 367.1
Pats allowed: 407.0
Pats +/-: -39.9

Long story shorter, we have good reason, statistically, to believe that Baltimore will put up both yards and points on the Patriots. It *feels* like the Pats' D is better now than it was earlier in the year, but the numbers suggest that's just not true, unfortunately.

Baltimore averages 24.9 points and 352.5 yards per game this year (regular season numbers). I fully expect them to have around 24-27 points against the Pats on Sunday. I just hope the Pats can put up 28-31 on the Ravens' old and slow defense.

The Avg YPG stat is so flawed,

1. Opponents had 191 drives against the us. 5th most in the NFL.
2. Opponents Avg starting field position was 25.60 in the NFL.
3. We had 15 TO very rarely allowing a short field.
4. We were 8th worst in the NFL with 932 yards coming on penalties.
5. We out scored the opponent by an average of 14.1 PPG resulting in them throwing the ball 37.1 times per game and attempting more big plays.
6. Opponents ran 2.22 plays per minute because playing behind resulted in them using a hurry up offense.

I can go on for days but the fact is when you have a high powered offense that scores close to 5 more PPG than any other team in the NFL the defense is going to face more adversity.

I look at the 5.7 Yrds/P which was tied for 8th in the NFL as the biggest indicator of are defense.

The Defense: Eye test vs. the Numbers

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