Kind of surprised to visit this forum and not see the kind of overconfident boasting that is so typical of NFL fans.
Just a few observations. Firstly, I really have not watched the Patriots play since the superbowl, but I did look up their stats a bit.
1. Patriots have a good run defense but a terrible pass defense (this is based on stats). I don't know about Kaepernick, but when Smith played teams with terrible pass defenses, he often looked like Tom Brady or Drew Brees even though he often struggled against teams with good pass defenses. Kaepernick is a different quarterback, and he has not put up a lot of points through the air except against Chicago, but we have the receivers and the play calling to put up a lot of points if we can move the ball through the air. Of course, Kaepernick is still inexperienced and he does not move the ball as consistently as Smith, who was leading the league in most yards per pass attempt last time I checked.
If it were Smith starting, I would say that the Patriots might have a very bad day on preventing the pass, but with Kaepernick, it becomes more unpredictable. He had one of the strongest arms in the NFL, so he can move the ball 50 yards down field through the air, but we tend toward conservative play calling, so he probably will not try that too many times.
2. Kaepernick is one of the most Athletic quarterbacks in the league right now. If you put pressure on him, he is liable to burn you on the run. If he gets into the backfield, there may be nobody that can catch him, and we have one of the best offensive lines to make that happen. He also makes a lot of mistakes, doesn't seem to understand the plays as well as Smith, so that could be a liability if you confuse him.
3. We play very aggressively and get a lot of penalties. Sometimes they cost us big.
4. Our guys are good enough that they can pressure the quarterback while keeping most of our defenders in the back field to prevent the long pass. Someone as good as Brady might be able to get the short passes off without too much of a problem; however, when we get ahead by a couple of scores, we start really bringing the pressure.
If the Patriots can keep the game within seven points, that gives Brady more times to make plays happen. If we get ahead by 10 or more points, the pressure on the quarterback often becomes so relentless that the passing game is almost destroyed, because that is when we start the serious blitzing.
5. Last year we stopped the run dead, but had problems on the long pass. This year, we have compromised to hold Willis back and let the rusher or the short receiver get a few yards before being pummeled.
6. If Brady tries to force passes or throws long, we will probably make him pay with turnovers. Our guys are one of the best at reading the offense and getting in position to make an interception.
7. Talk to the NY Giants. They are the only team that has soundly beat us since Harbaugh took over. I don't know whether it was a fluke or they really have our number, but clearly whatever they did worked.
Obviously, these are two of the best teams in the NFL facing each other. It is hard to predict what will happen. I suspect that it is probably cold in Boston this time of year and may even be snow season already, which combined with jet lag probably gives the Patriots a significant advantage, but on a neutral field, I would choose the 49ers.
Of course, Brady is going to retire some day soon and join the likes of Montana and Young, so even when his team is outmatched, he is an extremely dangerous opponent and even a three touchdown lead with a smash-mouth defense against him is not a guarantee of a victory.
The Patriots are just the sort of team that we built to beat, but also the sort of team that makes it almost impossible to get enough of a lead to put the game away, so it might be the best and toughest game we have played since Green Bay at the beginning of the season.
Obviously, the keys to the game:
1. Can the Patriots defense stop the 49ers? The numbers say "no", but worse defenses have slowed us down this year, and we are not used to playing in the cold.
2. Can the 49ers force turnovers? The numbers say that if they get ahead and force Brady to throw down the field, we probably can. The key for New England is to not be more than one drive behind in the score.
3. Can the 49ers sack? Hard to believe that we will come out of the game without at least one or two sacks, but if we fail to get far enough ahead in the beginning or have to come from behind, that cuts Brady a lot of slack.
4. Will our second year QB make a lot of stupid mistakes? Will we commit a lot of penalties? This could decide a close game.
5. Will our kicker come through. Last year, he was the best in the league. This year, he has missed every single 50 yard + goal except the record setting 63 yarder he made against Green Bay.
I wish it were a home game so I could watch it in person, c'est la vie. See you on Sunday.
