Has Tom Brady lost his magic?

PatsFanSince74 · Oct 19, 2012

Snake Eyes said:
Using all quarters v. the 4th kinda skews things a bit, wht is he in 1-3 v. 4?

That's the right question.

BSR · Oct 19, 2012

IllegalContact said:
you can't put the notion of 'magic' on brady alone.

there are some things about him that give the appearance of him getting on in years. the biggest one is his pocket presence or pocket awareness. anyone who says he's still the same QB he's always been in the pocket is in denial. watch film from the present and the past at the same time. especially against tougher defenses......even in those instances when the pats were getting pounded by the steelers in 2004 or something, he was behaviorally a completely different QB than he is now.

part of this is understandable. At his age, he has to have life beyond football on his mind, and would deservedly like to preserve the same physical capacities he currently has.

The problem with your analysis is that it is wrong and built on anecdotal evidence. Anyone watching Brady this season has seen that his pocket presence has been incredibly good, probably just as good as it ever has been. The ironic thing was I was thinking along the same lines as you at the start of the season so this was one of the main things I was looking at from the first game. I've been shocked at how good he has been in the pocket this year. It made me re-evaluate how I looked at his play, as I did see the occasional phantom duck despite his overall great play. The one thing that I did come to realize that his phantom ducks aren't a weakness nor are they necessarily a bad thing. Look at the following

Code:

Year     Age  Tm Pos No.   G  GS Sk  Int  Yds   TD  Lng   PD   FF  Fmb   FR  Yds   TD  Tkl  Ast Sfty
2001*     24 NWE  QB  12  15  14                                0   12    4  -18    0               
2002      25 NWE  QB  12  16  16                                0   11    5  -32    0               
2003      26 NWE  QB  12  16  16                                0   13    3   -5    0               
2004*     27 NWE  QB  12  16  16                                0    7    1  -17    0               
2005*     28 NWE  QB  12  16  16                                0    4    0    0    0               
2006      29 NWE  QB  12  16  16                                0   12    1   -2    0               
2007*+    30 NWE  QB  12  16  16                                0    6    1    0    0               
2009*     32 NWE  QB  12  16  16                                0    4    0    0    0               
2010*+    33 NWE  QB  12  16  16                                0    3    1   -5    0               
2011*     34 NWE  QB  12  16  16                                0    6    3   -8    0               
2012      35 NWE  QB  12   6   5                                0    2    1   -3    0               
Career                   167 164                                0   80   20  -90    0

Notice the decrease in fumbles? A lot of people like to remember that kid that would stand in the pocket under all pressure until the very last second. They neglect to remember that it was also a problem as it related to fumbles from edge pressure. These phantom ducks aren't a result growing weaknesses, they are a result of purposely trying to prevent turnovers.

ralmat55 · Oct 19, 2012

IllegalContact said:
What I wouldn't give to watch brady implement Charlie Weis' scheme now. patience and taking what is being given because there is always something being given. that same scheme that helped insulate a developing QB would work even better with an aging QB in the beginning throes of decline.

The problem is "what is being given" more and more is one-on-one coverage on the outside which the Patriots still don't have the outside receivers to exploit. Teams are packing the middle of the field taking away the short passes. It's a strategy good defenses do against them all game long but even mediocre defenses will employ it when they are behind and desperate.

If the Pats can't run the ball against an opponent's base defense, and, despite their gaudy rushing numbers so far this year, they still are not able to do so consistently. Thus, they have no choice but to throw it down the field to try to get first downs at the end of games.

This is why I'd like to see the Patriots line Gronkowski and Hernandez outside more during these situations. Most defenses don't have suitable personnel to match up with them in man to man, so defenses have to make a decision whether they want to put a CB on them who mostly aren't tall enough to cover them or linebackers who mostly aren't fast enough to cover them. Either way you have a better chance at making some plays down field and perhaps even open up some things underneath for Welker, Branch and the running back.

ivanvamp · Oct 19, 2012

BradyManny said:
Damn, you got a funny way of reading those statistics then.

His rating is better in the 4th quarter in 2 of those seasons; the difference is negligible in six seasons; and he's noticeably worse in three seasons (including his rookie year and the season after the ACL).

How on earth do you extrapolate that into:

Funny way of reading those stats? Really? They're very straightforward. I sifted through his stats and used this calculator (NFL, NCAA, AFL - Quarterback Rating Calculator). Here's his career #'s:

1st-3rd Q: 64.6%, 7.6 ypa, 51.1 att/int, 97.6 rating
4th Q: 61.5%, 7.1 ypa, 36.4 att/int, 91.9 rating

He's worse in completion percentage, yards per attempt, attempt/interception ratio, and QB rating.

In other words, for his career, he's worse in the 4th quarter than he is in the first three. Not every game, obviously, but pretty consistently year-to-year, from the beginning of his career to the present, and, of course, when all his numbers are totaled up.

Doesn't mean I don't want him to have the ball with the game on the line, and it doesn't mean he's not an all-time great (I'd rather have him than anyone else), but he's not bullet-proof.

ivanvamp · Oct 19, 2012

PatsFanSince74 said:
That's the right question.

To you and snake eyes...look at post #84, where I give this info.

Danger Zone · Oct 19, 2012

Deus Irae said:
When we get to trades, we can point to Haynesworth as the prime example of failure

Haynesworth CANT be viewed as the prime example of a trade failure. There was ENORMOUS (ha) upside for virtually no cost.

31 other headcoaches would love to fail as successfully as we did with Haynesworth.

Just the things that came out of this known malcontents mouth in regards to the Patriots and BB even after he was let go was provably worth what we gave for him.

Thomas on the other hand is a much better example of a prime trafe failure.

IllegalContact · Oct 19, 2012

BSR said:
The problem with your analysis is that it is wrong and built on anecdotal evidence. Anyone watching Brady this season has seen that his pocket presence has been incredibly good, probably just as good as it ever has been. The ironic thing was I was thinking along the same lines as you at the start of the season so this was one of the main things I was looking at from the first game. I've been shocked at how good he has been in the pocket this year. It made me re-evaluate how I looked at his play, as I did see the occasional phantom duck despite his overall great play. The one thing that I did come to realize that his phantom ducks aren't a weakness nor are they necessarily a bad thing. Look at the following

Code:

Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Sk Int Yds TD Lng PD FF Fmb FR Yds TD Tkl Ast Sfty 2001* 24 NWE QB 12 15 14 0 12 4 -18 0 2002 25 NWE QB 12 16 16 0 11 5 -32 0 2003 26 NWE QB 12 16 16 0 13 3 -5 0 2004* 27 NWE QB 12 16 16 0 7 1 -17 0 2005* 28 NWE QB 12 16 16 0 4 0 0 0 2006 29 NWE QB 12 16 16 0 12 1 -2 0 2007*+ 30 NWE QB 12 16 16 0 6 1 0 0 2009* 32 NWE QB 12 16 16 0 4 0 0 0 2010*+ 33 NWE QB 12 16 16 0 3 1 -5 0 2011* 34 NWE QB 12 16 16 0 6 3 -8 0 2012 35 NWE QB 12 6 5 0 2 1 -3 0 Career 167 164 0 80 20 -90 0

Notice the decrease in fumbles? A lot of people like to remember that kid that would stand in the pocket under all pressure until the very last second. They neglect to remember that it was also a problem as it related to fumbles from edge pressure. These phantom ducks aren't a result growing weaknesses, they are a result of purposely trying to prevent turnovers.

the decrease on fumbles has as much to do with other factors.....notice the change from 2003 to 2004....what changed? corey dillon arrived for a 1700 yard season.

it's not just the quarterback.......

but that said, he also never use to duck from pressure that wasn't there, something that is certainly bad because it forces him to take his eyes off his targets. the other side effect is that he doesn't check down anymore.....mostly because he is rushing to get rid of the ball......it takes time to check down.....time that brady does not want to commit at the risk of getting hit......or so seems to be on a more general level the opinion of past QB's

as of right now, my analysis is every bit as legit as yours......you haven't brought anything damning to the table

IllegalContact · Oct 19, 2012

no they're not.......the one thing that has been open more and more are the dump offs to the RB's ..... they're 10-11 going to woodhead at an 11/5 yard clip......they were 8-8 in the superbowl and forgot to do that down the stretch. that's what teams are giving up these days. do it enough times and other things will open up

Kenneth Sims said:
The problem is "what is being given" more and more is one-on-one coverage on the outside which the Patriots still don't have the outside receivers to exploit. Teams are packing the middle of the field taking away the short passes. It's a strategy good defenses do against them all game long but even mediocre defenses will employ it when they are behind and desperate.

If the Pats can't run the ball against an opponent's base defense, and, despite their gaudy rushing numbers so far this year, they still are not able to do so consistently. Thus, they have no choice but to throw it down the field to try to get first downs at the end of games.

This is why I'd like to see the Patriots line Gronkowski and Hernandez outside more during these situations. Most defenses don't have suitable personnel to match up with them in man to man, so defenses have to make a decision whether they want to put a CB on them who mostly aren't tall enough to cover them or linebackers who mostly aren't fast enough to cover them. Either way you have a better chance at making some plays down field and perhaps even open up some things underneath for Welker, Branch and the running back.

Kontradiction · Oct 19, 2012

In reply to an earlier post regarding the occurrance of blown 4th quarter leads increasing with the defense in it's rebuilding phase...

In 2009, the Patriots defense surrendered 8 scoring drives in 4 of their 6 losses when leading in the 4th quarter. In 2010, the Patriots didn't lose when leading or tied in the 4th quarter. In 2011, the Patriots defense allowed 5 scoring drives in 2 or their 3 losses when leading or tied in the 4th quarter. The rate of failure when it comes to protecting a 4th quarter lead, when looking at those numbers, should be put squarely on the defense.

Deus Irae · Oct 19, 2012

Danger Zone said:
Haynesworth CANT be viewed as the prime example of a trade failure. There was ENORMOUS (ha) upside for virtually no cost.

31 other headcoaches would love to fail as successfully as we did with Haynesworth.

Just the things that came out of this known malcontents mouth in regards to the Patriots and BB even after he was let go was provably worth what we gave for him.

Thomas on the other hand is a much better example of a prime trafe failure.

Haynesworth was such a failure that they cut him in mid-season. I'll stand by that example.

Snake Eyes · Oct 19, 2012

KontradictioN said:
In reply to an earlier post regarding the occurrance of blown 4th quarter leads increasing with the defense in it's rebuilding phase...

In 2009, the Patriots defense surrendered 8 scoring drives in 4 of their 6 losses when leading in the 4th quarter. In 2010, the Patriots didn't lose when leading or tied in the 4th quarter. In 2011, the Patriots defense allowed 5 scoring drives in 2 or their 3 losses when leading or tied in the 4th quarter. The rate of failure when it comes to protecting a 4th quarter lead, when looking at those numbers, should be put squarely on the defense.

How many offensive drives stalled in the 4th Quarter in that same period?

Kontradiction · Oct 19, 2012

Snake Eyes said:
How many offensive drives stalled in the 4th Quarter in that same period?

How is it relevant when the offense usually entered that period with a multi-score lead? Drives stall. But when the offense takes the lead into the 4th, the defense has to do it's job to protect it. Allowing scoring drives to that tune = the defense not doing it's job.

Deus Irae · Oct 19, 2012

KontradictioN said:
In reply to an earlier post regarding the occurrance of blown 4th quarter leads increasing with the defense in it's rebuilding phase...

In 2009, the Patriots defense surrendered 8 scoring drives in 4 of their 6 losses when leading in the 4th quarter. In 2010, the Patriots didn't lose when leading or tied in the 4th quarter. In 2011, the Patriots defense allowed 5 scoring drives in 2 or their 3 losses when leading or tied in the 4th quarter. The rate of failure when it comes to protecting a 4th quarter lead, when looking at those numbers, should be put squarely on the defense.

Sadly, the era of the internet and fantasy sports has led people to believe that an offense has to be perfect in order for it not to suck. Being the winningest team in football for the past 3+ years, despite having a QB returning from ACL surgery and having a defense that was in clear decline during that period, is somehow not a sign that the offense is getting the job done, because the team's lost some games in the 4th quarter. :bricks:

jetman67 · Oct 19, 2012

As a Jets fan Brady still worries me. I was at the Seahawks vs Patsies last week, and when he had time, he showed he can still make plays. Alot of his trouble last week was guys dropping passes they should have caught.

The bottom line for the Jets to win, is to closely watch how Caughlin played them in the Superbowls and hit Brady hard and often. When allowed time in the pocket he is still lethal.

I despise Brady, but he can pick apart a defense better than Marino ever did.

robbomango · Oct 19, 2012

kris said:
Caller wants to trade Brady .

"http://audio.weei.com/a/64951736/caller-wants-to-trade-tom-brady.htm"

If the link fails just go to weei.com . Some guy called jimmy is totally trashing Brady and is so mean in his remarks . I feel he has personal vendetta against him . It is so sick when your own fans are jealous of their QB that they have to resort to anything to cut him down to satisfy their ego ?

He is called Jimmy from Lowell .

Slow down you don't need to post this in every thread, everyone's entitled to an opinion. That said F Jimmy's opinion

JJDChE · Oct 19, 2012

I didn't know that Tom Brady was a wizard. How did he lose his magic? Did Voldemort steal his wand?

JJDChE · Oct 19, 2012

kris said:
sorry ! I am a young guy and my blood is boiling ! I apologize if i annoyed anyone

I can't post a thread so i just wanted everybody to see this guy and kick his ass !!!

ok

I'm glad you're young. It's a perfect time for you to learn that you don't kick people's asses over their opinion regarding football.

Joker · Oct 19, 2012

relax Kris...blood boiling posts are usually the result of the lying scumbag weasel Rat fans from NJ who call EEI and claim to be Pats fans from Mass....I heard the guy too and he had a thick Jersey accent...just laugh that some mentally defective green sewer dweller is still so enraged after all these years that he devotes all this time to call a Boston station, pose as a Pats fan,wait an hour to get on and then display why even profoundly ******ed people still possess a mental acuity that DWARFS the intelligence of any green amoebae(aka Jet fans).

Red_Sox_Fan · Oct 19, 2012

JJDChE said:
I didn't know that Tom Brady was a wizard. How did he lose his magic? Did Voldemort steal his wand?

Eli is the man!

Danger Zone · Oct 19, 2012

Deus Irae said:
Sadly, the era of the internet and fantasy sports has led people to believe that an offense has to be perfect in order for it not to suck. Being the winningest team in football for the past 3+ years, despite having a QB returning from ACL surgery and having a defense that was in clear decline during that period, is somehow not a sign that the offense is getting the job done, because the team's lost some games in the 4th quarter. :bricks:

Ive got to agree with the above.

Brady maybe didnt actually win us these games that we lost -but he clearly put us in the position to do so.

The Patriots might not be running on all cylinders as we transition into a new type of offense. But even as we sputter along, we still find ourselves as the #1 offense in the league.

Has Tom Brady lost his magic?

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