Final Roster Projection ?

Joker said:

my point was predicting the roster now is an exercise in futility....the week before the opener would be better...of course don't let that stop you from being so angry that you feel the need to instruct me on what to post and not to post...you don't like it, use the ignore function...bye

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I accept your apologies.

supafly said:

I'm going to have to disagree on Mallett. He had absolutely no knowledge whatsoever last year of a very complicated offense as a rookie. On top of that, he came into TC in a weird lockout situation which likely limited some of the rookies' effectiveness, particularly those who were QB in an extremely complicated system.

I really doubt that Mallett will have to immediately step up and prove himself at the NFL level in his real first attempt. One would assume that a smart guy like Bill Belichick would tend to at least give him a fair chance, not only in picking up the offense in general, but in showing something in a very limited opportunity.

Especially with the whole "Hoyer is likely gone next year" scenario. I sincerely doubt that Belichick would leave himself that wide open at such an important position.

Luckily, Belichick isn't half as impatient as some of the fans here at patsfans.com

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I agree completely, Mallett had no offseason last year..

Deus Irae said:

I've made it pretty clear that I wasn't a fan of the Mallet pick, but I don't see how it makes sense to just outright cut him. He's coming off of a season without a training camp, and he's a QB. I don't see BB axing him without him getting an opportunity to grow in a year with a full offseason. There are too many negatives to doing that. If Hoyer were still under contract for a couple more years, I might be able to see it.

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The Hammer would have to get caught hitting on Belichick's babe in the shower to get cut this camp for the Hoyer and other reasons you cite.

KontradictioN said:

I don't see any way Barrett beats out Ebner.

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Each day Ebner does not practice I have him slipping back.

patchick said:

Another widebody DL does seem in order, and I agree that Brace has the inside track right now.

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I agree, sort of. I definitly want some more beef on the line that can play 3-4 DE as well as 4-3 DT.

I down grade Brace for Francis right now just because Brace has disappointed me in the past. I also at times cut Trevor Scott for Francis and keep Brace as well.

BB4PRez said:

If you belive what you read so far Bolden could knock out Larsen

Branch on the shadow roster and Brace in. Gerard Warren to shadow roster.

I wouldn't be surpised to see Mankins and/or Volmer start out out the PUP and coming in on week 6. Many of the players the Pats cut will be playing for other teams

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Larsen could knock out a ST LB. One who only plays D in an emergency, which Larsen can do.

For what it's worth, here's what I have right now:

QB (3) Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett
RB (5) Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, Spencer Larsen, Brandon Bolden
WR (5) Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Jabar Gaffney, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater
TE (3) Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Visanthe Shiancoe
C (2) Dan Connolly, Dan Koppen
G (4) Logan Mankins, Brian Waters, Nick McDonald, Ryan Wendell
T (3) Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon
DE (5) Rob Ninkovich, Trevor Scott, Chandler Jones, Jake Bequette, Jermaine Cunningham
DT (5) Vince Wilfork, Jonathan Fanene, Kyle Love, Brandon Deaderick, Ron Brace
ILB(2) Brandon Spikes, Dane Fletcher
OLB(4) Jerod Mayo, Donta Hightower, Bobby Carpenter, Jeff Tarpinian
CB (5) Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling, Kyle Arrington, Sterling Moore, Alfonzo Dennard
SS (2) Patrick Chung, James Ihedigbo
FS (2) Steve Gregory, Tavon Wilson
ST (3) Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Danny Aiken
PUP/IR/NFI (4) Ebert, Zusevics, Ballard, Fells

I don't really think Tarpinian should make this team but there aren't many other options at LB and keeping only 5 probably isn't enough. As you can see, I think Gallery is by no means safe. I also think it's very possible that they only keep 5 WR including Slater because of how rare it is that they have more than 3 on the field at once. As of now, IMO, Bolden has earned himself a roster spot.

In reality, either Mankins or Vollmer or both will probably stay on PUP and open up space for Gallery, Thomas, or both. I don't really have any idea why I picked the OL I did.

Nobody is projecting Andre Carter on the final roster.

Booooo! If he's healthy, I don't know how we could pass him up. Veteran leadership, good locker room guy, and proven to be effective in our system.

MrNathanDrake said:

Nobody is projecting Andre Carter on the final roster.

Booooo! If he's healthy, I don't know how we could pass him up. Veteran leadership, good locker room guy, and proven to be effective in our system.

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He's not on the team.

What would you guys think about not having a true FB and using either Fells at the position? Could be a good way to double up and save a spot?

14thDragon said:

Each day Ebner does not practice I have him slipping back.

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If you were going to cut rookies for missing practice time in TC, half of the guys on this roster would be gone.

KontradictioN said:

If you were going to cut rookies for missing practice time in TC, half of the guys on this roster would be gone.

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Agree. See Tarpinian for one of the more surprising decisions, and Ras-I starting the first couple games.

MrNathanDrake said:

Nobody is projecting Andre Carter on the final roster.

Booooo! If he's healthy, I don't know how we could pass him up. Veteran leadership, good locker room guy, and proven to be effective in our system.

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Sounds like he is not healthy and is still rehabbing, which is why he hasn't been signed. Injuries will happen and he could be a good pick up in the middle of the season after they do.

Not bad. Some thoughts in bold.

Quarterback (3): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett Makes sense.

Running Back (4): Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead, (FB) Spencer Larsen (Hernandez) Tough not to make room for Bolden, who has enough buzz that he'd never make it to the PS. I have no idea which FB wins.

Wide Receiver (6): Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Julian Edelman, Jabar Gaffney, Deion Branch, Donte Stallworth (Slater) Could drop one of Branch or Stallworth, more likely Donte.

Tight End (3): Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Visanthe Shiancoe (Solder) Makes sense.

Offensive Tackle (3): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon (Gallery) Makes sense.

Guard (3): Logan Mankins, Brian Waters, Robert Gallery (Wendell, Connolly) Makes sense.

Center (3): Dan Connolly, Dan Koppen, Ryan Wendell Makes sense, give or take the Wendell/McDonald competition.

Defensive Line (9): Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Brandon Deaderick, Jonathan Fanene, Jake Bequette, Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Jermaine Cunningham, Trevor Scott Makes sense, even though 4 true heavies would have seemed -- well, it that would have seemed light in past years.

Linebacker (6): Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Dane Fletcher, Bobby Carpenter, Dont’a Hightower (Ninkovich, Jones, Bequette, Cunningham, Scott) Cutting all of White/Tarpinian/Koutivides seems excessive.

Cornerback (5): Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling, Kyle Arrington, Sterling Moore, Alfonzo Dennard (Wilson, Allen) Dennard isn't a lock.

Safety (4): Pat Chung, Steve Gregory, Tavon Wilson, Will Allen (McCourty, Moore, Edelman, Slater, Ebner) Could be 5 safeties, counting Barrett, and only 4 CBs, especially if Allen has anything left in the CB tank.

Specialist (5): Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Danny Aiken, Matthew Slater, Nate Ebner Makes sense. There's usually somebody in that Ebner slot, and Brown has blown too many chances on Downs 1-3.

PUP/IR: Daniel Fells, Markus Zusevics, Brad Herman, Myron Pryor, Jake Ballard Is Mankins a lock to stay off PUP?

Practice Squad Possibilities: Jeremy Ebert, Brandon Bolden, Marcus Forston, Justin Francis, Jeff Tarpinian, Jeremiah Warren, Nick McDonald Makes sense, except for Bolden. Actually, McDonald probably doesn't make it to PS either. Above all, gotta have a heavy DL in here.

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I agree with your comments, except for the notion that our TC UDFA binkies won't pass to the Practice Squad if we want (Bolden). TC buzz does NOT make a squad, not ours, and not someone elses. Even pre-season success might not do that.

1) Ebner will be on the Practice Squad where he belongs, with a ST/LB getting one of the ST spot as is almost always the case. Of course, Cole could also be a candidate for a ST spot.

2) We need another wide body on the DL.

Fencer said:

Not bad. Some thoughts in bold.

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We might need more OL with how iffy Vollmer and Mankins are. Also, Bolden probably makes it. I'd take Stallworth over Branch.

KontradictioN said:

I don't see any way Barrett beats out Ebner. Ebner was drafted for his special teams expertise and the fact that he could be coached up on defense. Barrett doesn't offer anything near what Ebner does in that regard.

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Barrett played better last year then most people grant. He's a vet. He's a decent 4th S and ST player. Ebner may only have utility in one area. He's got PS written all over him IMO.

I'm surprised people are seeing Stallworth cut, and Branch making it. Branches productivity last year after the first few games and in particular the last 5 (counting playoffs) was poor. So far this year his hands/mind have shown up fine, but he's been labelled slow, very slow.

Meanwhile Stallworth has been impressing BB and is the only possible back-up to Lloyd. Gaffney is the only other choice, and he's not ideal in that role by any means.

Oh yeah. I think Koppen is all done.

bagwell368 said:

Oh yeah. I think Koppen is all done.

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Not a chance in hell. Maybe next year, but not this one.

Especially when you consider the Mankins/probable PUP situation, and the fact that we will likely need Connelly at guard at some point, if not right from the get-go.

Now is not the time to get cute and cut a solid center who has great chemistry with Brady and the offensive line assignments and reads. We have issues with Light's retirement, Mankins' injury, Vollmer's back issue, and the situation with Waters. That's not even taking into account the injury to an up and coming guy like Nick McDonald either.

We're already probably going to need someone like Donald Thomas or McDonald to step up and solidify a roster spot as it is for the interior line...taking away the possibility of Connelly playing guard would make no sense whatsoever.

EDIT: I had not initially heard about Koppen's one on one drill struggles, so that is certainly discouraging to say the least. It would only add to potential problems on the line if we had to keep Connelly at center, if nothing more than lack of options. I hope to see Koppen step it up, but one report doesn't sway me too much..."yet." If Koppen doesn't pick it up then you could be right.

bagwell368 said:

Barrett played better last year then most people grant. He's a vet. He's a decent 4th S and ST player. Ebner may only have utility in one area. He's got PS written all over him IMO.

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I would agree that Ebner's chances to make the roster are probably nowhere near as high as some have that to be, and that he likely has practice squad written all over him.

Either way, it will make for a good ST competition for the last (or second to last) safety spot.

I don't quite understand why so many would automatically pencil in Nate Ebner right from the beginning, but it will be fun to watch.

mgteich said:

I agree with your comments, except for the notion that our TC UDFA binkies won't pass to the Practice Squad if we want (Bolden). TC buzz does NOT make a squad, not ours, and not someone elses. Even pre-season success might not do that.

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It depends on the player, though. Bolden was a pretty big name coming out of his junior year, but had some questions to answer after a suspension and injury-affected low production as a senior. If he seems to answer those questions with the Patriots in pre-season, I have to think he WILL be on other teams' radar.