Tomlinson is not Superman

JR4 · Jan 12, 2007

He is very very good. But something interesting.

When he plays good defenses he usually has 1 long run that
transforms him from average to superman.
Take away the one long run and look at his stats.

Bal 26/69 2.6y/c
Oak 18/65 3.6y/c
Den 27/86 3.18y/c
Den 19/81 4.26y/c
Seat 21/61 2.9y/c

So let him have his one 50 to 80 yard run then
we are dealing with a managable running back.

Not so Baaad!

mgcolby · Jan 12, 2007

LT running the ball doesn't scare me (against our defense). LT in a seem route in the open field one-on-one with our safeties does. I am very content to give him 4 yards a carry and let them think he is running well than have them throw him out in the slot.

Pujo · Jan 12, 2007

Well, we can't know that for sure. If he were Superman, he'd have an alter ego, and I suppose it COULD be Tomlinson. Come to think of it, how come we never see both of them at the same time?

BelichickFan · Jan 12, 2007

As Football Outsiders says, he's the #1 RB but #13 on "Successful Runs" which means he's just above average on the median play but "Superman" on breaking long ones. Controlling his long ones is the defensive key.

BelichickFan · Jan 12, 2007

NEM said:
Thats an interesting point. Is there a list of RB's on "successful" runs?

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php

The two columns on the right are the Success Rate. The second to the right is the % and the rightmost is the rank.

TruthSeeker · Jan 12, 2007

Year Team G GS Att Yds Avg Lg TD 20+ 1st
2001 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1236 3.6 54 10 7 67
2002 San Diego Chargers 16 16 372 1683 4.5 76 14 12 90
2003 San Diego Chargers 16 16 313 1645 5.3 73 13 12 81
2004 San Diego Chargers 15 15 339 1335 3.9 42 17 6 68
2005 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1462 4.3 62 18 8 71
2006 San Diego Chargers 16 16 348 1815 5.2 85 28 12 81
TOTAL 95 95 2050 9176 4.5 85 100 57 458

Those stats sure look like Superman to me. I'm a huge Pats fan, but after 6 years, Tomlinson is already a Hall of Fame 1st ballot lock. 100 TD's after 6 years ? That sure sounds like Superman, the guy is incredible.

BelichickFan · Jan 12, 2007

scott99 said:
2004 San Diego Chargers 15 15 339 1335 3.9 42 17 6 68
2005 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1462 4.3 62 18 8 71
2006 San Diego Chargers 16 16 348 1815 5.2 85 28 12 81
TOTAL 95 95 2050 9176 4.5 85 100 57 458

Those stats sure look like Superman to me.

This year's average is sick, sure. 3.9 and 4.3 in two years before ? Nice, but . . .

SVN · Jan 12, 2007

JR4 said:
He is very very good. But something interesting.

When he plays good defenses he usually has 1 long run that
transforms him from average to superman.
Take away the one long run and look at his stats.

Bal 26/69 2.6y/c
Oak 18/65 3.6y/c
Den 27/86 3.18y/c
Den 19/81 4.26y/c
Seat 21/61 2.9y/c

So let him have his one 50 to 80 yard run then
we are dealing with a managable running back.

Not so Baaad!

dont know about seattle but denver has lynch, bal has ed reed

we dont have rodney

Seneschal2 · Jan 12, 2007

BelichickFan said:
Controlling his long ones is the defensive key.

Actually -- your sig is the key.

Both of their RBs will get past the LOS -- but how far? Pats LBs and DBs have missed some tackles this season. Like to see them work hard for their yards -- no gifts in this game.

mgcolby said:
I am very content to give him 4 yards a carry and let them think he is running well than have them throw him out in the slot.

As long as he doesn't get the ball on first AND second down. 4 + 4 = 3rd and 2. They'll be no pressure on Rivers with that scenario.

LT=MVP · Jan 12, 2007

JR4 said:
He is very very good. But something interesting.

When he plays good defenses he usually has 1 long run that
transforms him from average to superman.
Take away the one long run and look at his stats.

Bal 26/69 2.6y/c
Oak 18/65 3.6y/c
Den 27/86 3.18y/c
Den 19/81 4.26y/c
Seat 21/61 2.9y/c

So let him have his one 50 to 80 yard run then
we are dealing with a managable running back.

Not so Baaad!

:blahblah:

Such a completely useless view point. You could say that about ANY great back in history. I hope you guys underestimate him.

BelichickFan · Jan 12, 2007

LT=MVP said:
:blahblah:

Such a completely useless view point. You could say that about ANY great back in history. I hope you guys underestimate him.

No need to get all thin skinned, he's just saying that Tomlinson can be stopped by good defenses and had numbers to prove it - he didn't say other great RB weren't the same.

lander · Jan 12, 2007

BelichickFan said:
No need to get all thin skinned, he's just saying that Tomlinson can be stopped by good defenses and had numbers to prove it - he didn't say other great RB weren't the same.

well you guys better hope Seymour, Wilfork and Warren get more penetration than last year at Foxboro or LT will put up 130 again.

tssd888 · Jan 12, 2007

BelichickFan said:
No need to get all thin skinned, he's just saying that Tomlinson can be stopped by good defenses and had numbers to prove it - he didn't say other great RB weren't the same.

but those numbers are with taking away his longest run. The same can be said about any RB or any offensive player for that matter. Why don't we go back and view Randy Moss career stats without any receptions for 30+ yards? I bet he looks average.

to me it's like the arguement in baseball that a pitcher only threw "1 bad pitch". Guess what? he still threw the pitch and it was still jacked out for a 3 run bomb which decided the game.

Oswlek · Jan 12, 2007

lander said:
well you guys better hope Seymour, Wilfork and Warren get more penetration than last year at Foxboro or LT will put up 130 again.

OK, let's get this straight. Last year means nothing, absolutely nothing. THe following has changed since last year:

1) Seymour was hurt and missed the entire second half
2) Wilfork was in the middle of his second year funk. NE made him move off the ball a yard so he could decipher a play better and since then he has been clearly one of the best 2-3 NTs in the league.
3) Willie was playing with a broken hand
4) Colvin is playing significantly better
5) Beisel, Brown, Gus Scott and Starks will not see the field.

Please stop using last year as a basis for how SD will do this week. Or, better yet, I hope that you are a prominent coach with SD.

Flying Fungi · Jan 12, 2007

Let's add a Pat Kirwin observation to this:

http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9918816

How do the Patriots contain LaDainian Tomlinson ?
I was surprised to see that Tomlinson has 38 games since 2002 with less then 100 yards rushing. The team's record in those 38 games is 15-23. In the Chargers' two losses this season (Kansas City and Baltimore), L.T. did not have 100 yards on the ground. There's no doubt in my mind the Patriots will study the teams that use a 3-4 defense and have played San Diego over the past two years. In the last two Steelers games against San Diego, the Ravens game from earlier this season, and the Cowboys game from last year, Tomlinson ran a total of 75 times for 268 yards at 3.5 yards per carry.
The secret to those 3-4 defenses against Tomlinson may be to never penetrate the front seven, which the two-gap defenses do very well and contain the run with corners in Cover Two. Train your players to work down the line of scrimmage, preventing the cutback lanes that come with an over-aggressive approach, and tackle the great back for a 2-yard gain. As one coach who faced Tomlinson numerous times said, "You can't stop him as a runner, but if you're patient and extremely disciplined, holding him under 100 is possible." He also added that Bill Belichick, with his big defensive line and savvy veteran linebackers, has just the kind of team to do it right. Dealing with the effective blocking of fullback Lorenzo Neal is critical, and matching up against tight end Antonio Gates still has to be solved, but I am expecting the front seven from New England to be very patient against the great MVP.

lander · Jan 12, 2007

Oswlek said:
OK, let's get this straight. Last year means nothing, absolutely nothing. THe following has changed since last year:

1) Seymour was hurt and missed the entire second half
2) Wilfork was in the middle of his second year funk. NE made him move off the ball a yard so he could decipher a play better and since then he has been clearly one of the best 2-3 NTs in the league.
3) Willie was playing with a broken hand
4) Colvin is playing significantly better
5) Beisel, Brown, Gus Scott and Starks will not see the field.

Please stop using last year as a basis for how SD will do this week. Or, better yet, I hope that you are a prominent coach with SD.

Like I said, you'd better hope for better penetration from your D-line.

Oswlek · Jan 12, 2007

lander said:
Like I said, you'd better hope for better penetration from your D-line.

Actually, I just hope that they hold their gaps. NE does not need penetration, they just need to not get pushed.

BelichickFan · Jan 12, 2007

Oswlek said:
Actually, I just hope that they hold their gaps. NE does not need penetration, they just need to not get pushed.

Yeah, we just need him to see nothing to run through, to have to cut outside and find a LB filling the gap.

BelichickFan · Jan 12, 2007

tssd888 said:
but those numbers are with taking away his longest run. The same can be said about any RB or any offensive player for that matter. Why don't we go back and view Randy Moss career stats without any receptions for 30+ yards? I bet he looks average.

You're right but the numbers fit with Football Outsiders' stats that Tomlinson is the best in the league due to his long runs and just above average (13th in the league) on the median play. I've said all week, stopping the LONG runs is the key for our defense this week. The rest will take care of itself.

JoeSixPat · Jan 12, 2007

Tomlinson is not Superman

Well, I've never actually seen the two of them in the same room together at the same time, so I can't say for sure...

But Tomlinson is currently the all time leader in yards per game at something like 127 yards per game for his career average.

That's phenomenal... but what does it mean?

Not much really, as the Pats have won against some pretty similar competition in the past, including Edgerin James when he was with Indy who had a similar per game average (123 yards per game if I remember my talk radio facts) and a few other good RBs as well

I expect that Tomlinson will get his yards but the game will be decided on how well the Patriots Red Zone defense does. Hold SD to FGs and we're in good shape.

Now the Patriots need to make the most of their opportunities as well. In my opinion we squandered too many Red Zone opportunities ourselves last week, leaving with FGs instead of TDs on too many occasions.

We need to make sure that we convert TDs while holding SD to FGs - that's the main key to the game as I see it

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