A rational how much longer for Brady discussion

As Brady often says, one injury and it could be over. But that's the case from the time you first step on the field at any level...for every player regardless of age. Tedy underscores the key is protection, as most of us realize. And as Williamson notes the kind of weapons (like these 2 TE's) that allow you to avoid sitting duck kind of injuries.

His deal (as they all have been) is ideal for another incremental extension any time after next season if they want to manage him on their terms. At that point you are simply converting salary to bonus and tacking on a couple of more salary years. Those create potential dead cap, but not so significant - particularly with the cap rising exponentially in 2014 and beyond - as to be a roster killer given he will probably be followed by a youngster on an affordable rookie deal perhaps in tandem with a veteran mentor/backup on an insurance deal. And there is always the tag to play out the string. It limits who else they could use it on, but under the new CBA it's an affordable QB stop gap for a guy who has been earning at the top of the market anyway.

He has after all put up his best statistical production in his 30's. And with all time records increasingly in range as a result, he is nothing if not goal oriented and driven. He won't stay past his ability to be an elite player, but that said, barring another catastrophic injury, I honestly see him starting here in 2016 and possibly thru 2017.

Here is scary news for the rest of the NFL: Tom Brady wants to play quarterback for the New England Patriots until he's 40 years old.

That means, theoretically, Brady and coach Bill Belichick plan to dominate the AFC East and keep New England in title contention until 2017. Brady will turn 35 in August.

But five more years? That is an eternity in the NFL in which the average career span is approximately 3-4 seasons. Does Brady have enough in the tank to play 17 years at such a demanding position?

Click to expand...

Former quarterback and ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer played 14 seasons in the NFL and believes Brady will reach that goal. According to Dilfer, the key to quarterback durability is the lower body, not the upper body.

"What goes first with quarterbacks is their legs. Once you lose your legs, you kind of lose everything else," Dilfer explained. "I remember Kurt Warner talking about that late in his career, and obviously I experienced it. Every quarterback experiences it. I think Tom works hard enough to maintain the leg strength he needs to be as precise as he is, and I think he's a competitor that if he puts something in his mind that he's going to do something, he's a guy that goes out and does it.

"There's very few people in sports like that...I fully expect him to be playing at 40 if he says he's going to."

Click to expand...

Brady's Hall of Fame legacy is secure. If he retired today, Brady already would be among the top quarterbacks ever to play the position. He has three Super Bowl rings and could tie his childhood hero -- Joe Montana -- for the most playoff victories (16) with a win over Baltimore Sunday.

But the difference between being a top-five quarterback and the greatest ever could come down to these next five years. Brady can tie Montana (four) and Terry Bradshaw (four) for the most titles in these playoffs. But if Brady plays through age 40, he has a legitimate shot at being the winningest quarterback in NFL history.

Click to expand...

How much longer for Tom Brady? - AFC East Blog - ESPN

I was going to wait a few weeks to post. How quiet has Mallet been? No news of out late drinking, getting arrested, being a party animal, etc. Talent was never a question, he may end up being the steal of that draft. Having said that, and if Brady is here another five years, it's probably just a matter of show casing him for a #1 (and yes, BB will trade it down, which I don't have a problem).

I could definitely see Brady playing until he's 40. That's how old Brett Favre was during his last season and I think Brady's game is much more suited to play into his 40s than Favre's was. As long as he stays healthy and keeps his arm strength, he can play well into his 40s. His decision making and ability to read a defense isn't going to slow down. QBs that take a lot of hits, scramble around, and make plays on the run (Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Cutler, etc) are the ones that are usually finished by their mid 30s. Of course, I would have said the same exact thing about Manning 6 months ago, so this is awfully difficult to predict.

It's really hard to say. Have we ever seen another QB who has: a skill set touched by the football gods; an incredible work ethic; laser focus; a brain that was made for the position; an almost pathological need for perfection; the ability to throw to absolutely anybody; an FU attitude; teammates who'd run through a brick wall for him; a massive, 11-year-old (and growing) chip on his shoulder; and, oh, an all-time great coach and owner?

I don't think 40 is too much of a reach.

My whole worry recently has been a situation with Brady getting injured like Drew was, and having Mallet step up and take the reins. Potentially, I believe he's good enough to do that, but potential doesn't always equate to reality, as so many other QB's have shown in the past.

However, with Belichick's ability to see things we mere mortals don't, there still a very good chance that TFB's future replacement is already on the sidelines, watching and learning.

If Mallet is willing to do that, to wait and be the hear-apparent, then he might very well have a bright future here too.

When he decides to retire beeing this year or next, I'll just be happy that I got to witness greatness every sunday.

I think how this season ends up playing out could go a long ways in determining his decision. A SB win could shorten the time. A AFCC loss could lengthen it.

What a morose bunch of threads!

They never wait. They are either too good to or not good enough to. Same deal with staff...

A lot of folks here need to believe an heir apparent is always on the radar if not in the wings. The beauty of the system the way Bill runs his is you don't need or necessarily even want that. Because he identifies and coaches up/develops stop gaps who can run the scheme at a reasonable level at worst and an above average level at best. That and the fact that he doesn't focus on one side of the ball at the expense of the other allows him to field a competitive team come what may. Not a slam dunk contender, but realistically that's not what he's focused on.

The mistake Polian made in Indy is he created a system to fit a pretty unique QB and then he failed to even attempt to develop his backups because quite honestly, he couldn't. Anyone who could run that system successfully should be starting. It's a simple scheme that is totally dependent on the skill of the QB to manipulate defenses and make pre snap reads and then execute with precision and timing. And there is zero margin for error since so much focus goes on offensive execution by the skill players in the passing game that by and large all other aspects of the game are treated as secondary concerns.

As a result there are going to be a lot of changes in Indy, wholesale changes on both sides of the ball as well as on the staff, just in anticipation that the Manning era is over. If it's not it's going to be even freakier... I know a lot of fans here and there think they slipped on a pile of poop and landed in a bed of roses. I think those folks are in for a rude awakening.

We run complex schemes on both sides of the ball. At the moment the offense is carrying the defense as it transitions (retools). That pendulum can and will swing in the other direction as needed, just like it had at the outset of Brady's career and at the mid point. That's part of the overall system here, and why it endures. It isn't one sided or top heavy or talent centric. It's adaptable and over time it strives to be balanced well enough that it can anticipate trends or adjust to fill needs. It's never built to win it all now. That's a recipe for disaster more likely to be employed by of called for by shortsighted individuals. It's built to be sustainable at a consistent level over the long haul and it would appear that teams who adhere to that philosophy win more often than not (see NE and PIT - winning half of the championships contended for in a 32 team league in decade). Pittsburgh has gotten a little sideways in the process, but getting back to their roots (system) appears to be on the agenda for them this off season. They got a little caught up in letting the tail wag the dog. I think that is the real reason Cowher took his sabatical. It paid off short term but the writing is on the wall long term and they know it.

Offenses and defenses have a way of catching up with each other. The most significant skill set that this organization will be looking for in Brady's eventual successor will be more than the ability to make the throws, it will encompass the humility to be situationally adaptable, the drive and capacity to do whatever it takes, and the poise to lead under pressure. Cause there will be pressure...and criticism. And oddly guys with first round grades don't always deal well with that kind of pressure because they seldom encountered it, or much adversity, on their path to the NFL.

As for young Mr. Mallett, this offseason will tell the tale. I'm hoping as a fan that he's too good to just wait and we can flip him for more picks that may one day down the road (say in 3-4 seasons become Brady's understudy who is his succesor. I don't expect that guy to be his replacement, though. Those don't come around all that often.

Why on earth would you be thinking about this today of all days?!?

vyrago said:

What a morose bunch of threads!

Click to expand...

Not sure why you would claim that. A few morose posts of course, but that's always the case here. Like the author stated, 17 years including 5+ more potential years is an eternity in the NFL, these what have you done for me lately days moreso than ever.

Haley said:

Why on earth would you be thinking about this today of all days?!?

Click to expand...

For the same reason that, even as I type this, Belichick has some staffer or staff working on game plans and scouting reports for both the Giants and the Forty-Niners, and also has some folks doing scouting for the East-West Shrine Game, etc.

Today is incredibly important, to be sure. I'm not understating that in any way. But win or lose, the day will end, and tomorrow will come, and the team will still be there, and next season will be on the horizon. Player situations will need to be addressed, etc.

Belichick plays the long game. It's why New England has become so dominant since he's been here. Always contending.

Gwedd said:

For the same reason that, even as I type this, Belichick has some staffer or staff working on game plans and scouting reports for both the Giants and the Forty-Niners, and also has some folks doing scouting for the East-West Shrine Game, etc.

Today is incredibly important, to be sure. I'm not understating that in any way. But win or lose, the day will end, and tomorrow will come, and the team will still be there, and next season will be on the horizon. Player situations will need to be addressed, etc.

Belichick plays the long game. It's why New England has become so dominant since he's been here. Always contending.

Click to expand...

But you are not Belichick. He is tasked with having to look long. You are a fan. You don't carry any such burden.

And even Belichick is not likely contemplating anything like this today. At least, he shouldn't be. He has far more important immediate concerns and I imagine he is focused on the immediate for today.

Great topic for the offseason (which I hope starts February 6th) :rocker:

It depends on how well the O-line protects him and how many more rings he secures. Brady wants to surpass Montana, the sooner that happens the sooner the chip on his shoulder goes away.

Mallett may or may not end up being a steal, but judgments on him are way too premature, imo. It's a longshot that any drafted QB turns into a competent starter, and for the Pats to hit in a later round again is probably against the odds.

Brady is the GOAT, or close to it - without him, even this past year's team likely struggles to even make the playoffs. He has given this fanbase a very unique era, where they don't have to really worry that much about untimely INT's or off days. I doubt that would characterize Mallett.

Few things to note, regarding Tom's quest to play till he is 40....

1. The Patriots have invested heavily on the offensive with the selection of Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon. We, as fans, can't determine how successful Cannon will be to this team given his bout with cancer and his road to recovery, but he showed he could be a force while at TCU.

Along with the re-up of Logan Mankins, Brady should have a an offensive front that has proven (for the most part) to be well suited in keep him up right and able to push the ball down the field. I think we all expect the Patriots to select the center of the future in this year's draft. As we have seen with other others, when there is too much transition along the offensive line, communication goes out the window and breakdowns occur - leading to sacks and injuries.

This should help in keeping Brady healthy for years to come.

2. Gronk and Hernandez should extend the career of Tom Brady as well, whereas Welker's decline will hurt the Patriot QB's efforts to play to the age of 40.

When the day comes that Welker is no longer with the Patriots, whether it be at the start of 2012 or many years after, there is little faith that the Patriots will be able to find his replacement. Over the years, the Patriots have drafted and signed wide receivers, with no success. The offense seems to be designed around how to utilize Welker, who can consistently catch 100+ balls a season.

For Brady, the team has to find their "next" wide receiver to keep the machine going strong.

3. A strong running game is a QB's best friend.

It is yet to be seen if Vereen or Ridley will be the "guys" in New England, but it is certain that having a running game will take significant pressure off Brady and would therefore extend his career. We've seen Terrell Davis help bring Elway a title and Favre come out of retirement to play with Adrian Peterson. At some point, I think the offensive game plan has to be more evenly divided despite the league rules favoring passing.

4. How long does Belichick want to do this?

Do we really think that Brady will want to begin anew with a different head coach? I don't think so, but obviously we don't know the future. If it were the case that Bill named a successor and Tom was onboard with new coach, the show could easily go on with few hurdles. Granted, there will have to be some hurdles when replacing one of the greatest coaches ever to coach in the NFL.

Given the recent re-hire of McDaniels, I think the team may very well have a successor IF Bill decided to make a change in the next few years. Although, I would hope the team doesn't give him the freedom that Bill has and the freedom Denver gave him when they made him their head coach.

Haley said:

Why on earth would you be thinking about this today of all days?!?

Click to expand...

It's a good topic addressing an article written yesterday and a nice break from everything AFCCG or asinine what if scenario's on possible SB opponents.

In regards to the TB topic. What's the average retiring age for franchise QB's? Montana, Elway and Marino all retired at 38.

Gwedd said:

Belichick plays the long game. It's why New England has become so dominant since he's been here. Always contending.

Click to expand...

That is exactly why he flips the picks and doesn't play fantasy football.

Fball said:

Mallett may or may not end up being a steal, but judgments on him are way too premature, imo. It's a longshot that any drafted QB turns into a competent starter, and for the Pats to hit in a later round again is probably against the odds.

Brady is the GOAT, or close to it - without him, even this past year's team likely struggles to even make the playoffs. He has given this fanbase a very unique era, where they don't have to really worry that much about untimely INT's or off days. I doubt that would characterize Mallett.

Click to expand...

I never stated that Mallet was a steal, just potential to be. He was the most talented qb in the last draft according to the analysts.
Your bringing up a struggling Brady after he just broke a play-off TD record and could have put it out of reach for decades? Other then that, great post.