David Givens:What should be offered?

I know many will disagree, they did when I said it before, but I do not see Givens as a hot commodity on the FA market.
I think he will be viewed as a product of the system, a system that spreads the ball around and gives opportunity to every receiver.
I've always felt that, outside of a complete all-around guy who catches 90-100 passes (they are in their own category) at the WR position teams are looking for physical qualities (i.e. blaizng speed or great size) over productivity within a system.
No doubt I could be wrong, and have been before, but I think most teams will see Givens as a guy that they can find a bunch of to do what he does or close to it.
There has been a lot of talk like "look what PAtten got, surely Givens gets more" but if you look at production they are almost identical in the same role.
Why did Patten attract that offer from the Redskins? They flat out said it was his blazing speed to stretch the field.
Givens had a career high in receptions this year and ranked 24th in the AFC.

My opinion is teams will consider him a WR who is cap[able of starting, a product of the system, and a guy who has no unique skills.

Teams will want him, but I think its ludicrous to believe he gets $5mill a year.

aj,

What offer would you make to Givens, if any, before going on to other options?

AndyJohnson said:

I know many will disagree, they did when I said it before, but I do not see Givens as a hot commodity on the FA market.
I think he will be viewed as a product of the system, a system that spreads the ball around and gives opportunity to every receiver.
I've always felt that, outside of a complete all-around guy who catches 90-100 passes (they are in their own category) at the WR position teams are looking for physical qualities (i.e. blaizng speed or great size) over productivity within a system.
No doubt I could be wrong, and have been before, but I think most teams will see Givens as a guy that they can find a bunch of to do what he does or close to it.
There has been a lot of talk like "look what PAtten got, surely Givens gets more" but if you look at production they are almost identical in the same role.
Why did Patten attract that offer from the Redskins? They flat out said it was his blazing speed to stretch the field.
Givens had a career high in receptions this year and ranked 24th in the AFC.

My opinion is teams will consider him a WR who is cap[able of starting, a product of the system, and a guy who has no unique skills.

Teams will want him, but I think its ludicrous to believe he gets $5mill a year.

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AndyJohnson said:

I think its ludicrous to believe he gets $5mill a year.

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No one in this thread opined that he will get that much

AndyJohnson said:

I've always felt that, outside of a complete all-around guy who catches 90-100 passes (they are in their own category) at the WR position teams are looking for physical qualities (i.e. blaizng speed or great size) over productivity within a system.

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How do you explain away Darrell Jackson and Derrick getting big money deals BEFORE they had 90-catch seasons??

Miguel said:

How do you explain away Darrell Jackson and Derrick getting big money deals BEFORE they had 90-catch seasons??

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Derrick who?

Here are Jackson numbers.


2000 Seattle Seahawks 16 9 53 713 13.5 71 6 8 2 31
2001 Seattle Seahawks 16 16 70 1081 15.4 64 8 20 7 44
2002 Seattle Seahawks 13 13 62 877 14.1 48 4 13 2 37
2003 Seattle Seahawks 16 16 68 1137 16.7 80 9 18 4 54
2004 Seattle Seahawks 16 16 87 1199 13.8 56 7 16 2 59


I dont know when he got his big contract, but these numbers are impressive.
Are you saying Jackson doesnt have great tools? He surely is closer to a speed burner than Givens.
If you are asking why he got paid like a 90 catch guy before the 90 catch season, it would seem to me since his own team paid him, they saw him as a 90 catch guy. I dont think anyone sees Givens as that.

When did he get that contract, and what was it?

If Derrick is Mason, he had back to back 95 and 96 catches before getting his FA deal.

Not sure what your comparision is.

mgteich said:

aj,

What offer would you make to Givens, if any, before going on to other options?

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I suck at gauging these things.
I dont keep close track of the market of what comparable guys get.

The best way Id describe what to pay Givens is like this:

And this ignores the market realities, just a rough way I'd arrive at the answer.

You have about a 92mill cap for 53 guys. Lets call it 87 since other factors go in such as ps, IRd guys etc.

You have, IMO about 28 'starters'. That includes things like 3rd down RB, 3rd WR, 2nd TE, nickel back, pass rush specialist, etc that arent considered starters but are as important.
You have 25 'backups'. You should be able to pay your 25 backups around 20mill of cap room. (This counts rookies of course who are lower than that, so many of those 25 could be as high as 1.5 mill).
That leaves me 67 mill for 28 starters, or an average of 2.4mill each.

(I recognize the top stars take more away, but the first contract draftees should balance it out).

Out of my 28 'starters' I would not consider David Givens to be a guy who is in the top half of most important starters. (By that I mean role, ability, drop off to replacement, and importance of the position in the scheme).
I'd put him maybe in the middle and say 2.4 mill per is something I can live with.
I would sign him long term. One factor into this though is backloading of deals and that the cap will be higher 5 years from now.
I would pay him a deal that averages 3mill a year if I went 5 years, but would expect the first 3 to average cap hits of no more than 2.4-2.5mill.

5 yrs 15mill

Say, a 6 mill sb and salaries of 700k, 1mill, 1.9mill, 2.5, 2.9

Cap hits 1.9, 2.2, 3.1, 3.7, 4.1

Thats just a rough structure. Im wouldnt care if the sb were higher and salaires lower because he will be around a while.

AndyJohnson said:

I suck at gauging these things.
I dont keep close track of the market of what comparable guys get.

The best way Id describe what to pay Givens is like this:

And this ignores the market realities, just a rough way I'd arrive at the answer.

You have about a 92mill cap for 53 guys. Lets call it 87 since other factors go in such as ps, IRd guys etc.

You have, IMO about 28 'starters'. That includes things like 3rd down RB, 3rd WR, 2nd TE, nickel back, pass rush specialist, etc that arent considered starters but are as important.
You have 25 'backups'. You should be able to pay your 25 backups around 20mill of cap room. (This counts rookies of course who are lower than that, so many of those 25 could be as high as 1.5 mill).
That leaves me 67 mill for 28 starters, or an average of 2.4mill each.

(I recognize the top stars take more away, but the first contract draftees should balance it out).

Out of my 28 'starters' I would not consider David Givens to be a guy who is in the top half of most important starters. (By that I mean role, ability, drop off to replacement, and importance of the position in the scheme).
I'd put him maybe in the middle and say 2.4 mill per is something I can live with.
I would sign him long term. One factor into this though is backloading of deals and that the cap will be higher 5 years from now.
I would pay him a deal that averages 3mill a year if I went 5 years, but would expect the first 3 to average cap hits of no more than 2.4-2.5mill.

5 yrs 15mill

Say, a 6 mill sb and salaries of 700k, 1mill, 1.9mill, 2.5, 2.9

Cap hits 1.9, 2.2, 3.1, 3.7, 4.1

Thats just a rough structure. Im wouldnt care if the sb were higher and salaires lower because he will be around a while.

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I don't think that is unreasonable at all. Here is the issue. Will Givens find a team that will offer more? I think he will. It doesn't have to be at a 5 million level, but I think he will demand more than your reasonable offer. If he does, then say goodbye.

I think 3 to 3.5 million for Givens is very reasonable. He's one of my favorite players and I hope we keep him for the long term.

AndyJohnson said:

Derrick who?

Here are Jackson numbers.


2000 Seattle Seahawks 16 9 53 713 13.5 71 6 8 2 31
2001 Seattle Seahawks 16 16 70 1081 15.4 64 8 20 7 44
2002 Seattle Seahawks 13 13 62 877 14.1 48 4 13 2 37
2003 Seattle Seahawks 16 16 68 1137 16.7 80 9 18 4 54
2004 Seattle Seahawks 16 16 87 1199 13.8 56 7 16 2 59


I dont know when he got his big contract, but these numbers are impressive.
Are you saying Jackson doesnt have great tools?

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No. But I am saying that he does not have great measurables.
[/quote]

He surely is closer to a speed burner than Givens.

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We will have to disagree on that.

If you are asking why he got paid like a 90 catch guy before the 90 catch season, it would seem to me since his own team paid him, they saw him as a 90 catch guy. I dont think anyone sees Givens as that.

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Before 2004 Darrell Jackson was most known for his penchant to dropping passes.

I don't recall anyone seeing Troy Brown as a 90 catch guy before he had two in a row.

When did he get that contract, and what was it?

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In 2004.

If Derrick is Mason, he had back to back 95 and 96 catches before getting his FA deal.

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Not exactly true. Mason has signed two big FA deals during his career. He had his 95 and 96 catches season AFTER he signed his 1st deal.

AndyJohnson said:

I suck at gauging these things.

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Then you should refrain opining "its ludicrous to believe he gets $5mill a year".

Irony - Andy does not "see Givens as a hot commodity on the FA market" but his proposal would give
1.) Givens a larger contract than Patten received.
2.) a contract larger than a great number of wide receivers who have better measurables.

In 2004 only 8 wideouts took home more than $6.7 million. In 2004 only about 20 wideouts had a cap number of at least $3 million

Id see Kc, Miami, Philly or the Panthers getting more money for Givens, which he has not played a full season ... I wish he would stay, but he is about 97 percent gone

I just found a list of the 2006 FA's at WR and adding in for a couple of cap cuts, I don't think Givens will be offered as much $ as I had previously thought. There are just too many other middle of the road guys out there teams could get for much less than even $2mil/yr...

http://www.theredzone.org/2006/freeagents/showposition.asp?Position=WR

all positions

http://www.theredzone.org/2006/freeagents/

Sean Pa Patriot said:

Id see Kc, Miami, Philly or the Panthers getting more money for Givens, which he has not played a full season ... I wish he would stay, but he is about 97 percent gone

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no no it is much closer to 96.5%

Since Givens doesn't have the gawdy stats like 90-100 catches, or have blazing speed, the typical free-agent-foolish teams (e.g. Washington, Oakland) won't bid on him. But a truly smart organization might appreciate him. Philadelphia needs receivers. Pittsburgh is even a scarier thought --- Givens would fit great there IMO. I vote we try fairly hard to keep him.

Miguel said:

Then you should refrain opining "its ludicrous to believe he gets $5mill a year".

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Where do I email you to get approval before offering an opinion?

Miguel said:

Irony - Andy does not "see Givens as a hot commodity on the FA market" but his proposal would give
1.) Givens a larger contract than Patten received.
2.) a contract larger than a great number of wide receivers who have better measurables.

In 2004 only 8 wideouts took home more than $6.7 million. In 2004 only about 20 wideouts had a cap number of at least $3 million

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1) Who ever said Patten was a 'hot commodity on the FA market'?
2) Which WRs with better 'measurables' got smaller contracts?

In 2004 how many WRs received signing bonusses? 8 may be a VERY high percentage of the ones who signed new contracts.

20 had a higher cap number than 3mill.......And my proposal has Givens being above that in 2008. How many WRs do you think will be above 3mil cap #s by 2008? How many in 2004 had AVERAGE CAP HITS of over 3mill?
How many had cap numbers as lows as the 1.5mill or so I have Givens getting in 2006?

I usually respect your facts, arguments, points, even though we may disagree, but this was severely a case of twisting the facts to support your argument.

AndyJohnson said:

Where do I email you to get approval before offering an opinion?

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Andy is now in his martyr mode. I think that it is funny/strange that someone who admittedy "sucks at gauging this things" can then think someone's else opinion on the same manner is ludricious.

Nothing is simple in the salary cap world. I look at Givens this way.
Who is worth more to the Pats at 3.6m? Givens or D.Starks. I don't
want to hear about Starks should problem. The simple question is.
Who produces more in 06? I see no reason why we shouldn't go at
least that high. Maybe, even creeping up towards 4m per. He will be
much harder to replace than a guy who has never done anything for
the New England Patriots. I think we can get a good corner at 1 or 2.
Battle it out with Hobbs and Samuel for a starter position. Still have
decent depth with Gay and maybe C.Scott coming back next year.
Oh yeah, I've already cut T.Poole too.

Here are D Jax numbers.....

Jackson, Darrell

WR (#82)

Salary History

2004 1000000.00
2005 1500000.00
2006 2500000.00
2007 3250000.00
2008 4000000.00
2009 4750000.00

Don't know the bonus.

6 years 20 mil + bonus.