Bill Barnwell on Pats/Giants: Dynamic Win Probability and Eli's intent on the PI play

Something Something Something on the Bus

The Patriots would have been well advised to follow the NFL's mandate for youth and PLAY 60 on Sunday, since they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in a stunning 24-20 home loss to the Giants. The narratives coming out of the game aren't as simple as they seem.

First, the important part: What an exciting game! The live win probability chart suitably resembles a frantic heartbeat on a heart monitor over the final five minutes. The Giants had a 93 percent chance of winning after Tom Brady threw an incomplete pass to Rob Gronkowski on third down with 1:44 left. That fell all the way to 19 percent when Brady hooked up with Gronkowski on fourth down to take the lead. It got as low as 14 percent before Eli Manning found Jake Ballard up the seam for 28 yards, moving the ball to the Patriots' 33-yard line. After the pass interference penalty that moved the ball to the 1-yard line, it was at 88 percent, and after Manning eluded a well-timed blitz to get out of the pocket and throw the ball away on first down, the Giants hit 96 percent when Manning found Ballard again for the game-winning score.

For the Giants, the narrative is going to be pushed in the wrong direction. Eli Manning has had an impressive season, but Sunday was far from his best game. When the Giants were up 10-0 10-3 with 18 minutes left and the ball inside the New England two-yard line, Manning took a delay of game on third down and then followed it with an unconscionable interception on a throw off his back foot. A touchdown there might very well kill off the game as a contest, and a field goal forces a team without a point on the board to score two touchdowns in 18 minutes to even have a shot at winning. In a situation that called for conservative behavior, Manning nearly cost his team the game. The three points that the Giants left on the field with the interception were very nearly the margin of victory for the Patriots. Eli deserves credit for his final drive, but some blame for needing it.

Instead, give some credit to the Giants defense. Holding the Patriots to 20 points at home isn't easy, and the Giants did a much better job of getting pressure on Brady than their two sacks would indicate. And while the New York secondary only has one above-average cornerback (Corey Webster), the G-Men got a surprisingly solid game out of Michael Coe, who notably broke up a third down in the second half with an impressive pass deflection.

As for the Patriots, well, their issues with defensive personnel reared their head again during the fourth quarter. When star safety Patrick Chung went down with an injury on the final drive, the Patriots had to sub in undrafted free agent Sergio Brown. Brown committed an indefensible pass interference penalty against Victor Cruz to set the Giants up on the 1-yard line on a pass Manning was trying to throw away. That was set up by the long completion, and followed by the touchdown throw, to Ballard, each of which came against linebacker Tracy White in coverage. White's a 30-year-old special teams demon who rarely sees the field on defense. Those are the exact spots where guys like Brandon Meriweather or Jermaine Cunningham would be if they had been effective enough to remain on the active roster. Instead, Meriweather's on the bench in Chicago, Cunningham's a healthy scratch, and the Giants were able to beat a pair of undrafted free agents when it mattered most.

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When star safety Patrick Chung went down with an injury on the final drive, the Patriots had to sub in undrafted free agent Sergio Brown.

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bunuel said:

Good bit. Not sure if Barnwell was being ironic about Chung or not but I got a chuckle.

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