Great post. I can see that you put a lot of thought into this.
A couple of thoughts:
Great comments. The point of my mock was to stimulate discussion, so this is great.
1.) I really, really don't see Tennessee using a top ten pick on a corner this year. They have a really nice safety tandem and a good due of corners. The problem is that they have been hit hard by injuries. What they need is help on the defensive line: both at defensive tackle and at defensive end. You fix that and I promise you that team will have a top 5 defense.
As I mentioned, Tennessee could easily go DL first, with Derrick Morgan being a likely candidate. But I could also see them going for Haden. Cortland Finnegan is terrific, but Nick Harper will be 36 next September and is probably better suited for nickel duty. Their subs got shredded. I think Joe Haden is a top 15 pick on his play alone and will blow people away at the combine, and that Tennessee won't be able to resist the idea of a secondary consisting of Haden, Finnergan, Griffin and Hope.
There's likely to be tremendous DL depth in this draft, and I think Tennessee can address that later. They won't get another chance at a blue chip CB. I had them adding DL help later on, giving them Adrian Clayborn at #73 (an absolute steal, as he would be possibly as good or even better than Derrick Morgan for them, with nice versatility on the DL) and Louisiana Tech DT D'Anthony Smith at #105 (another steal). Both are high upside players, and Tennessee has a history of liking small school DL prospects (Eastern Michigan's Jason Jones in 2008 and Winston-Salem State's William Hayes in 2007).
2.) We won't be able to resign Watson. The man has talent and other people know that. Other teams are going to throw cash at the kid and I think he's going to take it. Why? Because we don't use him enough in the passing game. He's more than a blocker and he knows that.
You may be right. I hope not. I like Watson, and I want us to use our top picks on OL and DL/pass rushers, not on replacing our TE with someone who probably won't be an upgrade in 2010. Watson seems pretty low key and loyal, and it's possible he'll choose to stay with the Pats. But you could well be right.
3.) If Matt Light just walks after the 2010 season, we'll most likely get a 3rd round compensation pick just for the fact that he'll be the starting left tackle on a team. We'd basically be doing them a favor. i think we can get better value. A lot of teams need a good offensive tackle, but they are out of range of a good one. Someone is going to get desperate and that team could pay a low 2nd.
Matt Light will be 33 in June of 2011. I don't see anyone giving him a contract that would get us a 3rd round comp pick. Maybe a 4th, probably a 5th. Plus, we wouldn't get the pick until 2012. With all of the depth likely to come out in this draft, I'd take an early 2010 3rd over a 2012 4th-5th any day. #70 in 2009 would have gotten us Michael Johnson, who would have been a big improvement in our pass rush. The options at #70 in 2010 are likely better. But I'm happy to get more if someone is willing to make a better offer. I'd love a low 2nd. Doubt we'll get it, but I'd love it.
4.) I like Volmer too, but it's a little too soon to call him dominant.
You're right. I did say "
emerging as a dominant LT". But you're right.
5.) If you don't think that Matt Light is worth a 2nd round pick, then Adalius Thomas sure isn't. They are about the same age and Light has been more productive. Also I'm sure Atlanta's GM is watching Patriots games and has trouble finding Mr. Invisible.
You're probably right, and Everlong has already pointed this out. But I think the odds are that Thomas is gone after this season, and the Pats will try to get something for him. Maybe not a 2nd rounder. But stranger things have happened, especially if he shows something in the last 5 games. Guys with his skills and versatility have value, and he may just need a fresh venue and a new system. After all, we gave up a 3rd plus a 5th for Derrick Burgess.
6.) Even though St. Louis drafted an offensive lineman last year, they didn't fix their line. It still has problems. I don't think it would be right to put a young QB back there. Plus, Spags is a defensive minded head coach and would love a guy like McCoy on his defensive line.
Bulger is old and can't cut it for St. Louis. They need to start grooming a franchise QB, and it takes time. They have a franchise left tackle, they will be drafting in the top 3, and no other OL would be worth their pick. They can get OL depth later. Plus they have a very early 2nd round pick and can get a DT there, or trade up into the late 1st for someone like Brian Price, who may be just as good for them as McCoy. I thought they needed a DE to complement Chris Long more than a DT, so I gave them Everson Griffen, which I thought was generous.
The Rams passed up a chance at a franchise QB prospect to draft Jason Smith. They're suffering with Bulger this year. I don't think they pass up the chance again, especially if someone like Locker is available.
7.) Taylor Mays has struggled in coverage this year. The difference between the talent of Mays and a talent of Berry is like measuring the distance between Tennessee and California. I'm not saying that Mays is terrible and should be out of the first round all together. What I am saying is that Berry's body of work will at least make teams ask: Why doesn't the other first round safety have this? I say Mays falls a little bit.
I don't think Mays is in Berry's class. I dropped him to 15 based on my evaluation that he is a 20+ talent who will put up unreal numbers at the combine and go earlier, but probably not top 10. Darius Heyward-Bey wasn't a top 15 talent either. The farthest I can see Mays falling is to Dallas.
If Joe Haden is available I could see SF going for him over Mays, but in my mock Haden was gone (see #1 and #9).
8.) Dunlap's DUI and forthcomming suspension make him fall a bit. The jests drafted an athletic freak with numerous inconsistencies last year. They might be a little gun shy this time. At least Gholston had the common sense to call a cab.
I did this mock before Dunlap's DUI came out. I originally had the Jets taking Cameron Heyward at #16. I could see that happening (or even Allen Bailey, who should wow at the combine). Arthur Jones was an option before his injury, but I doubt he goes that high right now. DT is also an option if Mount Cody is available, given Kris Jenkins' injury history.
I can see Dunlap slipping quite a bit, and possibly falling within our reach, or pushing another pass rushing prospect down to us. Not sure if I would want him or how he fits on the Pats team, but he is an intriguing talent.
9.) Baltimore is gonna draft a DB. Here is where I see Haden going. Two of the members in the Titans secondary have been significant starters on Superbowl winning teams. THOSE GUYS ARE GOOD! They've been hit hard by injuries this year. That's why we had such an easy time against them. Look out for Baltimore to make a potential trade here. They have been known to jump up to get players that they are interested in.
Baltimore needs DB help, but also help at WR and TE. I see them drafting somewhere in the 18-24 range, and I don't see Haden lasting anywhere near that long. I think Haden is a top 15 pick based on his play, but that he will blow away the combine. He's reported to run a sub-4.35 40 with a 40" vertical and to bench press over 20 reps at 225. If he puts up those kind of numbers he will be a top 10 pick, and probably out of trade-up range for Ozzie Newsome. I don't see any other CB being a clear 1st round value right now, thought that could change, and there's a lot of CB depth in the draft, so I chose to have Baltimore address WR in the 1st round and CB later on.
10. Philly barely uses the RB's that they have. I don't think that they spend a first round draft choice on a position that's frequently under utalized. Look for them to upgrade their O-line. Shawn Andrews is a head case that hasn't panned out. They lost to the freaking raiders because they couldn't protect their QB. They could easily trade with Seatle to steal Iupati from the Steelers.
Philly could easily do what you say, and go for either OL or DL help in the first round. The big reason I didn't have them go OL was that they've invested so much money in the position so far: Jason Peters, Shawn Andrews, Stacey Andrews and Winston Justice have all gotten big multiyear contracts.
I have to say, I loved the idea of Spiller to the Eagles in addition to Maclin and Jackson. No one imagined they would trade up to take Maclin last year after getting Jackson the year before. Spiller would give them a kind of New Orleans scenario of having too many offensive weapons to stop. NO is the darling of the NFL right now, and success breeds copycats.
11.) We're on the clock, an elite tight end is available: Start sweating. I'm serious. he's done it before and we may lose Watson. Get nervous.
I'm nervous. Especially if Watson leaves. I don't want him to leave, because I want us to focus our picks on the OL and DL/pass rush.
Great mock. Very indepth.
Thanks. As I said, the goal was not accuracy but to stimulate knowledge about prospects and thinking about the draft options. And thanks for the comments.
