4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

If the 4th down was converted people would be on here saying it was such a great call, etc, etc. Unfortunately it didn't work. BB likes to takes risks and unforunately this one didn't pay off...

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I think ultimately it sent a message to the D, which may be short term pain for long term gain. It was a ballsy call and of course 20-20 makes it look stupid. but if they made it the analysts would be all over how great BB is.

Enough, the game is over, Belichick will evaluate it and move on, you have to. We have some important games coming up and we need to learn from it and move on, yup I am not thirsty anymore.

Learn from it and move on...

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

DocE said:

The biggest head scratcher to me was stopping Joseph Addai with about 40 seconds on the clock from the 2 yard line on first and goal. Belichick already established "no confidence" in his defense by going for it on 4th and 2. WHY NOT GIVE THE OFFENSE 40 SECONDS TO GET A FIELD GOAL? When the Patriots tackled Addai short of the goal line on that play, it ended the game. There was zero chance the defense would stop 3 more plays from the 1.

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I would agree with this.

The decision to go on 4th down essentially says that BB did not believe that our D could keep Manning out of the end zone with 2 minutes left if he had punted, with the Colts likely starting from their own 20-30 yard line and having 70-80 yards to go.

If that's the case, then why believe that our defense can stop the Colts with 2 minutes left starting from our 29 yard line? And if you don't believe we can keep them out of the end zone, then why not let them score and give us as much time as possible to come back. Give TB the ball back with a minute or so and no timeouts, and the Pats still have a shot at driving the to within FG range.

The inconsistency baffles me.

The other things that bothered me were (1) our timeout management, which left us without the ability to stop the clock, and (2) the decision to throw a pass which put us exactly at the needed 1st down yardage, instead of giving us a couple yards cushion. Too close for comfort.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I am not going to read every post but I have read a few. I just think it was a horrible decision to make. It still would have been a horrible decision had they made it. Yes the defense was getting killed in the 4th but the Colts did punt a bunch of times plus Manning threw two picks throughout the game. If the pats punt it, the colts get the ball on the 30 yard line, they march up the field and score so be it. he Pats losing removed any hope of having the best record in the conference and also means that if they want to get to the SB the need to play at Indy again. Lastly BB more or less sent a big FU to the defense saying he does not trust them. I am still shocked that BB made this decision, I don’t know what else to say.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I'm surprised that so many of you support the decision.

I thought that it was the worst coaching decision that I have
witnessed in 50 years of watching Patriot's football. For a few
seconds I thought that Clive Rush was back as Patriot's head
coach. Gil Santos and Gino were stunned by Belichick's decision.

Frankly, I'm beginning to wonder if Belichick is still a great coach.
Great coaches exercise good judgment to win football games.
Mediocre coaches make poor decisions and lose football games.
Last night, Belichick was a mediocre coach.

I hope that last night's bitter loss does not adversely affect the players. It's tough to bust your butt for almost 58 minutes and have the head
coach deliver the game to the opponents on a silver platter. Belichick
should stop making flimsy excuses and admit to his players that he
made a terrible decision. He should take 100% of the blame for the
loss.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Personally I think it was the wrong play to make. The defense had let up some points yet, but Manning had also thrown 2 picks, missed his share of throws he usually makes, his receivers were letting balls bounce off them all game, and the run game was banged up and injured. Not to mention the Colts were forced to punt what, 6 times?

You HAVE to give the defense the whole field to try and stop him. Will he maybe march down the field and score and win anyways? Possibly. Or maybe he'll throw another pick? You've gotta let those guys take the field deep in the Colts end and see if they can do the job.

As for these articles saying that stastically speaking its mathematically a better call to do what BB did, does that mean then that BB will be going for it on every 4th and 2 against the Colts? Afterall, if the numbers really do favor going for it, then the correct play is to go for it EVERY time.

I think we all know those articles, and those "stats" make a LOT of very questionable assumptions and it simply isn't that cut and dry.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Stupidest decision I've ever seen a coach make.

I don't care about statistics, saying that going for it is around the same as punting it. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. You DO NOT GIVE PEYTON #@%^ING MANNING THE BALL WITH 30 YARDS TO GO FOR THE WIN. Most coaches would be fired for doing something that stupid, in a game with literally season-ending implications. That was the difference between possibly playing the Colts on the road vs. at Gillette. Indefensible. Not enough sugar in the world to make that Kool-Aid drinkable...

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I wasn't even going to attempt to post my thoughts last night. I will say this though, I was in utter shock when they lined up to go for it. I sensed wrong move right away and vehemently disagreed with what I was seeing. Even if we would of made it, I still would of disagreed with the decision after the fact.

Personally, if BB was so set on ending the game right then and there I would of QB sneaked it twice,once on 3rd and 2 and the same on down 4. I don't think I've ever seen Brady fail in those situations.

On the flip side. We are 6-3 and our destiny is still in our hands. Belichick has done a lot more good coaching than he has bad and basically the team just needs to focus on the Jets next week. Chalk this one up in the books as a big L that WE let get away. A loss would of been a lot easier to bear if we actually made Manning travel the distance to beat us though.

I can honestly say that we are now officially a top 3 or 4 team worthy of Superbowl contention after this loss. Belichick now has more game film on his opponent and hopefully the outcome will be different come January when we play them again.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Jimke said:

I'm surprised that so many of you support the decision.

I thought that it was the worst coaching decision that I have
witnessed in 50 years of watching Patriot's football. For a few
seconds I thought that Clive Rush was back as Patriot's head
coach. Gil Santos and Gino were stunned by Belichick's decision.

Frankly, I'm beginning to wonder if Belichick is still a great coach.
Great coaches exercise good judgment to win football games.
Mediocre coaches make poor decisions and lose football games.
Last night, Belichick was a mediocre coach.

I hope that last night's bitter loss does not adversely affect the players. It's tough to bust your butt for almost 58 minutes and have the head
coach deliver the game to the opponents on a silver platter. Belichick
should stop making flimsy excuses and admit to his players that he
made a terrible decision. He should take 100% of the blame for the
loss.

Click to expand...

I disagree and I've been watching the Pats for a long time as well, though not quite 50 years.

Belichick decided that his Defense couldn't keep Manning from going 70--90 yards with two minutes on the clock and a timeout in their pocket. In the 40 seconds he had between plays, he weighed the risks and made a decision. Based on how the Colts were playing, it was a reasonable decision to make. He clearly felt that it would be better to take a chance on them scoring quickly with time to come back than making them drive the length of the field and eat up the rest of the clock.

The decision that I DO second guess was not letting Addai score with 1:10 left on the clock rather than tackling him at the two or wherever. If Belichick was going to follow that strategy, he should have instructed the D to let the Colts score on their first play, analogous to (but admittedly not identical to) his decision to give the Broncos a Safety a few years back.

The decision raises a lot of issues, I'll grant you that; most importantly whether Coach Belichick feels he has a defense that can stop Peyton Manning when all the chips are down. Last night, he clearly felt that he didn't.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

You can sum up all this things in 1 word: Vegas!!! This game was orchestrated by Vegas from the get-go.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

PatsFanSince74 said:

most importantly whether Coach Belichick feels he has a defense that can stop Peyton Manning when all the chips are down. Last night, he clearly felt that he didn't.

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Seriously, what kind of confidence does that show in both Pees and the Players

All in all, and on so many levels, that 3rd and 4th down were up there with the SB42 field goal and last minute all-out blitz as the worst calls i've seen this team make

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I try to simplify this, Manning got hot, our D was worn down, particularly the D line... you put the ball in your best players, who you believe will give you the best shot.... they came up short..

I am concerned, but also know what would have happened in the world of the NFL and on this board if Faulk could have gotten the 1st down... Brady saw that #33 was up against a safety in single coverage, 9 out of 10 times it would have worked..

Sure that this will created thread after thread, but hindsight is 20-20... NY next Sunday.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

JD10367 said:

Stupidest decision I've ever seen a coach make.

I don't care about statistics, saying that going for it is around the same as punting it. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. You DO NOT GIVE PEYTON #@%^ING MANNING THE BALL WITH 30 YARDS TO GO FOR THE WIN. Most coaches would be fired for doing something that stupid, in a game with literally season-ending implications. That was the difference between possibly playing the Colts on the road vs. at Gillette. Indefensible. Not enough sugar in the world to make that Kool-Aid drinkable...

Click to expand...

No, he didn't give him the ball with 30 yards to go for the win. He gave him the ball with 30 yards to go to score and, here's the rub, score quickly.

The mistake Belichick made was not telling the D to give up the Touchdown on the first play, much like he told his Offense to take a Safety in Denver a few years ago (though admittedly under different circumstances).

Like it or not, Bill Belichick last night decided that his Defense couldn't stop Peyton Manning, otherwise he would have punted and made him try to go 70--90 yards (about where the Colts would have gotten the ball after a reasonably covered punt) for the score. He decided that the likelihood of that eventuality was high and then made the calculation that there would be no time left on the clock if it occurred.

It was actually quite a rational decision, though one that had the odds clearly against it if they didn't pick up the yard and a half. It didn't pan out.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

It wasn't the right call, but it was gutsy and it actually worked. I am conflicted on who I want to blame Belichick for taking the risk or the side judge who blew a call he couldn't even see that is never called because of the forward progress rule.

I could see Belichicks line of thinking, he saw the the horrendous PI on Butler and figures 1 play they are down there anyway. I think he could see the refs were feeding off the home crowd.Pass rush was dying because of the lack of depth.

I don't agree with it, but I understand it.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I don't know WTF to think. I keep playing the different scenarios out in my head. Stupid to ballsy to Faulk made it and got a crappy spot but no TO to challenge to just let them score quickly leaving as much time as possible to why waste 4 seconds running the ball out after the kick off... Just so many questions.

That said I was shocked that they pissed away two TO's which came back to bite them.

Oh well, gotta get back to work.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

JoeShmoe said:

Seriously, what kind of confidence does that show in both Pees and the Players

All in all, and on so many levels, that 3rd and 4th down were up there with the SB42 field goal and last minute all-out blitz as the worst calls i've seen this team make

Click to expand...

Actually, I think the answer to your question is very clear. It shows very little confidence in them, against Manning. That is what should concern us this morning, not all this other stuff. And, after watching Manning cut through a gassed D easily on the prior drive, I really can't second guess that. I still trust Belichick; if that's how he saw it, I'm buying it.

The only part of the decision I question was not following through on its implicit logic and letting the Colts have the TD on the first play after they got the ball at the 29 or wherever. Brady would have had 1:30+ to move the Pats into range for a Ghost FG. Under the specific circumstances at that specific time in last night's game (therefore not as a general rule), I like the odds of that better than the odds of stopping Peyton Manning who was clearly on a roll last night.

Clearly what I'm saying here runs completely against the Conventional Wisdom of us Monday Morning QB's. But it makes a compelling kind of sense.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

4th and 2 would have been a perfect time for the Pistol. But Stanbeck next to Brady in the backfield out of the shotgun, direct snap it to Stanbeck, and power block. Should be 2 yards easy.

Why going for it was right

facing 4th and 2, the Pats had about a 60% of getting the first down. This of course would have ended the game. 60% is a historical league average, you can quibble with this figure up or down if you want, but thats around the ballpark % chance the Pats make it.

so if they will convert 60% of the time, then going for it gives them a Win Probability of at least 60%. I say "at least" b/c even if the fail to convert, the Pats still have a chance of stopping the Colts from the 30. what % is that? the league average in this situation is around 53%, though I think we would agree that the Colts vs our defensive had a much higher % chance of scoring. call it...75% ? that means 25% of the time, even when we don't get the first down, we win by stopping the Colts.

so,

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.75)) = 70% Win Percentage for Pats

the alternative move of course is to Punt, which on average will put the Colts right around their 34. (again, these #'s are taken from the above link).

what are the odds the Colts drive down and score now? We used 75% chance from the Pats 30, so it's obviously going to be much less from their own 34. The historical league average is 30% in this situation, but again I think it's higher than that. Call it 45%. that means the Pats have a 55% Win Probability from punting.

given those assumptions above, going for it leads to pats victories 70% of the time while punting leads to victories 55% of the time. you can play around with those #'s yourself and change the assumptions, but you would need to plug in some weird #'s to come to a conclusion that says punting is the right move.

2nd point: in terms of the decision making process, the results don't matter. the decision to punt or not punt is not made correct or incorrect by what happens afterwards. to call decisions "right" or "wrong" based solely on the results is horribly incorrect "analysis". sometimes Faulk gets to the 30, sometimes he doesn't, but either way going for it was right. sometimes the result is going to look bad, sometimes it won't. you need to divorce yourself from the results if you want to learn how to make the best decision.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I said after the Atlanta game that I liked the call to go for it then. I won't back off from that now; but man o' man does this loss sting. Too bad they left such a crucial play up to the officials to decide.

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

It was a bad decision by a great coach...what can you do.
The reason I didn't like the call was that even if we make the first down, there is no guarantee that we can run out the clock. If we make the first down at the 30, but not another one, we are still punting away with probably at least a minute on the clock...plenty of time in my opinion. So, if you can't stop them from 70 yds out, what makes you think yo can do it from 30 yds out.
A few other thoughts:
BB is catching alot of heat, but I think Brady also wanted to go for it. They didn't replay this last night, but before the 4th down, Brady was waving his hand downfield, in a "go for it" signal.
I agree with the other comments, the playcalling in that last series, was bad. Brady had been effectvie taking a deep drop all night long, so long as they had help on Mathis. Why they did a quick drop with a quick out to the sidelines, twice in a row, is beyond me.
Having said that, the spot on Fualk's catch was pretty bad. I can't remember the last time they didn't give a receiver forward progress. He bobbled the ball once, true, but he had a firm grip on it before starting backwards.
Finally, that PI call that Collie drew on the second to last Colts TD was really, really cheesy.