Are the Pats Really Going to go LB or Safety Early?

Wretch said:

I have been thinking a lot about the draft recently and though most people are expecting the Pats to take an OLB with their first round pick and consider safety a need because of the loss of Rodney.

First to state the obvious no one except BB knows what BB thinks and the rest of us are just guessing.

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I will give you all of that.

Wretch said:

Based on what we read and hear about BB’s appreciation for James Sanders and the fact that the Pats signed Sanders to a contract extension I think it is unlikely that BB is looking to replace Sanders with an early pick.

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That maybe so but the secondary was routinely torched to cinders last year, and I cannot shake the 3rd-15 reception by Keller from my mind. The coverage over the middle must get better or the defense will continue to decline.

Wretch said:

Also I think Rodney’s short term replacement is already on the team and his name is Tank Williams or, if you like, Gary Guyton, serves that role as the coverage linebacker/safety.

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Williams is a massive question mark and Guyton is good in coverage, for linebacker and is an order of magnitude below Rodney in coverage abilty.

Wretch said:

I don’t think BB would have traded Vrabel if he didn't think that players on the roster could replace him. Redd, Crable and Woods are the players that I think will serve as Vrabel’s replacement. Plus a lot was made last year of Guyton’s ability to play all 4 LB spots.

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Maybe his does, but even if Bill came out tommorow and made that statement, I would say he was wrong. Furthermore replacing Vrable is not the point, I want to improve over Vrable in the next couple of years. The defense has been trending down since 2004, I attribute that to the erosion of talent in the secondary and at linebacker. Cornerback has gotten a make-over, and Mayo infused a lot of new talent at the ILB position, but the job is far from complete. It showed on the feild last year, the defense was a liabilty, it needs more talent to compete.

Wretch said:

Because of these guesses on my part about BB’s thinking I find it more likely that BB will pick up OL or DL help early to eventually replace Kazcur, Neal, or Seymour.

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It is possible, and if it comes to pass, I think it is a mistake. Unless one of the top tier tackles (Top 4/5) or top tier 5-technique (Jackson), and the top 4OLB are already gone and 3/4 of the next tier are still available and the top Cornerbacks are also gone. Put simply, unless an OLB or CB is a real reach at the 23 spot, then it would be a bad mistake to go anywhere else.

14thDragon said:

That maybe so but the secondary was routinely torched to cinders last year, and I cannot shake the 3rd-15 reception by Keller from my mind. The coverage over the middle must get better or the defense will continue to decline.

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Steps were made in FA to deal with the secondary, Bodden and Springs.

14thDragon said:

Williams is a massive question mark and Guyton is good in coverage, for linebacker and is an order of magnitude below Rodney in coverage abilty.

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Williams is a question but as some one stated earlier he is the 3rd safety and I will concede that Rodney is better in coverage than Guyton, but I think order of magnitude is overstatement. Rodney had experience and Guyton has physical tools Rodney no longer has.

14thDragon said:

Maybe his does, but even if Bill came out tommorow and made that statement, I would say he was wrong. Furthermore replacing Vrable is not the point, I want to improve over Vrable in the next couple of years. The defense has been trending down since 2004, I attribute that to the erosion of talent in the secondary and at linebacker. Cornerback has gotten a make-over, and Mayo infused a lot of new talent at the ILB position, but the job is far from complete. It showed on the feild last year, the defense was a liabilty, it needs more talent to compete.

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Vrabel was one season removed from the Pro Bowl and still has gas in the tank. He wasn't traded to KC because he wasn't an on the field performer it was a salary move.

14thDragon said:

It is possible, and if it comes to pass, I think it is a mistake. Unless one of the top tier tackles (Top 4/5) or top tier 5-technique (Jackson), and the top 4OLB are already gone and 3/4 of the next tier are still available and the top Cornerbacks are also gone. Put simply, unless an OLB or CB is a real reach at the 23 spot, then it would be a bad mistake to go anywhere else.

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My basic premise is that I don't think that BB is as concerned about OLB as we,the fans, are. I think BB will look to rebuild the OL and DL. Units that were the core of his original rebuilding when he arrived here with the picks like Seymour, Warren, Neal, Light and Mankins. It strikes me that BB builds teams from the inside out and is rebuilding the team in a like fashion.

Like I said earlier no one know what BB thinks except BB and if he picks a punter in the 1st round I will trust his football expertise over mine

Good points of view. I have listed Ziggy Hood -Dt/DE-Missouri-as a possibility at 23 for several weeks. I believe that Hood at 23 would be an excellent choice to prepare Pat's for the challenge of signing Seymour next year. Here are the 4 players that I believe will be the main targets for round one:

1. Alex Mack-center-Cal- A heck of a center. could protect Brady for several years.

2. Larry English- N.Illinois- Pass rushing machine.

3. Ziggy Hood-D-LINE-Mo.

4. Rey Maualuga-ILB-U.S.C.

* I have to say that I feel English at 34 makes better value sense. Maualuga probably can step into thumper role and contribute as a starter from day one. Hood can provide solid contributions up front as a rookie-eventually replacing Seymour or one of the others. Mack could start if pressed as a rookie-he could add value at og if neal is out-he would be the future starter very soon at center.

Mathews-Cushing-fall due to steroid questions.

* Remember Jason Taylor or Julius Peppers still could join Pat's.

CoachK said:

When is the last time we spent a first day pick on someone who didn't have the tape to back up the pick??

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Ben Watson and Bethel Johnson say hi.

Spiral said:

Ben Watson and Bethel Johnson say hi.

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LOL (10 characters)

I don't see Safety early. With Merriweather, Springs, Sanders, and Tank. It doesn't make sense. That's not to say that he won't take a safety with a later pick to be groomed into a starter. I don't see him going that route in the first round.

Wretch said:

Steps were made in FA to deal with the secondary, Bodden and Springs.

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Bodden is an upgrade, Springs is a band-aid. IMO. I like the signings and would be willing to let Wilhite and Wheatly develop. If the coaches think one of those guys is a future number 1 CB, I will trust their eyes. But beyond Sanders and Merriweather, I think the cupboard is pretty bare at Saftey. And if you imagine Springs playing both at CB and safety then you still need another developing DB.

Wretch said:

Williams is a question but as some one stated earlier he is the 3rd safety and I will concede that Rodney is better in coverage than Guyton, but I think order of magnitude is overstatement. Rodney had experience and Guyton has physical tools Rodney no longer has.

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YYMV, but Guyton, IMO, looked good as a passing down linebacker, reminicent of Phifer. But he was not shutting down tight-ends accross the middle.

Wretch said:

Vrabel was one season removed from the Pro Bowl and still has gas in the tank. He wasn't traded to KC because he wasn't an on the field performer it was a salary move.

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And one season removed from playing one-dimentional offenses. But regardless of that, if he had still been producing at ~5million dollar level, then he still would be on the team. It was not just a salary move, but a value move. But despite all of that, the defense was still not that good the past two years, and I would and have said, this was due in no small part to a decline in play at the linebacker position. So I want a net improvement in the talent level.

Wretch said:

My basic premise is that I don't think that BB is as concerned about OLB as we,the fans, are. I think BB will look to rebuild the OL and DL. Units that were the core of his original rebuilding when he arrived here with the picks like Seymour, Warren, Neal, Light and Mankins. It strikes me that BB builds teams from the inside out and is rebuilding the team in a like fashion.

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The strategy while on the surface is sound, has some cracks when you look at the results. The year that Mankins and Kazur were drafted, based on your logic, improving the offensive line, but the running game struggled due to a lack of talent at the RB position.

We have seen for a couple of years now the secondary getting toasted, despite the elite defensive line, because the talent at CB and safety was not up to the task.

If you look at the 2007 draft, the majority of it was OL and DL, and only Merriweather was able to stick around. Beyond the trades that were made the rest of the draft was a waste.

Wretch said:

Like I said earlier no one know what BB thinks except BB and if he picks a punter in the 1st round I will trust his football expertise over mine

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I prefer the blind squirl theory. So I will simply form my own opinions and let them be right or wrong regardless of their relation to BB's judgement.

14thDragon said:

Bodden is an upgrade, Springs is a band-aid. IMO. I like the signings and would be willing to let Wilhite and Wheatly develop. If the coaches think one of those guys is a future number 1 CB, I will trust their eyes. But beyond Sanders and Merriweather, I think the cupboard is pretty bare at Saftey. And if you imagine Springs playing both at CB and safety then you still need another developing DB.

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Wheatley and Wilhite are those developing DBs

14thDragon said:

YYMV, but Guyton, IMO, looked good as a passing down linebacker, reminicent of Phifer. But he was not shutting down tight-ends accross the middle.

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I have already conceded that Guyton isn't as good in coverage as Rodney but he has the physical tools to do so. He is both bigger and faster than Rodney is at this stage in Rodney's career. Guyton lacks experience but he has the potential to be a very good coverage LB and shut down RB and TE in coverage.

14thDragon said:

And one season removed from playing one-dimentional offenses. But regardless of that, if he had still been producing at ~5million dollar level, then he still would be on the team. It was not just a salary move, but a value move. But despite all of that, the defense was still not that good the past two years, and I would and have said, this was due in no small part to a decline in play at the linebacker position. So I want a net improvement in the talent level.

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I think most feel that Vrabel was included in the trade because BB wanted to make sure the Vrabel didn't end up in NY or Miami. I read this as BB thinking Vrabel is still a good player and he didn't want divisional rivals to have the opportunity to pick him up if he was released.

The decline in the performance of the D has been tied more ot injuries in the DB and in the LB corp last year not to the talent level of the players.

14thDragon said:

The strategy while on the surface is sound, has some cracks when you look at the results. The year that Mankins and Kazur were drafted, based on your logic, improving the offensive line, but the running game struggled due to a lack of talent at the RB position.

We have seen for a couple of years now the secondary getting toasted, despite the elite defensive line, because the talent at CB and safety was not up to the task.

If you look at the 2007 draft, the majority of it was OL and DL, and only Merriweather was able to stick around. Beyond the trades that were made the rest of the draft was a waste.

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2007 netted Merriweather, Welker, and Moss. To judge a draft as a poor draft because 4th-7th round picks couldn't make a playoff team that went 18-0 in the regular season is a bit of an overstatement. I beleive that most of the players drafted are still on other teams rosters. It wasn't a bad draft just that there wasn't room on the roster for the draft picks.

14thDragon said:

I prefer the blind squirl theory. So I will simply form my own opinions and let them be right or wrong regardless of their relation to BB's judgement.

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I am not saying that I don't form my own opinions. What I am saying is that I am not the football expert that a 3 time SB winning coach is. I am a fan hence his opinion of players is more valid.

Wretch said:

I have been thinking a lot about the draft recently and though most people are expecting the Pats to take an OLB with their first round pick and consider safety a need because of the loss of Rodney.

First to state the obvious no one except BB knows what BB thinks and the rest of us are just guessing.

Based on what we read and hear about BB’s appreciation for James Sanders and the fact that the Pats signed Sanders to a contract extension I think it is unlikely that BB is looking to replace Sanders with an early pick. Also I think Rodney’s short term replacement is already on the team and his name is Tank Williams or, if you like, Gary Guyton, serves that role as the coverage linebacker/safety.

I don’t think BB would have traded Vrabel if he didn't think that players on the roster could replace him. Redd, Crable and Woods are the players that I think will serve as Vrabel’s replacement. Plus a lot was made last year of Guyton’s ability to play all 4 LB spots.

Because of these guesses on my part about BB’s thinking I find it more likely that BB will pick up OL or DL help early to eventually replace Kazcur, Neal, or Seymour.

Thoughts?

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Couisins:
DW Toys
See below-

Assessing team needs
Email|Link|Comments (0) Posted by Mike Reiss, Globe Staff April 4, 2009 12:35 PM

ANALYSIS

Pat Kirwan of NFL.com breaks down his view on the needs of each AFC East team entering the NFL Draft. This is a good exercise to follow through on when assessing which players teams might select on draft day.

In summary, Kirwan lists the Patriots' needs this way:

# OLB
# S
# ILB
# RB
# WR
# OT
# QB

Assessing needs requires a multi-layered view -- one that factors in the short-term as well as the long-term. With this in mind, I'd shuffle around the above list a bit by including the defensive line and offensive guard.

The reason I'd include defensive line is that Jarvis Green, Richard Seymour, Le Kevin Smith and Vince Wilfork all have contracts that expire after the 2009 season. At offensive guard, starters Logan Mankins and Stephen Neal, as well as top reserves Russ Hochstein and Billy Yates, have contracts that expire after the 2009 season.

So while the Patriots appear well stocked at those positions heading into the draft, the team's decision-makers must look ahead to the future as well.

CORNERS
1) Bodden is the band-aid on a one-year contract; and yes, he is an upgrade and a starter.
2) Yes, I believe that Belichick sees a future starter or two, or a starter a nickel, in Wheatley and Wilhite. They will have this year to develop.
3) Springs is a band-aid??????????????????? He will be paid $4.55M for this year's services, and total of over $3.2M a year for the three years of his contract. He can start at CB if necessary in 2010, but he isn't crucial at corner in 2009 with Hobbs still here.
4) Either Hobbs OR Bodden might be re-signed in 2010.

SAFETIES
The cupboard is bare? Meriweather and Sanders are both here for awhile. Tank Williams and Springs are the 2009 backups. Spann beings up the rear as the #9 DB at the moment. He looked OK at free safety when he played. There is hardly a critical need for 2009.

2009 ROSTER AS OF NOW
Hobbs, Bodden, Wheatley, Wilhite
Meriweather, Sanders, Springs, Williams
Spann

ASSESSMENT
I agree with you that we could use a developmental defensive back in the draft. My choice would be a strong safety like Moore, Chung or Vaughn.

14thDragon said:

Bodden is an upgrade, Springs is a band-aid. IMO. I like the signings and would be willing to let Wilhite and Wheatly develop. If the coaches think one of those guys is a future number 1 CB, I will trust their eyes. But beyond Sanders and Merriweather, I think the cupboard is pretty bare at Saftey. And if you imagine Springs playing both at CB and safety then you still need another developing DB.

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mgteich-

You make a convincing point, although I don't see any way in keeping Ellis next yr. He will certainly be demanding somewhere between 8-8.5, maybe even 9 million per. He certainly has some coverage issues, but is an elite athlete and his kick returning skills will obviously help him. He is a solid #2, as proved in '06 and '07. The CBA problem may aid us somehow in keeping him, but I don't know considering the situation we currently have with big contract yrs already in Wilfork, Seymour, Mankins, etc. I seriously doubt we retain his services, at the money he'll be demanding, or that other teams will give him.

Bodden is indeed an upgrade, but he's not etched in stone--and could be gone too. I think it will depend on the development of the picks last yr, Wheatley and Wilhite. Here's hoping to great second yr seasons from them.

mgteich said:

CORNERS
1) Bodden is the band-aid on a one-year contract; and yes, he is an upgrade and a starter.
2) Yes, I believe that Belichick sees a future starter or two, or a starter a nickel, in Wheatley and Wilhite. They will have this year to develop.
3) Springs is a band-aid??????????????????? He will be paid $4.55M for this year's services, and total of over $3.2M a year for the three years of his contract. He can start at CB if necessary in 2010, but he isn't crucial at corner in 2009 with Hobbs still here.
4) Either Hobbs OR Bodden might be re-signed in 2010.

SAFETIES
The cupboard is bare? Meriweather and Sanders are both here for awhile. Tank Williams and Springs are the 2009 backups. Spann beings up the rear as the #9 DB at the moment. He looked OK at free safety when he played. There is hardly a critical need for 2009.

2009 ROSTER AS OF NOW
Hobbs, Bodden, Wheatley, Wilhite
Meriweather, Sanders, Springs, Williams
Spann

ASSESSMENT
I agree with you that we could use a developmental defensive back in the draft. My choice would be a strong safety like Moore, Chung or Vaughn.

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Corners:
Bodden is a starter entering the prime of his career, so has the potential to be a solution, but is uncertain going into next year. Springs is a 34 y/o corner playing out the back nine and has played one full season in the last 5. He is good depth and can fill in at two spots but is not a number one shut down option. So an expensive band-aid, but still a band-aid.

Hobbs is at best an adequate number 2 and a good kick returner.

Now maybe Wilhite or Wheatly is a number 1 corner, but maybe they are not, I would like more talent at that position, especially talent on a rookie contract. Even if one of them is a number 1 corner, I would still like a long-term uprade over Hobbs, who just like Seymour and Green is a FA at the end of this year.

Safety: Merriweather and Sanders are starting quality safeties. Williams and Spann are JAGs. Springs can provide a measure of depth and flexiblity.

So I would prefer a shut down corner, Butler or A. Smith or a tweener safety/corner like S. Smith.

If a new CBA isn't signed, then Hobbs and Mankins are RFA's, so we would keep them or we would get a 1st and 3rd in trade.

supafly said:

mgteich-

You make a convincing point, although I don't see any way in keeping Ellis next yr. He will certainly be demanding somewhere between 8-8.5, maybe even 9 million per. He certainly has some coverage issues, but is an elite athlete and his kick returning skills will obviously help him. He is a solid #2, as proved in '06 and '07. The CBA problem may aid us somehow in keeping him, but I don't know considering the situation we currently have with big contract yrs already in Wilfork, Seymour, Mankins, etc. I seriously doubt we retain his services, at the money he'll be demanding, or that other teams will give him.

Bodden is indeed an upgrade, but he's not etched in stone--and could be gone too. I think it will depend on the development of the picks last yr, Wheatley and Wilhite. Here's hoping to great second yr seasons from them.

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mgteich said:

If a new CBA isn't signed, then Hobbs and Mankins are RFA's, so we would keep them or we would get a 1st and 3rd in trade.

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Ok, I keep forgetting. I just keep assuming he'll be gone.

I was thinking, as many probably were, that the Patriots would go OLB or safety with their #1... with the possibility of ILB if USC's Rey was there.

But... according to Reiss :

He'll be a guiding Light - The Boston Globe

it is not unlikely that BB will take Butler from UConn with number 23.

farn said:

I was thinking, as many probably were, that the Patriots would go OLB or safety with their #1... with the possibility of ILB if USC's Rey was there.

But... according to Reiss :

He'll be a guiding Light - The Boston Globe

it is not unlikely that BB will take Butler from UConn with number 23.

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I think it'll ultimately be decided by what's left, and who does what before us obviously, but I'm not sure why anyone would be that surprised with a day 1 CB. We always go BPA, instead of 'immediate' need--not that we won't use some of our other picks on 'need,' such as OL, S. I wouldn't be surprised at all with improving even more, what was such an obvious weakness. We all know where a good corner takes us

It does sound good to say that we always draft BPA instead of food.

We drafted for need when we drafted Seymour, Mankins, Warren, Mayo, Meriweather and Maroney. We rarely see any need for top TE's, but surely Graham and Watson weren't the BPA.

I think that we draft for need more often than not in the first round. That does NOT mean that we draft our #1 need with our #1 pick, just that the needs of the team do seem to matter more than some abstract BPA designation. Belichick doesn't care if he reaches a few spots for the player he wants.

supafly said:

I think it'll ultimately be decided by what's left, and who does what before us obviously, but I'm not sure why anyone would be that surprised with a day 1 CB. We always go BPA, instead of 'immediate' need--not that we won't use some of our other picks on 'need,' such as OL, S. I wouldn't be surprised at all with improving even more, what was such an obvious weakness. We all know where a good corner takes us

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mgteich said:

It does sound good to say that we always draft BPA instead of food.

We drafted for need when we drafted Seymour, Mankins, Warren, Mayo, Meriweather and Maroney. We rarely see any need for top TE's, but surely Graham and Watson weren't the BPA.

I think that we draft for need more often than not in the first round. That does NOT mean that we draft our #1 need with our #1 pick, just that the needs of the team do seem to matter more than some abstract BPA designation. Belichick doesn't care if he reaches a few spots for the player he wants.

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Yes, that's quite a fair assumption. More often than not, the first round pick is more of a 'safer' pick. BB has already come out and said that. But after that, IMO we draft the best talent available from who's left. I don't know any other way to put it. Otherwise, how could you explain a lower number of picks even being able to make the team? BB has often said that we take the BPA, and that you don't try and fill a spot from what's left.

With that said, I think it's a good combination of the two, because of the limited number of spots available.

And I'm still not convinced of all this need anyway. We don't have that much need, just a few additions and higher competition

I, for one, would not be mad at all of BB addressed the OL early in the draft. Other than that, I really don't have any inkling on what he could be thinking at this point. I, unlike many I presume, am not extremely confident in the OL. Some fresh, young talent there would be welcomed and much appreciated.

OLB is another area where I'm sure BB will take a hard look. However, someone said earlier that he wouldn't have gotten rid of Vrabel unless he knew someone was ready to step up, and I tend to agree. Let's face it, Vrabel was not exactly stellar last season. I'd go so far as to say he really disappeared as early as the final quarter of the 2007 season. With that said, however, there's still a void and I hope BB made the right decision on that.

mgteich said:

It does sound good to say that we always draft BPA instead of food.

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Never post hungry.