Re: The Official Trade Brady Thread
CRAZY POINT #1: One or two playoff games? OK, so you're ok from going from 18-1, 20 point margins of victories, 2 minutes from perfection, to exiting in the second round? That's an acceptable drop off? That drop off is worth drafting defenders in the next few drafts who might not be playing at a high level until 3-4 years from now?
First, thank you, this was a good post. I don't smoke crack.
The margin of what's acceptable isn't changing, but I'm saying that if a guy wins two playoff road games in his first season as a starter since he was 18, it means he probably has a lot of upside. Especially since, if we do win a few playoff games (or even make it in, for that matter), it sure as hell ain't gonna be on defense. That secondary is bad. Really bad this year. And the pass rush isn't making up for the deficiency. And who's to say that first-round picks can't come in and perform immediately? Maybe if we're talking about a defensive backfield player, sure, but you throw Patrick Willis, a top-5 offensive lineman, and a first-round CB on this team and see if you don't notice a difference immediately. Not to mention the THREE 2s that I think you'd have this year if you got the two 1sts and a 2nd. Pioli isn't always great at the back end of the 1st round, but he's money in the first half of it.
CRAZY POINT #2: How do we know Cassel's 400 yards games aren't a "fluke" at this point?? Be smart about this - we're talking about the future of our franchise, and you're banking it on a few games where Cassel probably made your fantasy team do really well. Look, I like the guy, I think he's demonstrated he's clearly an above average NFL QB - but we have ZERO idea how he would lead this team if it lacked Moss and Welker. Our only inclination is seeing him in preseason, and it was admittedly ugly. We know that Brady can win without those guys.
You're right, this is a good point. But we do have Moss and Welker. We will have Moss probably until the end of his career, and Welker is still fairly young. Moss has four or five more very productive years left. But when I say I don't think it was a fluke, I'm looking at things like field awareness, mobility, and touch. He wasn't just getting lucky. He was finding open guys, evading the pass rush, throwing on the run, scrambling for big gains, and putting a lot of touch on the football. This wasn't just his one good game, you're seeing a consistent level of play since the Denver game. Time will tell, but my gut tells me this isn't a fluke, I think he's actually developing into a solid NFL quarterback. His long ball is horrible, but that can be worked on.
CRAZY POINT #3: Go back and look at those defenses that won the Super Bowl, none of them were quite as statistically dominant as we think in hindsight, and all 3 of them gave up the same kind of potentially game-losing drive in the 4th quarter that the 06 and 08 defenses did. The only difference is that the guy you want to ship out of town didn't have enough time on the clock to make up for it the last two times. We won those championships with a good offense and a good defense. Not an amazing defense and an OK offense. The last few years, we've still had a good defense - things just didn't go our way.
No, they were not "statistically dominant" but they were great teams. Come on now. McGinist, Bruschi, Phifer, Vrabel at 28? Ted Washington and a young Richard Seymour, with Rodney Harrison at his prime and Ty Law in the backfield? Those were great defenses, capable of killing the quarterback, with youthful linebackers running everywhere on the field. They weren't the steel curtain, but when Bruschi leaves this year we're going to have who, Gary Guyton inside? With 33 year old outside linebackers and a defensive line that might be about to break up due to free agency?
The last few years our defense lost us opportunities in the playoffs. It's definitely not crazy to suggest that.
CRAZY POINT #4: If Brady went to a team, the picks from that team WOULD NOT BE IN THE TOP 10 ensuing seasons. Seriously, if Brady went to the Niners for instance, the Niners would become a favorite to win the Super Bowl, don't you think? You might run into the situation where we just traded our dynasty over to another team, and we wind up getting beat by Brady in future seasons, do you really want to see that happen? On the flip side, as good as Cassel has been, no one is going to be too worried about trading Cassel and him being a real source of competition in the future. At least at this point in time.
Of course I know that, but if you got two 1sts and a 2nd from them, and a guy like Willis, you'd be looking at two picks from the top ten (Willis and their 09 pick), and then a mid-late round 1st to go along with your other 1st. That's a net gain of five first round picks over two years, with four 2nd rounders. Think about the kind of talent you could put together with that kind of haul. It doesn't make your mouth water a little bit?
It's possible Brady could beat the Pats in the Super Bowl, but he wouldn't be a consistent threat because you would NEVER send him to the division. Of course, that would be a given.
You are seriously making a fool of yourself. If Cassel goes and wins the Super Bowl MVP, if he starts defeating good defenses by a lot, then maybe this has some chance of becoming a conversation. But even then, I doubt it. Cassel is going to earn himself a contract in the league of Brady's, Cassel as a tag and trade will earn us some good picks - the drop off isn't even close to worth it just to grab a couple late first rounders in future drafts. You have to be out of your mind. The drop off so far has been huge, the offense is still scoring 2 TDs less per game, margin of victory is down...we're 7-4, not 11-0. Think it through.
This isn't Brady from last year we're talking about here. It's a Brady who's lost a lot of weight and just came off knee surgery. I'm concerned. You'd have to be nuts not to be. We have the luxury to consider that concern, because there is a guy who might be pretty good waiting to take his place. Teams like San Francisco would be seeing huge revenue booms in merchandising and have been losing for years; they can't afford to be concerned.
7-4 in his first season. Without much of a defense and with most of the running backs still hurt. I don't care if I'm making a fool out of myself.
The truth is, when they (inevitably) keep Brady for all the good reasons you mention, I'll be happy. I think it'll on the whole be the safe decision, and probably the wrong one, although that's certainly debatable. I'm playing devil's advocate here because there's a good argument to be made for Cassell, and some of you aren't willing to take a look at it.
Again, Matt Cassel is good. He's not Tom Brady good.
That's not even debatable. Anyone who suggests otherwise would be an idiot. It's a quarterback-driven league, but defense wins championships. That's what the conversation is about. It's about adding a first round offensive lineman and four first round defensive players in the next TWO YEARS. Think that through.
