The NE QB trend - Not worthless stats.

I typed this in another thread, and I think it bears its own discussion.

In Tom's third game (second start) playing the Dolphins, he scored NO TD's and threw for a whopping 86 Yards, going 12 for 24 (50%). The Dolphins outscored the Patriots by 20 points. In four games, the Pats were 1-3.

In Matt's third game (second start) playing the Dolphins, he scored ONE TD (while not passing to one of our "premiere" receivers) and threw one INT. He threw for 131 yards, going 19 for 31 (61%). The Dolphins outscored the Patriots by 25. In three games, the Pats are 2-1.

It's fair to say Matt will never be as Good as Tommy is because Peyton Manning isn't as good as Tommy is and few players even stack up against the two of them in the history of quarterbacking. What can be said, by those numbers is that Matt Cassel 2008 is BETTER than Tom Brady 2001 as of this moment.

It's very possible if Matt was behind a Bledsoe-esque QB, Bill would be just biding time waiting to get him out there. Fact is, he's been behind Brady and that makes #2 a long way down from #1 on the depth chart.

I'm just trying to make a case for not throwing the guy out on the street. Sure, stats don't tell the whole story, but discounting them outright is just ignorant.

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Now if you use projections, Cassel should have an overall better season than Tom because he has a few advantages Tom didn't, especially in Moss. I think Brady still had receivers in the same range as Welker and Gaffney in 2001.

That trend, though I did not see the games in 2001, tells me that after the loss to Miami the team started to click.

Interestingly though, in the Chargers game, it's a close one despite a spike in passing yards. In the thrashing of the Colts he throws for 162 less yards.

Chargers: W, 29-26. Tommy throws 2 TDs, passes for 364 yards. 61% Comp.

@ Colts: W, 38-17. Brady throws 3 TD's, passes for 202 yards. 80% Comp.

In the Colts game he threw only 20 times as compared to a whopping 54 times against the Chargers.

These don't seem like unreasonable things to expect of Mr. Cassel over the next two games. I doubt we'll see 364 yards, but I do think we'll be hopping over 200 a lot.


The point is we're seeing a very similar schedule of active duty development.

Moss and Welker might be the only factors that say Cassel has a better team around him in reality. I know on paper it's different, but our last game makes a mess of the 3 game stats anyway.

So if I can be allowed to form a data-based hypothesis or two without the outright mockery of the anti-Cassel crowd...

BB has a system of development for new QB's and has probably evaluated these guys with the same entry level talent.

Further, based on the trends, Cassel will not win every game but is very likely to start doing the kind of scoring to at least make him noteworthy.

Lastly, a loss to Miami is a good sign (the growth of Brady, 16-0, and maybe this time... who knows.).

I believe we will see a much different team on the field next week than we did last week. Not because we're doing a straight trade for Dallas either.
But because based on trends in coaching and loss reaction, the system is operating on a nearly identical schedule a it did in 2001 when another first time NFL starter took the reigns.

For deeper insight, check out the details of the 2001 season. Pretty interesting stuff, likely even if you were there.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2001.htm

This just can't be real.

although the stats after 2 or 3 games MIGHT be somewhat similar, the level of play isn't.

Brady was a college hero who showed poise and ability leading his team from behind.

Cassel last started in HS and just isn't very good.

I don't like to throw the word "homer" out there, but come on, this is ridiculous.

People criticize me for negativity, but I like to think I'm being honest with myself.

Pats have a lost year ahead of them. Happens.

mcbee said:

This just can't be real.

although the stats after 2 or 3 games MIGHT be somewhat similar, the level of play isn't.

Brady was a college hero who showed poise and ability leading his team from behind.

Cassel last started in HS and just isn't very good.

I don't like to throw the word "homer" out there, but come on, this is ridiculous.

People criticize me for negativity, but I like to think I'm being honest with myself.

Pats have a lost year ahead of them. Happens.

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That crystal ball that you use to see the future, can you tell me if my 401k will be worth anything this time next year?

ScottieC said:

That crystal ball that you use to see the future, can you tell me if my 401k will be worth anything this time next year?

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Please, can we just talk QB trends here? So many potentially decent threads are getting cut off at the knees by feeding the trolls.

ScottieC said:

That crystal ball that you use to see the future, can you tell me if my 401k will be worth anything this time next year?

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What's in it? I hope so, if yours isn't, mine won't be either.

No crystal ball, but has Cassel ever done anything to make you think this guy is a legitimate NFL QB? A college QB?

I think he has pictures of BB.

mcbee said:

What's in it? I hope so, if yours isn't, mine won't be either.

No crystal ball, but has Cassel ever done anything to make you think this guy is a legitimate NFL QB? A college QB?

I think he has pictures of BB.

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He's done the same thing with his first two starts Brady did. So yes.

Stats are the same but they don't tell everything. I'm still somewhat confident in Matt but there's alot I still want to see out of him before I put my faith in him being the 2001 Brady.

Brady's 3rd game was the game against SD that Terry Glenn played in. I remember Brady throwing a few passes downfield to Glenn with great success. Glenn had 110 recieving yards that day on passes that weren't screens if I remember correctly. Brady also led a late 10 point comeback. These two things are abilities I haven't seen from Cassel yet in his first 3 games other than his very first pass to Moss. With Moss you'd think it would be easier for him to have success throwing downfield than with Brady in '01. Hopefully in the next few games he can show that because I distinctly remember against SD, @ Indy, and even a few times @ Denver Brady made some nice downfield passes.

Well said my friend!

I've been advocating the same thoughts about Cassel, however your post is much more eloquent and fact driven. I too see many similarities between Tom and Matt, in thier respective first seasons, and also look for something along the lines of a 2001 campaign. I've been a loyal fan of NE for 37 years and I still see hope in this season. I'm behind Cassel 100%! He's gonna be the man to take us as far as we can go this year...

Look at Jay Cutler when he took over for Jake Plummer his first season. Denver was lousy! Now look! Tearin' it up. Look at Tony Romo when he took over for Bledsoe. Dallas did make the playoffs, but Romo threw as many INT's as TD's. Now look at em'! Then again, Cassel could turn out to be another Harrington or Grossman, but give the kid a chance.
O'Connell is not the answer yet! Just as Quinn was not the answer for Cleveland yet!

For cryin' out loud look at Leinhart and Arizona. Heisman trophey winner and benched! Look at Carson Palmer and Cincy! Heisman trophey winner with Houshmandzadeh and Ocho-Cinco. Not really tearin' up the field there either. Should I continue???

For all the bandwagoneers out there, I am glad we are 2-1 at this point. Look at all the other teams (including the COLTS and Peyton) that are 1-2, 0-2, 0-3 with proven starting QB's....

OK, I've said my peace. You Cassel haters can burn me in effigy now!

One thing I will say for Cassel is he deserves more patience from the fans. When Brady took over for Bledsoe it was easy to be patient, because Bledsoe had stunk for a while and by just managing the games, not making mistakes Brady was already better than Bledsoe. When Cassel took over, he was replacing one of the greatest to step on the field. So obviously he is not going to look like an upgrade by playing the manager.

For those who think 2001 is being resurrected tell me one thing...

Do you,can you visualize the 2008/09 Super Bowl MVP holding the trophy to be none other than Matt Cassel? - I can't

I just hope for the playoffs with Cassel playing his tiny part to manage the team and to me thats more than just a great season,any other visions of granduer farther than making the playoffs, I suggest to hold off till January comes around

PATRIOT64 said:

For those who think 2001 is being resurrected tell me one thing...

Do you,can you visualize the 2008/09 Super Bowl MVP holding the trophy to be none other than Matt Cassel? - I can't

I just hope for the playoffs with Cassel playing his tiny part to manage the team and to me thats more than just a great season,any other visions of granduer farther than making the playoffs, I suggest to hold off till January comes around

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What you fail to understand is we're not the ones extrapolating the comparison through February 2009 - you are as are many others who apparently simply cannot tolerate the possibility that something like that could ever happen. Could you visualize Brady as a SB MVP in 2002? Or compared to Montana by 2004? Or touted as the GOAT by 2007? See, I could while objective football geniuses like Ron Borges simply could not. Go figure.

That said, I don't expect as much from Cassel, but I do expect him to have the capacity to get us there. Just not sure he's got enough football players surrounding him in 2008 to accomplish that and more. Just more acknowledged talent, but lots of teams have supposedly elite talent and get nowhere. Because that's not how you win championships. You win those with football players making plays and a little luck along the way and hard work and determination and a solid defense that peaks in the second season...and sometimes exceptional but at least sound coaching. A lesson both Mannings, not to mention a few guys named Polian, Dungy, Coughlin, Rothlisberger, Cowher, Gruden, Johnson, Billick or Dilfer can now attest to.

Talent only wins the pre season superbowl.

mcbee said:

This just can't be real.

although the stats after 2 or 3 games MIGHT be somewhat similar, the level of play isn't.

Brady was a college hero who showed poise and ability leading his team from behind.

Cassel last started in HS and just isn't very good.

I don't like to throw the word "homer" out there, but come on, this is ridiculous.

People criticize me for negativity, but I like to think I'm being honest with myself.

Pats have a lost year ahead of them. Happens.

Click to expand...

Comparing Cassel to Brady is both blasphemous and ridiculous.

Brady followed up his 5-3 start in 2001 by winning 9 straight games

including the Superbowl. Not only does Cassel have no college

background, he did not impress in the preseason games this year.

Belichick chose him over Guiterrez because he had 4 years in the

system. So far he has had one adequate game (which was in doubt

at the end), a good game, and an awful game.

If you want to look at the stats like the person who started this

thread, the Pats are 26th in scoring and 27th in red zone offensive

with Cassel at quarterback. Over the course of the season, this

kind of production would result in very few wins.

Jimke said:

Comparing Cassel to Brady is both blasphemous and ridiculous.

Brady followed up his 5-3 start in 2001 by winning 9 straight games

including the Superbowl. Not only does Cassel have no college

background, he did not impress in the preseason games this year.

Belichick chose him over Guiterrez because he had 4 years in the

system. So far he has had one adequate game (which was in doubt

at the end), a good game, and an awful game.

If you want to look at the stats like the person who started this

thread, the Pats are 26th in scoring and 27th in red zone offensive

with Cassel at quarterback. Over the course of the season, this

kind of production would result in very few wins.

Click to expand...

It's comparing Brady's first 2 starts of his carrer with Cassel's first two starts of his career. NO one is comparing what Brady did ALL of 2001 to what they know or believe Cassel will definitely do. It's all about f'ing perspective.

So many people believe they are supreme talent evaluators and can evaluate Cassel based on two starts. Yet those same nimrods refuse to ACKNOWLEDGE that Brady was not a HOF QB, nor did he show anything that would lead you to believe that he definitely would become great after 2 starts.

BB kept Tommy around in 2001 for a reason, and let him grow. BB is keeping Matt around in 2008 for a reason, and will let him grow. The situations are definitely a lot different, no matter how Cassel does this year he isn't replacing Brady.

2001 Tom Brady was NOT a HOF QB, and I'm tired of people re-writing history. Tom worked his ass off for many years to become the GOAT, he wasn't just born with some magical talent, nor was he remotely close to the GOAT in 2001.

Cassel has had 2 starts that compare extremely close to Tom's first two starts of his career. Where Cassel's ceiling is and how much he grows this year nobody knows. It's up to Cassel to continue to work hard and study, and none of us can possibly know how well he will become. We do know that BB has seen something in him that he feels he is the best option at this point for the 2008 Patriots.