Random Stuff

[VrabelMayeWin]

Is everyone else as nervous as I am ? I was calm last week and think the Chargers are less of a threat than Jacksonville but the stakes are so high now. Whenever I think about what winning this week means - well, I'm better off not thinking about it.

With the early weather saying 20 MPH winds is that good for us or not ? We can run but rely on the pass more. The flip side, though, is the Chargers have less short/medium threats especially with Gates likely limited again, we're used to the wind/cold more and Brady has a better arm than Rivers/Volek to get through the wind.

Much like last week, stopping the running game comes down to stopping the big plays. While Tomlinson is Football Outsiders' #2 ranked RB, he's #31 in Success Rate - whereas Maroney is #2 in success rate (regular season only stats). This means that if we can limit the big runs to medium runs we should be able to generate plenty of 2nd/3rd and longs.

From what I've seen, Chambers usually lines up on the right side and Jackson on the left. That would give us a great matchup of Zante on Chambers and we could give Hobbs/Gay some help on Jackson.

Speaking of Football Outsiders, the Catch% (all passes thrown to them a bad throw counts as a non catch) of our guys is a huge edge. Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Gaffney, Watson are, respectively, 62%, 77%, 62%, 72%, 73%. SD's WR ? Jackson and Chambers are 51%, Gates (even without the toe injury) is 64%.

Even before Tomlinson got hurt, his playoff stats are : 28-70. Puke. Did something happen to him late in the year ? Last game of the year against Oakland's horrendous run D he averaged 3.5 YPC after four straight games of 5.6 YPC or higher. Seems like something's not right.

Not sure how healthy Nate Kaeding is, in the dome his kickoffs were getting to about the 2-3 yard line while Vinatraitor was going halfway into the end zone. Whoever's returning kickoffs better be ready to move forward.

Is this the game we start out more aggressive on defense ? Or is Belichick trying to play it conservative early, watching the blocking schemes and not tiring out the old men at LB so he can come harder in the second half like they did in both the NYG and Jax games ?

 

[PonyExpress]

The Chargers D is going to make some plays. The question is how well the Charger Qb performs, whether Rivers or Volek. My gut says Rivers will revert back to the Rivers of old, meaning he will makes mistakes, lose his composure and make some self destructive plays. He is no McNair, and no Garrard, either. Maroney will continue to be a dynamic force. 24-17 Pats, with the potential for wider margin of victory if Rivers/Volek meltdown more than I anticipate.

 

[chunkypony]

I'm terribly nervous. I think that the Chargers D is going to be playing at a much higher level this time around, and the Charger Offense has the ability to put up some points.

I think this game (like the Jax game) comes down to the Pats D making stops. If they can get off the field on third down (something that the Chargers were very good at converting against Indy), I think this game will be a blowout. If the defense lets the Chargers Offense to have long, sustained drives, this game has the potential to be closer than I want it to be.

 

[Wildo7]

Every week before a Pats game, I have an initial reaction about the team we are about to face. It's almost always one of supreme confidence. As the week goes on and different things are said I always begin giving the other team much more respect and start worrying more and more until around game time I am a nervous wreck who thinks the game is 50-50. I've gotten better at recognizing this trend and calming myself, but every week I still go through the same progression and then the game happens and everything's fine. I'm sure the same thing will happen this week, but for the record, the Chargers officially are starting to scare me.

1) They beat the Colts twice at home in the same season. And the Refs. And the fake crowd noise.

2) They were adjusting to a new staff in week two, and we had crazy emotional play because "spygate has just happened." Also, they had no idea how to defend our new offense.

3) They are very, very deep.

4) Volek may be tougher to gameplan for than Rivers, as backup QBs don't have a lot of film and the packages can be different which is why they have success (A.J. Feeley, Kyle Boller)

5) I get the sense that Norv Turner is trying to play mind games when talking about how banged up they are, either that or he's stupider than I thought discussing injuries so openly before an AFCCG.

6) Norv Turner is not as stupid as everyone thinks. Seriously, this team is 13-5 going to the AFCCG in his first year as head coach. The media has completely missed what an impressive story that is after killing him for going 1-3.

7) Maroney has been great. Turner has also, and LT can go off at any time. I do not think winds in excess of 20 mph helps us, the cold may do though (Has Rivers ever played in the cold? Volek?)

8) Gates at 70% is better than 80% of TEs in the league.

9) We're supposed to roll, no one is picking the Chargers, there's a huge spread (way too big IMO), and roster-wise, they're still the same team they were last year when they were very good but inexperienced. The Pats haven't really had a true blowout win since the first half of the season (Steelers being the closest which was still a game in the 3rd quarter), I don't know why they still get these enormous spreads. This game falls into the category of what Simmons said earlier in the year was a "obvious game." Gamblers avoid them.

I know I'm just going through my normal routine of being a ridiculous nervous wreck more and more as gametime approaches, but I can't help it. Right now, these are the things running through my mind.

 

[eom]

you guys worry too much.
you think the pats win all these games by going in nervous?
have a little faith in an awesome team.

they should stomp the chargers.

 

[BradyManny]

Is this the game we start out more aggressive on defense ? Or is Belichick trying to play it conservative early, watching the blocking schemes and not tiring out the old men at LB so he can come harder in the second half like they did in both the NYG and Jax games ?

Someone started a thread to that effect before the Jax game, saying we should start pressing receivers, jamming at the line, play some man. I agree with the idea, but the approach of playing conservative in the first half and adjusting in the second half has really worked all year, it's hard to argue with it. As a fan, I guess it's just a nerve-wracking idea to go with this lose a battle to win the war idea, but it's hard to argue with the Pats approach when it has produced one of the top defenses in the league this season.

As for being nervous, yes, I get increasingly nervous. The stakes are just so high, as you say. To me, the prospect of losing seems unbearable, particularly to the Chargers of all teams.

 

[theflinger]

13-3? I had them at 11-5.

 

[Wildo7]

13-3? I had them at 11-5.

sorry, I meant to type 13-5. See my mind is running away with worry again!

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

stop being a baby Belichickfan. you were worried about injuries too last week and the pats won and came out of the game healthy.

no way the pats lose

how can the chargers simulate weather going from 70 to 15 degrees?

plus they have one day's less rest and have to fly basically across the country twice in the span of 6 days.

and their starting qb, rb, and tight end are beat up, plus they have norv turner

may i also add the merriman off of steroids is not the same merriman. let colvin go on roids and he'd have the season merriman had.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

plus we didn't have seymour and harrison the first game.

 

[aluminum seats]

I think it would be nearly impossible NOT to be nervous, talking about a team that's 17-0 and just two games away from history. The Chargers obviously have talent and have been playing well.

But. San Diego will be doing the cross-country thing the Pats did last year, which wipes teams out, and they ARE banged up at the skill positions, which (particularly receiver) they were not very deep at to begin with. Chris Chambers doesn't scare me. Even if they score, and you feel nervous about that, the Pats offense has become my security blanket. It's not enough to score, or play well most of the game, or whatever. The game against the Giants was the perfect example--teams have to score, score again, and KEEP scoring to keep up with this offense. I suppose you could say that there have been some close games, and the Pats haven't really turned the ball over, so couldn't it be possible, etc. But that's what I mean about it being impossible not to at least be somewhat nervous--but it really only exists in the abstact.

--On your other points, good note about the right/left side of the field regarding the SD WRs. I expect Samuel to have a HUGE game, by the way--I'm seeing 2 picks, w/one returned for a TD.

--Good point on Nate Kaeding--didn't really think about the fact he was being outgunned by AV. Wow. I do sense nervousness on the part of SD fans regarding him, so that's another decided edge for the Pats. In some ways, it's kind of good that the Ghost got his miss out of his system without really hurting the Pats (except for the point spread.)

Last, I just SO didn't want the Colts to beat the Pats, my nervousness dropped the moment they lost. And really.....Brady & Belichick at home against Rivers (maybe) and Norv Turner? Really?

 

[CopenhagenPatsfan]

1) They beat the Colts twice at home in the same season. And the Refs. And the fake crowd noise.

Not sure if this will help calm you down......but the first Chargers vs Colts game was in San Diego. Does that make you feel better about Sundays game?

 

[Wildo7]

Not sure if this will help calm you down......but the first Chargers vs Colts game was in San Diego. Does that make you feel better about Sundays game?

Oh yeah I forgot, bad weather, Mannings 6 INT. Jesus I'm starting to have a nervous breakdown.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

--Good point on Nate Kaeding--didn't really think about the fact he was being outgunned by AV. Wow.

In another thread I was told that they have a separate kickoff guy - but the point remains; whoever kicked off for SD was mediocre at best.

 

[patsox23]

I'm not nervous. We will kill the Chargers. They're like Jax and we beat them despite our D playing a crappy first half and only so-so-ish in the 2nd.

 

[Buchanty]

Its the playoffs and I am always nervous, more often than not from excitement though once in a while possibility of defeat sends a shudder through my frame.

The funny thing is that if given the choice of meeting the Jags or the Bolts in the AFCC this year I would choose the Jags. Not because they are the weaker team (far from it), but because they are more consistent and I know what to expect from them. The Bolts are just too hard to figure out. They do have some excellent players, they do have momentum and they can turn it on both defensively and offensively. But equally they can hit a brain fart and implode.

It also seems to have something to do with their smack talk, the more they do the higher the propensity for the brain fart. I guess neither Marty or Norv drilled that out of them.

One of the worrying facts that keeps being presented in the media is that the Chargers are on a recent winning streak with scores that are better both on D and O than the Patriots (last 6 games). A closer look at those games however proves that they did not have the level of competition (quality teams) or pressure (pumped to defeat the Pats) faced by NE. The last 6 teams they met were:

Ravens
at Chiefs
at Titans
Lions
Broncos
at Raiders

A combined 37-59 with the Titans the only playoff contender (thanks to Dungy) and the only team with a winning record.

My biggest concern has been that the Pats will succumb to the belief that this is an easy game, though it seems that Bill is keeping the pedal to the metal as far as humble pie and working on mistakes.

 

[Bostonian1962]

Every week before a Pats game, I have an initial reaction about the team we are about to face. It's almost always one of supreme confidence. As the week goes on and different things are said I always begin giving the other team much more respect and start worrying more and more until around game time I am a nervous wreck who thinks the game is 50-50. I've gotten better at recognizing this trend and calming myself, but every week I still go through the same progression and then the game happens and everything's fine. I'm sure the same thing will happen this week, but for the record, the Chargers officially are starting to scare me.

1) They beat the Colts twice at home in the same season. And the Refs. And the fake crowd noise.

2) They were adjusting to a new staff in week two, and we had crazy emotional play because "spygate has just happened." Also, they had no idea how to defend our new offense.

3) They are very, very deep.

4) Volek may be tougher to gameplan for than Rivers, as backup QBs don't have a lot of film and the packages can be different which is why they have success (A.J. Feeley, Kyle Boller)

5) I get the sense that Norv Turner is trying to play mind games when talking about how banged up they are, either that or he's stupider than I thought discussing injuries so openly before an AFCCG.

6) Norv Turner is not as stupid as everyone thinks. Seriously, this team is 13-5 going to the AFCCG in his first year as head coach. The media has completely missed what an impressive story that is after killing him for going 1-3.

7) Maroney has been great. Turner has also, and LT can go off at any time. I do not think winds in excess of 20 mph helps us, the cold may do though (Has Rivers ever played in the cold? Volek?)

8) Gates at 70% is better than 80% of TEs in the league.

9) We're supposed to roll, no one is picking the Chargers, there's a huge spread (way too big IMO), and roster-wise, they're still the same team they were last year when they were very good but inexperienced. The Pats haven't really had a true blowout win since the first half of the season (Steelers being the closest which was still a game in the 3rd quarter), I don't know why they still get these enormous spreads. This game falls into the category of what Simmons said earlier in the year was a "obvious game." Gamblers avoid them.

I know I'm just going through my normal routine of being a ridiculous nervous wreck more and more as gametime approaches, but I can't help it. Right now, these are the things running through my mind.

The Chargers are a very talented team, but allow me to calm your nervers.

1. The first game was AT San Diego, and Indy dominated in so many ways, but the final score.
2. It was Week 2 for the Patriots and all their new players too. They didn't know how to defend the new offense? Pats players didn't know how to play it either. They do now.
3. True, but the Pats are far healthier right now.
4. I'm sure the Pats will be well prepared for both QBs.
5. That won't help him win a game.
6. How is the media's ignorance going to help the Chargers beat the Pats?
7. All I know is Brady said he hopes it's windy and cold, so that's good enough for me.
8. How is Gates being injured a positive for the Chargers again? No offense, but you are a worry wart if that's one of your issues.
9. So far, Merrill Hoge has picked the Chargers. I'm sure more will.

 

[Bostonian1962]

plus we didn't have seymour and harrison the first game.

Great point indeed! We put 38 points on the board, and now the offense has 15 more games under their belt.

Maroney is playing great football now, vice then.
Our starting DE is back.
Our starting SS is back.
The game is at home.
It's going to be frigid.
Their 3 most important offensive players have injuries.

I love the Pats chances.

 

[mac]

How nervous would you be if you were a SD fan and Moss was limping around, Maroney was doubtful, and Cassell was probably going to start?
Pats have everything in their favor. Only the weather could, I repeat, could make it so The Pats strengths may be netralized.

 

[Michael]

Is everyone else as nervous as I am ?

NO. I feel more confident of a SB victory (which of course means a victory this Sun) than I was in 2003-2004 and by the Dec of '03 I knew and never doubted they would win it all. It wasn't homerism because I didn't feel that way before or since until this year. And this is a much better team. I just don't see any team coming up with better schemes or just plain better performance on the field this year.