Thoughts on Sony Michel

[Deus Irae]

Strange how Brady is treating 7/11 Hogan like a wet food stamp in the progressions lately.

He was looking for him in the end zone, but the OL didn't give him the time to make a better throw.

 

[Kontradiction]

Oh come on. One of the threads was called:
Who Is Sony Michel?

Next we need a "Where is Sony Michel?" thread. Maybe a "Why is Sony Michel?" after that.

 

[obgod3]

Well my take is this, Sony will do fine, rookie....but then again it isnt like NE has been a powerhouse run team in a very long time if ever....running the ball isnt just about the RB....just saying blocking and stuff like that matters....

 

[PatsFan2]

Ghost wasn't good, but in all he was 2/3 on field goals and 3/4 on extra points. That's 9/13 possible points. People often react to missed extra points and for some reason the narrative is that missing a 33 yard extra point is worse than missing a 33 yard field goal. Missing field goals are a lot worse. In all, Ghost was clearly off, but it's not like this was some kind of absolutely extraordinary bad game.

Brady made that one very bad decision before halftime, but again, you also look at how many times they could have "missed out on four points" if he hadn't made a lot of spectacular passes. He was out of 3rd and long almost all day because the running game was so putrid and predictable.

I just don't understand the justification for constantly running into the middle of the line when the Dolphins have literally dominated that area from the opening snap. Running off-tackle near the goal line, or even running a sweep, would have been a much higher percentage play and would have kept the clock rolling just as well. Even prior to that final Brady bailout with his deep pass to Gordon to presumably seal the game, they were once again stuffed on their first down run which was, you guessed it, up the middle. The entire game was the Patriots offense getting stuffed up the middle and relying on Brady on 3rd and long.

Maybe they need a upgrade at Center over Andrews in the Off-season. I didn't know Miami's Run D was that good.

 

[scott99]

I agree statistically he is a good back but there doesn’t look to be anything special with him. He’s not a burner, he’s doesn’t really make people miss, he’s not a power RB, he doesn’t catch the ball, and he continues to get banged up. I’d be thrilled with what he is if he was a 4th round pick the same way I love what we get from Trey Flowers. With that said if Trey Flowers was a first round pick I would be a little underwhelmed with him.

Do me a favor, watch his college videos. Tell me you don't see anything special and he doesn't make people miss. It's obvious he's not as healthy as he was his last year of college. He's got excellent shiftyness, good speed, and he was plenty special in college. You can tell the difference between college and his 1st year in the NFL, and that difference is ONE thing, health. And yet, he's still 4th in rushing for rookies despite missing 3 1/2 games.

Go back and watch that Jet's game. You can tell he was getting healthy. Some of the shiftyness and speed, and power was coming back. He hasn't had success against 2 very good defensive lines the last 2 games. But three 100 yard games in 9 full games is pretty damned good for a rookie. Had 98 in another.

You guys are acting like he's a bust for Christ's sake. And you're acting like he can't become better than what he's shown. He's gonna finish with at least 800 yards as a rookie, when's the last Pat's rookie to do that ? Here's a hint, It was 21 seasons ago.

 

[primetime]

I'm a bit skeptical about the power rushing scheme with the fullback. Look at the Rams, whose success running the ball comes not because Gurley's a transcendent talent but because they spread the defense out and run it against a six man front on every play. I feel like Michel would be better if he had more room to run, and the Patriots don't want to give it to him.

Look at this article for what I mean: Todd Gurley Is In The Right System At The Right Time

 

[Angelpats]

I’ve said it before. He is a good back, nothing exceptional. The games he has done well there were big holes that any rb can run through. He doesn’t really have moves or explosion to break tackles or fight for yards. Bolden really fought for yards yesterday.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I have been disappointed in Michel.
I would trade him straight up for his college teammate Nick Chubb.

I have seen no burst from Michel & he don’t break many tackles. Chubb would also score on a lot of the goal line carries that Michel has failed to score on.

 

[Angelpats]

I have been disappointed in Michel.
I would trade him straight up for his college teammate Nick Chubb.

I have seen no burst from Michel & he don’t break many tackles. Chubb would also score on a lot of the goal line carries that Michel has failed to score on.

Considering we are using Develin on the goal kind of proves your point.

 

[BelizePats]

If anyone is blaming Sony Michel for his lack of production yesterday and not the Oline and Josh McDaniels, we must have been watching two different games. Our Oline gave Sony no room to run. And I saw absolutely no in game adjustments from Josh at any point in the game that reflected what was happening during the game. A sweep to rex on 3rd and 1??? Where the hell was James White??? Did we even throw 1 screen pass yesterday? Sony had nowhere to run yesterday. His lack of production was not on him!

 

[primetime]

I’ve said it before. He is a good back, nothing exceptional. The games he has done well there were big holes that any rb can run through. He doesn’t really have moves or explosion to break tackles or fight for yards. Bolden really fought for yards yesterday.

Uh, Bolden didn't get touched on his long touchdown.

 

[primetime]

I have been disappointed in Michel.
I would trade him straight up for his college teammate Nick Chubb.

I have seen no burst from Michel & he don’t break many tackles. Chubb would also score on a lot of the goal line carries that Michel has failed to score on.

I posted the stats a couple weeks ago but Chubb and Michel have had virtually identical seasons, albeit with Chubb having a couple big runs and Michel having a larger proportion of his runs go for 5+, and Michel has been a more productive goal line runner.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

I agree somewhat. We all want immediate greatness from our #1 round picks. Especially running backs. But we have to remember, Sony has had TWO knee injuries that has caused him to miss 3+ games and MOST of training camp. I doubt very much Michel is 100%, despite what the injury report says. Also, maybe, just maybe, our offensive line is average when it comes to run blocking, despite having a few big games run wise.

Despite all of this, he's having a very good rookie year. If someone told me before the season and after the draft, that Michel would lead the team in rushing and average 70 yards per game rushing as a rookie, I'd have said, where do I sign up. The only disappointment for me, is the lack of use in the pass game, but it seems like that is a team wide decision. Once Edelman came back, Gordon came aboard, and Gronk got healthy, James White's receptions have gone down from 6.875 catches per game the first 8 games, to 4.2 catches a game the last 5 games. So he's the MAIN receiving back, and his receptions have gone down.

BTW, here are Michel's rookie season stats vs Lesean McCoy's rookie stats below. Lesean was obviously more of a receiving back with 40 catches as a rookie.

attempts yards ypc tds
164 706 4.3 5

155 637 4.1 4

Don’t quote me on this but I’m pretty sure McCoy didn’t have 4 tds vultured by a fullback.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I posted the stats a couple weeks ago but Chubb and Michel have had virtually identical seasons, albeit with Chubb having a couple big runs and Michel having a larger proportion of his runs go for 5+, and Michel has been a more productive goal line runner.

Why don’t you check this out.
Pro Football Focus is all about stats.

Why Nick Chubb is the NFL's top running back

Here is a snap shot of stats everyone understands.

Chubb
146 carries
760 yards
5.3 average yards per carry
8 rushing touchdowns.

16 receptions
150 yards
9.3 ypc
2 touchdowns


Michel
164 carries
4.3 average yards per carry
5 touchdowns

7 receptions
50 yards
7.1 ypc
0 touchdowns

Chubb is averaging a full yard per carry more than Michel
Chubb 5.3 average yards per carry
Michel 4.3 average yards per carry

Chubb also has twice as many touchdowns as
Michel

Chubb 10 touchdowns (8 rushing 2 receiving)
Michel 5 touchdowns (5 rushing 0 receiving)

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

Not an elite talent, not worth the 1st round pick.

Also has an uncanny ability of always being an inch short when needed on short 3rd/goal conversions.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Why don’t you check this out.
Pro Football Focus is all about stats.

Why Nick Chubb is the NFL's top running back

Here is a snap shot of stats everyone understands.

Chubb
146 carries
760 yards
5.3 average yards per carry
8 rushing touchdowns.

16 receptions
150 yards
9.3 ypc
2 touchdowns


Michel
164 carries
4.3 average yards per carry
5 touchdowns

7 receptions
50 yards
7.1 ypc
0 touchdowns

Chubb is averaging a full yard per carry more than Michel
Chubb 5.3 average yards per carry
Michel 4.3 average yards per carry

Chubb also has twice as many touchdowns as
Michel

Chubb 10 touchdowns (8 rushing 2 receiving)
Michel 5 touchdowns (5 rushing 0 receiving)

He's been more consistent than Chubb, however. Chubb has a higher rate of negative runs, and his YPC is bolstered by a 90+ yard run where he was untouched. I agree Chubb has been a better receiver, but I don't think these stats tell the entire story.

Not an elite talent, not worth the 1st round pick.

Also has an uncanny ability of always being an inch short when needed on short 3rd/goal conversions.

He's number 12 among RBs right now with 41 first downs. The only ones who have outperformed him have played more games or have more carries. I'm not saying he's the best ever, but he's done pretty well despite missing games to injury and not having much experience or reps in training camp. If he recovers the form he had at UGA, we'll see more explosive carries and better goal line performance, I'm sure of that.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I wasn't too thrilled they burned a first round pick on him but he's been okay. He's a positive runner with some power at times, but doesn't have any wiggle in the open field. His best run of the year was his last run that was called back by a hold by Develin. I haven't seen the replay but it looked like a ridiculous call.

I think he'd play better if the Pats committed to him like they did with Stevan Ridley, Blount and Lewis last year. I'm not a fan of the way they deploy their backs right now. It's becoming too obvious. Sometimes too many backs isn't always the best thing. Yesterday, I saw waaaaay too much Burkhead. And don't get me started on the 3rd and short stuff in the 2nd quarter. Teams love it when the Pats just hand off to either White or Burkhead. I'd like to see more Michel in non obvious running formations.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

He's been more consistent than Chubb, however. Chubb has a higher rate of negative runs, and his YPC is bolstered by a 90+ yard run where he was untouched. I agree Chubb has been a better receiver, but I don't think these stats tell the entire story.

I hope your right and see a little bit of a burst next year.

If you remove Chubb’s 90 yard run, he is still averaging more yards per carry than Michel.
Chubb’s has also showed more value in the passing game.

Let’s not forget the Patriots have a higher rated OL than the Browns who lost Joe Thomas and Gronk is stlll one of



He's number 12 among RBs right now with 41 first downs. The only ones who have outperformed him have played more games or have more carries. I'm not saying he's the best ever, but he's done pretty well despite missing games to injury and not having much experience or reps in training camp. If he recovers the form he had at UGA, we'll see more explosive carries and better goal line performance, I'm sure of that.

He's been more consistent than Chubb, however. Chubb has a higher rate of negative runs, and his YPC is bolstered by a 90+ yard run where he was untouched. I agree Chubb has been a better receiver, but I don't think these stats tell the entire story.





He's number 12 among RBs right now with 41 first downs. The only ones who have outperformed him have played more games or have more carries. I'm not saying he's the best ever, but he's done pretty well despite missing games to injury and not having much experience or reps in training camp. If he recovers the form he had at UGA, we'll see more explosive carries and better goal line performance, I'm sure of that.

Yeah let’s not count Chubb’s 90 yard touchdown & he is still averaging far more yards per carry than Michel.

Let’s not forget the Patriots have a much better OL than the Browns who lost Joe Thomas to retirement. Gronk is still a far better blocker than anyone the Browns have.

Chubb has twice as many touchdowns as Michel on less touches. That is a stat that can’t be denied.

 

[RayClay]

Considering we are using Develin on the goal kind of proves your point.

Where should we use Develin? Maybe we need Bolden back?

 

[mcmurtry86]

Do me a favor, watch his college videos. Tell me you don't see anything special and he doesn't make people miss. It's obvious he's not as healthy as he was his last year of college. He's got excellent shiftyness, good speed, and he was plenty special in college. You can tell the difference between college and his 1st year in the NFL, and that difference is ONE thing, health. And yet, he's still 4th in rushing for rookies despite missing 3 1/2 games.

Go back and watch that Jet's game. You can tell he was getting healthy. Some of the shiftyness and speed, and power was coming back. He hasn't had success against 2 very good defensive lines the last 2 games. But three 100 yard games in 9 full games is pretty damned good for a rookie. Had 98 in another.

You guys are acting like he's a bust for Christ's sake. And you're acting like he can't become better than what he's shown. He's gonna finish with at least 800 yards as a rookie, when's the last Pat's rookie to do that ? Here's a hint, It was 21 seasons ago.

What other Patriots rookies did is irrelevant

What he did in college is irrelevant - most guys in the league looked good in college

Anyone arguing he’s definitely a bust is overreacting but I think it’s fair to suggest that he hasn’t been worth a first round pick at this point. He’s a mediocre RB who is mostly useless in the pass game and hasn’t demonstrated the ability to create yards on his own through strength, vision or elite athleticism. He’s your run of the mill guy who can get yards if the OL gives him a big hole. Otherwise, it’s 3 yards and a cloud of dust

Even if he didn’t have chronic knee issues, his vision and strength look very mediocre at the NFL level. I don’t know that that will improve enough for him to ever be more than an adequate rotational guy.