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It's really about the romantic side of football, if there be such a thing.
The 1967 Ice Bowl in Green Bay is one of the most legendary games in NFL history. A late quarterback sneak for a touchdown by Bart Starr won the game for the Packers over the Dallas Cowboys, 21-17 in the NFL Championship Game and sent the Packers to Super Bowl II. The fame endures for generations, thanks largely to NFL Films and all the pieces done on Vince Lombardi.
Now, did any of the players enjoy playing in that game? If conditions had been perfect, might Dallas have won that game? Or did the elements make the game closer, when in fact Green Bay was much better on paper than the Cowboys?
Since the same two teams met the year before down in the much warmer Dallas Cotton Bowl, and Green Bay won by only a touchdown thanks to a great defensive play by Dave Robinson on Dallas' last offensive play, a case can be made that the elements more or less didn't matter the following year. The two teams were evenly matched, and both teams had legendary coaches (Lombardi versus Tom Landry). The key difference was perhaps at quarterback, where Starr usually got the better of Don Meredith, years before he became dandy.
But the elements? Were they really a factor?
Cold weather and snow affect some teams more than others. Teams that usually wilt in arctic conditions are usually dome teams and Florida teams. Oakland played the Patriots tough in the 2001 Snow Bowl, despite the Raiders calling the balmy Bay Area home. On the other hand, when the San Diego Chargers went to Cincinnati for the 1981 AFC Championship Game, they had no chance in 40 below zero wind chill weather in the Queen City, following an epic double overtime win in warm and humid Miami a week prior.
This year, a Super Bowl will finally be played in arctic conditions. Super Bowl XLVIII will be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., home of the Giants and Jets. It will be the first outdoor Super Bowl in a cold weather city. Detroit, Minneapolis and Indianapolis have hosted Super Bowls before, but they were all played under cover.
The first weather reports for the New York City area called for snow and cold weather. The current 10-day forecast from weather.com calls for a high temperature of 37 with rain and snow showers. Any predictions of snow are problematic for a partying NFL fan crowd who want to have fun in the city but might find travel across the Hudson River a bit of a hassle.
Then, of course, there's Peyton Manning, and his propensity for bad play in bad weather.
Manning's first Super Bowl win was Super Bowl XLI at Miami over the Chicago Bears. In a torrential south Florida downpour, the Colts won largely because the Bears had one of the worst starting quarterbacks in history (Rex Grossman) and didn't need to be in regular season form to win. Manning returned to the big game three years later, also in Miami. In pristine conditions, he lost to New Orleans, 31-17 thanks to a late pick-six by Tracy Porter. So, if bad weather if factored into play, then Manning needs to be rooting for rain, right?
First of all, if any team out there is rooting for rain, it would be the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is one of the rainiest cities in the USA. Weather conditions at CenturyLink Field are often times lousy. The worse the weather, advantage Seahawks. And, based on his expansive body of work, the worse the weather, disadvantage Manning.
Patriot fans will be quick to point out 2003 and 2004, where Manning lost two straight playoff games in Foxborough. In both years there was snow and freezing cold. He lost the AFC Championship in 2003 and a Divisional Round game in 2004. In both years he was smoking hot with one of the most potent offenses in the conference. And in both years, the Patriots shut him down, though in 2003 the Colts and Bill Polian complained about no defensive holding calls on the Patriots. So in 2004, the Patriots gave up 3 points to the Colts instead of 14 the year before.
Those two games, combined with the home loss in 2012 to Baltimore, helped cement Manning's legacy as a bad bad weather quarterback. When conditions at Sports Authority Field looked balmy and 60 degrees last weekend, Patriot Nation hung its collective heads in regret. They knew that a bad Manning game was not in the offing.
And so, Manning heads to the Jersey Meadowlands to pursue his elusive second Super Bowl. After going 1-1 in Miami, he now gets the first cold Super Bowl ever.
And his opponent will be the top defense in the NFL that is used to playing in bad weather. Every bad weather report for next Sunday favors Seattle. Denver remains a 2-½ point favorite in the game. But if the weather reports worsen, and more cold is predicted in addition to the precipitation, watch the point spread move a bit towards Seattle.
Much is being made about how hot Manning is right now, and all season long. He broke Tom Brady's touchdown pass mark. He has four solid offensive weapons. But if the passing game is diminished because of the weather, what's Manning supposed to do?
Actually, these are questions that should not be asked. This is the Super Bowl, the championship of the NFL. Manning being hindered by the weather should really not come into the equation.
That is why warm weather cities and domes stadiums make for the better Super Bowls. Both teams get to play their very best with no exigent circumstances other than injuries. The Ice Bowl and the Snow Bowl are for the romantics. The Super Bowl is about deciding the NFL championship. It should be only about which team plays better, not which team weathers the elements better.
Because if Seattle wins the Super Bowl because Manning was hampered by the weather, people will wonder if the win was cheapened. Seattle has never won a Super Bowl in its history and has only been in one in its existence. If this is to be their first ever championship, they should win it by beating Denver on equal footing, not because they got a break in the weather.
Of course, that is how the Patriots kept beating Manning. Get him out of his element of comfort and watch him beat himself.
But this, again, is the Super Bowl. It should be in San Diego or Miami or New Orleans or Dallas or Los Angeles or San Francisco or some warm weather city. Or a cold city with a dome. Let the championship be decided under the best of conditions.
And leave Starr's one-yard sneak to the bards and filmmakers where it belongs.
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