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Patscap’s 53-man roster projection for the Patriots

I am going to blog about why the Patriots should/will be in great cap shape for the 2017 season when I realized that the best way to illustrate some of my key points was to use a 2016 53-man roster projection.

Bolded players are my roster locks. Please note that I am very conservative when it comes to categorizing a player as a roster lock.

Quarterbacks (3):

Tom Brady – signed through the 2019 season – $14M.
Jimmy Garoppolo – signed through the 2017 season – $950,154.
Jacoby Brissett – signed through the 2019 season – $620,151

Comment: If Tom Brady is suspended for the first four games of the season, that would free a roster spot and the Patriots will receive a credit for four weeks salary ($235,294) and the Patriots will have to pay a player for four weeks ($105,882)

Total for the quarterbacks – $15,570,305 (9.75% of the Patriots adjusted cap)

Running Backs (4):

Brandon Bolden – signed through the 2016 season – $1,272,500
Dion Lewis – signed through the 2017 season – $ 1,087,500
LeGarrette Blount – signed through the 2016 season – $ 1,025,000
James White – signed through the 2017 season – $ 699,272

Comment: Can see Donald Brown with a great preseason overtaking James White for the fourth spot.

Cuts or Trades-
Donald Brown resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $330,000.
D.J. Foster resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $26,666 and a 2017 dead money hit of $3,334.
Tyler Gaffney – no dead money.
Joey Iosefa – no dead money

Total for the running backs on 53-man active roster – $4,084,272 (2.56% of the Patriots adjusted cap)

Tight end (4):

Rob Gronkowski – signed through the 2019 season – $6,618,750
Martellus Bennett – signed through the 2016 season – $5.185M
Clay Harbor – signed through the 2017 season – $1.2875M
James Develin – signed through the 2016 season – $750,000

Comment: Including Develin as a tight end since that is the position group he practices with. Only twice in the past 11 years (2015 and 2012) have Pats not carry 3 tight ends on their Week 1 53-man roster. 2008 was the last year the total of wideouts and tight ends on the Patriots Week 1 roster was not 9.

Cuts or Trades –
A.J. Derby resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $28,013 and a 2017 dead money hit of $56,026.
Stephen Scheu resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $15,000 and a 2017 dead money hit of $10,000.
Bryce Williams resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $833 and a 2017 dead money hit of $1,667.

Total for the tight ends – $ 13,841,250 (8.67% of the Patriots adjusted cap)

Wide receiver (5):

Julian Edelman – signed through the 2017 season
Danny Amendola – signed through the 2017 season
Chris Hogan – signed through the 2018 season
Malcolm Mitchell – signed through the 2019 season
Keshawn Martin – signed through the 2017 season

Comment: KeShawn Martin after receiving a $600,000 signing bonus in January has to be considered the favorite for the 5th wide receiver spot. Can see Aaron Dobson being traded to another team during roster cutdowns. 2008 was the last year the total of wideouts and tight ends on the Patriots Week 1 roster was not 9.

Cuts or Trades –
Aaron Dobson resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $218,340
Nate Washington resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $80,000
Devin Lucien resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $21,353 and a 2017 dead money hit of $64,059
Chris Harper – no dead money
DeAndre Carter – no dead money

Total for the Wide Receivers – $ 15,158,039 (9.49% of the Patriots adjusted cap)

Offensive Lineman (9):

Nate Solder – signed through the 2017 season – $10,322,666
Sebastian Vollmer – signed through the 2016 season – $5,208,334
Jonathan Cooper – signed through the 2016 season – $2,388,954
LaAdrian Waddle – signed through the 2017 season – $1,087,500
Bryan Stork – signed through the 2017 season – $719,250
Tre Jackson – signed through the 2018 season – $655,935
Joe Thuney – signed through the 2019 season – $643,357
Shaq Mason – signed through the 2018 season – $635,881
David Andrews – signed through the 2017 season – $530,000

Comment: Cooper’s salary and roster bonus are fully guaranteed.

Cuts or Trades:
Marcus Cannon – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $1,166,668
Jonathan Kline – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $250,000 and a 2017 dead money hit of $250,000
Ted Karras – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $25,089 and a 2017 dead money hit of $75,267
Chris Barker – no dead money
Cameron Fleming – no dead money
Keavon Milton – no dead money

Total for the Offensive Linemen – $15,158,039 (9.49% of the Patriots adjusted cap)

Defensive Ends (6):

Jabaal Sheard – signed through the 2016 season – $6,812,500
Rob Ninkovich – signed through the 2016 season – $4,750,000
Chris Long – signed through the 2016 season – $2,375,000
Shea McClellin – signed through the 2018 season – $2,233,333
Geneo Grissom – signed through the 2018 season – $680,487
Trey Flowers – signed through the 2018 season – $664,733

Comment: Including McClellin as a defensive end since that is the position group he practiced with during OTAs. Chris Long will earn a $250,000 roster bonus if he is on the 53-man roster once under his current contract.

Total for the Defensive Ends – $17,516,053 (10.97% of the Patriots adjusted cap)

Defensive Tackles (4):

Alan Branch – signed through the 2016 season – $2,750,000
Terrance Knighton – signed through the 2016 season – $2,018,750
Malcom Brown – signed through the 2018 season with an option for the 2019 season – $1,730,280
Vincent Valentine – signed through the 2019 season – $611,355

Comment: If Frank Kearse is released before training camp, his dead money will drop by $30,000 as the Patriots will have avoided paying him his $30,000 reporting bonus.

Cuts or Trades:
Markus Kuhn – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $140,000
Frank Kearse – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $60,000
Woodrow Hamilton – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $5,833 and a 2017 dead money hit of $1,667
Joe Vellano – no dead money
Anthony Johnson – no dead money

Total for the Defensive Tackles – $7,110,385 (4.45% of the Patriots adjusted cap)

LineBackers (3):

Dont’a Hightower – signed through the 2016 season – $7,751,000
Jonathan Freeny – signed through the 2016 season – $1,737,500
Jamie Collins – signed through the 2016 season – $1,196,683

Comment: If Ramon Humber is released before training camp, his dead money will drop by $25,000 as the Patriots will have avoided paying him his $25,000 reporting bonus.

Cuts or Trades:
Ramon Humber – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $50,000
Elandon Roberts – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $25,089 and a 2017 dead money hit of $75,267
Kamu Grugier-Hill – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $25,089 and a 2017 dead money hit of $75,267
C.J. Johnson – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $10,000 and a 2017 dead money hit of $10,000
Kevin Snyder – no dead money
Rufus Johnson – no dead money

Total for the Linebackers – $10,685,183 (4.45% of the Patriots adjusted cap)

Cornerbacks (5):

Logan Ryan – signed through the 2016 season – $1,811,813
Cyrus Jones – signed through the 2019 season – $728,491
Jonathan Jones – signed through the 2018 season – $453,333
Malcolm Butler – signed through the 2016 season – $600,000
Justin Coleman – signed through the 2016 season – $525,000

Comment: If E.J. Biggers is released before training camp, his dead money will drop by $25,000 as the Patriots will have avoided paying him his $25,000 reporting bonus.

Cuts or Trades:
E.J. Biggers – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $50,000
V’Angelo Bentley – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $10,833 and a 2017 dead money of $6,667
Cre’von LeBlanc – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $10,833 and a 2017 dead money hit of $6,667
Darryl Roberts – resulting in a 2016 dead money hit of $13,556 and a 2017 dead money of $27,112
Brock Vereen – no dead money

Total for the Cornerbacks – $4,118,637 (2.58% of the Patriots adjusted cap)

Safeties (4):

Devin McCourty – signed through the 2019 season – $7,937,500
Patrick Chung – signed through the 2017 season – $3,187,500
Duron Harmon – signed through the 2016 season – $ 1,804,400
Jordan Richards – signed through the 2018 season – $ 843,534

Comment: Devin’s 2016 salary is fully guaranteed.

Cuts or Trades:
Cedric Thompson – no dead money

Total for the Safeties – $13,772,934 (8.63% of the Patriots adjusted cap)

Special Teams (6):

Stephen Gostkowski – signed through the 2018 season – $4,100,000
Matthew Slater – signed through the 2016 season – $3,187,500
Ryan Allen – signed through the 2018 season – $1,700,000
Nate Ebner – signed through the 2017 season – $1,192,187
Joe Cardona – signed through the 2018 season – $587,500
Brandon King – signed through the 2017 season – $525,000

Comment: Ryan Allen’s 2016 salary is fully guaranteed.

Cuts or Trades:
Christian Yount – no dead money

Summary

Position Total Number of Players Percentage of Adjusted Cap
C $1,249,250 2 0.78%
CB $4,118,637 5 2.58%
DE 17,516,053 6 10.97%
DT 7,110,385 4 4.45%
G 4,324,127 4 2.71%
K 4,100,000 1 2.57%
LB 10,685,183 3 6.69%
LS 587,500 1 0.37%
OT 16,618,500 3 10.41%
P 1,700,000 1 1.06%
QB 15,570,305 3 9.75%
RB 4,084,272 4 2.56%
S 13,772,934 4 8.63%
ST 3,483,855 3 2.18%
TE 13,841,250 4 8.67%
WR 14,708,039 5 9.21%
Grand Total $133,470,290 53 83.61%

Dead Money

Mayo, Jerod 4,400,000
Easley, Dominique 2,899,795
Cannon, Marcus 1,166,668
Chandler, Scott 1,000,000
Lafell, Brandon 1,000,000
Brown, Donald 330,000
Kline, Josh 250,000
Dobson, Aaron 218,340
Fleming, Cameron 150,292
Kuhn, Markus 140,000
Matthew Wells 107,919
Washington, Nate 80,000
Kearse, Frank 60,000
Moore, Zach 51,100
Biggers, E.J. 50,000
Humber, Ramon 50,000
Dickson, Xzavier 39,588
Cadet, Travaris 32,500
Derby, A.J. 28,013
Grugier-Hill, Kamu 25,089
Karras, Ted 25,089
Roberts, Elandon 25,089
Lucien, Devin 21,353
Scheu, Stephen 15,000
Roberts, Darryl 13,556
Bentley, Vangeleo 10,833
LeBlanc, Crevon 10,833
Harper, Chris 10,000
Johnson, CJ 10,000
Gilbert, Garrett 9,000
Hamilton, Woodrow 5,833
Jimmy Jean 3,334
King, Brandon 2,000
Vince Taylor 1,667
Foster, DJ 1,666
Williams, Bryce 833
Mundine, Jimmay (71,082)
=================================
Dead Money Total = 12,174,308

53 man roster total = $133,470,290
Dead Money Total = $12,174,308
Practice Squad = $1,122,000
Michael Williams’s salary while on IR – $348,000
==================================================
$147,114,598

Patriots adjusted cap of $159,642,451
minus $147,114,598
=======================================
$12,527,853 in cap space which should be more than enough to

* Pay the players’ offseason workout bonus money. Attending a offseason workout session is worth $195 per session. There are about 75 players (rookies cannot) who can earn offseason workout session money in 2016. The Patriots usually have around 32 sessions. $195 * 75 * 32 = $468,000.

* Have a cushion for the NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses that could be earned by Sheard, Bolden, Freeny, Lewis, Blount, Edelman, Vollmer, Solder, Gronkowski, McCourty, Long, McClellin, Martin, Waddle, Knighton, Harbor, Ebner, and Chung. If all seventeen players play in all sixteen games in 2016, the Patriots will then lose $1,720,313
1,924,063 in cap space. Earned NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses are the only NLTBE incentives that if earned hits that year’s cap. Quoting the CBA – “Any roster bonus which is deemed not “likely to be earned” based upon the player’s performance during the prior year shall immediately be included in Team Salary when earned.”

* Have a cushion for other reachable NLTBE incentives (1.25 million) which consist of Vollmer’s playing-time incentive ($750,000) and Edelman’s receptions incentives ($500,000).

* Have a cushion to replace injured players during preseason and regular season – $4 to $6 million. Under the new CBA the Patriots have placed the following amounts of players on Injured Reserve, PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) or NFI (Non Football Injury)

2011 – 12
2012 – 11
2013 – 13
2014 – 10
2015 – 20

Before the 2015 season started the Patriots placed 8 players on IR and 2 players on PUP. Their cap numbers totaled close to $4.7 million.

* Have a cushion to extend players during regular season – $1 to $4 million.
Example – Malcolm Butler
Malcolm Butler's extension

* Sign Jamie Collins to an extension. A deal that is significantly better than Lavonte David would take up over $5.3 million in cap space
Jamie Collins' extension

* Have a cushion just in case Scott Chandler applies for injury protection. Quoting the CBA – “Beginning in the 2016 League Year, any type of In-jury Protection liability shall be included in Team Salary for the League Year for which such Injury Protection applies, or the League Year in which such Injury Protection is paid, agreed to be paid by settlement, or awarded, whichever is later.” Injury Protection was a benefit for the 2011/2012/2013/2014 and 2015 seasons. Scott Chandler may qualify for Injury Protection since he underwent surgery in the off-season following the season of injury and was released with failed physical designation. If Scott Chandler is approved to get the Injury Protection benefit he will receive an amount equal to 50% of his Paragraph 5 Salary for the 2016 season ($2 million) or $1 million. To learn more about Injury Protection review the CBA’s Article 45.

After these roster cuts the Patriots 2017 roster would look like:

Brady, Tom 14,000,000
Solder, Nate 11,197,668
McCourty, Devin 10,000,000
Amendola, Danny 7,916,668
Gronkowski, Rob 7,000,000
Edelman, Julian 5,250,000
Gostkowski, Stephen 4,500,000
Chung, Patrick 4,500,000
McClellin, Shea 3,333,333
Hogan, Chris 3,000,000
Brown, Malcom 2,076,336
Allen, Ryan 1,900,000
Stork, Bryan 1,874,250
Harbor, Clay 1,700,000
Martin, Keshawn 1,625,000
Lewis, Dion 1,600,000
Waddle, LaAdrian 1,300,000
Ebner, Nate 1,200,000
Garoppolo, Jimmy 1,108,513
Richards, Jordan 1,012,241
Jones, Cyrus 910,614
White, James 789,272
Brissett, Jacoby 775,189
Grissom, Geneo 770,487
Thuney, Joe 768,357
Flowers, Trey 754,733
Jackson, Tre’ 745,935
Mason, Shaq 725,881
Valentine, Vincent 716,355
Mitchell, Malcolm 684,498
Cardona, Joe 685,000
Andrews, David 620,000
Jones, Jonathan 543,333
Foster, DJ 541,666
===================================
34 players = $96,125,329

Dead Money
Player Amount
Kline, Josh 250,000
Grugier-Hill, Kamu 75,267
Karras, Ted 75,267
Roberts, Elandon 75,267
Lucien, Devin 64,059
Derby, A.J. 56,026
Roberts, Darryl 27,112
Johnson, CJ 10,000
Scheu, Stephen 10,000
Bentley, Vangeleo 6,667
LeBlanc, Crevon 6,667
Foster, DJ 3,334
Hamilton, Woodrow 1,667
Williams, Bryce 1,667
======================================
$663,000

2017 total cap commitment of $96,788,329 ($96,125,329 + $663,000).

If the League Cap continues to grow at a 8% percent rate, the 2017 League Cap will be $168,000,000.
A team’s adjusted cap number is the total of
Projected 2017 League Cap = $168,000,000
Projected 2016 Rollover = $6,000,000
Projected Adjustments = $3,700,000
=====================================
Projected Patriots Adjusted Cap = $177,700,000

A team’s cap space is the difference between its cap commitment and its adjusted cap number.
Projected Adjusted Cap Number – $177,700,000
Cap Commitment – $96,788,329
==============================================
$80,911,671
which should be more than enough to sign a great number of these prospective free agents

Hightower, Dont’a
Sheard, Jabaal
Vollmer, Sebastian
Bennett, Martellus
Ninkovich, Rob
Branch, Alan
Cooper, Jonathan
Long, Chris
Knighton, Terrance
Ryan, Logan
Harmon, Duron
Slater, Matthew
Freeny, Jonathan
Bolden, Brandon
Collins, Jamie
Blount, LaGarrette
Develin, James
Butler, Malcolm
Coleman, Justin
King, Brandon

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2015 Patriots Salary Cap BreakDown – Tight Ends (Updated on 1/4/2015)

As you can see below, the Patriots currently have three tight ends signed for the 2015 season. Gronk’s 2015 salary and his offseason workout bonus will become fully guaranteed on 4PM, March 10. Patriots have until the final day of the 2015 league year to pick up Gronkowski’s $10 million option for the 2016 season. If they do not pick up the option, he will be an unrestricted free agent in 2016 and the Patriots can not franchise him in 2016. Michael Hoomananawui is due a $300,000 roster bonus on March 14th. Note that Hoomanawanui also has a $6,250 46-man active roster bonus ($100,000 total for 2015). Steve Maneri will become an unrestricted free agent in March. Expect Patriots to offer him a one-year deal with a small signing bonus so that his deal qualifies for the minimum salary benefit treatment.

Name Age 2015 Cap Number 2016 Cap Number 2017 Cap Number 2018 Cap Number 2019 Cap Number 2020 Cap Number
Rob Gronkowski 26 $8,650,000 $6,650,000 $7,000,000 $11,000,000 $12,000,000 UFA
Michael Hoomanawanui 27 $1,580,000 UFA
Tim Wright 25 $585,000 RFA UFA
Rob Gronkowski
Year Salary Prorated Bonus Workout Bonus Roster Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash
2015 $4.75m $3.85m $250,000 $8.65m $5.3m $3.35m $5m $5m
2016 $2.25m $3.65m $250,000 $500,000 $6.65m $9.65m (-$3m) $13m $18m
2017 $4.25m $2m $250,000 $500.000 $7m $6m $1m $5m $23m
2018 $8m $2m $250,000 $750.000 $11m $4m $7m $9m $32m
2019 $9m $2m $250,000 $750.000 $12m $2m $10m $10m $42m
Michael Hoomanawanui
Year Salary Prorated Bonus LTBE Bonus Roster Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received
2015 $800,000 $180,000 $200,000 $400,000 $1.58m $180,000 $890,000 $1.4m
Tim Wright
Year Salary Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received
2015 $585,000 $585,000 $0 $75,000 $585,000
  • Total Top 51 cap value:$10,815,000
  • Portion of Patriots’ total cap commitments of $149,433,797:7.24 percent
  • Total Cap value:$10,815,000
  • Compared to NFL average of $5,805,868: 86 percent more
  • NFL positional rank: 3rd

2015 cap numbers:
Rob Gronkowski: $8.65 million (5th on Patriots, 3rd among NFL tight ends)
Michael Hoomanawanui: $1,580,000 (Patriots: 20th; NFL: 31st)
Tim Wright: $585,000 (Patriots: tied for 38th)
Most overpaid: Michael Hoomanawanui. Even though his 2015 cap number dropped by $200,000 because Hooman did not reach all of his 2014 playing-incentives, the Pats may decide to cut ties with him so as to avoid paying the $300,000 roster bonus. Cutting Hooman will save the Pats $1.4 million in cash as well as create $890,000 in cap space while having a minimal dead money hit of $180,000.
Most underpaid: None.
Credits: I would like to thank Mike Rodak for coming up with this template and OvertheCap.Com’s Jason Fitzgerald for his salary cap information .

If you have any corrections, suggestion, questions, and/or comments, please feel free to ask me a question on the PatsFans.Com message board or email me at patscap at cox dot net.