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Tracking New England Patriots Incentives after Week 11

LTBE bonuses count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned, NLTBE bonuses do not. At the end of the season, the NFL calculates how much each team had set aside for LTBEs that weren’t earned – or said differently, it figures out how much was charged to the team’s cap that was not actually spent. Similarly, the NFL calculates the amount of incentives designated NLTBE that were actually earned. If the unearned LTBEs are greater than the earned NLTBEs, then the following year’s salary cap for that team is increased by the net amount. Similarly, if the earned NLTBEs exceed the unearned LTBEs, then the team’s cap for the following year is lowered by that amount. You can see an example of the effect of cap adjustments at USA Today. The teams with negative cap adjustments had most likely earned more NLTBE incentives in 2013 than they did not earn LTBE incentives.

In 2014 the Patriots received a credit of $2,002,250 toward their 2014 cap number because of the LTBE/NTLBE calculation. The 2014 Patriots adjusted cap of $139,109,051 consists of $133,000,000 (League Cap) + $2,002,250 (LTBE/NLTBE adjustment) + $4,106,081 (rollover amount from 2013 season.

LTBE Incentives ($7,473,750 total)

  • Matthew Slater has a 300K LTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Vince Wilfork’s weight bonus – $300,000.
  • Vince Wilfork’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 1.
  • Brandon Browner’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 5
  • Rob Ninkovich’s playing time incentive – $250,000 if he plays in at least 75% of the defensive snaps in 2014. Ninkovich played in 95.5% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Ninkovich has played in 92.5% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui’s playing time incentive – $400,000. Hoomananawanui played in 57.5% of the offensive snaps in 2013. Hoomanawanui has played in 45.7% of the offensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Sebastian Vollmer’s 70% playing-time incentive- $1,000,000. In November the Patriots and Sebastian Vollmer agreed to lower the playing-time levels needed to earn incentives. Quoting the CBA – Any new or altered incentive bonuses renegotiated in a preexisting contract after the start of the regular season in which they may be earned automatically will be deemed “likely to be earned” during that season”. Therefore, this incentive is considered LTBE not because Vollmer made the incentive in 2013 but because the incentive was changed during the 2014 regular season.

46-man per-game roster bonuses – As of November 19, 11:45 AM, the Patriots have $4,223,750 in 46-man active roster bonuses that are now counting against their 2014 cap.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 per active game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $1,200,000 ($150,000*8). Browner has been active for four games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $350,000 ($87,500*4). Wilfork has already reached this incentive since he has been active for all 10 games this year.
  • Darrelle Revis had a $33,333 per game roster bonus that maxes at $500,000 (15 games). Revis played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000. Revis has been active for all 10 games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $375,000 ($31,250*12). Amendola has been active for all 10 games this year.
  • Julian Edelman has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Edelman played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000 ($31,250*16). Edelman has been active for all 10 games this year.
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $187,500 ($31,250*6). Mayo has already reached this incentive since he had been active for 6 games this year.
  • Rob Ninkovich has a $15,625 per game roster bonus. Ninkovich played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $250,000 ($15,625*16). Ninkovich has been active for all 10 games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $180,000 ($15,000*12). Chung has been active for all 10 games this year
  • Brandon Lafell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Lafell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Lafell has been active for all 10 possible games this year.
  • Ryan Wendell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Wendell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Wendell has been active for 8 games this year.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $81,250 ($6,250 *13). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 10 games this year

NLTBE Incentives ($9,416,250 total)

        • Rob Ninkovich has a 200K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
        • Kyle Arrington has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive – Like to thank Ben Volin for reminding me of this incentive.
        • Sebastian Vollmer has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
        • Jerod Mayo has a 300K NLTBE Pro Bowk incentive
        • Sebastian Vollmer’s playing time incentive – another $1 million if he plays in 80% of the offensive snaps. Vollmer has placed in 91.9% of the offensive snaps this year.
        • Vince Wilfork’s Playing-time incentives:
          • If he plays 50 percent of the defensive snaps: $500,000
          • If he plays 60 percent of the defensive snaps: $1.25 million
          • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps: $2 million
          • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team makes the divisional round of the playoffs, he makes $2.5 million
          • If Wilfork plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team is top 10 in points allowed, he earns $500,000

          Vince Wilfork has played in 75% of the defensive snaps this year. Patriots are 13th in points allowed.

        • Brandon Browner can earn up to $1.25 million in playing-time incentives. Do not know the trigger levels at this time.Brandon Browner played in 435% of the snaps in 2013. He has played in 33.1% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014
        • Danny Amendola has a $500,000 NLTBE incentive that is tied to receptions. Do not know the exact trigger levels at this time but presume that the trigger level is no less than 64 receptions since that is the number of catches Amendola had with the Rams in 2012. Like to thank the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin for informing me of this incentive.Danny Amendola has had 11 receptions so far in 2014.
        • Julian Edelman has a $500,000 NTLBE incentive that can be earned in one of the following four ways:
          1. 1,057 receiving yards
          2. 70 receptions plus seven TDs
          3. 80 receptions plus 13 wins
          4. 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance

          After 10 games, Julian has 58 receptions totaling 592 yards. He has 2 receiving touchdowns and the Patriots have won eight games.

        Per the CBA, “Any roster bonus which is deemed not “likely to be earned” based upon the player’s performance during the prior year shall immediately be included in Team Salary when earned” so as the below players play in more games in 2014 than they did in 2013 the Patriots will lose cap space in the amount of the 46-man active roster bonus. Example – Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013. He has played in 8 games in 2014. The Patriots have lost $350,000 ($87,500 *4) in cap space so far this season.

        • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $300,000 ($150,000*2). Browner has been been active for 4 games this year.
        • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 46-man active per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $1,050,000 ($87,500*12). Wilfork has been active for all 10 games this year.
        • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $125,000 ($31,250*4). Amendola has been active for all 10 games this year.
        • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $60,000 ($15,000*4). Chung has been active for all 10 games this year
        • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $18,750 ($6,250*3). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 10 games this year
        • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $312,500 ($31,250 * 10). Mayo was active for 6 games this year.
        Amount Event Likelihood
        $200,000 Ninkovich making the Pro Bowl Possible
        $250,000 Arrington making the Pro Bowl Unlikely
        $250,000 Vollmer making the Pro Bowl Possible
        $300,000 Mayo making the Pro Bowl Impossible
        $1,000,000 Vollmer exceeding 80% playing time Probable
        $2,000,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time Probable
        $500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots making to the divisional round Probable
        $500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots finishing in Top 10 in Points allowed Possible
        $1,250,000 Browner’s exceeding playing-time incentives Unlikely
        $500,000 Amendola’s receptions incentive Unlikely
        $500,000 Edelman has four different ways to earn this incentive.
        1.) 1,057 receiving yards
        2.) 70 receptions plus seven TDs
        3.) 80 receptions plus 13 wins
        4.) 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance
        Probable
        $525,000 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for more than 4 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
        $525,000 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Wilfork misses decrease amount by $87,500. Probable
        $125,000 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Amendola misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $31,250. Possible
        $60,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Chung misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $15,000. Probable
        $300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 11 games. For each game Browner misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $150,000. Probable
        $18,750 Hoomanawanui being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Hoomanawanui misses up to a total of three missed games decrease amount by $6,250. Probable
        $312,500 Mayo being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Impossible
        $300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 12 games. Impossible
        Impossible $912,500
        Unlikely Total $2,000,000
        Possible Total $1,450,000
        Probable Total $4,616,250
        Earned Total $437,500
        NLTBE Incentive Total $9,416,250

        As far as I know, the Patriots will not be credited with any unreached LTBE incentives (Wendell’s being inactive for two games, for example) in 2014. What will happened is that any unreached LTBE incentives will be used to offset NLTBE incentives that were actually earned by other players at the end of the year and there will be an adjustment made to the Patriots 2014 rollover amount

        After Week 11 projection
        Negative means that the player reached a NLTBE incentive
        Positive means that the player did not earned a LTBE incentive

        • Edelman’s receptions (-$500,000)
        • Wilfork’s playing time incentive (- $2,000,000)
        • Vollmer’s playing-time incentive (- $2,000,000)
        • Wendell’s per-game roster bonus ($25,000)
        • Hoomanawanui’s playing-time incentive ($400,000)
        • Totals (-$4,075,000)Let’s say that the Patriots end the 2014 regular season with $6.5 million in cap space. The $4.075 million will be subtracted from that resulting in a previous year carryover amount of $2.425 million.

Tracking New England Patriots incentives as of Week 10

Last year I kept track of incentives on the PatsFans.com messageboard. This year I will keep track using this blog.

I consider the next paragraph the best explanation of how the LTBE/NLTBE incentives work. I forgot where I got it from.

LTBE bonuses count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned, NLTBE bonuses do not. At the end of the season, the NFL calculates how much each team had set aside for LTBEs that weren’t earned – or said differently, it figures out how much was charged to the team’s cap that was not actually spent. Similarly, the NFL calculates the amount of incentives designated NLTBE that were actually earned. If the unearned LTBEs are greater than the earned NLTBEs, then the following year’s salary cap for that team is increased by the net amount. Similarly, if the earned NLTBEs exceed the unearned LTBEs, then the team’s cap for the following year is lowered by that amount. You can see an example of the effect of cap adjustments at USA Today. The teams with negative cap adjustments had most likely earned more NLTBE incentives in 2013 than they did not earn LTBE incentives.

In 2014 the Patriots received a credit of $2,002,250 toward their 2014 cap number because of the LTBE/NTLBE calculation. The 2014 Patriots adjusted cap of $139,109,051 consists of $133,000,000 (League Cap) + $2,002,250 (LTBE/NLTBE adjustment) + $4,106,081 (rollover amount from 2013 season.

LTBE Incentives ($7,473,750 total)

  • Matthew Slater has a 300K LTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Vince Wilfork’s weight bonus – $300,000.
  • Vince Wilfork’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 1.
  • Brandon Browner’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 5
  • Rob Ninkovich’s playing time incentive – $250,000 if he plays in at least 75% of the defensive snaps in 2014. Ninkovich played in 95.5% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Ninkovich has played in 91.9% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui’s playing time incentive – $400,000. Hoomananawanui played in 57.5% of the offensive snaps in 2013. Hoomanawanui has played in 46.7% of the offensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Sebastian Vollmer’s 70% playing-time incentive- $1,000,000. In November the Patriots and Sebastian Vollmer agreed to lower the playing-time levels needed to earn incentives. Quoting the CBA – Any new or altered incentive bonuses renegotiated in a preexisting contract after the start of the regular season in which they may be earned automatically will be deemed “likely to be earned” during that season”. Therefore, this incentive is considered LTBE not because Vollmer made the incentive in 2013 but because the incentive was changed during the 2014 regular season.

46-man per-game roster bonuses – As of November 11, 6APM, the Patriots have $4,223,750 in 46-man active roster bonuses that are now counting against their 2014 cap.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 per active game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $1,200,000 ($150,000*8). Browner has been active for three games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $350,000 ($87,500*4). Wilfork has already reached this incentive since he has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Darrelle Revis had a $33,333 per game roster bonus that maxes at $500,000 (15 games). Revis played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000. Revis has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $375,000 ($31,250*12). Amendola has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Julian Edelman has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Edelman played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000 ($31,250*16). Edelman has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $187,500 ($31,250*6). Mayo has already reached this incentive since he had been active for 6 games this year.
  • Rob Ninkovich has a $15,625 per game roster bonus. Ninkovich played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $250,000 ($15,625*16). Ninkovich has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $180,000 ($15,000*12). Chung has been active for all 9 possible games this year
  • Brandon Lafell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Lafell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Lafell has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Ryan Wendell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Wendell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Wendell has been active for 7 games this year.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $81,250 ($6,250 *13). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 9 possible games this year

NLTBE Incentives ($9,416,250 total)

    • Rob Ninkovich has a 200K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
    • Kyle Arrington has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive – Like to thank Ben Volin for reminding me of this incentive.
    • Sebastian Vollmer has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
    • Jerod Mayo has a 300K NLTBE Pro Bowk incentive
    • Sebastian Vollmer’s playing time incentive – $2 million if he plays in 80% of the offensive snaps, $1 million if he plays in 70% of the offensive snaps. Vollmer has placed in 91.2% of the offensive snaps this year.
    • Vince Wilfork’s Playing-time incentives:
      • If he plays 50 percent of the defensive snaps: $500,000
      • If he plays 60 percent of the defensive snaps: $1.25 million
      • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps: $2 million
      • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team makes the divisional round of the playoffs, he makes $2.5 million
      • If Wilfork plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team is top 10 in points allowed, he earns $500,000

      Vince Wilfork has played in 76.1% of the defensive snaps this year. Patriots are 12th in points allowed.

    • Brandon Browner can earn up to $1.25 million in playing-time incentives. Do not know the trigger levels at this time.Brandon Browner has played in 27.9% of the defensive snaps in 2014
    • Danny Amendola has a $500,000 NLTBE incentive that is tied to receptions. Do not know the exact trigger levels at this time but presume that the trigger level is no less than 64 receptions since that is the number of catches Amendola had with the Rams in 2012. Like to thank the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin for informing me of this incentive.Danny Amendola has had 9 receptions so far in 2014.
    • Julian Edelman has a $500,000 NTLBE incentive that can be earned in one of the following four ways:
      1. 1,057 receiving yards
      2. 70 receptions plus seven TDs
      3. 80 receptions plus 13 wins
      4. 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance

After 9 games, Julian has 54 receptions totaling 556 yards. He has 2 receiving touchdowns and the Patriots have won seven games.

Per the CBA, “Any roster bonus which is deemed not “likely to be earned” based upon the player’s performance during the prior year shall immediately be included in Team Salary when earned” so as the below players play in more games in 2014 than they did in 2013 the Patriots will lose cap space in the amount of the 46-man active roster bonus. Example – Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013. He has played in 8 games in 2014. The Patriots have lost $350,000 ($87,500 *4) in cap space so far this season.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $300,000 ($150,000*2). Browner has been been active for 3 games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 46-man active per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $1,050,000 ($87,500*12). Wilfork has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $125,000 ($31,250*4). Amendola has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $60,000 ($15,000*4). Chung has been active for all 9 possible games this year
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $18,750 ($6,250*3). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 9 possible games this year
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $31,250 ($31,250 * 10). Mayo has been active for 6 games this year.
Amount Event Likelihood
$200,000 Ninkovich making the Pro Bowl Unlikely
$250,000 Arrington making the Pro Bowl Unlikely
$250,000 Vollmer making the Pro Bowl Possible
$300,000 Mayo making the Pro Bowl Impossible
$1,000,000 Vollmer exceeding 80% playing time Probable
$2,000,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time Probable
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots making to the divisional round Possible
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots finishing in Top 10 in Points allowed Possible
$1,250,000 Browner’s exceeding playing-time incentives Unlikely
$500,000 Amendola’s receptions incentive Unlikely
$500,000 Edelman has four different ways to earn this incentive.
1.) 1,057 receiving yards
2.) 70 receptions plus seven TDs
3.) 80 receptions plus 13 wins
4.) 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance
Probable
$437,500 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for more than 4 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$612,500 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Wilfork misses decrease amount by $87,500. Probable
$125,000 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Amendola misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $31,250. Possible
$60,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Chung misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $15,000. Probable
$300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 11 games. For each game Browner misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $150,000. Probable
$18,750 Hoomanawanui being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Hoomanawanui misses up to a total of three missed games decrease amount by $6,250. Probable
$312,500 Mayo being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Impossible
$300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 12 games. Impossible
Impossible $912,500
Unlikely Total $2,000,000
Possible Total $1,450,000
Probable Total $4,616,250
Earned Total $437,500
NLTBE Incentive Total $9,416,250

As far as I know, the Patriots will not be credited with any unreached LTBE incentives (Wendell’s being inactive for two games, for example) in 2014. What will happened is that any unreached LTBE incentives will be used to offset NLTBE incentives that were actually earned by other players at the end of the year and there will be an adjustment made to the Patriots 2014 rollover amount

Week 9 projection
Negative means that the player reached a NLTBE incentive
Positive means that the player did not earned a LTBE incentive

  • Edelman’s receptions (-$500,000)
  • Wilfork’s playing time incentive (- $2,000,000)
  • Vollmer’s playing-time incentive (- $2,000,000)
  • Wendell’s per-game roster bonus ($25,000)
  • Hoomanawanui’s playing-time incentive ($400,000)
  • Totals (-$4,075,000)Let’s say that the Patriots end the 2014 regular season with $6.5 million in cap space. The $4.075 million will be subtracted from that resulting in a previous year carryover amount of $2.425 million.

It was reported/rumored during the first week in June that the Patriots and Devin McCourty had started talks about extending his contract which is due to expire after the 2014 season. It seems appropriate to now look at his comparables and propose a contract that I consider fair to both him and the Patriots. Please note that I consider McCourty to be an elite safety.

Updated on November 5th to update the franchise tag numbers and to provide a 2015 deal

Background information: Devin was the 1st round pick of the Patriots in 2010. Devin was drafted as a cornerback and was permanently switched to safety during the 2012 season. Top cornerbacks are paid higher than top safeties. For example, the franchise tag figure for cornerbacks this year was $10.081 million while the franchise tag for safeties was $7.253 million. Earl Thomas who is the highest paid safety averages 10 million cap hit in his deal. There are four cornerbacks with a higher average. Devin has earned enough escalators in his rookie contract to increase his 2014 salary by $3,050,000 to $3,920,000. His 2014 cap number is $5,115,000. Devin McCourty who will be 27 when the 2014 starts was selected to the Associated Press’s All-Pro 2nd team in 2013. There have been four recent rankings of the NFL’s Top 100 players. They were done by Pro Football Focus, CBS Sportsline’s Pete Prisco, CBS Sportsline’s Pat Kirwan, and NFL players as tabulated by NFL Network.

Player Pro Football Focus Pete Prisco Pat Kirwan NFL Players
Earl Thomas 20 10 12 17
Eric Berry 37 54 33 50
Kam Chancellor 28 73 72 65
Troy Polamalu 95 99 100 61
Eric Weddle 96 34 92
T.J. Ward 100 76
Devin McCourty 22 62
Jarius Byrd 71 37
Antrell Rolle 72

Now let’s look at some financial comparables. Jarius Byrd is 10 months older than McCourty and played under the franchise tag ($6.916 million) in 2013. Byrd’s contract contains $26.3 million in guarantees, a record for a veteran safety deal. His 2014 salary is fully guaranteed. His 2015 roster bonus became fully guaranteed in late March. 6 million of his 2016 salary is now guaranteed for injury. Will become fully guaranteed the 3rd day of the 2016 League Year.

Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
2014 $1,300,000 $2,200,000 $6,000,000 $100,000 $3,500,000 $18,300,000 ($14,800,000)
2015 $2,000,000 $2,200,000 $0 $0 $10,300,000 $14,800,000 ($4,500,000)
2016 $7,400,000 $2,200,000 $0 $100,000 $9,700,000 $6,600,000 $3,100,000
2017 $7,900,000 $2,200,000 $300,000 $100,000 $10,500,000 $4,400,000 $6,100,000
2018 $8,400,000 $2,200,000 $300,000 $100,000 $11,000,000 $2,200,000 $8,800,000
2019 $8,600,000 $0 $300,000 $100,000 $9,000,000 $0 $9,000,000

Earl Thomas was also drafted in the first round in 2010. Thomas was selected in 2011 to the Associated Press Second-team All-Pro In 2012 and in 2013 Earl Thomas was selected to the Associated Press’ All-Pro first team, Sporting News’ All Pro team, and the Pro Football Writers of America’s All-Pro team. Earl Thomas is a year and 9 months younger than McCourty. His 2014 and 2015 salaries are fully guaranteed. 6 million of his 2016 salary is guaranteed. Do not know if the 2016 guarantee is currently full or guaranteed for injury now and then become fully guaranteed later.

Year Base Salary 2014 Prorated Bonus 2010 Signing Bonus Proration 2011 Salary Advance Proration Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
2014 $4,750,000 $1,900,000 $100,000 $648,212 $7,373,212 $14,225,000 ($6,851,788)
2015 $5,500,000 $1,900,000 $0 $0 $7,400,000 $12,100,000 ($4,700,000)
2016 $8,000,000 $1,900,000 $0 $0 $9,900,000 $5,700,000 $4,200,000
2017 $8,500,000 $1,900,000 $0 $0 $10,400,000 $3,800,000 $6,600,000
2018 $8,500,000 $1,900,000 $0 $0 $10,400,000 $1,900,000 $8,500,000

Eric Weddle, a member of the 2013 Associated Press’ All Pro 2nd team, signed his current 5 year $40 million deal in 2011. Kam Chancellor, yet another member of the AP All Pro 2nd team, signed a four-year, $28 million extension in April, 2013. Antrell Rolle, one more member of the AP All-Pro 2nd team, signed a five year, $37 million deal with the Giants in 2010 when he was 27. Dashon Goldson signed his 5-year, $41.5 million deal in March, 2013. William Moore signed his 5-year, $30 million deal in March, 2013. Michael Griffin signed his 5-year, $35 million deal in June of 2012. This offseason six safeties got deals that averaged over 5 million a year. Mike Mitchell who will turn 27 in June received a 5-year $25 million deal. Reshad Jones who is 26 years old got a 5yr $29.3m deal from the Dolphins. Antoine Bethea got a 4yr, 22m deal from the 49ers. Donte Whitner signed a four year, $28 million contract with the Browns on March 11, 2014.
T.J. Ward got a four-year, $22.5 million contract from the Broncos. T.J. received a $5 million signing bonus. His 2014 salary is fully guaranteed. His 2015 salary and roster bonus are currently guaranteed for injury only. Will become fully guaranteed the 5th day of the 2015 League Year.

T.J. Ward
Year Base Salary 2014 Signing Bonus Proration Roster Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
2014 $2,000,000 $1,250,000 $0 $3,250,000 $13,500,000 ($10,250,000)
2015 $4,000,000 $1,250,000 $2,000,000 $6,250,000 $9,750,000 ($3,000,000)
2016 $4,500,000 $1,250,000 $0 $5,750,000 $2,500,000 $3,250,000
2017 $4,500,000 $1,250,000 $0 $5,750,000 $1,250,000 $4,500,000

On October 12th, 2014 CBS Sportline’s Jason LaCanfora reported that the percentage that will be used to determine the franchise tag number for safeties will be 6.713%. The below table lists the possible franchise tag numbers for McCourty if the league cap is between $140 million and $144 million.

League Cap Safety Franchise Tag Number
$140,000,000 $9,398,000
$141,000,000 $9,465,000
$142,000,000 $9,532,000
$143,000,000 $9,600,000
$144,000,000 $9,667,000

If the 2015 cap is $142 million and if McCourty is tagged again in 2016, McCourty’s 2016 cap number would be $11.438 million, a 20% increase over his 2015 projected franchise tag number of $9.532 million. If tagged two straight seasons, McCourty will have garnered in cash close to $25 million over 3 years (2014/2015/2016). Therefore, it seems reasonable to venture that a McCourty extension in the $7 to $8 million per year average range would be fair for both sides and would recognize that McCourty sacrificed dollars in his move from the cornerback position to the safety position. An extension could keep McCourty’s 2014 cap number the same. Here’s one such an example of how:

Extend McCourty through the 2018 season.
Give him a $10 million signing bonus which would be prorated over 5 years (2014/2015/2016/2017/2018)
Lower his salary from $3,920,000 to $1,920,000.
Current cap number of $5,115,000 consists of:
$3,920,000 salary
$1,145,000 signing bonus proration
$50,000 offseason workout bonus money

Proposed 2014 cap number of $5,115,000 consists of:
$1,920,000 salary (fully guaranteed)
$1,145,000 existing bonus proration
$2,000,000 new signing bonus proration
$50,000 offseason workout bonus money

Proposed 2015 cap number of $8,000,000 consists of:
$5,950,000 salary (5 million fully guaranteed)
$2,000,000 signing bonus proration
$50,000 offseason workout bonus money

Proposed 2016 cap number of $8,000,000 consists of:
$5,950,000 salary
$2,000,000 signing bonus proration
$50,000 offseason workout bonus money

Proposed 2017 cap number of $8,000,000 consists of:
$5,000,000 salary
$2,000,000 signing bonus proration
$50,000 offseason workout bonus money

Proposed 2018 cap number of $8,000,000 consists of:
$5,950,000 salary
$2,000,000 signing bonus proration
$50,000 offseason workout bonus money

This deal averages 8 million per year in new money over the four extended years. That 8M APY would tie Eric Weddle for the 5 highest APY for a safety.

Devin McCourty
Year Base Salary 2014 Prorated Bonus 2010 Signing Bonus Proration Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
2014 $1,920,000 $2,000,000 $1,145,000 $50,000 $5,115,000 $16,920,000 ($11,805,000)
2015 $5,950,000 $2,000,000 $0 $50,000 $8,000,000 $13,000,000 ($5,000,000)
2016 $5,950,000 $2,000,000 $0 $50,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $2,000,000
2017 $5,950,000 $2,000,000 $0 $50,000 $8,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000
2018 $5,950,000 $2,000,000 $0 $50,000 $8,000,000 $2,000,000 $6,000,000

Let’s say that the Patriots and McCourty do not reach an extension during the 2014 season. Please note that the deadline to do so is 4PM, EST, December 27th. I can see the Patriots and McCourty reaching a deal similar to the one below.The 2015 and 2016 salaries would be fully guaranteed and 2 million of his 2016 salary would also be fully guaranteed.

Devin McCourty
Year Base Salary 2015 Signing Bonus Proration Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
2015 $1,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $20,000,000 ($16,000,000)
2016 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $5,000,000 $16,000,000 ($11,000,000)
2017 $5,000,000 $3,000,000 $8,000,000 $11,000,000 ($3,000,000)
2018 $7,000,000 $3,000,000 $10,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000
2019 $9,000,000 $3,000,000 $12,000,000 $3,000,000 $9,000,000

Eric Weddle received a $13 million signing bonus. His 2011 and 2012 salaries were fully guaranteed.

Eric Weddle
Year Base Salary 2011 Signing Bonus Proration Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
2011 $1,000,000 $2,600,000 $3,000,000 $19,000,000 ($16,000,000)
2012 $5,000,000 $2,600,000 $7,600,000 $15,400,000 ($7,800,000)
2013 $6,000,000 $2,600,000 $8,600,000 $7,800,000 $200,000
2014 $7,500,000 $2,600,000 $10,100,000 $5,200,000 $5,900,000
2015 $7,500,000 $2,600,000 $10,100,000 $2,600,000 $7,500,000

http://overthecap.com/freeagents.php?Position=S&Year=2015 lists the safeties who like McCourty will become a free agent after this season. As of now, Devin McCourty should be considered the best available free agent safety. The only projected free agent safety that I consider in McCourty’s class is Antrell Rolle, who is close to 4 1/2 years older than McCourty.

http://overthecap.com/top-player-salaries.php?Position=S
lists the APYs for safeties.

A extension with a 4M APY would make McCourty the 24th highest paid safety.
5M APY would tie McCourty for 20th
6M APY would tie McCourty for 14th
7M APY would tie McCourty for 9th
7.5M APY would make McCourty the 6th highest paid safety
8M APY would tie McCourty for 5th
8.5M APY would make McCourty the 3rd highest paid safety

Previewing the New England Patriots 2015 Salary Cap – Updated on November 4, 2014

I had asked my Twitter followers what should be my next bog post. A couple of them asked for a 2015 salary cap preview. Please note that I have used parts of an Adamjt13 and ninercaphell posts as a template for this post.

These numbers were updated on November 3, 2014.

Quick summary – The Patriots are going to have to make several difficult and most likely unpopular decisions in the next year to become active participants in 2015 free agency. For the purpose of this exercise, I will presume that the 2015 salary cap will be $142 million, splitting the difference from recent reports that it will be between $140 million and $144 million.

I will first list the 20 pending free agents after 2014, then list the 41 New England Patriots under contract for the 2015 season.

  1. ERFA – James Develin, FB – Expect Develin to be tendered in 2015 at a salary of $585,000
  2. ERFA – Greg Orton, WR – Expect Orton to be tendered for the 2015 season at a salary of $435,000
  3. ERFA – James Morris, LB – Expect Morris to be tendered for the 2015 season at a salary of $435,000.
  4. ERFA – Sealver Siliga, DT – Expect Siliga to be tendered in 2015 at a salary of $660,000
  5. ERFA – Brian Tyms, WR – Expect Tyms to be tendered in 2015 at a salary of $585,000.
  6. ERFA – Casey Walker, DT – Expect Walker to be tendered for the 2015 season at a salary of $510,000.
  7. RFA – Brandon Bolden, RB – Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley, and Shane Vereen are probably in a battle to see who will be the Patriots starting running back in 2015 with the losers going elsewhere in free agency.
  8. UFA – Danny Aiken, LS – Expect Aiken to be signed to another veteran minimum salary deal in 2015
  9. UFA – Akeem Ayers, LB – If Ayers continues to play at a high level, he will probably be looking to increase his salary from $1.1 million
  10. UFA – Alan Branch, DT – Would not be surprised if this is the only year that Branch is on the Patriots roster as the Patriots try to go younger and cheaper on the defensive line.
  11. UFA – Marcus Cannon, T – Marcus Cannon is probably leaving the Patriots after this season to try to become a starter elsewhere.
  12. UFA – Jonathan Casillas, LB – Expect Casillas to be signed to a veteran minimum salary benefit deal before the start of the 2015 League Year
  13. UFA – Patrick Chung, S – Patrick is playing well enough in 2014 to compete for a roster spot in 2015.
  14. UFA – Dan Connolly, G – Connolly will probably have to take a paycut from his 2014 3 million salary to be on the Patriots in 2015.
  15. UFA – Stephen Gostkowski, K – Expect the Ghost to be extended before the start of the 2015 League Year.
  16. UFA – Devin McCourty, S – As he gets closer to free agency, the cost to extend him increases. McCourty is the one Patriot free agent who could be franchised in 2015. I talk about his comparables and propose a contract extension in this blog post.
  17. UFA – Stevan Ridley, RB – Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley, and Shane Vereen are probably in a battle to see who will be the Patriots starting running back in 2015 with the losers going elsewhere in free agency.
  18. UFA – Matthew Slater, WR/Special Teams Ace – Expect Slater to be extended before the start of the 2015 League Year.
  19. UFA – Shane Vereen, RB – Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley, and Shane Vereen are probably in a battle to see who will be the Patriots starting running back in 2015 with the losers going elsewhere in free agency.
  20. UFA – Chris White – Expect White to be signed to a veteran minimum salary benefit deal before the start of the 2015 League Year

Now let us take a look at the players under contract in descending order by current 2015 cap number.

  1. CB Darrelle Revis($25M cap charge) – If he plays well in 2014, Revis will have a lot of leverage in his negotiations with the Patriots when the two meet to lower his 2015 cap number.
  2. QB Tom Brady ($13,000,000 cap charge) – One of the league’s best quarterbacks at a bargain price. Could see the Patriots lowering his cap number even further by converting six million of his salary into a signing bonus. Such a move would save the Patriots $4 million in 2015.
  3. LB Jerod Mayo($10,287,500 cap charge) – Mayo must stay healthy and play well in 2015 in order to remain worthy of such a high cap charge.
  4. TE Rob Gronkowski ($8,650,000 cap charge) – Gronk must stay healthy and play well in 2015 in order to remain worthy of such a high cap charge. Otherwise, I could see the Pats releasing him before the start of the 2015 League Year so as to avoid guaranteeing his 2015 $4.75 million salary.
  5. DT Vince Wilfork ($8,214,583 cap charge) – Vince must stay healthy and play well in 2015 in order to remain worthy of such a high cap charge. Otherwise, I could see the Pats releasing him before the start of the 2015 League Year so as to avoid paying him his 2015 $4 million roster bonus that is due the first day of the 2015 League Year. Since Vince has a 46-man active roster bonus, he will increase his 2015 cap number by $31,250 a game for every game he plays the rest of the 2014 season
  6. LT Nate Solder($7,438,000 cap charge) – His $7,438,000 salary becomes fully guaranteed the first day of the 2015 League Year
  7. WR Danny Amendola ($5,575,000 cap charge) – Yet another Patriot that must stay healthy and play well in 2015 in order to remain worthy of such a high cap charge.
  8. CB Brandon Browner($4.7M cap charge) – Browner must avoid getting suspended once again by the NFL. Otherwise, I could see the Pats releasing him before the start of the 2015 League Year so as to avoid paying him his 2015 $2 million roster bonus that is due the first day of the 2015 League Year.
  9. CB Kyle Arrington ($4.625M cap charge) – Would not be surprised if Arrington is approached by the Patriots to lower his 3 million salary, especially if Logan Ryan, Dennard or Malcolm Butler surpasses him on the depth chart.
  10. OT Sebastian Vollmer ($4.5625M cap charge) – Vollmer just signed an extension in 2013 so the Patriots obviously view SeaBass as the future at RT. The more he plays in 2014, the higher his 2015 cap number will be.
  11. WR Julian Edelman($4.25M cap charge) – Edelman just signed an extension in 2014 so it is very likely that he will be on the Patriot roster in 2015
  12. DE Rob Ninkovich($3.95M cap charge) – Ninkovich just signed an extension in 2013 and as of April 11th there is no replacement on the Patriots roster so we should expect Ninkovich on the Patriots 2015 roster.
  13. WR Brandon Lafell($3M cap charge) – Currently a bargain in 2015.
  14. DE Chandler Jones ($2,600,659 cap charge) – With his 2015 salary fully guaranteed Chandler Jones is ensured a roster spot in 2015
  15. LB Dont’a Hightower ($2,457,637 cap charge) – With his 2015 salary fully guaranteed Hightower is ensured a roster spot in 2015
  16. TE Michael Hoomanawanui ($1,361,250 cap charge) – An excellent price for what the Hooman brings to the table.
  17. DT Dominique Easley ($1,659,898 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor/starter locked in a cheap price through the 2017 season thanks to his rookie contract.
  18. C Ryan Wendell ($1.625M cap charge) – Wendell must return to the level of play he demonstrated in 2012 to be on the roster in 2015. If he plays in 2014 like he did in 2013, I expect the Patriots to release him early in 2015.
  19. CB Alfonzo Dennard ($1,517,462 cap charge) – Because he played so much in 2012 and 2013 Dennard raised his 2015 salary to the projected low RFA tender of $1.503 million which will make his 2015 cap charge $1,517,462.
  20. CB Tavon Wilson ($1,347,057 cap charge) – Would not be surprised if Tavon does not make the 2014 roster which would mean that his 2015 cap number would drop to $376,891, the 2015 proration of his signing bonus.
  21. LB Jamie Collins ($1,025,728 cap charge) – Expected 2014 starter locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his rookie contract.
  22. WR Aaron Dobson ($935,010 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor/starter locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his rookie contract.
  23. CB Logan Ryan ($745,813 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his rookie contract
  24. S Duron Harmon ($724,400 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor/starter locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his rookie contract
  25. QB Jimmy Garoppolo ($723,436 cap charge) – 2014 backup locked in at a cheap price through the 2016 season thanks to his rookie contract.
  26. S Nate Ebner ($684,150 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor locked in at a cheap price thanks to his rookie contract
  27. C Bryan Stork ($629,250 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor/starter locked in at a cheap price through the 2016 season thanks to his rookie contract.
  28. RB James White ($609,272 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor locked in at a cheap price through the 2016 season thanks to his rookie contract.
  29. DE Michael Buchanan ($598,403 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his rookie contract
  30. P Ryan Allen ($585,500 cap charge) – Expected 2014 punter locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his rookie contract
  31. OT Cameron Fleming ($585,146 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor locked in at a cheap price through the 2017 season thanks to his rookie
  32. DT Chris Jones ($585,000 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his rookie contract
  33. S Don Jones ($585,000 cap charge) – Locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season
  34. OG Josh Kline ($585,000 cap charge) – Expected 2014 contributor locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his rookie contract
  35. TE Tim Wright ($585,000 cap charge) – Locked in at a cheap price through the 2014 season. Signed through the 2015 season but able to renegotiate his deal after the 2014 season.
  36. DE Zach Moore ($535,550 cap charge) - Locked in at a cheap price through the 2017 season thanks to his rookie contract.
  37. CB Malcolm Butler ($510,000 cap charge) – Locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his UDFA contract.
  38. OT Jordan Devey ($510,000 cap charge) – Locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his UDFA contract
  39. RB Jonas Gray ($510,000 cap charge) – Locked in at a cheap price through the 2015 season thanks to his UDFA contract
  40. LB Cameron Gordon ($440,000 cap charge) – Cameron was placed on IR before the advent of the 2014 regular season and will need to take advantage of his opportunity – a thin depth chart at linebacker – in order to make the 2015 roster.
  41. RB Tyler Gaffney ($435,000 cap charge) – Tyler will spend the 2014 season on Injured Reserve.

Please note that I am using one of Adamjt13′s post as a template for this portion. I currently have the 2015 Patriots’ current cap number as $133,760,023 with 41 signed players. For simplicity sake, I will round this figure to $134 million. The following factors will change that:

  • Exclusive Rights Free agents – The Patriots are scheduled to have six players eligible for exclusive rights free agency in 2015. Sealver Siliga’s tender offer will be $660,000. James Develin and Brian Tyms will be tendered at $585,000. Casey Walker will be tendered at $510,000. James Morris and Greg Orton will be tendered at $435,000. Add the six to the Top 51 list will add $3 million to the Patriots 2015 cap commitments making it now $137 million with 47 players signed or tendered.
  • Voided years – I am projecting that no Patriot had voided years in their contracts. By rule, the prorated signing bonuses from the voided years would have accelerated into 2014, and, after using the remaining 2014 cap space, would have carried over into 2015.
  • Restricted free agents. The Patriots have one player eligible for restricted free agency – Brandon Bolden who was undrafted. Below are the possible projected tenders.
    • Level 1: $1,503,000 (Right of First Refusal)
    • Level 2: $1,503,000 or 110% of 2014 salary (Original Round Pick)
    • Level 3: $2,296,000 or 110% of 2014 salary (Second Round Pick)
    • Level 4: $3,269,000 or 110% of 2014 salary (First Round Pick)

    I believe that the Patriots will not tender Brandon Bolden at the Right of First Refusal level ($1,503,000) which will make Bolden an free agent in 2015.

  • Minimum salary increase – Any player whose base salary specified in his contract is lower than the minimum salary for a player of his experience level is automatically given a raise to the minimum salary. For 2015, this situation does NOT yet apply to a Patriots player. A player has to be on the 53-man roster for at least 3 games in 2014 for 2014 to count as a credited season.
  • Proven Performance Escalator – As part of the new CBA there is a proven performance escalator for draft picks chosen in Round 3 through 7. Nate Ebner, and Alfonzo Dennard are eligible for it in 2015. An eligible player will qualify for the Proven Performance Escalator in his fourth League Year if: (1) he participated in a minimum of 35% of his Club’s offensive or defensive plays in any two of his previous three regular seasons; or (2) he participated in a “cumulative average” of at least 35% of his Club’s offensive or defensive plays over his previous three regular seasons. Jake Bequette has played in 2.7% of the defensive snaps in 2012 and 1% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Nate Ebner played in 3.3% of the defensive snaps in 2012 and 0.4% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Alfonzo Dennard played in 53.3% of the defensive snaps in 2012 and 62.3% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Irregardless of what he does in 2014, Alfonzo Dennard has already reached the escalator so his 2015 cap number will increase from $674,462 to $1,517,462, an increase of $843,000.After all of the above we have $137 million in 2015 cap commitments with 47 players signed or tendered.
  • If the Patriots extend in 2014 a player who would otherwise be a free agent after the 2014 season, this would increase the Patriots 2014 cap commitments.
  • How much 2014 cap space the Patriots roll over into 2015. Teams are allowed to roll over 100% of their unused cap space from one year to the following year. As of now, the Patriots officially have $8,786,391 in cap space. The Patriots will lose cap space throughout the year as five players (Wilfork, Browner, Amendola, Chung, and Hooman) play in more games in 2014 than they did in 2013.
    • Amendola’s per-game roster bonus – $125,000 if Amendola plays all 16 games
    • Hoomanawanui’s per-game roster bonus – $18,750 if Hoomanawanui plays all 16 games
    • Browner’s per-game roster bonus – $300,000 if Browner plays in 10 games
    • Wilfork’s per-game roster bonus – $1,050,000 if Wilfork plays all 16 games.
    • Chung’s per-game roster bonus – $60,000 if Chung plays all 16 games.
  • Incentives adjustment – I think that more Patriots will reach their incentives than will not which will decrease the amount of cap space that the Pats can carry over into 2015. As of November 4 the Patriots have about $4,500,000 in NLTBE incentives that I consider easily reachable by the player.
    • Wilfork’s playtime incentive – he earns 2 million dollars at 70%. In 2011 he played in 86% and in 2012 he played in 87%. He gets an extra 500K if he plays in more than 70% of the defensive snaps and the Patriots are in the Top 10 in points allowed. He gets another 500K if he plays in more than 70% of the defensive snaps and the Patriots make it to the divisional round of the playoffs. Wilfork’s playing-time percentage for 2014 after Week 9 is 76.1%.
    • Vollmer’s playing time incentive – $2 million if he plays in 90% of the offensive snaps, $1 million if he plays in 80% of the offensive snaps. Vollmer’s playing-time percentage for 2014 after Week 9 is 91.2%

    A reached NLTBE incentive in 2014 can adversely impacts the Patriots 2015 cap in two ways. It will lower the team’s 2015 adjusted cap number while also increasing the player’s cap number for 2015. Let’s use Vollmer as an example. Let’s presume that he plays in 95% of the offensive snaps in 2014. For simplicity sake, let’s also pretend that no other Patriot had incentives in their contract. By playing in over 90% of the offensive snaps, that would mean that he reached his 2 million NTLBE playing time incentive. Let’s assume that the 2015 cap is announced to be $140 million. The Patriots adjusted cap number would be decreased by the $2 million making it $138 million. Because he reached the incentive in 2014, the 90% playing time would be considered LTBE for 2015 increasing Vollmer’s cap number from $4.5 million to $6.5 million. That reached NLTBE incentive just lowered the Patriots 2015 cap space by $4 million. As you can see by that example, it is possible that as players reach their NTLBE incentives in 2014 the Patriots 2015 cap space will shrink greatly. For more information about incentives and their possible impact on the Patriots 2015 cap please see this blog post of mine

  • When the 2011 lockout ended with the adoption of the new CBA, the Salary Cap was reduced from $132M in 2009 to $120.6M in 2011. As a way to ease the transition into this lower Cap, the transition rules allow teams to “borrow” $4.5M over the first two seasons of the new CBA ($3M in 2011, $1.5M in 2012). From the CBA – “Clubs shall identify in writing to the NFL prior to the beginning of each of the 2014-17 League Years, the amount of any offset described in Subsections (i) and (ii) above that shall apply for such League Year. If a Club has not identified its entire offset as of the first day of the 201 6 League Year, then the remaining offset balance shall apply in the 2017 League Year.
    Do not know if the Patriots borrowed cap space in 2011 or in 2012. Heard that most teams did. Do know that they did not pay back cap space in 2014. Do know that some other teams (Jets – $4.5 million; Ravens and Steelers – $1.125 million; Texans – $1.5 million; Colts – $3 million) did pay back cap space right before the start of the 2014 League Year. If the Patriots did “borrow” cap space in 2011/2012, they could decide to pay back some of it in 2015. They have until 2017 to do so. They could wait until them to do so.
  • Aaron Hernandez – The most cap relief I expect that Patriots to get from Aaron Hernandez is $4,466,800. $4,466,800 equals $3,250,000 (final installment of signing bonus which was due on March 31, 2014) plus $1,216,800 (the total grievance amount that I think hit the 2013 cap). Given that Hernandez’s murder trials are scheduled after the start of the 2015 League Year, if the Pats do win the right to withhold the $3.25 million signing bonus I take this portion of the CBA – In the event that a Club receives a refund from the player of any previously-paid Salary, or the Club fails to pay any previously allocated portion of a signing bonus (including any amount treated as signing bonus), such amount as has previously been included in Team Salary shall be credited to the Club’s Team Salary for the next League Year it is likely that the $3.25 million credit will hit the 2016 cap as the Pats have not yet won the right to withheld the final installment of Hernandez’s signing bonus. Precedent – The Patriots received a credit on their 2014 salary for the 2013 partial return of Jonathan Fanene’s signing bonus. On the other hand, there is precedent for the Patriots receiving credit during the 2015 league year if they happen to win the $1,216,800 grievance over Hernandez’s guaranteed salaries and workout bonus. I do not believe that the Patriots will ever get a full credit for the $12.5 million signing bonus as I expect Aaron Hernandez to spend most, if not all, of his money on legal fees and settling lawsuits. For more information on Aaron Hernandez please see this blog.
  • Franchise tag – If the Patriots are unable to reach a deal with Devin McCourty or Stephen Gostkowski, the Patriots could use the franchise tag on one of them. Using $142 million as the 2015 league number it would cost $9.53 million to place the franchise tag on McCourty. It would cost $4,440,000 to place the franchise tag on Stephen Gostkowski

To sum it up, I can easily see the Patriots being close to the 2015 projected cap of $142 million before the 2015 League Year begins and having to make moves in order to free cap room in order to sign free agents.

Here’s a breakdown of some of the more interesting cap issues facing the Patriots in 2015 and beyond:

The big leaps: Four contracts may have huge salary-cap increases in 2015 — cornerback Darrelle Revis, left tackle Nate Solder, right tackle Sebastian Vollmer and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Revis’ cap cost will go from $7 million this year to $25 million next year. Solder’s cap cost will go from $2,717,429 to $7,438,000. Vollmer’s cap cost may go from $3,750,000 in 2014 to $7,750,000 in 2015. Vollmer is on pace to play in over 90% of the offensive snaps in 2014 which would make his 2015 $1.75 million playing-time incentive LTBE and earn him a 1 million roster bonus in 2015. Also, Vollmer’s $625,500 46-man active roster bonuses would be considered LTBE in 2015. Gronk’s cap cost will go from $5,400,000 in 2014 to $8,650,000 in 2015.

Smaller bounces: The other cap jumps in 2015 are more modest. Vince Wilfork, Danny Amendola, Kyle Arrington, Rob Ninkovich, Julian Edelman and Brandon Browner are all scheduled for increases between $1 million and $3 million. No one else on the roster is scheduled to go up by more than $500,000.

Big decisions coming right around the start of the 2015 League Year

  • Darrelle Revis – The Patriots have an option on Revis’ April 1, 2015 roster bonus. They must decide to pick up the option or not by the end of the 2014 League Year. Have created a blog post dedicated to examining Darrelle Revis’s comparables and proposing six different contracts for him and the Patriots.
  • Brandon Browner – Brandon Brown earns a $2 million roster bonus if he is on the Patriots 90-man roster the first day of the 2015 League Year
  • Vince Wilfork – Vince Wilfork earns a $4 million roster bonus if he is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year
  • Rob Gronkowski – Gronk’s 2015 $4.75 million salary becomes fully guaranteed if he is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year. Also, if Gronk is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year there will be a $2 million proration of his 2016 million option bonus that will officially hit the Patriots 2015 cap.
  • Rob Ninkovich – 1 million of Ninkovich’s 2015 salary becomes fully guaranteed the 5th day of the Patriots league year.
  • Nate Solder – Solder’s 2015 $7.438 million salary becomes fully guaranteed if he is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year.

A look at the Patriots’ 2015 contracts shows that 12 players make up over seventy percent of the 2015 projected cap number. Those 12 players have a combined 2015 cap hit of $100,252,583, or 71 percent of the projected cap number of $142 million. Excluding Revis, the 11 players have a combined 2015 cap hit of $75,252,583, or 53 percent of the $142 million figure.

They are:

  1. $25,000,000 ……Darrelle Revis
  2. $13,000,000 ……Tom Brady
  3. $10,287,500 ……Jerod Mayo
  4. $8,650,000 ……Rob Gronkowski
  5. $8,214,533 ……Vince Wilfork
  6. $7,438,000 ……Nate Solder
  7. $5,575,000 ……Danny Amendola
  8. $4,700,000 ……Brandon Browner
  9. $4,625,000 ……Kyle Arrington
  10. $4,562,500 ……Sebastian Vollmer
  11. $4,250,000 ……Julian Edelman
  12. $3,950,000 ……Rob Ninkovich
  13. $3,000,000 ……Brandon Lafell

Safe to say that anybody on that list, other than Brady and Gronkowski, could become a cap casualty after this upcoming season.

Any player the Patriots release or trade after June 1, 2014 season will give the Patriots dead money on the 2015 cap if the player had a signing bonus that was still being pro-rated over the 2015 season. To determine the amount of dead money add the remaining pro-rated amounts and any guaranteed salaries. The longer the player is still under contract and the larger his initial signing bonus, the higher that number will be.

How much dead money in 2015 would the Patriots have after releasing some of their higher-priced players after June 1, 2014?

  • $5,000,000 …..Darrelle Revis * dead money increases to $17,000,000 the begining of the 2015 League Year
  • $6,000,000 …..Jerod Mayo *increases to $10.5 million if release is injury-related
  • $3,300,000 …..Rob Gronkowski * dead money increases to $10,050,000 the beginning of the 2015 League Year
  • $866,667 …..Vince Wilfork * dead money increases to $4,866,667 the begininng of the 2015 League Year
  • $0 …..Nate Solder * dead money increases to $7,438,000 the beginning of the 2015 League Year
  • $3,600,000 …..Danny Amendola
  • $0 …..Brandon Browner * dead money increases to $2,000,000 the beginning of the 2015 League Year
  • $3,250,000 …..Kyle Arrington
  • $3,500,000 …..Sebastian Vollmer
  • $3,750,000 …..Julian Edelman
  • $2,500,000 …..Rob Ninkovich * dead money increases to $3,500,000 the 5th day of the 2015 League Year
  • $2,000,000 …..Brandon Lafell

Subtract dead money and $435,000 (salary of the player who will take released player’s spot in the Top 51 list) from the player’s 2015 cap number to get the potential cap savings. Example, Amendola has a 2015 cap number of $5,575,000. Subtract $3,600,000 from that and you get $1,975,000. Subtract $435,000 from $1,975,000 and you get $1,540,000 in cap savings.

Of course, the Patriots could reach extensions with some Patriots to lower their 2015 cap numbers, most notably Revis and Solder.

As of September 2, 2014 the Patriots have a total of $4,616,819 hitting the 2015 cap as dead money.

I started off this post stating that the Patriots are going to have to make several difficult and most likely unpopular decisions in the next year to become active participants in 2015 free agency. I would like to end up this post with my predictions.

  • Pick up Revis’ option? No.
  • Extend Revis’ option? Only if the APY of the real money in the deal is $14 million or lower.
  • Pick up Browner’s option? If he plays well in 2014, Yes. Otherwise, no.
  • If Revis and Browner are part of the Patriots’ long term plans, Arrington will probably be released sometime in 2015
  • Release Gronk before the start of the 2015 League Year? Yes, only if he misses a good number of games in 2014.
  • Keep the running back duo of Ridley and Vereen? No. One will remain a Patriot. The other will attempt to find success elsewhere in the NFL.
  • Keep the trio of Lafell, Amendola and Edelman for the 2015 season? One maybe two will have to go to create cap space and roster space for the younger wideouts on the team.
  • Keep Mayo? If Mayo has a repeat of the 2013 season and Jamie Collins steps up in 2014 Mayo may be too expensive to keep in 2015 so I expect him and the Patriots to reach an incentive-laden deal for the 2015 season
  • Reach a deal with McCourty? Yes

For more information about the 2015 Patriots salary cap page see my 2015 Patriots salary cap page

Tracking New England Patriots incentives as of Week 9

Last year I kept track of incentives on the PatsFans.com messageboard. This year I will keep track using this blog.

I consider the next paragraph the best explanation of how the LTBE/NLTBE incentives work. I forgot where I got it from.

LTBE bonuses count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned, NLTBE bonuses do not. At the end of the season, the NFL calculates how much each team had set aside for LTBEs that weren’t earned – or said differently, it figures out how much was charged to the team’s cap that was not actually spent. Similarly, the NFL calculates the amount of incentives designated NLTBE that were actually earned. If the unearned LTBEs are greater than the earned NLTBEs, then the following year’s salary cap for that team is increased by the net amount. Similarly, if the earned NLTBEs exceed the unearned LTBEs, then the team’s cap for the following year is lowered by that amount. You can see an example of the effect of cap adjustments at USA Today. The teams with negative cap adjustments had most likely earned more NLTBE incentives in 2013 than they did not earn LTBE incentives.

In 2014 the Patriots received a credit of $2,002,250 toward their 2014 cap number because of the LTBE/NTLBE calculation. The 2014 Patriots adjusted cap of $139,109,051 consists of $133,000,000 (League Cap) + $2,002,250 (LTBE/NLTBE adjustment) + $4,106,081 (rollover amount from 2013 season.

LTBE Incentives ($6,473,750 total)

  • Matthew Slater has a 300K LTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Vince Wilfork’s weight bonus – $300,000.
  • Vince Wilfork’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 1.
  • Brandon Browner’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 5
  • Rob Ninkovich’s playing time incentive – $250,000 if he plays in at least 75% of the defensive snaps in 2014. Ninkovich played in 95.5% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Ninkovich has played in 91.9% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui’s playing time incentive – $400,000. Hoomananawanui played in 57.5% of the offensive snaps in 2013. Hoomanawanui has played in 46.8% of the offensive snaps so far in 2014.

46-man per-game roster bonuses – As of November 3, 9APM, the Patriots have $4,223,750 in 46-man active roster bonuses that are now counting against their 2014 cap.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 per active game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $1,200,000 ($150,000*8). Browner has been active for three games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $350,000 ($87,500*4). Wilfork has already reached this incentive since he has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Darrelle Revis had a $33,333 per game roster bonus that maxes at $500,000 (15 games). Revis played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000. Revis has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $375,000 ($31,250*12). Amendola has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Julian Edelman has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Edelman played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000 ($31,250*16). Edelman has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $187,500 ($31,250*6). Mayo has already reached this incentive since he had been active for 6 games this year.
  • Rob Ninkovich has a $15,625 per game roster bonus. Ninkovich played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $250,000 ($15,625*16). Ninkovich has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $180,000 ($15,000*12). Chung has been active for all 9 possible games this year
  • Brandon Lafell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Lafell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Lafell has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Ryan Wendell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Wendell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Wendell has been active for 7 games this year.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $81,250 ($6,250 *13). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 9 possible games this year

NLTBE Incentives ($10,416,250 total)

    • Rob Ninkovich has a 200K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
    • Kyle Arrington has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
    • Sebastian Vollmer has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
    • Jerod Mayo has a 300K NLTBE Pro Bowk incentive
    • Sebastian Vollmer’s playing time incentive – $2 million if he plays in 80% of the offensive snaps, $1 million if he plays in 70% of the offensive snaps. Vollmer has placed in 91.2% of the offensive snaps this year.
    • Vince Wilfork’s Playing-time incentives:
      • If he plays 50 percent of the defensive snaps: $500,000
      • If he plays 60 percent of the defensive snaps: $1.25 million
      • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps: $2 million
      • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team makes the divisional round of the playoffs, he makes $2.5 million
      • If Wilfork plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team is top 10 in points allowed, he earns $500,000

      Vince Wilfork has played in 76.1% of the defensive snaps this year. Patriots are 12th in points allowed.

    • Brandon Browner can earn up to $1.25 million in playing-time incentives. Do not know the trigger levels at this time.Brandon Browner has played in 27.9% of the defensive snaps in 2014
    • Danny Amendola has a $500,000 NLTBE incentive that is tied to receptions. Do not know the exact trigger levels at this time but presume that the trigger level is no less than 64 receptions since that is the number of catches Amendola had with the Rams in 2012.Danny Amendola has had 9 receptions so far in 2014.
    • Julian Edelman has a $500,000 NTLBE incentive that can be earned in one of the following four ways:
      1. 1,057 receiving yards
      2. 70 receptions plus seven TDs
      3. 80 receptions plus 13 wins
      4. 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance

After 9 games, Julian has 54 receptions totaling 556 yards. He has 2 receiving touchdowns and the Patriots have won seven games.

Per the CBA, “Any roster bonus which is deemed not “likely to be earned” based upon the player’s performance during the prior year shall immediately be included in Team Salary when earned” so as the below players play in more games in 2014 than they did in 2013 the Patriots will lose cap space in the amount of the 46-man active roster bonus. Example – Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013. He has played in 8 games in 2014. The Patriots have lost $350,000 ($87,500 *4) in cap space so far this season.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $300,000 ($150,000*2). Browner has been been active for 3 games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 46-man active per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $1,050,000 ($87,500*12). Wilfork has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $125,000 ($31,250*4). Amendola has been active for all 9 possible games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $60,000 ($15,000*4). Chung has been active for all 9 possible games this year
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $18,750 ($6,250*3). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 9 possible games this year
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $31,250 ($31,250 * 10). Mayo has been active for 6 games this year.
Amount Event Likelihood
$200,000 Ninkovich making the Pro Bowl Unlikely
$250,000 Arrington making the Pro Bowl Unlikely
$250,000 Vollmer making the Pro Bowl Possible
$300,000 Mayo making the Pro Bowl Impossible
$2,000,000 Vollmer exceeding 80% playing time Probable
$2,000,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time Probable
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots making to the divisional round Possible
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots finishing in Top 10 in Points allowed Possible
$1,250,000 Browner’s exceeding playing-time incentives Unlikely
$500,000 Amendola’s receptions incentive Unlikely
$500,000 Edelman has four different ways to earn this incentive.
1.) 1,057 receiving yards
2.) 70 receptions plus seven TDs
3.) 80 receptions plus 13 wins
4.) 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance
Probable
$437,500 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for more than 4 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$612,500 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Wilfork misses decrease amount by $87,500. Probable
$125,000 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Amendola misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $31,250. Possible
$60,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Chung misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $15,000. Probable
$300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 11 games. For each game Browner misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $150,000. Probable
$18,750 Hoomanawanui being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Hoomanawanui misses up to a total of three missed games decrease amount by $6,250. Probable
$312,500 Mayo being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Impossible
$300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 12 games. Impossible
Impossible $912,500
Unlikely Total $2,000,000
Possible Total $1,450,000
Probable Total $5,616,250
Earned Total $437,500
NLTBE Incentive Total $10,416,250

As far as I know, the Patriots will not be credited with any unreached LTBE incentives (Wendell’s being inactive for two games, for example) in 2014. What will happened is that any unreached LTBE incentives will be used to offset NLTBE incentives that were actually earned by other players at the end of the year and there will be an adjustment made to the Patriots 2014 rollover amount

Week 9 projection
Negative means that the player reached a NLTBE incentive
Positive means that the player did not earned a LTBE incentive

  • Edelman’s receptions (-$500,000)
  • Wilfork’s playing time incentive (- $2,000,000)
  • Vollmer’s playing-time incentive (- $2,000,000)
  • Wendell’s per-game roster bonus ($25,000)
  • Hoomanawanui’s playing-time incentive ($400,000)
  • Totals (-$4,075,000)Let’s say that the Patriots end the 2014 regular season with $6.5 million in cap space. The $4.075 million will be subtracted from that resulting in a previous year carryover amount of $2.425 million.

2014 New England Patriots Salary Cap Breakdown – Dead Money (11/2/2014 Update)

Updating this to include the impact of the release/waivers that have taken place during the first half of the 2014 regular season.

Aaron Hernandez- $7,532,800 (prorated signing bonus plus grievance over 2012 offseason workout bonus money). I write more about Aaron Hernandez’s salary cap implications in another blog post.
Logan Mankins – $4,255,600 (prorated signing bonus plus offseason workout bonus money)
Isaac Sopoaga – $1,000,000 (guaranteed salary)
Steve Gregory – $833,334 (prorated signing bonus)
Adrian Wilson – $666,667
Tommy Kelly – $605,600 (prorated signing bonus plus offseason workout bonus money)
Ras-I Dowling -$589,382
Daniel Fells – $333,334
Deontae Skinner – $202,947
Matt Stankiewitch – $178,235 (2013 Injury Grievance settled in late summer of 2014)
Ryan Mallett – $166,569 (prorated signing bonus plus offseason workout bonus money)
Kenbrell Thompkins – $152,021
Jake Bequette – $145,550 (prorated signing bonus plus offseason workout bonus money)
Josh Boyce – $124,850 (prorated signing bonus plus offseason workout bonus money)
Ja’Gared Davis – $99,824
Danny Aiken – $85,600
Lavelle Hawkins – $75,000
Chris Barker – $63, 835
Armon Armstead – $59,600
Darius Fleming – $58,235
Steve Beauharnais – $37,412 (2014 Injury Settlement)
Jon Halapio – $30,775
Kelcy Quarles – $24,706 (Week 1 pay as a rookie)
Jemea Thomas – $23,128
Will Smith – $19,200
Asa Watson – $18,000 (Watson was waived by the New England Patriots on August 10 after receiving a $3,000 signing bonus on May 10 and having $17,000 of his salary guaranteed. The $18,000 is the dead money hit that resulted from his waiver)
Stephen Houston – $17,500 (Houston was waived by the New England Patriots on August 10 after receiving a $7,500 signing bonus and having $15,000 of his salary guaranteed. The $17,500 is the dead money hit that resulted from his waiver)
Steve Beauharnais – $17,498
James Anderson – $16,225
Jeremy Gallon – $11,898
Justin Jones – $11,666 (Justin Jones was waived by the New England Patriots on August 10 after receiving a $5,000 signing bonus on May 10 and having $10,000 of his salary guaranteed. The $11,666 is the dead money hit that resulted from his waiver)
Sudfeld, Zachary -$8,000
Ben Bartholomew – $6,667
Roy Finch – $6,666 (Roy Finch was waived by the New England Patriots on August 31 after receiving a $5,000 signing bonus on May 10 and having $5,000 of his salary guaranteed. The $6,666 is the dead money hit that resulted from his waiver)
Shamiel Gary – $6,666 (Shamiel Gary was waived by the New England Patriots on August 31 after receiving a $5,000 signing bonus on May 10 and having $5,000 of his salary guaranteed. The $6,666 is the dead money hit that resulted from his waiver)
Travis Hawkins – $6,666 (Travis Hawkins was waived by the New England Patriots on August 31 after receiving a $5,000 signing bonus on May 10 and having $5,000 of his salary guaranteed. The $6,666 is the dead money hit that resulted from his waiver)
Braxston Cave – $5,600 (offseason workout bonus)
Ja’Gared Davis – $5,600 (offseason workout bonus)
Kanorris Davis – $5,600 (offseason workout bonus)
Reggie Dunn – $5,600 (offseason workout bonus)
Marcus Forston – $5,600 (offseason workout bonus)
Jonas Gray – $5,600 (offseason workout bonus)
Justin Green – $5,600 (offseason workout bonus)
Chris White – $5,600 (offseason workout bonus)
D.J. Williams – $5,600 (offseason workout bonus)
T.J. Moe – $5,334
Josh Hull – $5,250 (offseason workout bonus)
R.J. Mattes – $5,250 (offseason workout bonus)
Mark Harrison – $5,200 ($4,200 offseason workout bonus)
Jeremy Deering – $5,000 (guaranteed salary)
Elvis Fisher – $5,000
Deontae Skinner – $5,000
Markus Zusevics – $4,334
Tyler Ott – $4,000
Kanorris Davis – $3,334 (Davis was waived by the Pats on 8/31/2013 after receiving a signing bonus in May, 2013. The $3,334 is the dead money hit that resulted from his waiver.
Chris McDonald -$3,334
Cory Grissom – $2,667
Josh Kline – $2,667 (Kline was waived by the Pats on 9/2/2013 after receiving a signing bonus in May, 2013. The $2,667 is the dead money hit that resulted from his waiver)
Charley Hughlett – $2,450 (offseason workout bonus)
Francis, Justin – $2,334
Jones, Brandon – $2,334
Dax Swanson – $2,100 (offseason workout bonus)
Ford, Brandon – $2,000
Morris, Stephon – $1,667
Stankiewitch, Matt – $1,667
Tyler Beck – $1,500
Zupancic, Mike – $1,334
Kyle Auffray – $700 (offseason workout bonus)
Cherrington, Dewayne $667
Quentin Hines – $667
Michael Jenkins – (-$79,200)
Jonathan Fanene – (-$360,000)
Total – $17,324,534

Examining Tom Brady’s future with the Patriots – Updated on October 31, 2014

During the first week of October it was widely reported/speculated that the relationship between the New England Patriots and Tom Brady had soured and the Patriots had commenced examining at releasing or trading the face of the franchise – Tom Brady. Soon after those reports we started to see articles about Tom Brady’s salary cap numbers. I am writing this blog not because I believe that the Patriots will cut/trade Tom Brady this year but to provide my take on the salary cap implications on releasing/trading Tom Brady and to hopefully provide accurate information. I am writing this blog while listening to October 7 Patriots Football Weekly podcast. Hopefully, this will help Paul, Fred, Eric, and Paul understand the cap better:)

Background information: In late February 2013 Tom Brady who was signed through the 2014 season agreed to an deal that extended his contract 3 more years so that he would be under contract with the Patriots through the 2017 season. In doing so he received a $30 million signing bonus and agreed to lower his 2013 and 2014 salaries while eliminating his $5 million roster bonus and $250,000 roster bonuses. Please note that under Brady’s old deal his 2013 $9.75 million and his 2013 offseason workout bonus would have become fully guaranteed the 5th day of the 2013 League Year (March 17th, 2013) and his 2014 $9.75 million and his 2014 offseason workout bonus would have been fully guaranteed if Tom Brady was on the Patriots roster the last week of the 2013 regular season. As part of the extension Brady’s 2013 and 2014 salaries were fully guaranteed. His 2015/2016/2017 salaries were guaranteed for only injury when Brady signed the extension. They will become fully guaranteed if Brady is on the roster Week 17 of the 2014 season. If Tom Brady is on the Patriots roster Week 17, the Patriots then have to put into escrow with the NFL the $24 million.

Brady’s Old Deal
2013 2014
Salary $9,750,000 $9,750,000
Existing Signing Bonus Proration $6,800,000 $6,800,000
Roster Bonus $5,000,000 $5,000,000
Workout Bonus $250,000 $250,000
Totals $21,800,000 $21,800,000
Brady’s 2013 Extension
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Salary $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000 $9,000,000
Existing Signing Bonus Proration $6,800,000 $6,800,000
2013 Signing Bonus Proration $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000
Totals $13,800,000 $14,800,000 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000

Note: When a player is released or traded, the remaining amounts of proration in a contract accelerate into his team’s current salary cap. For example, if a player signs a five-year contract with a $10 million signing bonus, $2 million of his signing bonus counts towards the salary cap for each year of his contract. If he is released after the second year of his contract, the $4 million of signing bonus proration from the last two years of the contract automatically accelerates into the club’s current cap, which results in $6 million of dead money. There are two major exceptions to this general rule. Only the current year’s proration counts towards the cap with players released or traded after June 1 and before the trading deadline. The proration from the remaining contract years doesn’t accelerate until the next year. A team can also release two players each year prior to June 1st who will be treated under the cap as if they were released after June 1. This is known as a “Post-June 1 designation” – Source – Joel Corry’s piece about dead money

Note that when a player with future guaranteed salaries is released all future guaranteed salaries immediately hit that year’s salary cap.

The next two tables show graphically the implications of first releasing Brady and then lastly trading the best quarterback in Patriots history. The two tables presume that Brady completes the 2014 season on the Patriots roster thereby guaranteeing his 2015/2016/2017 salaries. Please note that Brady’s guaranteed salaries do not contain an offset. That is, if released and signed by another team the Patriots will not receive a credit the following year for the money paid to him by his new team. I will address the cap implications of releasing/trading Brady during this season later on.

Cap Implications of Cutting Tom Brady after this season
Date Total to Keep in 2015 Total to Keep in 2016 Total to Keep in 2017 2015 Cap Number if Cut 2016 Cap Number if Cut 2017 Cap Number if Cut 2015 Cap Savings 2016 Cap Savings 2017 Cap Savings
During the 2015 season and before 6/2/2015 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $42,000,000 $0 $0 (-$29,000,000) $14,000,000 $15,000,000
During the 2015 season and after 6/1/2015 or given the June 1 designation $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $30,000,000 $12,000,000 $0 (-$17,000,000) $2,000,000 $15,000,000
During the 2016 season and before 6/2/2016 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $13,000,000 $29,000,000 $0,000 $0 $(-$15,000,000) $15,000,000
During the 2016 season and after 6/1/2016 or given the June 1 designation $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $13,000,000 $23,000,000 $6,000,000 $0 $(-$9,000,000) $9,000,000
Anytime during the 2017 season $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $13,000,000 $0 $0 $0
Cap Implications of Trading Tom Brady after this season
Date Total to Keep in 2015 Total to Keep in 2016 Total to Keep in 2017 2015 Cap Number if Traded 2016 Cap Number if Traded 2017 Cap Number if Traded 2015 Cap Savings 2016 Cap Savings 2017 Cap Savings
During the 2015 season and before 6/2/2015 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $18,000,000 $0 $0 (-$5,000,000) $14,000,000 $15,000,000
During the 2015 season and after 6/1/2015 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $6,000,000 $12,000,000 $0 $7,000,000 $2,000,000 $15,000,000
During the 2016 season and before 6/2/2016 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $13,000,000 $12,000,000 $0 $0 $2,000,000 $15,000,000
During the 2016 season and after 6/1/2016 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $13,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $0 $8,000,000 $9,000,000
Anytime during the 2017 season $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $6,000,000 $0 $0 $9,000,000

As you can see above, there is no point in time after this season in which the Patriots would save cap space by releasing Brady. As you can also see above, starting on June 2, 2015 the Patriots will create cap space by trading Brady.

The Patriots will not save any cap space in 2014 by releasing Gisele’s husband because Tom Brady, as a vested veteran, is eligible for termination pay. Any Termination Pay liability hits a team’s salary cap at the time the player is released. Releasing Tom Brady before Week 17 would prevent the fully guaranteed salaries from kicking in. Releasing Tom Brady before Week 17 would increase his 2014 salary cap number of $14,805,600 to $32,805,600 as there is a rule that when veterans are released after the trading deadline future signing bonus prorations hit the present year cap (Source – http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=1664796). Releasing Tom Brady before Week 17 would cause the Patriots to lose over 18 million in cap space as the Patriots would be expected to replace Brady on the 53-man roster. Releasing Tom Brady before Week 17 would lower his 2015 cap number from $13 million to zero.

If they do not trade Brady before the 2014 trade deadline, per the CBA, teams like the Patriots cannot trade in 2015 players like Tom Brady until after the 2015 League Year begins. Before the 2015 League Year begins, the Patriots will have to decide on the following:

  1. Darrelle Revis – The Patriots have an option on Revis’ April 1, 2015 roster bonus. They must decide to pick up the option or not by the end of the 2014 League Year. Have created a blog post dedicated to examining Darrelle Revis’s comparables and proposing six different contracts for him and the Patriots.
  2. Brandon Browner – Brandon Browner earns a $2 million roster bonus if he is on the Patriots 90-man roster the first day of the 2015 League Year
  3. Vince Wilfork – Vince Wilfork earns a $4 million roster bonus if he is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year
  4. Rob Gronkowski – Gronk’s 2015 $4.75 million salary becomes fully guaranteed if he is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year. Also, if Gronkowski is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year there will be a $2 million proration of his 2016 million option bonus that will officially hit the Patriots 2015 cap.
  5. Nate Solder – Solder’s 2015 $7.438 million salary becomes fully guaranteed if he is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year.
  6. Devin McCourty – If the Patriots do not reach an extension with McCourty before the franchise tag deadline, they have to decide whether or not to place the franchise tag on Devin McCourty. Have created a blog post dedicated to examining McCourty’s comparables and proposing an extension between him and the Patriots.

Let’s say that the Patriots retain 3 or more of the 6 above players. What would the Patriots then trade Brady? Let’s say that the Patriots retain 3 or more of the 6 above players. Can they then afford to increase Brady’s 2015 cap number by 5 million?

Let’s say that the Patriots release Brady before Week 17 so as to avoid guaranteeing his 2015/2016/2017 salaries. Why would any of the six players work with the Patriots to redo their deals so as to lower their 2015 cap numbers.

There have been some articles contending that the Patriots can afford to have Brady’s 2015 cap number increased from $13 million to $18 million via a trade because they are currently carrying so much cap space. One article reported that the Patriots had at the time of its writing $14,464,425 in cap space. That number was referenced from the NFLPA site.. The problem of doing so is that site has not yet reflected the expiration of the Top 51 rule. That is, the site was reporting on September 1, 2014 that the Patriots had over $13.5 million in cap space. Since then the following has happened:
1.) Paying for the 10-man practice squad – minimum of $1.7 million – Occurred on 9/4
2.) Accounting for Brian Tyms – 400K – Occurred on 9/4
3.) Paying for the 4 players who were already on IR – $1.212 million – Occurred on 9/4
4.) Paying for players 52 and 53 – 840K – Occurred on 9/4
5.) Reaching injury settlements with Steve Beauharnais and Armond Armstead – Steve Beauharnais reached a two-week injury settlement with the Patriots. The amount of $37,412 is now counting against the Patriots 2014 cap. ESPNBoston.Com’s Mike Reiss reported on September 14, 2014 that Armond Armstead and the New England Patriots reached an injury settlement in the amount of $54,000.
6.) Matt Stankiewitch won his injury grievance to the tune of $178,235.
7.) All the roster moves done after Week 1.

Therefore, it is unlikely that the NFLPA number of $14,464,425 was correct. Please note that starting on October 20 the NFLPA now has a new salary cap space page – https://nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report. On 5:25 PM October 31st the NFLPA page has the Patriots with $8,590,934 in cap space.

Whatever the Patriots cap space number is it is NOT likely that the Patriots will end the season with the same number. I talked about why in two blog posts. One lists 7 possible reasons for the cap space. The main reason is to account for the $8 million in NLTBE incentives. The second main reason is to have cap space to sign players to replace players who are placed on injured reserve after October 10.

Below are some questions that I expect this blog to create:
1.) Question: Why would releasing Brady before June 2nd in 2015 cause a $42 million dead money hit? Answer: The $42 million is a total of the $18 million in remaining signing bonus prorations and the $24 million in guaranteed salaries
2.) Question: When can the Patriots redo Jimmy Garoppolo’s deal? Answer: After the 2016 regular season.
3.) Question: How much dead money do the Patriots have for the 2015 season? Answer: According to my numbers – $4,616,819
4.) Question: What will be the salary cap in 2015? Answer: Heard projections that the 2015 cap will between $141 million to $144 million. As the 2015 League Year gets closer, we will hear more definitive numbers. Right around the start of the 2015 League Year is when we will find out the Patriots 2015 adjusted cap number. As I did last offseason I plan to predict the Patriots 2015 adjusted cap number this upcoming offseason.
5.) Question: How would a $18 million dead money hit in 2015 rank in NFL history? Answer: According to my research it would be the largest dead money hit for one player in one season. I believe that the current high is Richard Seymour’s 2013 hit of $13.714 million.

Current status of 2013 Patriots ending roster as of October 29, 2014

Surname First End of 2013 Status Current Status
Aiken Danny 53 man roster 53 man roster
Allen Ryan 53 man roster 53 man roster
Amendola Danny 53 man roster 53 man roster
Armstead Armond NFI Retired
Arrington Kyle 53 man roster 53 man roster
Barker Chris 53 man roster Waived
Beauharnais Steve 53 man roster Waived
Bequette Jake 53 man roster Waived
Blount LaGarette 53 man roster Signed with Another Team
Bolden Brandon 53 man roster 53 man roster
Boyce Josh IR Waived
Brady Tom 53 man roster 53 man roster
Buchanan Michael 53 man roster IR
Cannon Marcus 53 man roster 53 man roster
Carter Andre 53 man roster Unsigned
Cave Braxston Practice Squad Waived
Collie Austin 53 man roster Unsigned
Collins Jamie 53 man roster 53 man roster
Connolly Dan 53 man roster 53 man roster
Davis Ja’Gared 53 man roster Waived
Davis Kanorris 53 man roster Waived
Dennard Alfonzo 53 man roster 53 man roster
Develin James 53 man roster 53 man roster
Devey Jordan Practice Squad 53 man roster
Dobson Aaron 53 man roster 53 man roster
Dunn Reggie Practice Squad Waived
Ebner Nate 53 man roster 53 man roster
Edelman Julian 53 man roster 53 man roster
Fletcher Dane 53 man roster Signed with Another Team
Forston Marcus Practice Squad Waived
Gostkowski Stephen 53 man roster 53 man roster
Green Justin 53 man roster Traded
Gregory Steve 53 man roster Released
Grissom Cory IR Waived
Gronkowski Rob IR 53 man roster
Harmon Duron 53 man roster 53 man roster
Harrison Mark NFI Waived
Hightower Dont’a 53 man roster 53 man roster
Hoomanawanui Michael 53 man roster 53 man roster
Jones Chandler 53 man roster 53 man roster
Jones Chris 53 man roster 53 man roster
Kelly Tommy IR Released
Kline Josh 53 man roster 53 man roster
Mallett Ryan 53 man roster Traded
Mankins Logan 53 man roster Traded
Mattes R.J. Practice Squad Waived
Mayo Jerod IR IR
McCourty Devin 53 man roster 53 man roster
McGuffie Sam Practice Squad Waived
Moe T.J. IR Waived
Mulligan Matthew 53 man roster Signed with Another Team
Ninkovich Rob 53 man roster 53 man roster
Orton Greg Practice Squad IR
Reed Taylor Practice Squad Waived
Ridley Stevan 53 man roster IR
Ryan Logan 53 man roster 53 man roster
Siliga Sealver 53 man roster IR
Slater Matthew 53 man roster 53 man roster
Solder Nate 53 man roster 53 man roster
Sopoaga Isaac 53 man roster Released
Spikes Brandon IR Signed with Another Team
Svitek Will 53 man roster Unsigned
Talib Aqib 53 man roster Signed with Another Team
Thompkins Kenbrell 53 man roster Waived
Vellano Joe 53 man roster Waived
Vereen Shane 53 man roster 53 man roster
Vollmer Sebastian IR 53 man roster
Wendell Ryan 53 man roster 53 man roster
White Chris 53 man roster 53 man roster
Wilfork Vince IR 53 man roster
Williams D.J. 53 man roster Released
Wilson Adrian IR Released
Wilson Tavon 53 man roster 53 man roster
Zusevics Markus IR Waived

Below is a summary.

53 man roster 53
53 man roster 30
IR 3
Released 3
Signed with Another Team 4
Traded 3
Unsigned 3
Waived 7
IR 11
53 man roster 3
IR 1
Released 2
Signed with Another Team 1
Waived 4
NFI 2
Retired 1
Waived 1
Practice Squad 8
53 man roster 1
IR 1
Waived 6
Grand Total 74

As of 9/13/2014 I have the Patriots unofficially with about $9.5 million in cap space. Below are some reasons for the Patriots to have that much cap space.

1.) Cushion for reached NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses – maximum of $2.2 million
2.) Cushion for other reached NLTBE incentives. Do know that Wilfork could earn 3M, Vollmer 2M, Browner 1.25M, Edelman 500K. Am sure that other players have NLTBE incentives but do not know the details. For more information about incentives and their possible impact on the Patriots salary cap please see this blog post.
3.) Pay for players who replaced players who are placed on IR during the season – around 2M
4.) Have space for extensions (Ridley, Vereen, Cannon, Solder, Gostkowski. McCourty, Revis, Slater). Some extensions could increase player’s 2014 cap number.
5.) Carry over space to pay back borrowed cap space in 2011/2012. Do not know if the Pats did borrow cap space. They may have. Teams could borrow $3M in 2011 and $1.5m in 2012. They have 4 years in which to pay the money (2014/2015/2016/2017). I know that the Jets paid back $4.5m this year. Some teams paid back $1.125m this year so it looks that they intend to pay back the money in 4 equal payments. I heard that most teams, if not all, borrowed cap space in 2011.
6.) Increase Brady’s 2014 cash intake from two million dollars in lieu of not having future salaries fully guaranteed.
7.) Carry-over any unused cap space into 2015

After the Logan Mankins trade it was widely reported that the Patriots had over $14 million in cap space. What has happened since the Mankins trade that has used up close to $4.5 million in cap space.

1.) Paying for the 10-man practice squad – minimum of $1.7 million – Occurred on 9/4
2.) Accounting for Brian Tyms – 400K – Occurred on 9/4
3.) Paying for the 4 players who are already on IR – $1.212 million – Occurred on 9/4
4.) Paying for players 52 and 53 – 840K – Occurred on 9/4
5.) Reaching injury settlements with Steve Beauharnais and Armon Armstead – Steve Beauharnais reached a two-week injury settlement with the Patriots. The amount of $37,412 is now counting against the Patriots 2014 cap. ESPNBoston.Com’s Mike Reiss reported on September 14, 2014 that Armon Armstead and the New England Patriots reached an injury settlement in the amount of $54,000.

For this exercise I have included Matt Slater, Nate Ebner, and Chris White as special teamers.

For the sake of comparison the below numbers do NOT include dead money hits. That is, Aaron Hernandez’s $7,532,800 cap hit is not included in the tight end numbers, for example.

Position Number Total Percentage of Patriots’ Total Adjusted Cap Number
Centers 2 $2,164,250 1.56%
Guards 2 $4,578,334 3.29%
Offensive Tackles 5 $8,126,543 5.84%
Quarterbacks 2 $15,433,436 11.09%
Running Backs 5 $3,704,879 2.66%
Tight Ends 3 7,296,250 5.24%
Wide Receivers 6 10,975,537 7.89%
Cornerbacks 6 $14,999,981 10.78%
Defensive Ends 4 $6,033,089 4.34%
Defensive Tackles 5 $9,571,251 6.88%
Linebackers 4 $10,743,819 7.72%
Safeties 6 $9,028,385 6.49%
Special Teams 5 7,852,168 5.64%
Dead Money $16,240,274 11.67%
Cap Space $10,069,855 7.24%
Totals 55 139,109,051 100.00%

The next table breaks down cap hits by age. The age of the player is as of September 9, 2014.

Age Number Total Percentage of Patriots Total Adjusted Cap Number
22 4 2,975,772 2.14%
23 5 3,116,541 2.24%
24 13 10,826,422 7.78%
25 9 10,633,166 7.64%
26 7 6,993,480 5.03%
27 3 8,155,000 5.86%
28 5 19,862,500 14.28%
29 2 9,266,668 6.66%
30 4 13,114,706 9.43%
32 2 10,766,667 7.74%
37 1 14,800,000 10.64%
Dead Money 52 $16,240,274 11.67%
Cap Space $10,069,855 7.22%
Injured Reserve 4 $1,217,000 0.87%
Practice Squad 10 $1,071,000 0.77%
Totals 90 139,109,051 100.00%

The final table breakdowns the cap allocated to the different units on the Patriots.

Unit Number Total Percentage of Patriots Total Adjusted Cap Number
Defensive Line 9 $15,604,340 11.22%
Defensive Skill 16 $34,722,185 25.00%
Offensive Line 9 $14,869,127 10.69%
Offensive Skill 16 $37,413,102 26.89%
Special Teams 5 $7,852,1688 5.64%
Dead Money $16,240,274 11.69%
Injured Reserve 4 $1,217,000 0.87%
Practice Squad 10 $1,071,000 0.77%
Cap Space 10,069,855 7.24%
Totals 90 139,109,051 100.00%


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