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Crafting a 2015 free agent deal between Devin McCourty and the New England Patriots

It was reported/rumored during the first week in June that the Patriots and Devin McCourty had started talks about extending his contract which is due to expire after the 2014 season. It seems appropriate to now look at his comparables and propose a contract that I consider fair to both him and the Patriots. Please note that I consider McCourty to be an elite safety.

Updated on December 27th to remove 2014 extension proposals and to provide more 2015 deals

Background information: Devin was the 1st round pick of the Patriots in 2010. Devin was drafted as a cornerback and was permanently switched to safety during the 2012 season. Top cornerbacks are paid higher than top safeties. For example, the franchise tag figure for cornerbacks this year was $10.081 million while the franchise tag for safeties was $7.253 million. Earl Thomas who is the highest paid safety averages 10 million cap hit in his deal. There are four cornerbacks with a higher average. Devin had earned enough escalators in his rookie contract to increase his 2014 salary by $3,050,000 to $3,920,000. His 2014 cap number is $5,115,000. Devin McCourty who will be 27 when the 2014 starts was selected to the Associated Press’s All-Pro 2nd team in 2013. There have been four recent rankings of the NFL’s Top 100 players. They were done by Pro Football Focus, CBS Sportsline’s Pete Prisco, CBS Sportsline’s Pat Kirwan, and NFL players as tabulated by NFL Network.

Player Pro Football Focus Pete Prisco Pat Kirwan NFL Players
Earl Thomas 20 10 12 17
Eric Berry 37 54 33 50
Kam Chancellor 28 73 72 65
Troy Polamalu 95 99 100 61
Eric Weddle 96 34 92
T.J. Ward 100 76
Devin McCourty 22 62
Jarius Byrd 71 37
Antrell Rolle 72

Now let’s look at some financial comparables. Jarius Byrd is 10 months older than McCourty and played under the franchise tag ($6.916 million) in 2013. Byrd’s contract contains $26.3 million in guarantees, a record for a veteran safety deal. His 2014 salary is fully guaranteed. His 2015 roster bonus became fully guaranteed in late March. 6 million of his 2016 salary is now guaranteed for injury. Will become fully guaranteed the 3rd day of the 2016 League Year.

Jarius Byrd
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
2014 $1,300,000 $2,200,000 $6,000,000 $100,000 $3,500,000 $18,300,000 ($14,800,000)
2015 $2,000,000 $2,200,000 $0 $0 $10,300,000 $14,800,000 ($4,500,000)
2016 $7,400,000 $2,200,000 $0 $100,000 $9,700,000 $6,600,000 $3,100,000
2017 $7,900,000 $2,200,000 $300,000 $100,000 $10,500,000 $4,400,000 $6,100,000
2018 $8,400,000 $2,200,000 $300,000 $100,000 $11,000,000 $2,200,000 $8,800,000
2019 $8,600,000 $0 $300,000 $100,000 $9,000,000 $0 $9,000,000

Earl Thomas was also drafted in the first round in 2010. Thomas was selected in 2011 to the Associated Press Second-team All-Pro In 2012 and in 2013 Earl Thomas was selected to the Associated Press’ All-Pro first team, Sporting News’ All Pro team, and the Pro Football Writers of America’s All-Pro team. Earl Thomas is a year and 9 months younger than McCourty. His 2014 and 2015 salaries are fully guaranteed. 6 million of his 2016 salary is guaranteed. Do not know if the 2016 guarantee is currently full or guaranteed for injury now and then become fully guaranteed later.

Earl Thomas
Year Base Salary 2014 Prorated Bonus 2010 Signing Bonus Proration 2011 Salary Advance Proration Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
2014 $4,750,000 $1,900,000 $100,000 $648,212 $7,373,212 $14,225,000 ($6,851,788)
2015 $5,500,000 $1,900,000 $0 $0 $7,400,000 $12,100,000 ($4,700,000)
2016 $8,000,000 $1,900,000 $0 $0 $9,900,000 $5,700,000 $4,200,000
2017 $8,500,000 $1,900,000 $0 $0 $10,400,000 $3,800,000 $6,600,000
2018 $8,500,000 $1,900,000 $0 $0 $10,400,000 $1,900,000 $8,500,000

Eric Weddle, a member of the 2013 Associated Press’ All Pro 2nd team, signed his current 5 year $40 million deal in 2011. Kam Chancellor, yet another member of the AP All Pro 2nd team, signed a four-year, $28 million extension in April, 2013. Antrell Rolle, one more member of the AP All-Pro 2nd team, signed a five year, $37 million deal with the Giants in 2010 when he was 27. Dashon Goldson signed his 5-year, $41.5 million deal in March, 2013. William Moore signed his 5-year, $30 million deal in March, 2013. Michael Griffin signed his 5-year, $35 million deal in June of 2012. This offseason six safeties got deals that averaged over 5 million a year. Mike Mitchell who will turn 27 in June received a 5-year $25 million deal. Reshad Jones who is 26 years old got a 5yr $29.3m deal from the Dolphins. Antoine Bethea got a 4yr, 22m deal from the 49ers. Donte Whitner signed a four year, $28 million contract with the Browns on March 11, 2014.
T.J. Ward got a four-year, $22.5 million contract from the Broncos. T.J. received a $5 million signing bonus. His 2014 salary is fully guaranteed. His 2015 salary and roster bonus are currently guaranteed for injury only. Will become fully guaranteed the 5th day of the 2015 League Year.

T.J. Ward
Year Base Salary 2014 Signing Bonus Proration Roster Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
2014 $2,000,000 $1,250,000 $0 $3,250,000 $13,500,000 ($10,250,000)
2015 $4,000,000 $1,250,000 $2,000,000 $6,250,000 $9,750,000 ($3,000,000)
2016 $4,500,000 $1,250,000 $0 $5,750,000 $2,500,000 $3,250,000
2017 $4,500,000 $1,250,000 $0 $5,750,000 $1,250,000 $4,500,000

Eric Weddle received a $13 million signing bonus. His 2011 and 2012 salaries were fully guaranteed.

Eric Weddle
Year Base Salary 2011 Signing Bonus Proration Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings
2011 $1,000,000 $2,600,000 $3,600,000 $19,000,000 ($15,400,000)
2012 $5,000,000 $2,600,000 $7,600,000 $15,400,000 ($7,800,000)
2013 $6,000,000 $2,600,000 $8,600,000 $7,800,000 $200,000
2014 $7,500,000 $2,600,000 $10,100,000 $5,200,000 $5,900,000
2015 $7,500,000 $2,600,000 $10,100,000 $2,600,000 $7,500,000

On October 12th, 2014 CBS Sportline’s Jason LaCanfora reported that the percentage that will be used to determine the franchise tag number for safeties will be 6.713%. The below table lists the possible franchise tag numbers for McCourty if the league cap is between $140 million and $144 million.

League Cap Safety Franchise Tag Number
$140,000,000 $9,398,000
$141,000,000 $9,465,000
$142,000,000 $9,532,000
$143,000,000 $9,600,000
$144,000,000 $9,667,000

If the 2015 cap is $142 million and if McCourty is tagged again in 2016, McCourty’s 2016 cap number would be $11.438 million, a 20% increase over his 2015 projected franchise tag number of $9.532 million. If tagged two straight seasons, McCourty will have garnered in cash close to $21 million over 2 years (2015/2016). Therefore, it seems reasonable to venture that a McCourty deal in the $8 to $9 million per year average range would be fair for both sides, would recognize that McCourty sacrificed dollars in his move from the cornerback position to the safety position and would also recognize that McCourty has assumed all of the injury risk. The 2015 and 2016 salaries would be fully guaranteed. 3 million of his 2017 salary would be guaranteed for injury when the deal is reached in 2015 but would become fully guaranteed if McCourty is on the 53-man roster at the end of the 2016 season. McCourty would receive a $10 million signing bonus. This deal averages 8M in value over the 5-year period and would tie Eric Weddle for the 5th best safety deal.

Devin McCourty -$8M APY
Year Base Salary 2015 Signing Bonus Proration Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2015 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $16,000,000 ($12,000,000) $12,000,000 $12,000,000
2016 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $6,000,000 $12,000,000 ($6,000,000) $4,000,000 $16,000,000
2017 $6,000,000 $2,000,000 $9,000,000 $9,000,000 0 $6,000,000 $22,000,000
2018 $8,000,000 $2,000,000 $10,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $30,000,000
2019 $10,000,000 $2,000,000 $12,000,000 $2,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $40,000,000

This next deal averages $8.5 million over a 5-year period and would make McCourty the 3rd highest paid safety. The 2015 and 2016 salaries would be fully guaranteed. 3 million of his 2017 salary would be guaranteed for injury when the deal is reached in 2015 but would become fully guaranteed if McCourty is on the 53-man roster at the end of the 2016 season. McCourty would receive a $11 million signing bonus.

Devin McCourty -$8.5M APY
Year Base Salary 2015 Signing Bonus Proration Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2015 $1,800,000 $2,200,000 $4,000,000 $17,100,000 ($13,100,000) $12,800,000 $12,800,000
2016 $4,300,000 $2,200,000 $6,500,000 $13,100,000 ($6,600,000) $4,300,000 $17,100,000
2017 $6,400,000 $2,200,000 $8,600,000 $9,600,000 ($1,000,000) $6,400,000 $23,500,000
2018 $8,600,000 $2,200,000 $10,800,000 $4,400,000 $6,400,000 $8,600,000 $32,100,000
2019 $10,400,000 $2,200,000 $12,600,000 $2,200,000 $10,400,000 $10,400,000 $42,500,000

This next deal averages $9 million over a 5-year period and would tie for Jarius Byrd for the 2nd highest paid safety. The 2015 and 2016 salaries would be fully guaranteed. 3 million of his 2017 salary would be guaranteed for injury when the deal is reached in 2015 but would become fully guaranteed if McCourty is on the 53-man roster at the end of the 2016 season. McCourty would receive a $12.5 million signing bonus.

Devin McCourty -$9M APY
Year Base Salary 2015 Signing Bonus Proration Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2015 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $4,500,000 $19,000,000 ($14,500,000) $14,500,000 $14,500,000
2016 $4,500,000 $2,500,000 $7,000,000 $14,500,000 ($7,500,000) $4,500,000 $19,000,000
2017 $7,000,000 $2,500,000 $9,500,000 $10,500,000 ($1,000,000) $7,000,000 $26,000,000
2018 $8,500,000 $2,500,000 $11,100,000 $5,000,000 $6,100,000 $8,500,000 $34,500,000
2019 $10,500,000 $2,500,000 $13,000,000 $2,500,000 $10,500,000 $10,500,000 $45,000,000

http://overthecap.com/freeagents.php?Position=S&Year=2015 lists the safeties who like McCourty will become a free agent after this season. As of now, Devin McCourty should be considered the best available free agent safety. The only projected free agent safety that I consider in McCourty’s class is Antrell Rolle, who is close to 4 1/2 years older than McCourty.

http://overthecap.com/top-player-salaries.php?Position=S
lists the APYs for safeties.

A deal with a 4M APY would make McCourty the 24th highest paid safety.
5M APY would tie McCourty for 20th
6M APY would tie McCourty for 14th
7M APY would tie McCourty for 9th
7.5M APY would make McCourty the 6th highest paid safety
8M APY would tie McCourty for 5th
8.5M APY would make McCourty the 3rd highest paid safety
9M APY would tie McCourty for 2nd
9.5M APY would make McCourty the 2nd highest paid safety
10M would tie McCourty for 1st
>10M would make McCourty the highest paid safety

Danny Amendola’s 2015 Salary Cap Scenarios

As of December 26, Danny Amendola’s 2015 cap number is $5,700,000 which consists of 4 million salary, $1.2 million in signing bonus proration, and $500,000 ($31,250 per 46-man active roster appearance) roster bonus. Danny Amendola also has $500,000 in NTLBE incentives tied to receptions. Do not know the exact trigger level but presume that the lowest level is 64 since his career high is 63 receptions.

Cut or Trade Danny Amendola before June 2:

Amendola’s 2015 cap number would then decrease from $5.7 million to $3.6 million – the rest of his signing bonus proration for a gross cap savings of $2.1 million. Since a player with a $510,000 salary would then take his place in the Top 51 list, the the net cap savings for the Patriots would be $1,590,000 ($2.1 million minus $510,000).
Amendola’s 2016 cap number would go from $6.7 million to zero.
Amendola’s 2017 cap number would go from $7.7 million to zero.

Cut Danny Amendola before June 2 and make him a post June 1 designation:

That means the Pats would carry his $4 million salary and his $500,000 roster bonus on their books until June 2nd. On June 2nd he would be released. His 2015 cap number would then drop from $5.7 million to $1.2 million ($1.2 million signing bonus proration) – gross cap savings in 2015 of $4.5 million, net cap savings of $3,990,000.
His 2016 cap number would go from $6.7 million to $2.4 million.
His 2017 cap number would go from $7.7 million to zero.

Cut or Trade Danny Amendola after June 1:

His 2015 cap number would then drop from $5.7 million to $1.2 million ($1.2 million signing bonus proration) – gross cap savings in 2015 of $4.5 million, net cap savings of $3,990,000.
His 2016 cap number would go from $6.7 million to $2.4 million.
His 2017 cap number would go from $7.575 million to zero.

Lower’s Danny Amendola’s salary from $4 million to $1.9 million:
This would lower his 2015 cap number from $5.7 million to $3.6 million for a cap savings of $2.1 million. The $3.6 million cap hit with him on the 53-man roster would be the same as releasing him before June 2nd.

LTBE bonuses count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned, NLTBE bonuses do not. At the end of the season, the NFL calculates how much each team had set aside for LTBEs that weren’t earned – or said differently, it figures out how much was charged to the team’s cap that was not actually spent. Similarly, the NFL calculates the amount of incentives designated NLTBE that were actually earned. If the unearned LTBEs are greater than the earned NLTBEs, then the following year’s salary cap for that team is increased by the net amount. Similarly, if the earned NLTBEs exceed the unearned LTBEs, then the team’s cap for the following year is lowered by that amount. You can see an example of the effect of cap adjustments at USA Today. The teams with negative cap adjustments had most likely earned more NLTBE incentives in 2013 than they did not earn LTBE incentives.

In 2014 the Patriots received a credit of $2,002,250 toward their 2014 cap number because of the LTBE/NTLBE calculation. The 2014 Patriots adjusted cap of $139,109,051 consists of $133,000,000 (League Cap) + $2,002,250 (LTBE/NLTBE adjustment) + $4,106,081 (rollover amount from 2013 season).

LTBE Incentives ($7,473,750 total)

  • Matthew Slater has a 300K LTBE Pro Bowl incentive _ Earned
  • Vince Wilfork’s weight bonus – $300,000.
  • Vince Wilfork’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 1.
  • Brandon Browner’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 5
  • Rob Ninkovich’s playing time incentive – $250,000 if he plays in at least 75% of the defensive snaps in 2014. Ninkovich played in 95.5% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Ninkovich has played in 95.1% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui’s playing time incentive – $400,000. Hoomananawanui played in 57.5% of the offensive snaps in 2013. Hoomanawanui has played in 41.4% of the offensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Sebastian Vollmer’s 70% playing-time incentive- $1,000,000. In November the Patriots and Sebastian Vollmer agreed to lower the playing-time levels needed to earn incentives. Quoting the CBA – Any new or altered incentive bonuses renegotiated in a preexisting contract after the start of the regular season in which they may be earned automatically will be deemed “likely to be earned” during that season”. Therefore, this incentive is considered LTBE not because Vollmer made the incentive in 2013 but because the incentive was changed during the 2014 regular season.

46-man per-game roster bonuses – As of December 26, 9:00 AM, the Patriots have $4,223,750 in 46-man active roster bonuses that are now counting against their 2014 cap.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 per active game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $1,200,000 ($150,000*8). Browner has been active for nine games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $350,000 ($87,500*4). Wilfork has already reached this incentive since he has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Darrelle Revis had a $33,333 per game roster bonus that maxes at $500,000 (15 games). Revis played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000. Revis has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $375,000 ($31,250*12). Amendola has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Julian Edelman has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Edelman played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000 ($31,250*16). Edelman has been active for 14 games this year.
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $187,500 ($31,250*6). Mayo has already reached this incentive since he had been active for 6 games this year.
  • Rob Ninkovich has a $15,625 per game roster bonus. Ninkovich played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $250,000 ($15,625*16). Ninkovich has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $180,000 ($15,000*12). Chung has been active for all 15 games this year
  • Brandon Lafell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Lafell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Lafell has been active for all 15 possible games this year.
  • Ryan Wendell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Wendell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Wendell has been active for 13 games this year.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $81,250 ($6,250 *13). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 15 games this year

NLTBE Incentives ($9,466,250 total)

  • Rob Ninkovich has a 200K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive – Not Earned
  • Kyle Arrington has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive – Not Earned – Like to thank the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin for reminding me of this incentive.
  • Sebastian Vollmer has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive – Not Earned
  • Jerod Mayo has a 300K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive- Not Earned
  • Stephen Gostkowski has a 50,000 NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive – Earned. Like to thank Field Yates to bringing the Ghost’s Pro Bowl incentive to the attention of Patriots nation.
  • Sebastian Vollmer’s playing time incentive – another $1 million if he plays in 80% of the offensive snaps. Vollmer has placed in 94.5% of the offensive snaps this year. – Earned
  • Vince Wilfork’s Playing-time incentives:
    • If he plays 50 percent of the defensive snaps: $500,000 – Earned
    • If he plays 60 percent of the defensive snaps: $1.25 million- Earned
    • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps: $2 million
    • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team makes the divisional round of the playoffs, he makes $2.5 million
    • If Wilfork plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team is top 10 in points allowed, he earns $500,000

    Vince Wilfork has played in 74.2% of the defensive snaps this year. Patriots are 8th in points allowed.

  • Brandon Browner can earn up to $1.25 million in playing-time incentives. Do not know the trigger levels at this time.Brandon Browner played in 43.5% of the snaps in 2013. He has played in 55.5% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014
  • Danny Amendola has a $500,000 NLTBE incentive that is tied to receptions. Do not know the exact trigger levels at this time but presume that the trigger level is no less than 64 receptions since that is the number of catches Amendola had with the Rams in 2012. Like to thank the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin for informing me of this incentive.Danny Amendola has had 23
    receptions so far in 2014 – Unearned.
  • Julian Edelman has a $500,000 NTLBE incentive that can be earned in one of the following four ways:
    1. 1,057 receiving yards
    2. 70 receptions plus seven TDs
    3. 80 receptions plus 13 wins
    4. 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance

    After 15 games, Julian has 92 receptions totaling 972 yards. He has 4 receiving touchdowns and the Patriots have won twelve games.

Per the CBA, “Any roster bonus which is deemed not “likely to be earned” based upon the player’s performance during the prior year shall immediately be included in Team Salary when earned” so as the below players play in more games in 2014 than they did in 2013 the Patriots will lose cap space in the amount of the 46-man active roster bonus. Example – Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013. He has played in 15 games in 2014. The Patriots have lost $962,500 ($87,500 *11) in cap space so far this season.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $300,000 ($150,000*2). Browner has been been active for 9 games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 46-man active per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $1,050,000 ($87,500*12). Wilfork has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $125,000 ($31,250*4). Amendola has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $60,000 ($15,000*4). Chung has been active for all 15 games this year
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $18,750 ($6,250*3). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 15 games this year
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $312,500 ($31,250 * 10). Mayo was active for 6 games this year.
Amount Event Likelihood
$200,000 Ninkovich making the Pro Bowl Not Earned
$250,000 Arrington making the Pro Bowl Not Earned
$250,000 Vollmer making the Pro Bowl Not Earned
$300,000 Mayo making the Pro Bowl Not Earned
$1,000,000 Vollmer exceeding 80% playing time Earned
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 50% playing time Earned
$750,000 Wilfork exceeding 60% playing time Earned
$750,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time Probable
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots making to the divisional round Probable
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots finishing in Top 10 in Points allowed Probable
$1,250,000 Browner’s exceeding playing-time incentives Possible
$500,000 Amendola’s receptions incentive Not Earned
$500,000 Edelman has four different ways to earn this incentive.
1.) 1,057 receiving yards
2.) 70 receptions plus seven TDs
3.) 80 receptions plus 13 wins
4.) 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance
Probable
$962,500 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for more than 4 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$96,750 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for more than 12 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$45,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for more than 12 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$87,500 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Probable
$31,250 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Possible
$15,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Probable
$150,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 10 games. Probable
$6,250 Hoomanawanui being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Probable
$312,500 Mayo being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Not Earned
$300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 12 games. Not Earned
Not Earned $2,112,500
Possible Total $1,250,000
Probable Total $2,540,000
Earned Total $3,563,750
NLTBE Incentive Total $9,466,250

As far as I know, the Patriots will not be credited with any unreached LTBE incentives (Wendell’s being inactive for two games, for example) in 2014. What will happened is that any unreached LTBE incentives will be used to offset NLTBE incentives that were actually earned by other players at the end of the year and there will be an adjustment made to the Patriots 2014 rollover amount

After Week 16 projection
Negative means that the player reached a NLTBE incentive
Positive means that the player did not earned a LTBE incentive

  • Edelman’s receptions (-$500,000)
  • Gostkowski’s Pro Bowl bonus (-$50,000)

  • Wilfork’s playing more than 70% (- $2,000,000)
  • Wilfork playing more than 70% of the defensive snaps AND the Patriots make it to the divisional round (-$500,000)
  • Wilfork playing more than 70% of the defensive snaps and the Patriots defense finishing in the Top 10 in points allowed (-$500,000)
  • Vollmer’s playing-time incentive (- $1,000,000)
  • Wendell’s per-game roster bonus ($25,000)
  • Edelman’s per-game roster bonus ($31,250)
  • Hoomanawanui’s playing-time incentive ($400,000)
  • Totals (-$4,093,750) I project that the Patriots will end the 2014 regular season with $4,629,472 in cap space. The $4,093,750 LTBE/NLTBE adjustment million will be subtracted from that resulting in a previous year carryover amount of $535,722.

New England Patriots CAP-sized thoughts – End of 2014 Regular Season Edition

  1. Wilfork will achieve a $2 million NLTBE incentive by playing in more than 70% of the defensive snaps. Currently at 74%. If I were Wilfork, I would play at least 20 snaps against the Bills to ensure reaching the 70% threshold. If Wilfork plays in at least 70% of the defensive snaps AND the Patriots make it to the divisional round of the playoffs, Vince will earn another $500,000. If Wilfork plays in at least 70% of the defensive snaps AND the Patriots defense finish in the Top 10 in points allowed, Vince will earn another $500,000. The Pats are currently 8th.
  2. Edelman has four different ways to earn one $500,000 NLTBE incentive.
    1. Pats win 13 games
    2. Pats get to the Super Bowl
    3. Edelman catches 3 TDs against the Bills
    4. Edelman has 85 receiving yards against the Bills
  3. The NFLPA has changed its salary cap space link. It is now found at https://nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report.
  4. On Sunday December 28 the Patriots will lose $290,000 in cap space if Vince Wilfork, Danny Amendola, Brandon Browner, Michael Hoomanawanui, and Patrick Chung are on the 46-man active roster.
  5. In an interview with Gary Tangauy and Andy Gresh earlier this year Jonathan Kraft mentioned the need to account for incentives was one major reason for the Patriots having so much cap space. I talked about incentives in great detail in this blog post http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=766
  6. With the new CBA there is a cash spending requirement. Teams are required to spend 89% of the total cap for the four years (2013/2014/2015/2016). Last year the cap was $123 million. Patriots spent in cash about $129,656,000 or about 105%. Source – http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/10586646/new-england-patriots-spent-free-agents-not-wisely
    This year the cap is $133 million. According to my numbers the Patriots have spent about 100 million in 2014. They may spend another 3 to 6 million depending on how many NTLBE incentives are reached. 100 million is 75% of $133 million. The total cap amount for the 2013 and 2014 years is $256,000,000. The Patriots have spent in cash so far in 2013 and in 2014 $229,656,000 or about 89.7%.
  7. FYI – Brady’s 2015 cap hit is $13 million. If traded between now and 6/2/2015 his 2015 cap hit increases to $18 million. If he is on the Patriots Week 17 roster, his future salaries ($24 million worth) become fully guaranteed and without any offsets. So if cut during the 2015 season his cap hit would be $42 million (18 +24)
  8. There is this notion that the Patriots’ high amount of dead money prevented them spending cash this year. Do not see a strong correlation between the two at http://overthecap.com/cash-spending and http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space. Example – The Browns have about 2 million more in dead money than do the Patriots and yet have to manage to spend $40 million more this year.
  9. The Patriots have been among the league leaders in cash spending in even-numbered years. It appears that 2014 will end that trend.
  10. I have been covering the cap since 2001. Have never seen an correlation between cash spending and winning games.
  11. I have been covering the cap since 2001. Have never seen an correlation between cap space and winning games.
  12. Am hoping that someone reading this will be able to tell me the trigger levels for the playing-time incentives that Brandon Browner has for 2014 and Wendell has for 2015. We know that Wendell has $1.3 million in incentives. Right now, I am considering them NLTBE. If they are LTBE because Wendell is playing so many snaps in 2013, that would increase his 2015 cap number from $1.6 million to $2.9 million.
  13. I have to think that Brandon Lafell has incentives in his contract but they were not reported.
  14. As of today I have the Pats with over $147 million in cap commitments for the 2015 season. The current projected league cap is $142 million.
  15. Ryan Wendell and Michael Hoomanawanui’s 2015 cap numbers will be lower than their 2014 cap numbers because they did not reach LTBE incentives in 2014.
  16. The 2015 cap numbers for Danny Amendola, Vince Wilfork, Sebastian Vollmer, and Brandon Browner will be higher than their 2014 cap numbers because they reached NLTBE incentives in 2014.
  17. Provide comparables and propose several contracts for Darrelle Revis and the Patriots in this blog post.
  18. Provide comparables and propose a couple of contracts for Devin McCourty and the Patriots in this blog post.
  19. I project that the New England Patriots will receive a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2015. Please see this blog post for further details.
  20. Proven Performance Escalator (PPE) – As part of the new CBA there is a proven performance escalator for draft picks chosen in Round 3 through 7. Nate Ebner and Alfonzo Dennard are eligible for it in 2015. Chris Jones is eligible for it in 2016. Bryan Stork is eligible for it in 2017. An eligible player will qualify for the Proven Performance Escalator in his fourth League Year if: (1) he participated in a minimum of 35% of his Club’s offensive or defensive plays in any two of his previous three regular seasons; or (2) he participated in a “cumulative average” of at least 35% of his Club’s offensive or defensive plays over his previous three regular seasons. Alfonzo Dennard played in 53.3% of the defensive snaps in 2012 and 62.3% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Irregardless of what he does in 2014, Alfonzo Dennard has already reached the escalator so his 2015 cap number will increase from $674,462 to $1,517,462, an increase of $843,000. Chris Jones has played in enough snaps in 2013 and in 2014 to earn the PPE in 2017. Stork is well on his way to making 2014 count as a qualifying year.
  21. 4PM December 27 is a deadline for these three things
    • Clubs must provide the Management Council with written notice, signed by the individual club’s owner, indicating the amount, if any, of the club’s 2014 league year salary cap room to be credited to the club’s 2015 team salary.
    • Redo a player’s deal
    • To waive Tom Brady so that his future salaries are not guaranteed.

It was reported/rumored during the first week in August that the Patriots and Darrelle Revis had started talks about extending his contract which is due to expire after the 2015 season. It seems appropriate to now look at his comparables and propose a contract that I consider fair to both him and the Patriots. December 9, 2014  update -include JJ Watt and Gerald McCoy as comparables

Background information: Darrelle Revis will be 30 years old when the 2015 season starts. Revis has been selected to five Pro Bowl (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2013) and has earned three first-team All Pro honors (2009, 2010 and 2011). Revis was named AFC Defensive Player of the Year in 2009 after finishing the year with 72 total tackles and six interceptions.

When Darrelle Revis signed with the Patriots on March 12, it was widely reported to be an one-year $12 million deal. On March 13 ESPNBoston.Com’s Mike Reiss reported that “An important wrinkle has been learned about the contract Darrelle Revis has agreed to with the Patriots. It has widely been reported as a one-year, $12 million deal, which is accurate. Revis will earn $12 million this season. But for salary-cap accounting purposes, and to protect Revis from being assigned the franchise tag in 2015, the sides have added a second year to the pact in 2015 that would pay Revis $20 million and count $25 million against the salary cap. The $20 million is an astronomical figure, as is the $25 million cap charge. That makes it unlikely the Patriots would pay it, thus making Revis an unrestricted free agent in 2015 or one of the highest-paid players in football. The second year helps the Patriots spread out the salary-cap charges for Revis over two seasons instead of taking one $12 million salary-cap hit in 2014. Revis’ cap charge for 2014 is now $7 million.”

There have been four recent rankings of the NFL’s Top 100 players. They were done by Pro Football Focus, CBS Sportsline’s Pete Prisco, CBS Sportsline’s Pat Kirwan, and NFL players as tabulated by NFL Network. Revis ranked 18th, 28th, 21st, and 38th respectively.

Player Date of Birth Pro Football Focus Pete Prisco Pat Kirwan NFL Players
Darrelle Revis 7/14/1985 18 28 21 38
Richard Sherman 3/30/1988 6 11 13 7
Joe Haden 4/18/1989 75 33 28 39
Patrick Peterson 7/11/1990 58 8 7 22

Now let’s look at some financial comparables. Richard Sherman is almost 3 years younger than Revis. Sherman’s contract contains $40 million in guarantees. His 2014 salary is fully guaranteed. His 2015 salary will become fully guaranteed five days after the Super Bowl. All of his 2016 salary and 5 million of his 2017 salary will become fully guaranteed five days after the 2016 Super Bowl.

Richard Sherman
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2014 $1,431,000 $2,245,606 $0 $0 $3,676,606 $3,245,606 in 2014;$8,800,000 in 2015 0 $12,431,000 $12,431,000
2015 $10,000,000 $2,200,000 $0 $0 $12,200,000 $8,800,000 $3,400,000 $10,000,000 $22,431,000
2016 $12,569,000 $2,200,000 $0 $0 $14,769,000 $6,600,000 $8,169,000 $12,569,000 $35,000,000
2017 $11,431,000 $2,200,000 $0 $0 $13,631,000 $4,400,000 $9,231,000 $11,431,000 $46,431,000
2018 $11,000,000 $2,200,000 $0 $0 $13,000,000 $2,200,000 $10,800,000 $11,000,000 $57,431,000

Joe Haden is almost 4 years younger than Revis. Haden received over $45 million in guarantees, the most ever received by a cornerback. His 2014, 2015, and 2016 salaries are guaranteed. 4 million of his 2017 salary is guaranteed. Haden has a $100,000 incentive for making it to the Pro Bowl.

Joe Haden
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Pro Bowl Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2014 $6,678,193 $5,149,702 $100,000 $200,000 $12,127,895 $45,078,193 ($32,950,298) $22,978,193 $22,978,193
2015 $8,300,000 $3,200,000 $100,000 $100,000 $11,700,000 $35,200,000 ($23,500,000) $8,500,000 $31,478,193
2016 $10,100,000 $3,200,000 $100,000 $100,000 $13,500,000 $23,700,000 $(10,200,000) $10,300,000 $41,778,193
2017 $11,100,000 $3,200,000 $100,000 $100,000 $14,500,000 $10,400,000 $4,100,000 $11,300,000 $53,078,193
2018 $11,100,000 $3,200,000 $100,000 $100,000 $14,500,000 $6,400,000 $8,100,000 $11,300,000 $64,378,193
2019 $10,400,000 $0 $100,000 $100,000 $10,600,000 $0 $10,600,000 $10,600,000 $74,978,193

Patrick Peterson is almost 5 years younger than Revis. Peterson, like Richard Sherman, was named to the first All-Pro team in 2013. Peterson’s 2014 salary is fully guaranteed. His 2015 and 2016 salary are guaranteed for injury now and will become fully guaranteed the 5th day of that year’s waiver period.

Patrick Peterson
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Pro Bowl Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2014 $889,114 $6,048,195 $0 $0 $6,937,309 $6,937,309 in 2014, $12,289,509 in 2015 $0 $16,250,000 $16,250,000
2015 $11,619,000 $3,072,377 $0 $250,000 $14,941,377 $23,908,509 ($8,967,132) $11,869,000 $28,120,000
2016 $9,750,000 $3,072,377 $0 $250,000 $13,072,377 $18,967,132 ($5,894,754) $10,000,000 $38,120,000
2017 $9,750,000 $3,072,377 $0 $250,000 $13,072,377 $15,894,754 ($2,822,377) $10,000,000 $48,120,000
2018 $11,000,000 $3,072,377 $0 $250,000 $14,322,377 $3,072,377 $11,250,000 $11,250,000 $59,370,000
2019 $11,000,000 $0 $0 $250,000 $11,250,000 $0 $11,250,000 $11,250,000 $70,620,000
2020 $12,050,000 $0 $250,000 $250,000 $12,550,000 $0 $12,550,000 $12,550,000 $83,170,000

J.J. Watt is currently the highest paid defender in the NFL. J.J. Watt is almost 4 years younger than Revis. Watt was named the AP Defensive Player of the Year in 2012. Watt was named to the Pro Bowl and the first team AP All-Pro teams in 2012 and 2013. His 2014 and 2015 salaries are fully guaranteed. His 2015 and 2016 salary are guaranteed for injury now and will become fully guaranteed the 5th day of that year’s waiver period.

J.J. Watt
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2014 $907,385 $3,668,182 $0 $0 $4,575,567 $22,544,567 $0 $10,907,385 $10,907,385
2015 $9,969,000 $2,000,000 $10,000,000 $0 $21,969,000 $17,969,000 $4,000,000 $19,969,000 $30,876,385
2016 $10,500,000 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $12,500,000 $6,000,000 $6,500,000 $10,500,000 $41,376,385
2017 $10,500,000 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $12,500,000 $4,000,000 $8,500,000 $10,500,000 $51,876,385
2018 $11,000,000 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $13,000,000 $2,000,000 $11,000,000 $11,000,000 $62,876,385
2019 $13,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $13,000,000 $0 $13,000,000 $13,000,000 $75,876,385
2020 $15,500,000 $0 $0 $0 $15,500,000 $0 $15,500,000 $15,500,000 $91,376,385
2021 $17,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $17,000,000 $0 $17,000,000 $17,000,000 $108,386,385

Gerald McCoy is currently the 2nd highest paid defender in the NFL. Gerald McCoy is almost 2 1/2 years younger than Revis.  McCoy was named to the Pro Bowl in 2012 and in 2013 and to the first team AP All-Pro team in 2013. His 2014 and 2015 salaries are fully guaranteed.  These details about Gerald McCoy’s contract come from this Joel Corry report. McCoy’s $5 million 2015 base salary, $6 million 2016 base salary and $6.5 million third day of the 2015 league year roster bonus become fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2015 waiver period (February 4). McCoy’s $6.5 million fourth day of the 2016 league year roster bonus and $12,742,692 of his $13.25 million 2017 base salary are fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2016 league year.

Gerald McCoy
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2014 $17,500,000 $3,095,000 $0 $300,000 $20,895,000 $22,544,567 $0 $20,300,000 $20,300,000
2015 $5,000,000 $3,095,000 $6,500,000 $0 $14,595,000 $2,000,000 $12,595,000 $11,500,000 $31,800,000
2016 $6,000,000 $500,000 $6,500,000 $0 $13,000,000 $1,500,000 $11,500,000 $12,500,000 $44,300,000
2017 $13,250,000 $500,000 $0 $0 $13,750,000 $1,000,000 $12,750,000 $13,200,000 $57,500,000
2018 $12,250,000 $500,000 $0 $0 $12,750,000 $500,000 $12,250,000 $12,250,000 $69,750,000
2019 $13,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $13,000,000 $0 $13,000,000 $13,000,000 $82,750,000
2020 $10,000,000 $0 $2,500,000 $0 $12,500,000 $0 $12,500,000 $12,500,000 $95,250,000
2021 $10,432,253 $0 $2,500,000 $0 $12,932,253 $0 $12,932,253 $12,932,253 $108,182,253

Therefore, it seems reasonable to venture that a Revis extension in the $12 to $14 million per year average range would be fair for both sides and would recognize that Revis, while he may be better than Sherman, Haden, and Peterson, is also older than the aforementioned trio. An extension will lower Revis’ 2015 $25 million cap number. Here is one example how:

Extend Revis through the 2017 season.
Give him a $14.25 million signing bonus which would be prorated over 3 years (2015/2016/2017)
Lower his salary from $7,000,000 to $1,000,000.
Eliminate the $12.5 million roster bonus
2015 Current cap number of $25,000,000 consists of:
$7,500,000 salary
$5,000,000 signing bonus proration
$12,500,000 roster bonus paid on 4/1/2015
$500,000 46-man active roster bonus

Proposed 2015 cap number of $11,250,000 consists of:
$1,000,000 salary (fully guaranteed)
$5,000,000 existing bonus proration
$4,750,000 new signing bonus proration
$500,000 46-man active roster bonus

Proposed 2016 cap number of $14,750,000 consists of:
$9,500,000 salary (5.25 million guaranteed for injury now; becomes fully guaranteed the 5th day after the 2016 Super Bowl)
$4,750,000 new signing bonus proration
$500,000 46-man active roster bonus

Proposed 2017 cap number of $14,750,000 consists of:
$9,500,000 salary
$4,750,000 signing bonus proration
$500,000 46-man active roster bonus

This deal averages 12 million per year in new money over the three extended years. That 12M APY would give Revis the 4th highest APY for a cornerback and more cash in Years 1, 2 and 3 than will Richard Sherman receive in his extension.

Darrelle Revis – 12M APY
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2014 $1,500,000 $5,000,000 $500,000 $0 $7,000,000 $6,500,000 $5,000 $12,000,000 $12,000,000
2015 $1,000,000 $9,750,000 $500,000 $0 $11,250,000 $15,250,000 ($4,000,000) $15,750,000 $27,750,000
2016 $9,500,000 $4,750,000 $500,000 $0 $14,750,000 $14,750,000 $0 $10,000,000 $37,750,000
2017 $9,750,000 $4,750,000 $500,000 $0 $14,750,000 $4,750,000 $10,250,000 $10,250,000 $48,000,000

This next deal averages 13 million per year in new money over the three extended years. That 13M APY would give Revis the 4th highest APY for a cornerback and more cash in Years 1, 2 and 3 ($39 million) than will the trio received ($38,315,000) in their extensions. The 2015 salary will be fully guaranteed. $5.25 million of his 2016 salary will be guaranteed for injury now and will become fully guaranteed the 5th day after the 2016 Super Bowl)

Darrelle Revis – 13M APY
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2014 $1,500,000 $5,000,000 $500,000 $0 $7,000,000 $6,500,000 $5,000 $12,000,000 $12,000,000
2015 $4,000,000 $9,750,000 $500,000 $0 $14,250,000 $18,250,000 ($4,000,000) $18,750,000 $30,750,000
2016 $9,500,000 $4,750,000 $500,000 $0 $14,750,000 $14,750,000 $0 $10,000,000 $40,750,000
2017 $9,750,000 $4,750,000 $500,000 $0 $14,750,000 $4,750,000 $10,250,000 $10,250,000 $51,000,000

This next deal averages 14 million per year in new money over the three extended years. That 14M APY would tie Revis for the 2nd highest APY for a cornerback and more cash in Years 1, 2 and 3 than any other cornerback in NFL history. The 2015 salary will be fully guaranteed. $6.25 million of his 2016 salary will be guaranteed for injury now and will become fully guaranteed the 5th day after the 2016 Super Bowl) making it the same cap number to keep Revis on or off the Patriots roster.

Darrelle Revis – 14M APY
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2014 $1,500,000 $5,000,000 $500,000 $0 $7,000,000 $6,500,000 $5,000 $12,000,000 $12,000,000
2015 $4,000,000 $9,750,000 $500,000 $0 $14,250,000 $18,250,000 ($4,000,000) $18,750,000 $30,750,000
2016 $10,500,000 $4,750,000 $500,000 $0 $15,750,000 $15,750,000 $0 $11,000,000 $41,750,000
2017 $11,750,000 $4,750,000 $500,000 $0 $17,000,000 $4,750,000 $12,250,000 $12,250,000 $54,000,000

This next deal averages 15 million per year in new money over the three extended years. Revis would get a $15 million signing bonus. That 15M APY would give Revis the highest APY for a cornerback in the NFL The 2015 salary will be fully guaranteed. $6 million of his 2016 salary will be guaranteed for injury now and will become fully guaranteed the 5th day after the 2016 Super Bowl) making it the same cap number to keep Revis on or off the Patriots roster. Revis will end up earning as much cash ($57 million) in 4 years (2014 through 2017) as will Brady over 5 years (2013 through 2017).

Darrelle Revis – 15M APY
Year Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Workout Bonus Cap Number Dead Money Cap Savings Cash Received Total Cash Received
2014 $1,500,000 $5,000,000 $500,000 $0 $7,000,000 $6,500,000 $5,000 $12,000,000 $12,000,000
2015 $5,000,000 $10,000,000 $500,000 $0 $15,500,000 $20,000,000 ($5,000,000) $20,500,000 $32,500,000
2016 $10,500,000 $5,000,000 $500,000 $0 $16,000,000 $16,000,000 $0 $11,000,000 $43,500,000
2017 $13,000,000 $5,000,000 $500,000 $0 $18,500,000 $5,000,000 $13,500,000 $13,500,000 $57,000,000

http://overthecap.com/freeagents.php?Position=CB&Year=2015 lists the cornerbacks who will become free agents after this season. As of now, Revis should be considered the best available free agent cornerback. There is no one that I consider to be in Revis’ class.http://overthecap.com/top-player-salaries.php?Position=CB
lists the APYs for cornerbacks.A extension with a 12M APY would make Revis the 4th highest paid cornerback
12.5M APY would make Revis the 4th highest paid cornerback
13M APY would make Revis the 4th highest paid cornerback
13.5M APY would tie Revis for 3rd
14M APY would tie Revis for 2nd
14.01M APY would tie Revis for 1st

Tracking New England Patriots incentives after Week 16

LTBE bonuses count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned, NLTBE bonuses do not. At the end of the season, the NFL calculates how much each team had set aside for LTBEs that weren’t earned – or said differently, it figures out how much was charged to the team’s cap that was not actually spent. Similarly, the NFL calculates the amount of incentives designated NLTBE that were actually earned. If the unearned LTBEs are greater than the earned NLTBEs, then the following year’s salary cap for that team is increased by the net amount. Similarly, if the earned NLTBEs exceed the unearned LTBEs, then the team’s cap for the following year is lowered by that amount. You can see an example of the effect of cap adjustments at USA Today. The teams with negative cap adjustments had most likely earned more NLTBE incentives in 2013 than they did not earn LTBE incentives.

In 2014 the Patriots received a credit of $2,002,250 toward their 2014 cap number because of the LTBE/NTLBE calculation. The 2014 Patriots adjusted cap of $139,109,051 consists of $133,000,000 (League Cap) + $2,002,250 (LTBE/NLTBE adjustment) + $4,106,081 (rollover amount from 2013 season).

LTBE Incentives ($7,473,750 total)

  • Matthew Slater has a 300K LTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Vince Wilfork’s weight bonus – $300,000.
  • Vince Wilfork’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 1.
  • Brandon Browner’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 5
  • Rob Ninkovich’s playing time incentive – $250,000 if he plays in at least 75% of the defensive snaps in 2014. Ninkovich played in 95.5% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Ninkovich has played in 95.1% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui’s playing time incentive – $400,000. Hoomananawanui played in 57.5% of the offensive snaps in 2013. Hoomanawanui has played in 41.4% of the offensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Sebastian Vollmer’s 70% playing-time incentive- $1,000,000. In November the Patriots and Sebastian Vollmer agreed to lower the playing-time levels needed to earn incentives. Quoting the CBA – Any new or altered incentive bonuses renegotiated in a preexisting contract after the start of the regular season in which they may be earned automatically will be deemed “likely to be earned” during that season”. Therefore, this incentive is considered LTBE not because Vollmer made the incentive in 2013 but because the incentive was changed during the 2014 regular season.

46-man per-game roster bonuses – As of December 8, 9:00 AM, the Patriots have $4,223,750 in 46-man active roster bonuses that are now counting against their 2014 cap.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 per active game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $1,200,000 ($150,000*8). Browner has been active for nine games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $350,000 ($87,500*4). Wilfork has already reached this incentive since he has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Darrelle Revis had a $33,333 per game roster bonus that maxes at $500,000 (15 games). Revis played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000. Revis has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $375,000 ($31,250*12). Amendola has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Julian Edelman has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Edelman played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000 ($31,250*16). Edelman has been active for 14 games this year.
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $187,500 ($31,250*6). Mayo has already reached this incentive since he had been active for 6 games this year.
  • Rob Ninkovich has a $15,625 per game roster bonus. Ninkovich played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $250,000 ($15,625*16). Ninkovich has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $180,000 ($15,000*12). Chung has been active for all 15 games this year
  • Brandon Lafell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Lafell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Lafell has been active for all 15 possible games this year.
  • Ryan Wendell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Wendell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Wendell has been active for 13 games this year.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $81,250 ($6,250 *13). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 15 games this year

NLTBE Incentives ($9,416,250 total)

  • Rob Ninkovich has a 200K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Kyle Arrington has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive – Like to thank the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin for reminding me of this incentive.
  • Sebastian Vollmer has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Jerod Mayo has a 300K NLTBE Pro Bowk incentive
  • Sebastian Vollmer’s playing time incentive – another $1 million if he plays in 80% of the offensive snaps. Vollmer has placed in 94.5% of the offensive snaps this year.
  • Vince Wilfork’s Playing-time incentives:
    • If he plays 50 percent of the defensive snaps: $500,000
    • If he plays 60 percent of the defensive snaps: $1.25 million
    • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps: $2 million
    • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team makes the divisional round of the playoffs, he makes $2.5 million
    • If Wilfork plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team is top 10 in points allowed, he earns $500,000

    Vince Wilfork has played in 74.2% of the defensive snaps this year. Patriots are 8th in points allowed.

  • Brandon Browner can earn up to $1.25 million in playing-time incentives. Do not know the trigger levels at this time.Brandon Browner played in 43.5% of the snaps in 2013. He has played in 55.5% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014
  • Danny Amendola has a $500,000 NLTBE incentive that is tied to receptions. Do not know the exact trigger levels at this time but presume that the trigger level is no less than 64 receptions since that is the number of catches Amendola had with the Rams in 2012. Like to thank the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin for informing me of this incentive.Danny Amendola has had 23
    receptions so far in 2014.
  • Julian Edelman has a $500,000 NTLBE incentive that can be earned in one of the following four ways:
    1. 1,057 receiving yards
    2. 70 receptions plus seven TDs
    3. 80 receptions plus 13 wins
    4. 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance

    After 15 games, Julian has 92 receptions totaling 972 yards. He has 4 receiving touchdowns and the Patriots have won twelve games.

Per the CBA, “Any roster bonus which is deemed not “likely to be earned” based upon the player’s performance during the prior year shall immediately be included in Team Salary when earned” so as the below players play in more games in 2014 than they did in 2013 the Patriots will lose cap space in the amount of the 46-man active roster bonus. Example – Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013. He has played in 15 games in 2014. The Patriots have lost $962,500 ($87,500 *11) in cap space so far this season.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $300,000 ($150,000*2). Browner has been been active for 9 games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 46-man active per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $1,050,000 ($87,500*12). Wilfork has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $125,000 ($31,250*4). Amendola has been active for all 15 games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $60,000 ($15,000*4). Chung has been active for all 15 games this year
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $18,750 ($6,250*3). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 15 games this year
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $312,500 ($31,250 * 10). Mayo was active for 6 games this year.
Amount Event Likelihood
$200,000 Ninkovich making the Pro Bowl Possible
$250,000 Arrington making the Pro Bowl Unlikely
$250,000 Vollmer making the Pro Bowl Possible
$300,000 Mayo making the Pro Bowl Impossible
$1,000,000 Vollmer exceeding 80% playing time Earned
$2,000,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time Probable
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots making to the divisional round Probable
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots finishing in Top 10 in Points allowed Probable
$1,250,000 Browner’s exceeding playing-time incentives Possible
$500,000 Amendola’s receptions incentive Impossible
$500,000 Edelman has four different ways to earn this incentive.
1.) 1,057 receiving yards
2.) 70 receptions plus seven TDs
3.) 80 receptions plus 13 wins
4.) 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance
Probable
$962,500 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for more than 4 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$96,750 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for more than 12 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$45,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for more than 12 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$87,500 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Probable
$31,250 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Possible
$15,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Probable
$150,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 10 games. Probable
$6,250 Hoomanawanui being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Probable
$312,500 Mayo being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Impossible
$300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 12 games. Impossible
Impossible $1,412,500
Unlikely Total $250,000
Possible Total $1,700,000
Probable Total $3,790,000
Earned Total $2,263,750
NLTBE Incentive Total $9,416,250

As far as I know, the Patriots will not be credited with any unreached LTBE incentives (Wendell’s being inactive for two games, for example) in 2014. What will happened is that any unreached LTBE incentives will be used to offset NLTBE incentives that were actually earned by other players at the end of the year and there will be an adjustment made to the Patriots 2014 rollover amount

After Week 16 projection
Negative means that the player reached a NLTBE incentive
Positive means that the player did not earned a LTBE incentive

  • Edelman’s receptions (-$500,000)
  • Wilfork’s playing more than 70% (- $2,000,000)
  • Wilfork playing more than 70% of the defensive snaps AND the Patriots make it to the divisional round (-$500,000)
  • Wilfork playing more than 70% of the defensive snaps and the Patriots defense finishing in the Top 10 in points allowed (-$500,000)
  • Vollmer’s playing-time incentive (- $1,000,000)
  • Wendell’s per-game roster bonus ($25,000)
  • Edelman’s per-game roster bonus ($31,250)
  • Hoomanawanui’s playing-time incentive ($400,000)
  • Totals (-$4,043,750) I project that the Patriots will end the 2014 regular season with $4,629,472 in cap space. The $4,043,750 LTBE/NLTBE adjustment million will be subtracted from that resulting in a previous year carryover amount of $585,722.

Tracking New England Patriots incentives after Week 15

LTBE bonuses count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned, NLTBE bonuses do not. At the end of the season, the NFL calculates how much each team had set aside for LTBEs that weren’t earned – or said differently, it figures out how much was charged to the team’s cap that was not actually spent. Similarly, the NFL calculates the amount of incentives designated NLTBE that were actually earned. If the unearned LTBEs are greater than the earned NLTBEs, then the following year’s salary cap for that team is increased by the net amount. Similarly, if the earned NLTBEs exceed the unearned LTBEs, then the team’s cap for the following year is lowered by that amount. You can see an example of the effect of cap adjustments at USA Today. The teams with negative cap adjustments had most likely earned more NLTBE incentives in 2013 than they did not earn LTBE incentives.

In 2014 the Patriots received a credit of $2,002,250 toward their 2014 cap number because of the LTBE/NTLBE calculation. The 2014 Patriots adjusted cap of $139,109,051 consists of $133,000,000 (League Cap) + $2,002,250 (LTBE/NLTBE adjustment) + $4,106,081 (rollover amount from 2013 season.

LTBE Incentives ($7,473,750 total)

  • Matthew Slater has a 300K LTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Vince Wilfork’s weight bonus – $300,000.
  • Vince Wilfork’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 1.
  • Brandon Browner’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 5
  • Rob Ninkovich’s playing time incentive – $250,000 if he plays in at least 75% of the defensive snaps in 2014. Ninkovich played in 95.5% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Ninkovich has played in 94.7% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui’s playing time incentive – $400,000. Hoomananawanui played in 57.5% of the offensive snaps in 2013. Hoomanawanui has played in 43% of the offensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Sebastian Vollmer’s 70% playing-time incentive- $1,000,000. In November the Patriots and Sebastian Vollmer agreed to lower the playing-time levels needed to earn incentives. Quoting the CBA – Any new or altered incentive bonuses renegotiated in a preexisting contract after the start of the regular season in which they may be earned automatically will be deemed “likely to be earned” during that season”. Therefore, this incentive is considered LTBE not because Vollmer made the incentive in 2013 but because the incentive was changed during the 2014 regular season.

46-man per-game roster bonuses – As of December 8, 9:00 AM, the Patriots have $4,223,750 in 46-man active roster bonuses that are now counting against their 2014 cap.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 per active game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $1,200,000 ($150,000*8). Browner has been active for eight games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $350,000 ($87,500*4). Wilfork has already reached this incentive since he has been active for all 14 games this year.
  • Darrelle Revis had a $33,333 per game roster bonus that maxes at $500,000 (15 games). Revis played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000. Revis has been active for all 14 games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $375,000 ($31,250*12). Amendola has been active for all 14 games this year.
  • Julian Edelman has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Edelman played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000 ($31,250*16). Edelman has been active for all 14 games this year.
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $187,500 ($31,250*6). Mayo has already reached this incentive since he had been active for 6 games this year.
  • Rob Ninkovich has a $15,625 per game roster bonus. Ninkovich played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $250,000 ($15,625*16). Ninkovich has been active for all 14 games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $180,000 ($15,000*12). Chung has been active for all 14 games this year
  • Brandon Lafell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Lafell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Lafell has been active for all 14 possible games this year.
  • Ryan Wendell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Wendell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Wendell has been active for 12 games this year.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $81,250 ($6,250 *13). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 14 games this year

NLTBE Incentives ($9,416,250 total)

  • Rob Ninkovich has a 200K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Kyle Arrington has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive – Like to thank the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin for reminding me of this incentive.
  • Sebastian Vollmer has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Jerod Mayo has a 300K NLTBE Pro Bowk incentive
  • Sebastian Vollmer’s playing time incentive – another $1 million if he plays in 80% of the offensive snaps. Vollmer has placed in 94.1% of the offensive snaps this year.
  • Vince Wilfork’s Playing-time incentives:
    • If he plays 50 percent of the defensive snaps: $500,000
    • If he plays 60 percent of the defensive snaps: $1.25 million
    • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps: $2 million
    • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team makes the divisional round of the playoffs, he makes $2.5 million
    • If Wilfork plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team is top 10 in points allowed, he earns $500,000

    Vince Wilfork has played in 73.2% of the defensive snaps this year. Patriots are 8th in points allowed.

  • Brandon Browner can earn up to $1.25 million in playing-time incentives. Do not know the trigger levels at this time.Brandon Browner played in 43.5% of the snaps in 2013. He has played in 52.6% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014
  • Danny Amendola has a $500,000 NLTBE incentive that is tied to receptions. Do not know the exact trigger levels at this time but presume that the trigger level is no less than 64 receptions since that is the number of catches Amendola had with the Rams in 2012. Like to thank the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin for informing me of this incentive.Danny Amendola has had 15
    receptions so far in 2014.
  • Julian Edelman has a $500,000 NTLBE incentive that can be earned in one of the following four ways:
    1. 1,057 receiving yards
    2. 70 receptions plus seven TDs
    3. 80 receptions plus 13 wins
    4. 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance

    After 14 games, Julian has 92 receptions totaling 972 yards. He has 4 receiving touchdowns and the Patriots have won 11 games.

Per the CBA, “Any roster bonus which is deemed not “likely to be earned” based upon the player’s performance during the prior year shall immediately be included in Team Salary when earned” so as the below players play in more games in 2014 than they did in 2013 the Patriots will lose cap space in the amount of the 46-man active roster bonus. Example – Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013. He has played in 8 games in 2014. The Patriots have lost $350,000 ($87,500 *4) in cap space so far this season.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $300,000 ($150,000*2). Browner has been been active for 8 games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 46-man active per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $1,050,000 ($87,500*12). Wilfork has been active for all 14 games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $125,000 ($31,250*4). Amendola has been active for all 14 games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $60,000 ($15,000*4). Chung has been active for all 14 games this year
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $18,750 ($6,250*3). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 14 games this year
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $312,500 ($31,250 * 10). Mayo was active for 6 games this year.
Amount Event Likelihood
$200,000 Ninkovich making the Pro Bowl Possible
$250,000 Arrington making the Pro Bowl Unlikely
$250,000 Vollmer making the Pro Bowl Possible
$300,000 Mayo making the Pro Bowl Impossible
$1,000,000 Vollmer exceeding 80% playing time Probable
$2,000,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time Probable
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots making to the divisional round Probable
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots finishing in Top 10 in Points allowed Possible
$1,250,000 Browner’s exceeding playing-time incentives Possible
$500,000 Amendola’s receptions incentive Impossible
$500,000 Edelman has four different ways to earn this incentive.
1.) 1,057 receiving yards
2.) 70 receptions plus seven TDs
3.) 80 receptions plus 13 wins
4.) 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance
Probable
$875,000 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for more than 4 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$62,500 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for more than 12 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$30,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for more than 12 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$6,250 Hoomanawanui being on the 46-man roster for more than 13 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$175,000 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Wilfork misses decrease amount by $87,500. Probable
$62,500 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Amendola misses up to a total of three missed games decrease amount by $31,250. Possible
$30,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Chung misses up to a total of three missed games decrease amount by $15,000. Probable
$300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 10 games. For each game Browner misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $150,000. Probable
$12,500 Hoomanawanui being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Hoomanawanui misses up to a total of three missed games decrease amount by $6,250. Probable
$312,500 Mayo being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Impossible
$300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 12 games. Impossible
Impossible $1,412,500
Unlikely Total $250,000
Possible Total $1,700,000
Probable Total $5,080,000
Earned Total $973,750
NLTBE Incentive Total $9,416,250

As far as I know, the Patriots will not be credited with any unreached LTBE incentives (Wendell’s being inactive for two games, for example) in 2014. What will happened is that any unreached LTBE incentives will be used to offset NLTBE incentives that were actually earned by other players at the end of the year and there will be an adjustment made to the Patriots 2014 rollover amount

After Week 14 projection
Negative means that the player reached a NLTBE incentive
Positive means that the player did not earned a LTBE incentive

  • Edelman’s receptions (-$500,000)
  • Wilfork’s playing more than 70% (- $2,000,000)
  • Wilfork playing more than 70% of the defensive snaps AND the Patriots make it to the divisional round (-$500,000)
  • Wilfork playing more than 70% of the defensive snaps and the Patriots defense finishing in the Top 10 in points allowed (-$500,000)
  • Vollmer’s playing-time incentive (- $1,000,000)
  • Wendell’s per-game roster bonus ($25,000)
  • Hoomanawanui’s playing-time incentive ($400,000)
  • Totals (-$4,025,000)Let’s say that the Patriots end the 2014 regular season with $5 million in cap space. The $4.025 million will be subtracted from that resulting in a previous year carryover amount of $750,000.

Tracking New England Patriots incentives after Week 14

LTBE bonuses count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned, NLTBE bonuses do not. At the end of the season, the NFL calculates how much each team had set aside for LTBEs that weren’t earned – or said differently, it figures out how much was charged to the team’s cap that was not actually spent. Similarly, the NFL calculates the amount of incentives designated NLTBE that were actually earned. If the unearned LTBEs are greater than the earned NLTBEs, then the following year’s salary cap for that team is increased by the net amount. Similarly, if the earned NLTBEs exceed the unearned LTBEs, then the team’s cap for the following year is lowered by that amount. You can see an example of the effect of cap adjustments at USA Today. The teams with negative cap adjustments had most likely earned more NLTBE incentives in 2013 than they did not earn LTBE incentives.

In 2014 the Patriots received a credit of $2,002,250 toward their 2014 cap number because of the LTBE/NTLBE calculation. The 2014 Patriots adjusted cap of $139,109,051 consists of $133,000,000 (League Cap) + $2,002,250 (LTBE/NLTBE adjustment) + $4,106,081 (rollover amount from 2013 season.

LTBE Incentives ($7,473,750 total)

  • Matthew Slater has a 300K LTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Vince Wilfork’s weight bonus – $300,000.
  • Vince Wilfork’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 1.
  • Brandon Browner’s 53-man roster bonus – $500,000 – Earned Week 5
  • Rob Ninkovich’s playing time incentive – $250,000 if he plays in at least 75% of the defensive snaps in 2014. Ninkovich played in 95.5% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Ninkovich has played in 94.3% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui’s playing time incentive – $400,000. Hoomananawanui played in 57.5% of the offensive snaps in 2013. Hoomanawanui has played in 43.2% of the offensive snaps so far in 2014.
  • Sebastian Vollmer’s 70% playing-time incentive- $1,000,000. In November the Patriots and Sebastian Vollmer agreed to lower the playing-time levels needed to earn incentives. Quoting the CBA – Any new or altered incentive bonuses renegotiated in a preexisting contract after the start of the regular season in which they may be earned automatically will be deemed “likely to be earned” during that season”. Therefore, this incentive is considered LTBE not because Vollmer made the incentive in 2013 but because the incentive was changed during the 2014 regular season.

46-man per-game roster bonuses – As of December 8, 9:00 AM, the Patriots have $4,223,750 in 46-man active roster bonuses that are now counting against their 2014 cap.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 per active game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $1,200,000 ($150,000*8). Browner has been active for seven games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $350,000 ($87,500*4). Wilfork has already reached this incentive since he has been active for all 13 games this year.
  • Darrelle Revis had a $33,333 per game roster bonus that maxes at $500,000 (15 games). Revis played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000. Revis has been active for all 13 games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $375,000 ($31,250*12). Amendola has been active for all 13 games this year.
  • Julian Edelman has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Edelman played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $500,000 ($31,250*16). Edelman has been active for all 13 games this year.
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $187,500 ($31,250*6). Mayo has already reached this incentive since he had been active for 6 games this year.
  • Rob Ninkovich has a $15,625 per game roster bonus. Ninkovich played in 16 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $250,000 ($15,625*16). Ninkovich has been active for all 13 games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $180,000 ($15,000*12). Chung has been active for all 13 games this year
  • Brandon Lafell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Lafell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Lafell has been active for all 13 possible games this year.
  • Ryan Wendell has a $12,500 per game roster bonus. Wendell played in 16 games last year so his LTBE amount is $200,000 ($12,500 *16). Wendell has been active for 11 games this year.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his LTBE amount is $81,250 ($6,250 *13). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 13 games this year

NLTBE Incentives ($9,416,250 total)

  • Rob Ninkovich has a 200K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Kyle Arrington has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive – Like to thank the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin for reminding me of this incentive.
  • Sebastian Vollmer has a 250K NLTBE Pro Bowl incentive
  • Jerod Mayo has a 300K NLTBE Pro Bowk incentive
  • Sebastian Vollmer’s playing time incentive – another $1 million if he plays in 80% of the offensive snaps. Vollmer has placed in 93.7% of the offensive snaps this year.
  • Vince Wilfork’s Playing-time incentives:
    • If he plays 50 percent of the defensive snaps: $500,000
    • If he plays 60 percent of the defensive snaps: $1.25 million
    • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps: $2 million
    • If he plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team makes the divisional round of the playoffs, he makes $2.5 million
    • If Wilfork plays 70 percent of the defensive snaps and the team is top 10 in points allowed, he earns $500,000

    Vince Wilfork has played in 74.7% of the defensive snaps this year. Patriots are 13th in points allowed.

  • Brandon Browner can earn up to $1.25 million in playing-time incentives. Do not know the trigger levels at this time.Brandon Browner played in 43.5% of the snaps in 2013. He has played in 48.6% of the defensive snaps so far in 2014
  • Danny Amendola has a $500,000 NLTBE incentive that is tied to receptions. Do not know the exact trigger levels at this time but presume that the trigger level is no less than 64 receptions since that is the number of catches Amendola had with the Rams in 2012. Like to thank the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin for informing me of this incentive.Danny Amendola has had 14
    receptions so far in 2014.
  • Julian Edelman has a $500,000 NTLBE incentive that can be earned in one of the following four ways:
    1. 1,057 receiving yards
    2. 70 receptions plus seven TDs
    3. 80 receptions plus 13 wins
    4. 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance

    After 13 games, Julian has 85 receptions totaling 884 yards. He has 3 receiving touchdowns and the Patriots have won ten games.

Per the CBA, “Any roster bonus which is deemed not “likely to be earned” based upon the player’s performance during the prior year shall immediately be included in Team Salary when earned” so as the below players play in more games in 2014 than they did in 2013 the Patriots will lose cap space in the amount of the 46-man active roster bonus. Example – Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013. He has played in 8 games in 2014. The Patriots have lost $350,000 ($87,500 *4) in cap space so far this season.

  • Brandon Browner has a $150,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Browner played in 8 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $300,000 ($150,000*2). Browner has been been active for 7 games this year.
  • Vince Wilfork has a $87,500 46-man active per game roster bonus. Wilfork played in 4 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $1,050,000 ($87,500*12). Wilfork has been active for all 13 games this year.
  • Danny Amendola has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Amendola played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $125,000 ($31,250*4). Amendola has been active for all 13 games this year.
  • Patrick Chung has a $15,000 46-man active per game roster bonus. Chung played in 12 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $60,000 ($15,000*4). Chung has been active for all 13 games this year
  • Michael Hoomanawanui has a $6,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Hoomanawanui played in 13 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $18,750 ($6,250*3). Hoomanawanui has been active for all 13 games this year
  • Jerod Mayo has a $31,250 46-man active per game roster bonus. Mayo played in 6 games in 2013 so his NLTBE amount is $312,500 ($31,250 * 10). Mayo was active for 6 games this year.
Amount Event Likelihood
$200,000 Ninkovich making the Pro Bowl Possible
$250,000 Arrington making the Pro Bowl Unlikely
$250,000 Vollmer making the Pro Bowl Possible
$300,000 Mayo making the Pro Bowl Impossible
$1,000,000 Vollmer exceeding 80% playing time Probable
$2,000,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time Probable
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots making to the divisional round Probable
$500,000 Wilfork exceeding 70% playing time and Patriots finishing in Top 10 in Points allowed Possible
$1,250,000 Browner’s exceeding playing-time incentives Possible
$500,000 Amendola’s receptions incentive Impossible
$500,000 Edelman has four different ways to earn this incentive.
1.) 1,057 receiving yards
2.) 70 receptions plus seven TDs
3.) 80 receptions plus 13 wins
4.) 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance
Probable
$787,500 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for more than 4 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$31,250 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for more than 12 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$15,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for more than 12 games. Earned and already counting against 2014 cap
$262,500 Wilfork being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Wilfork misses decrease amount by $87,500. Probable
$93,750 Amendola being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Amendola misses up to a total of three missed games decrease amount by $31,250. Possible
$45,000 Chung being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Chung misses up to a total of three missed games decrease amount by $15,000. Probable
$300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 10 games. For each game Browner misses up to a total of four missed games decrease amount by $150,000. Probable
$18,750 Hoomanawanui being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. For each game Hoomanawanui misses up to a total of three missed games decrease amount by $6,250. Probable
$312,500 Mayo being on the 46-man roster for all 16 games. Impossible
$300,000 Browner being on the 46-man roster for 12 games. Impossible
Impossible $1,412,500
Unlikely Total $250,000
Possible Total $1,700,000
Probable Total $5,220,000
Earned Total $833,750
NLTBE Incentive Total $9,416,250

As far as I know, the Patriots will not be credited with any unreached LTBE incentives (Wendell’s being inactive for two games, for example) in 2014. What will happened is that any unreached LTBE incentives will be used to offset NLTBE incentives that were actually earned by other players at the end of the year and there will be an adjustment made to the Patriots 2014 rollover amount

After Week 14 projection
Negative means that the player reached a NLTBE incentive
Positive means that the player did not earned a LTBE incentive

  • Edelman’s receptions (-$500,000)
  • Wilfork’s playing more than 70% (- $2,000,000)
  • Wilfork playing more than 70% of the defensive snaps AND the Patriots make it to the divisional round (-$500,000)
  • Wilfork playing more than 70% of the defensive snaps and the Patriots defense finishing in the Top 10 in points allowed (-$500,000)
  • Vollmer’s playing-time incentive (- $1,000,000)
  • Wendell’s per-game roster bonus ($25,000)
  • Hoomanawanui’s playing-time incentive ($400,000)
  • Totals (-$4,025,000)Let’s say that the Patriots end the 2014 regular season with $5 million in cap space. The $4.025 million will be subtracted from that resulting in a previous year carryover amount of $750,000.

Surname First End of 2013 Status Current Status
Aiken Danny 53 man roster 53 man roster
Allen Ryan 53 man roster 53 man roster
Amendola Danny 53 man roster 53 man roster
Armstead Armond NFI Retired
Arrington Kyle 53 man roster 53 man roster
Barker Chris 53 man roster Waived
Beauharnais Steve 53 man roster Waived
Bequette Jake 53 man roster Waived
Blount LeGarrette 53 man roster 53 man roster
Bolden Brandon 53 man roster 53 man roster
Boyce Josh IR Waived
Brady Tom 53 man roster 53 man roster
Buchanan Michael 53 man roster IR
Cannon Marcus 53 man roster 53 man roster
Carter Andre 53 man roster Unsigned
Cave Braxston Practice Squad Waived
Collie Austin 53 man roster Unsigned
Collins Jamie 53 man roster 53 man roster
Connolly Dan 53 man roster 53 man roster
Davis Ja’Gared 53 man roster Waived
Davis Kanorris 53 man roster Waived
Dennard Alfonzo 53 man roster 53 man roster
Develin James 53 man roster 53 man roster
Devey Jordan Practice Squad 53 man roster
Dobson Aaron 53 man roster IR
Dunn Reggie Practice Squad Waived
Ebner Nate 53 man roster 53 man roster
Edelman Julian 53 man roster 53 man roster
Fletcher Dane 53 man roster Signed with Another Team
Forston Marcus Practice Squad Waived
Gostkowski Stephen 53 man roster 53 man roster
Green Justin 53 man roster Traded
Gregory Steve 53 man roster Released
Grissom Cory IR Waived
Gronkowski Rob IR 53 man roster
Harmon Duron 53 man roster 53 man roster
Harrison Mark NFI Waived
Hightower Dont’a 53 man roster 53 man roster
Hoomanawanui Michael 53 man roster 53 man roster
Jones Chandler 53 man roster 53 man roster
Jones Chris 53 man roster 53 man roster
Kelly Tommy IR Released
Kline Josh 53 man roster 53 man roster
Mallett Ryan 53 man roster Traded
Mankins Logan 53 man roster Traded
Mattes R.J. Practice Squad Waived
Mayo Jerod IR IR
McCourty Devin 53 man roster 53 man roster
McGuffie Sam Practice Squad Waived
Moe T.J. IR Waived
Mulligan Matthew 53 man roster Signed with Another Team
Ninkovich Rob 53 man roster 53 man roster
Orton Greg Practice Squad IR
Reed Taylor Practice Squad Waived
Ridley Stevan 53 man roster IR
Ryan Logan 53 man roster 53 man roster
Siliga Sealver 53 man roster IR
Slater Matthew 53 man roster 53 man roster
Solder Nate 53 man roster 53 man roster
Sopoaga Isaac 53 man roster Released
Spikes Brandon IR Signed with another Team
Svitek Will 53 man roster Signed with another Team
Talib Aqib 53 man roster Signed with Another Team
Thompkins Kenbrell 53 man roster Waived
Vellano Joe 53 man roster Waived
Vereen Shane 53 man roster 53 man roster
Vollmer Sebastian IR 53 man roster
Wendell Ryan 53 man roster 53 man roster
White Chris 53 man roster 53 man roster
Wilfork Vince IR 53 man roster
Williams D.J. 53 man roster Released
Wilson Adrian IR Released
Wilson Tavon 53 man roster 53 man roster
Zusevics Markus IR Waived

Below is a summary.

53 man roster 53
53 man roster 30
IR 4
Released 3
Signed with Another Team 4
Traded 3
Unsigned 2
Waived 7
IR 11
53 man roster 3
IR 1
Released 2
Signed with Another Team 1
Waived 4
NFI 2
Retired 1
Waived 1
Practice Squad 8
53 man roster 1
IR 1
Waived 6
Grand Total 74

New England Patriots CAP-sized thoughts – 3rd quarter edition

  1. Sealver Siliga’s injury has meant more playing-time for Wilfork. Wilfork will achieve a $2 million NLTBE incentive by playing in more than 70% of the defensive snaps. Currently at 76%. If Wilfork plays in at least 70% of the defensive snaps AND the Patriots make it to the divisional round of the playoffs, Vince will earn another $500,000. If Wilfork plays in at least 70% of the defensive snaps AND the Patriots defense finish in the Top 10 in points allowed, Vince will earn another $500,000.  The Pats are currently 13th and are only 6 points away from tying for 10th.
  2. The NFLPA has changed its salary cap space link. It is now found at https://nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report.
  3. Starting this week the Patriots will lose $133,750 in cap space for each and every game that Vince Wilfork, Danny Amendola, and Patrick Chung are on the 46-man active roster.
  4. As each week goes by, any cap savings from any extensions lessens as players get paid for each week.
  5. In an interview with Gary Tangauy and Andy Gresh earlier this year  Jonathan Kraft mentioned the need to account for incentives was one major reason for the Patriots having so much cap space. I talked about incentives in great detail in this blog post http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=766
  6. With the new CBA there is a cash spending requirement. Teams are required to spend 89% of the total cap for the four years (2013/2014/2015/2016). Last year the cap was $123 million. Patriots spent in cash about $129,656,000 or about 105%. Source – http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/10586646/new-england-patriots-spent-free-agents-not-wisely
    This year the cap is $133 million. According to my numbers the Patriots have spent about 100 million in 2014. They may spend another 3 to 6 million depending on how many NTLBE incentives are reached. 100 million is 75% of $133 million. The total cap amount for the 2013 and 2014 years is $256,000,000. The Patriots have spent in cash so far in 2013 and in 2014 $229,656,000 or about 89.7%.
  7. Provided 7 possible reasons for the Patriots to have 7 million or so in cap space currently at
    http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=814.
  8. FYI – Brady’s 2015 cap hit is $13 million. If traded between now and 6/2/2015 his 2015 cap hit increases to $18 million. If he is on the Patriots Week 17 roster, his future salaries ($24 million worth) become fully guaranteed and without any offsets. So if cut during the 2015 season his cap hit would be $42 million (18 +24)
  9. There is this notion that the Patriots’ high amount of dead money prevented them spending cash this year. Do not see a strong correlation between the two at http://overthecap.com/cash-spending and http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space. Example – The Browns have about 2 million more in dead money than do the Patriots and yet have to manage to spend $40 million more this year.
  10. The Patriots have been among the league leaders in cash spending in even-numbered years. It appears that 2014 will end that trend.
  11. Do not see an correlation between cash spending and winning games.
  12. Do not see an correlation between cap space and winning games.
  13. Am hoping that someone reading this will be able to tell me the trigger levels for the playing-time incentives that Brandon Browner has for 2014 and Wendell has for 2015. We know that Wendell has $1.3 million in incentives. Right now, I am considering them NLTBE. If they are LTBE because Wendell is playing so many snaps in 2013, that would increase his 2015 cap number from $1.6 million to $2.9 million.
  14. Provide a 2015 salary preview in this blog post.
  15. Provide comparables and propose several contracts for Darrelle Revis and the Patriots in this blog post.
  16. Provide comparables and propose a couple of contracts for Devin McCourty and the Patriots in this blog post.
  17. I project that the New England Patriots will receive a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2015. Please see this blog post for further details.
  18. Proven Performance Escalator (PPE) – As part of the new CBA there is a proven performance escalator for draft picks chosen in Round 3 through 7. Nate Ebner and Alfonzo Dennard are eligible for it in 2015. Chris Jones is eligible for it in 2016. Bryan Stork is eligible for it in 2017. An eligible player will qualify for the Proven Performance Escalator in his fourth League Year if: (1) he participated in a minimum of 35% of his Club’s offensive or defensive plays in any two of his previous three regular seasons; or (2) he participated in a “cumulative average” of at least 35% of his Club’s offensive or defensive plays over his previous three regular seasons. Alfonzo Dennard played in 53.3% of the defensive snaps in 2012 and 62.3% of the defensive snaps in 2013. Irregardless of what he does in 2014, Alfonzo Dennard has already reached the escalator so his 2015 cap number will increase from $674,462 to $1,517,462, an increase of $843,000. Chris Jones has played in enough snaps in 2013 and in 2014 to earn the PPE in 2017. Stork is well on his way to making 2014 count as a qualifying year.
  19. 4PM December 27 is a deadline for these three things
    • Clubs must provide the Management Council with written notice, signed by the individual club’s owner, indicating the amount, if any, of the club’s 2014 league year salary cap room to be credited to the club’s 2015 team salary.
    • Redo a player’s deal
    • To waive Tom Brady so that his future salaries are not guaranteed.


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