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(PHOTO: Dec 6, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) carrie the ball during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Nissan Stadium. The Titans won 42-39. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: USATSI-224818 ORIG FILE ID: 20151206_ads_ah2_029.JPG) The 11-2 New England Patriots seek to avoid the proverbial ‘trap’ game, as the best team in the AFC hosts a 3-10 club that appears to be headed towards making the first overall pick in the 2016 draft Sunday. Game kicks off at 1:00 pm eastern time Sunday and is available on CBS throughout most of the eastern United States plus the northwest. Thanks to there being an unheard of five late games this week plus a game Saturday, the Patriots-Titans tilt is one of just three early games this week on CBS, who has the doubleheader. For out of town fans hoping for an easy blowout, be careful what you wish for: that could mean your local station switches to Houston at Indy or KC at Baltimore.
NFL Week 15 Playoff Picture with Clinching and Elimination Scenarios
The Patriots clinched the AFC East title last week, and can finish no lower than the number three seed in the conference. New England can clinch a first round bye with a win, coupled with a Denver loss to Pittsburgh. The Pats could also clinch a bye with a win, a Bengals loss, and a tie between the Broncos and Steelers.
When: Sunday, December 20 at 1:00 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
Television: CBS; announcers: Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
Odds: In early advanced ‘look-ahead’ lines posted a week ago Thursday, the Westgate listed the Patriots as ten-point favorites. Immediately following last Sunday’s Week 14 games when the Patriots defeated Houston 27-6 and the Jets beat Tennessee 30-8, the Patriots opened as 12½ point favorites. That line quickly rose to 14 points, where it has for the most part remained since then. Earlier in the week a few venues were giving the Titans 14½ points, and as of Saturday if you shop around you may find a few places that are at 13½. The over/under is 46½ or 47 depending on where you visit, and the typical money line has pushed up to New England -1400 and Tennessee +800. While this game may seem like a sure thing, risking $1400 to win $100 does not appeal to me in any manner whatsoever.
Head-to-Head Series Record: Dating back to the inaugural season of the AFL in 1960 when the two franchises were known as the Boston Patriots and Houston Oilers, the Pats lead the series 23-16-1 (including a 1-1 playoff split). On New Years Eve in 1978 I witnessed the Patriots first ever home playoff game, at Schaefer Stadium. On a cold gloomy day Earl Campbell ran for 118 yards, Dan Pastorini threw three touchdown passes, and Houston opened up a 21-0 halftime lead and held the Pats off in the second half to win 31-14. The team lacked focus after being thoroughly distracted by the suspension and reinstatement of head coach Chuck Fairbanks, who had accepted a much better paying job with the University of Colorado. This game was in the middle of a four-game winning streak for the Oilers against the Pats, though the three others were much more closely contested, decided by a grand total of 14 points.
Since that time the Patriots have won eleven of the fourteen meetings between the two clubs, including the last five in a row. The only loss in the Belichick-Brady era came on a Monday night game late in 2002. The most recent games between these two teams have not been close: the Patriots won 34-13 at Nashville in 2012, 59-0 in Foxborough in 2009, and 40-23 in Nashville in 2006. In the only other post-season game between the two clubs, the Patriots won 17-14 in the 2003 playoffs on a bitterly cold day when Bethel Johnson caught a 41-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady, Adam Vinatieri kicked the game-winning 46-yard field goal, and an open Drew Bennett dropped a fourth down pass from Steve McNair to end the game.
Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in any given game. Numbers in green indicate a top-ten ranking while underlined green is top-five; red indicates a bottom-ten ranking and underlined red is bottom-five.
With the return of Rob Gronkowski, in one week New England’s ranking in pass completion percentage went up five spots from 16th to 11th. The defense now also ranks higher in several categories, including up seven spots in the NFL’s official defensive ranking (yardage), from 13th to sixth.
New England Patriots Offense versus Tennessee Titans Defense
Scoring per Game: Patriots 30.9 (3rd); Titans 25.1 (22nd)
Yardage per Game: Patriots 397 (3rd); Titans 344 (13th)
First Downs per Game: Patriots 23.3 (2nd); Titans 20.1 (17th)
Yards per Play: Patriots 5.9 (6th); Titans 5.6 (23rd)
Yards per Drive: Patriots 34.2 (7th); Titans 30.7 (11th)
Points per Drive: Patriots 2.65 (2nd); Titans 2.20 (27th)
Drive Success Rate: Patriots .742 (2nd); Titans .719 (26th)
Points per Play: Patriots .458 (3rd); Titans .407 (28th)
Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 3.5 (3rd); Titans 3.2 (28th)
Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Patriots 2.8 (1st); Titans 2.2 (25th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: Patriots 68.5% (2nd); Titans 65.1% (29th)
Plays per Game: Patriots 67.5 (7th); Titans 61.6 (4th)
Third Down Conversions per Game: Patriots 5.8 (7th); Titans 5.5 (22nd)
Third Down Percentage: Patriots 43.4% (5th); Titans 42.5% (26th)
Punts per Score: Patriots 0.8 (3rd); Titans 1.1 (15th)
Punts per Game: Patriots 4.5 (10th); Titans 4.5 (21st)
Rushing Yards: Patriots 90.6 (27th); Titans 111.5 (17th)
Yards per Rush: Patriots 3.82 (24th); Titans 4.00 (21st)
Passing Yards: Patriots 307 (1st); Titans 233 (9th)
Yards per Pass Attempt: Patriots 7.8 (5th); Titans 8.1 (30th)
Completion Percentage: Patriots 64.3% (11th); Titans 64.3% (19th)
Passer Rating: Patriots 103.8 (4th); Titans 102.3 (31st)
TD Passes/Picks: Patriots +27 (1st), 33/6; Titans -18 (29th), 28/10
Complete Passes per Game: Patriots 26.6 (3rd); Titans 19.9 (1st)
Incomplete Passes per Game: Patriots 14.8 (27th); Titans 11.2 (28th)
Quarterback Sacks per Game: Patriots 2.5 (20th); Titans 2.7 (6th)
Sack Yardage Lost per Game: Patriots 14.4 (14th); Titans 18.8 (5th)
Tennessee Titans Offense versus New England Patriots Defense
Scoring: Titans 19.5 (27th); Patriots 19.5 (9th)
Yardage: Titans 325 (28th); Patriots 329 (6th)
First Downs: Titans 19.7 (20th); Patriots 18.8 (7th)
Yards per Play: Titans 5.3 (23rd); Patriots 5.1 (3rd)
Yards per Drive: Titans 28.3 (29th); Patriots 28.5 (6th)
Points per Drive: Titans 1.58 (27th); Patriots 1.55 (7th)
Drive Success Rate: Titans .677 (24th); Patriots .681 (11th)
Points per Play: Titans .318 (23rd); Patriots .301 (7th)
Touchdowns per Game: Titans 2.4 (18th); Patriots 2.2 (10th)
Red Zone Touchdowns per Game: Titans 1.6 (16th); Patriots 1.5 (8th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: Titans 61.8% (9th); Patriots 55.9% (17th)
Plays per Game: Titans 61.2 (27th); Patriots 64.6 (20th)
Third Down Conversions per Game: Titans 4.1 (29th); Patriots 5.2 (15th)
Third Down Percentage: Titans 33.3% (28th); Patriots 37.2% (11th)
Punts per Score: Titans 1.6 (28th); Patriots 1.5 (4th)
Punts per Game: Titans 5.2 (23rd); Patriots 4.5 (9th)
Rushing Yards: Titans 96.8 (22nd); Patriots 98.6 (10th)
Yards per Rush: Titans 4.04 (15th); Patriots 4.07 (14th)
Passing Yards: Titans 228 (25th); Patriots 231 (7th)
Yards per Pass Attempt: Titans 7.4 (11th); Patriots 6.8 (7th)
Completion Percentage: Titans 63.1% (19th); Patriots 59.4% (8th)
Passer Rating: Titans 89.1 (18th); Patriots 83.1 (9th)
TD Passes/Picks: Titans +8 (19th), 21/13; Patriots -7 (9th), 17/10
Complete Passes per Game: Titans 21.3 (22nd); Patriots 22.1 (14th)
Incomplete Passes per Game: Titans 12.5 (9th); Patriots 15.1 (5th)
Quarterback Sacks per Game: Titans 3.4 (31st); Patriots 3.2 (2nd)
Sack Yardage Lost: Titans 22.2 (31st); Patriots 22.2 (2nd)
Turnovers
Patriot Giveaways: 0.9 (3rd); Titan Takeaways: 1.2 (21st)
Titan Giveaways: 1.9 (29th); Patriot Takeaways: 1.3 (18th)
Penalties
Penalties per Game: Patriots 6.4 (6th); Titans 6.2 (5th)
Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 59.8 (19th); Titans 49.8 (3rd)
Opponent Penalties per Game: Patriots 7.2 (12th); Titans 7.5 (6th)
Opponent Penalty Yards per Game: Patriots 65.5 (9th); Titans 65.2 (11th)
Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings
Team Efficiency: Weighted DVOA: Patriots 25.5% (5th); Titans -25.1% (30th)
Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA: Patriots 19.4% (2nd); Titans -12.8% (27th)
Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA: Patriots -5.9% (9th); Titans 5.4% (21st)
Special Teams DVOA: Patriots 3.5% (4th); Titans -4.0% (30th)
An interesting aspect to this game is how well New England can run the ball, behind an inconsistent offensive line and their top two running backs now on injured reserve. If the Patriots are too one-dimensional on offense then Tennessee might keep it interesting for a while thanks to their pass rush, but in the end the Titans are just far too overmatched in all three phases of the game to keep pace. The Patriots already had their annual WTF game two weeks ago against Philadelphia; they are not about to look past this one or lose a second straight home game.
Take the Patriots minus the points despite the big line.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Titans 13
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