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ZOGBY ... McCain/Palin Up by 2.

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by IcyPatriot, Aug 30, 2008.

  1. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows

    McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.

    In other words, the race is a dead heat.

    http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html
  2. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Gallup, Obama 49/McCain 41

    http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

    LOL... ps, the tracking poll number will change with time. This is right about midnight Saturday the 30th.
  3. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey


    The 2nd string is doing the polling? The weekend?
  4. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Gallup's poll is a 3 day poll so between 1/3 and 2/3 (depending when in the day the poll is taken) of that poll is before Palin was announced as the pick. And probably closer to the 2/3 before many had seen much about her.
  5. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    I'm not discounting the numbers, but that poll is from a 3 day average that predates the Palin announcement.

    That being said, most of the quick polls that have been conducted, show record low confidence in Palin as a CIC. Dan Quayle type figures. Those polls have very high percentages of people who have "no opinion", since they haven't made a judgement yet, as they know little about her. I'd guess that is to be expected. The next few weeks, especially her performance in the convention, will be critical for the GOP. They have to shape who she is in the minds of voters, or else this pick will sink their ship.
  6. cupofjoe1962

    cupofjoe1962 Rookie

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    Jay Sevrin always says that the people running the campaigns use the Zogby
    polls.

    He has run a few campaigns, so who am I to doubt him.
  7. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't get the point of posting polls. Right now they mean very little. But, darn, I should have posted the Gallup poll yesterday showing Obama up by 8, or maybe just post the electoral college tallies showing Obama well ahead.
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2008
  8. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This is a pretty good source and a compendium of all the polls updated frequently.. all polls except 3 have Obama between 3-8 points.. not that this means all that much, as it is still early..

    http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm
  9. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Here's another good site, that has both electoral and national numbers:

    http://www.pollster.com/

    Seems to me the national numbers are far less relevant than the electoral college numbers.
  10. PatsFanInMaine

    PatsFanInMaine Rookie

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    It's highly possible that in a McCain victory he would get less votes nationally than Obama but win the Electoral College.
  11. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    You are a free-thinking individual, that's who you are!

    You should automatically doubt him because Jay Severin is full of Sh!t. He's got a total hard-on for Romney, claims that Democrats and other liberals are traitors and enemies of the state, can't get over the fact that he voted twice for a true traitor and enemy of America (by Severin's own admission), Bush.

    Believe what you want, but don't trust ANYONE on the radio or TV. They are all agenda-driven and have dillusions of grandeur.
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2008
  12. PatsFanInVa

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    Yeah! Trust the interweb!

    :)

    [note: I'm just laughing at all of us basically.]
  13. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Last edited: Aug 31, 2008
  14. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree with Patters here :eek:

    The polls won't mean much until, till a couple of weeks after the pubbie convention.
  15. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    That would have been embarrassing to you as that is not a big lead with McCain not having had his convention yet.

    He's not well ahead. He may be in "solid" states but when you add likely states and realize many of the close states are likely to sway to their historical (R), McCain is in fine shape right now for the underdog.
  16. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    The big thing is the state polls, and not the nationals guys. The Palin pick is a big gamble. My guess is that they figure she'll do three things.

    1) She's a woman, and therefore takes away some of the bite of Biden. People percieve that hillary was treated unfairly, and therefore, Dems will have to be carefull in how they criticize her. Also, in being a woman, she reduces the Obama appeal of making histroy.

    2) She clearly energizes the base, and I mean all parts of it. (as far as we know anyway) She's being bandied as a fiscally sane executive, as a caring pro-life mom, and as a person of immense faith. That covers fiscal reagan republicans, the gun & religion clinging average family, and most importantly for McLame, evangelicals. Remember, McCain is disliked by religious conservatives, and evangelicals. They may now go from not showing up, to showing up in droves. We shall see.

    3) Speaking simply, there were 18 million people who voted for Hillary in the primary. Many of whom were left with a very sour taste in their mouths at what they feel was unfair treatment of their girl. Obviously all 18 million were not women, but I'd guess 8-10 million were. Assuming that 20-25% of those women move toward McCain/Palin, that would mean somewhere in the vacinity of 2 million untraditional votes. When you consider that the 120,000 some odd votes in Ohio made George Bush president last time around, nevermind the minimal amount of votes that decided (votes really didn't decide it, I know) Florida in 2000, those disenfranchised Hillary swing voters could steal a couple of valuable, or close states.

    She's a huge gamble. I'm not sure I'd personally be comfortable with her as a VP, were I trying to decide between the two tickets. However, I'm not necessarily the demographic they're targeting, being a 34 year old white male in Massachusetts. For this to work for the GOP, she will have to define herself positively, as being capable, during the convention, and immediately afterward. If the Dems can shape her first, or she falters (think patatoe), then McCain will be in trouble.
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2008
  17. PatsFanInVa

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    Well, Gallup's moved to Obama 48, McCain 42. So on the premise that the 3-day track was 49-41 because 2/3 of it was pre-Palin, she gets them all of a percentage point per day. You would expect that immediate bump to be highest just after the announcement, i.e., on Friday. Whether this represents Thurs/Fri/Sat and there is a lag (I am typing Sunday,) or whether it represents Fri/Sat/Sunday, it's becoming clear that Gallup, at least, has already recorded the "big Palin bump."

    The question coming up will be where these various polls stand after the week's Redfest/distracting hurricane.

    The Palin thing did what it needed to do, stop the bleeding after the Obama speech by grabbing the news. I don't think it did much more than that.

    The question going forward is whether this will BE the big bump for McCain, or whether he takes a lead after the GOP show (he should be able to.)

    Then we've got the debates, and then we've got the dirty war. Settle in for the long haul folks.

    PFnV
  18. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    If it settles in there, that's pretty good for Republicans. Of course, Gustaf is f*cking with their convention bump but there will be some and I think Palin will be well liked when people see her. Polls should be back to close to even soon I think.
  19. PatsFanInVa

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    Yeah, agree actually, 48-42 is easily surmountable in their convention week.

    Unless one or another candidate eats a live baby on camera, we'll be somewhere in sight of even when the debates start.
  20. patsfan13

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    CNN has it as a dead heat.

    http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/31/dead-heat

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