Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PonyExpress, Sep 6, 2008.
where did this poll come from and how did they do it?
i laugh at the unification of party thing. they said bill clinton did it. everybody unifies the part.
Gallup says it is closer but, Obama still ahead..
47 Obama 45 McCain..
Wonder how it will go after tommorrow, all of the candidates are on tv in the AM and Palin is noticeably absent..
I don't want to ruin Pony's post but yeah that unify the party stuff.
Why don't they just say that no voters are defecting and get it over with. Unify the party ... is that like romantic or something.
Getting back to Pony's thread ... all McCain needs to do is get the conservatives and moderate conservatives to the polls and he wins.
Obama ... Obama ... Obama ... if he doesn't win he's going to go to
bed everynight with Hillary's image engrained into his brain ... he could have had a slam dunk.
Oh right, that's why the Republicans all wanted Clinton at the start of the nominating process, right? So that they could suffer a "slam dunk" defeat. :rofl:
Keep trying though...maybe you'll find a buyer for your B.S.
I don't put much stock in Zogby either. The truth is probably somewhere in between.
I like the Rasmussen; it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as Gallup. makes me think the margin of error is less. Rasmussen has it 46-45 for Obama, but says we won't see the full reaction to the GOP convention til middle next week, and the trend is GOP right now.
In any case, it is very tight and the debates will be high stakes events.
I agree that with Hillary on the ticket Obama would be better off than with Biden. Biden is blah. He's just there, and doesn't really add anything.
I have to agree, I think if Hillary was Obama's VP it would be game over.
I've poked in on some large Hillary blogs/forums and they are riled up. Nothing like a woman scorn huh.
Poster after poster claim they will be voting McCain. Only time will tell if they still feel that way in 60 odd days.
The defection of some High ranking Hillary people have also contributed to this. Seems to me after what Hillary has gone through WRT BHO it stands to reason that while she campaigns for BHO, she is really playing for 2012.
While fun to look at, polls mean nothing ATM. Too close to call.
Enough with the polls everyone. Talk about a non-issue. It's like saying Shannon Sharpe picks the Broncos over the Patriots. It means nothing. Luckily the one poll that does mean something is voting day.
www.realclearpolitics.com is good, because it gives the average of all the major national polls. As of now, it's Obama/Biden 46.6 and McCain/Palin 44.2. So it's pretty much a tie.
And that's if you give polls much credence at this point, which it's hard to. But it is fun to talk about.
Not to mention the national number is not the score. It like reporting who is a head in total net yards during a football game. Who cares.... if you are going to pretend this is a horse race with weekly tracking don't tell me the popular vote %; tell me the electoral vote count.
It's far easier to look at one national poll - the macro number tells you enough. If it's real close, within a few percent, it may not give the same number at the stupid EC; but if someone is up reasonably big they'll win both.
Obama needs to be up 10-15% to win. Anything less and he's going to be the biggest loser since Mondale.
When polls put the liberal ahead they're great, when they put the conservative ahead they're no good.
Liberal Women's Movement
Hillary/Pelosi/Boxer/Fienstien/Kennedy's/etc--good good good
Palin--bad bad bad bad girl
Wait....what do any of those women have to do with Kennedy?
Out of curiosity, what makes you say that? Gut feeling?
Because there are about ten or so percent that are lying to the pollsters, they'll never vote for a black guy once they're actually in the booth.
Racism.It's alive and well.
Perhaps he believes in the Bradley effect, ie people will lie to pollsters when being asked about Black politicians to avoid being cast as racist as a result Black politicians poll higher than their results at election time.
Don't know I don't put a lot of weight on polls right now. Then you have the issue of the breakdown and weighting of the polling sample. Better to look at the internals and see the % of dems/indies/ pubbies supporting each candidate. MAny media polls over sample dems.
Teh most accurate polls are the ones the candidates take that we never get to see directly. Given the behavior of the campaigns I would say the trends are moving towards.....
Yep. The Obama camp is moving like a campaign in trouble. McCain/Palin....that sound you hear is the hoofbeats of destiny.
Today McC/P, in 4 years Palin/Jindal, and then we get congress back to boot.
Separate names with a comma.