You guys crack me up -- new insights

[BlitzFritz]

Having lurked here for awhile i decided to join and take/give a few shots. My first post.

Seems like most people fall into three camps -- 1.) total alarmists who say the sky is falling, tom brad is hurt, etc, 2.) biased homers who trust in bill on everything, and 3.) knuckleheads who just **it on everybody else for fun. I think I fall in camp 2 or 3, but I'm not sure yet.

Couple observations that no one has made yet:
1. The Deion affair -- Yes Bioli held firm and did not rip up branch's last year contract. but he did not deter others from doing the same thing. everyone else will consider the "deion path", since it works. he could have paid him this year (like he did for seymour) and said no to others down the road. end result: bioli only saved $3M bucks or so this year. that's it. no moral victory. hmmm

2. Salary cap gap -- Some have said the Kraft is being cheap. My point is that the value of another championship dwarfs the 10-12M dollars saved on the cap. This logic makes no sense. Kraft wants banners, and to increase the value of his team. (So the gap is there to be spent by FO -- we all know that)

3. Free Agent approach -- Bioli are highly opportunistic with FA signings. They see what floats by, the play with it, if they catch it great (Seau), if they don't, so be it (Law, Walker). They dont commit to themselves to get somebody. This is different from other teams.This year, this approach has led them to underspend, and end up with talent gaps at the beginning of the season in DBs and WRs. Are they where they wanted to be right now? Doubtful.

4. Playing for this year vs the long term -- What is clear is that Bioli could have done things to make this years team better, at the expense of future years (eg sign expensive free agents, keep existing talent, spend to the cap for new players this year). Using cap money to pay for seymour, samuel, graham, is just saving money from next year's budget. That means Bioli at this point think they have what they need this year to make a run. Questionable but not impossible. I think Bill is influenced by 2001 -- if he can win with that team, he can win with this team, if he can just get them to gel by midseason. That's his bet. If he does, we should start building the monument in the Boston Common now (we will anyway, but we should start now).

Overall, if I were Kraft, I would say it is a shaky strategy this year. Great draft but shaky overall. Now it's all about coaching and gelling, and avoiding injuries. In Bill we have to Trust.

Thanks for the insights and laughs.

 

[Patters]

Having lurked here for awhile i decided to join and take/give a few shots. My first post.

Seems like most people fall into three camps -- 1.) total alarmists who say the sky is falling, tom brad is hurt, etc, 2.) biased homers who trust in bill on everything, and 3.) knuckleheads who just **it on everybody else for fun. I think I fall in camp 2 or 3, but I'm not sure yet.

Couple observations that no one has made yet:
1. The Deion affair -- Yes Bioli held firm and did not rip up branch's last year contract. but he did not deter others from doing the same thing. everyone else will consider the "deion path", since it works. he could have paid him this year (like he did for seymour) and said no to others down the road. end result: bioli only saved $3M bucks or so this year. that's it. no moral victory. hmmm

1. I think the negotiations got soured along the way until it reached a point where Deion really didn't want to stay with the Pats. I think the Pats made mistakes, but I suspect at the end the bottom line wasn't money. That's why we have so much cap room. We were expecting to get Deion back.

2. Kraft has already said the reason for the cap space is that the Pats were holding onto money for the Deion Branch and Ty Law negotiations. Kraft said in so many words the money is there to be spent. Maybe the Pats can still find a true replacement for Deion.

3. Hopefully, Pioli and BB will spend some of that cap money soon to shore up our receiver corps.

4. I think BB puts everything into every football game. When I saw Maroney returning kicks, part of me wondered if that's risky, but I think BB accepts, and even welcomes, all the risks. He accepts loos of players, injuries, unfair penalties, bad breaks, and whatever else comes his way. It's all part of the game, and he's prepared to fight to win with an entire roster of 2nd stringers if need be, but I do think BB tries to field the best team he possibly can without losing sight of the longer term challenges created by salary caps.

I don't think BB has a shaky strategy this year, so much as the Pats really screwed up with Deion. The other problem, of course, is Gostkowski, but let's hope that's just a technique problem.

 

[jct]

Basically agree with your comments.

I guess that I fall between 1 and 2.
I am a homer with almost blind faith, but also a realist who is not thrilled with our current performance.

The big concern to me is home field advantage based upon the Cinny game.
It could come down to this game at the end of the season.
I believe the game is winnable...
But, no matter what we are still a playoff team and could go all the way.
That is the dissappointing part for me, I believe we SHOULD go all the way.

I believe the front office tried their best.
Next year's 13 picks, salary cap and schedule all look great.
I just want us to be GREAT again this year, not just above average.

 

[mgcolby]

I don't think BB has a shaky strategy this year, so much as the Pats really screwed up with Deion. The other problem, of course, is Gostkowski, but let's hope that's just a technique problem.

Its a technique problem alright but it isn't Gost's it is the Blocking. Tell me what he could have done differently when there is a guy in the backfield before he kicks the ball?

 

[Oswlek]

Its a technique problem alright but it isn't Gost's it is the Blocking. Tell me what he could have done differently when there is a guy in the backfield before he kicks the ball?

It wasn't actually bloked by that guy. I agree with the poor blocking sentiment in the NYJ game, but the Denver one was a low kick.

 

[Displaced - Fan]

Having lurked here for awhile i decided to join and take/give a few shots. My first post.

Couple observations that no one has made yet:
1. The Deion affair -- Yes Bioli held firm and did not rip up branch's last year contract. but he did not deter others from doing the same thing. everyone else will consider the "deion path", since it works. he could have paid him this year (like he did for seymour) and said no to others down the road. end result: bioli only saved $3M bucks or so this year. that's it. no moral victory. hmmm

I'm not sure what you’re getting at here. Deion REFUSED to play without a new contract. He didn't want a 1 year deal, he wanted a multi-year deal worth as much as possible. That's ALL he wanted and wouldn't take anything else. He made it quite clear that he was sitting out until game 10 unless he got what he wanted.

The only twist in this was that his agent said he'd come in and play if the Pats promised not to use the Franchise tag on him next year. In which case the Pats would recieve NOTHING for Branch since he would be a free agent.

 

[Oswlek]

I'm not sure what you’re getting at here. Deion REFUSED to play without a new contract. He didn't want a 1 year deal, he wanted a multi-year deal worth as much as possible. That's ALL he wanted and wouldn't take anything else. He made it quite clear that he was sitting out until game 10 unless he got what he wanted.

The only twist in this was that his agent said he'd come in and play if the Pats promised not to use the Franchise tag on him next year. In which case the Pats would recieve NOTHING for Branch since he would be a free agent.

Yep. This is the point that it seems everyone overlooks. In hindsight, it is clear that Deions was stewing over that 5th years since he first signed the contract. Once NE's initial offer neglected to redo that year, every single move he and his agent made from that point on was to get out of NE.

 

[minvardar]

I think the Patriots miscalculated on the Deion Branch situation. I doubt they believed anyone would pay Branch 6 million a year and give up a #1 pick. Seems like Seattle only did this because they believe Branch is the last key to a Superbowl victory and they are giving up alot in the future to achieve the goal of a Superbowl win this year. Because lets face it Branch is not worth a #1 pick and 36 million over 6 years. It pains me to see Branch on another team, I was a big fan. But a number 1 pick next year is worth it.

Gabriel will be able to get as many yards as either Branch or Givens could have this year when he gets used to the offense. Hopefully Caldwell and Brown can make up the difference. Caldwell seems to be getting a bit more comfortable. We should know more after 3 or 4 more games.

 

[Oswlek]

I think the Patriots miscalculated on the Deion Branch situation. I doubt they believed anyone would pay Branch 6 million a year and give up a #1 pick. Seems like Seattle only did this because they believe Branch is the last key to a Superbowl victory and they are giving up alot in the future to achieve the goal of a Superbowl win this year. Because lets face it Branch is not worth a #1 pick and 36 million over 6 years. It pains me to see Branch on another team, I was a big fan. But a number 1 pick next year is worth it.

Gabriel will be able to get as many yards as either Branch or Givens could have this year when he gets used to the offense. Hopefully Caldwell and Brown can make up the difference. Caldwell seems to be getting a bit more comfortable. We should know more after 3 or 4 more games.

I cannot disagree more. NE's inital offer was more than 6mm a year and players are traded for high picks pretty regularly.

What NE miscalculated was Branch's resolve to get outa Dodge. What they most likely were thinking was that they would use the other team as a negotiating tool. Once Deion agreed to the contract, they would say, "Alright, here you go." But Deion wanted no part in that.

 

[godef]

You crack *me* up, BF! Who the h*ll is Bioli?

 

[jimmyjames]

I cannot disagree more. NE's inital offer was more than 6mm a year and players are traded for high picks pretty regularly.

What NE miscalculated was Branch's resolve to get outa Dodge. What they most likely were thinking was that they would use the other team as a negotiating tool. Once Deion agreed to the contract, they would say, "Alright, here you go." But Deion wanted no part in that.

I'm with you. Based on the fact that the Pats courted Derrick Mason last offseason and then drafted Chad Jackson in the 2nd (money aside) the Pats did not see Branch as their franchise receiver.
Since Branch and his camp never came back with a counter offer and were so adamant about not getting the franchise tag it seems pretty clear that Branch wanted out whether this year or next. Had that been mnore clear they may have made more of an effort to re-sign Givens, but at the time Branch was very vocal about wanting to stay.

 

[minvardar]

I cannot disagree more. NE's inital offer was more than 6mm a year and players are traded for high picks pretty regularly.

What NE miscalculated was Branch's resolve to get outa Dodge. What they most likely were thinking was that they would use the other team as a negotiating tool. Once Deion agreed to the contract, they would say, "Alright, here you go." But Deion wanted no part in that.

So you think Branch is worth 36 million over six years and your #1 pick next year then. Sorry but he is not worth that. I guess we will just have to disagree then.

 

[Oswlek]

So you think Branch is worth 36 million over six years and your #1 pick next year then. Sorry but he is not worth that. I guess we will just have to disagree then.

I never said that I think that, just that I knew, and I think NE knew, that someone would think that.

Particularly someone who will likely have a low 1st rounder and had extra cap room. Like Seattle.

 

[minvardar]

I never said that I think that, just that I knew, and I think NE knew, that someone would think that.

Particularly someone who will likely have a low 1st rounder and had extra cap room. Like Seattle.

Ok I understand what you are saying. But under the current regime they are always looking out for the future as well as the present. So I think they knew exactly what they were doing. If someone was willing to pony up 6 million a year for Branch and give a 1st rounder the patriots would be willing to not pay a receiver 6 million a year in order to get a 1st rounder. If nobody offered up a first rounder the Patriots were prepared to overpay for Branch a bit at 6 million a year.

None of us know what the management is thinking. All of this is pure speculation. But for me I tend to trust the management. They are paid to make the tough decisions. And with their track record they are certainly more qualified than any of us.