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So let's take a look at possible trade value then. New England is going to be picking 32nd next year. So they need to move up from that position how many spots to get into prime DT territory? Here are the draft positions for the 1st three DTS taken in the 1st round of the past five drafts: 2012 draft (11,12,14), 2011 draft (3,13,18), 2010 draft (2,3,10), 2009 draft (9,24,32), 2008 draft (5,7,29).
The average draft position of the 1st DT taken is 6th, the second 12th, and the third 21st. Those picks are worth 1600, 1200, and 800 respectively. So we'd need to give up 1000 points, 600 points, or 200 points in order to move up. We currently own the 32nd, 64th, 96th, 128th, and the 224th. Those picks are worth 590 points, 270 points, 116 points, 44 points, and 2 points.
The total value of our picks is 1022 points. Meaning we could definitely afford the 21st pick, maybe pry away the 12th pick, and have almost no shot at the 6th pick.
Just by looking at those numbers, we'd have to trade our entire draft in order to get one top shelf DT. That means that Hankins (if he stays on his present course of accomplishment) is out of reach. Lotulelei is within our grasp, but we'd have to give up a lot. Would BB be willing to do a Ditka???
I'd be willing to do it though in order to really complement our roster. I think we're very close. We can send Brady out as the greatest winner of all time with minor improvements. For that, I'd be willing to go all in. :rocker:
I'm not going to dwell on trade up scenarios too much for right now. It's too far off. But I certainly can't see BB every being willing to "do a Ditka". He prefers to diversify too much. The most that BB has ever given up in a trade up since he took over has HC of the Pats is a 3rd round pick (2002 for Ben Watson, 2006 for Chad Jackson, and 2012 for Chandler Jones). He reportedly advised Tom Dimitroff not to make the trade up from 27 to 6 for Julio Jones in 2011. I just can't see that happening.
Other than the Nate Solder and Jerod Mayo trades, the Pats haven't had a draft pick higher than 21 since 2003. They've managed to land Pro Bowlers or All Pro players at 21 or beyond since then in Wilfork, Mankins, Gostkowski, Meriweather, Vollmer, McCourty and Gronkowski. That's basically 1/year from 2004-2011. And unless something unexpected happens next year (player trade or an unexpectedly poor finish), I would be surprised to see the Pats move up much higher than 21 again. So think in the general range of the 3rd or 4th DT taken. My biggest hope is that Kawann Short will leapfrog one of Hankins or Lotulelei - pass rushing DTs tend to go on the higher side, all things considered, and Short looks to be the best penetrating DT in the 2013 class. So I would ideally hope for something like Hankins-Short-Lotulelei, with the Pats making a modest trade up.
The good news is (1) the 2013 draft is likely to be loaded at the DT position (2) the 2013 draft is likely to be loaded with QBs and pass rushers who many teams will prioritize over DTs, (3) players slip, and (4) BB has a proven track record of finding top 10-15 talent in the bottom third of the first round. So I think that whatever they do, they should be able to find a very good DT to pair with Wilfork. Again, I'm very high on Alabama DT Jesse Williams, and Kwame Geathers could also be a solid option.