The Premium on Moving Back is 1 Round...
approximately.
But what it really is ~ again:
approximately ~ is a 50% Premium, roughly based on
The Famous Draft Value Chart, and subject to all manner of variables, including the prospective
Return On Investment of the targeted player, the
Relative Strength of the two
Draft Classes involved...and the prospects of the team paying the Premium.
No,
Coach Bill The Mad doesn't conference me in on those negotiations: I get all that from applying The Chart to past trades, many of them our own.
All that being the case, trading #33 for another team's 2012 1st Rounder ~ or a package including it ~ would involve applying about a 50% discount to their
prospective Draft position.
***
I've always found that notion amusing, because I can only imagine the conversations
Coach Bill The Great has had with previous trade partners who swapped an unknown quantity to us for a known quantity, such as the Raiders, Panthers, and Vikings, in this draft, or the vast array of trade partners in other drafts of the past!!
"That should be PLENTY, Bill. After all, I feel an 0-16 coming on. I mean, we SUCK."
"My
@$$. I thank GOD we aren't playing you this year. I fully expect to see you in the Super Bowl, where you'll probably beat us 73-0."
***
So as a starting point, if we were to trade
#33 straight up for someone's
2012 1st, we'd be looking at a team that finished this year at about
#13:
#33 being tagged at
580 points, and
#13 being tagged at about
1150 points.
Obviously, we'd want to target a team that we think is about to COLLAPSE.
In a package deal with a
2011 3rd Rounder, we might, for instance, pick up
#84, this year, and the
2012 1st Rounder of a team that finished this year at
#20 or
#21.
***
MIND you:
The Draft Value Chart is an estimator, not a rule book. Some trades go down for a Discount, relative to the Premium...And some trades go for a
Super Premium.
For instance, when we traded the Panthers
#89, last year, Fair Value ~ as it were ~ would've been the 2nd Rounder of a team that finished with #29 or so:
#89, at
145 Points, swapped for
#61, at
292 Points: the Panthers paying the usual 100% Premium for Trading Forward, which is to say they would Discount their own 2011 Pick by 50%.
By giving us the 2nd Rounder of a team ~ their own ~ that had finished #17, they coughed up the proxy for
#49, which was worth
410 Points in 2011 "Dollars", and, therefore, at a 50% Discount,
205 Points in 2010 "Dollars"...for
#89, at
145 Points in 2010 "Dollars".
Coach Bill ROOKED them!! :rocker:
* Don't mind me, gents: I wanted to save this thought, so it goes in this Thread, which I use for that purpose. 
