Yards after catch

[Deus Irae]

What I'm saying is that many statistics need a LOT of context.

Looking at the evolution of Cassel's passing stats from the start of the season through the end need to be taken with a pretty huge grain of salt.

First of all common sense would tell us that the playcalling was tailored to a short game early on - not unlike Brady in 2001.

Cassel's deep passing game looked like it left an awful lot to be desired even as of mid-season, but it seemed to me (i.e. my eyeballs) that as of November Cassel had actually turned the corner and was making a lot better throws.

Cassel, from what I saw, continued to evolve into a better, well rounded QB into December - however given the fact that there were so many foul weather games in December, the stats might not reflect that. It's kindof tough to pad your deep ball stats in 60 mph wind or driving rain - and likewise, your YAC stats are going to look a lot nicer when you throw a screen pass to Moss that gets run in for a 60 yard TD.

That doesn't mean the stats are always wrong or always lie - but when I see a discussion that's mostly stats oriented and ignores important items like early season playcalling for an inexperienced QB, and late season stats for games where the passing game was altered due to weather, I definitely default to the eyeball test.

Well, you're both correct and incorrect, IMO. The statistics are perfectly valid once you sink them into the context. On the other hand, statistics generally become much more 'accurate' as the data set increases.

And, it's not that I don't think you have a valid point, because I think the Manning v. Brady debates show pretty clearly that you do. I just think you go too far the other way when you dismiss them as lightly as you seem to do.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Well, you're both correct and incorrect, IMO. The statistics are perfectly valid once you sink them into the context. On the other hand, statistics generally become much more 'accurate' as the data set increases.

And, it's not that I don't think you have a valid point, because I think the Manning v. Brady debates show pretty clearly that you do. I just think you go too far the other way when you dismiss them as lightly as you seem to do.

I think this is a more extreme case than normal, and I don't think I'd normally dismiss the stats to the degree I do here - again because by nature, Cassel's early season stats are skewed by conservative playcalling, and his late seasons stats are skewed by extreme weather situations.

There's always external factors but not quite so extreme as we see here - and trying to demonstrate and attribute trends and compare September to December given those factors in Cassel case makes it very very difficult to draw any credible conclusions.

But overall, from watching the games, I know that I SAW Cassel develop and grow each week to a degree that really amazed me, regardless of what the stats do and don't say. The adaptations that the entire offense made in the extreme weather situations in December was really something very impressive to me - and again, I'm not sure any stat is going to quantify that.