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Yards after catch

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Miguel, Jan 8, 2009.

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  1. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I was asked in a separate thread my opinion of Cassel's worth. I contended that Cassel has greatly benefited from being on the same team as Moss and Welker. One such benefit is the yards after catch generated by his teammates.


    STATS Hosted Solution - Football - NFL - Team Leaders - Yards after Catch

    STATS Hosted Solution - Football - NFL - Team Leaders - Receiving Yards

    STATS Hosted Solution - Football - NFL - Team Leaders - Passes Dropped

    From the above I created the below table
    Team Yards YAC PCT Drops
    New England Patriots 3790 2154 56.83% 28
    Washington Redskins 3291 1699 51.63% 28
    New York Jets 3516 1808 51.42% 19
    Tennessee Titans 2902 1459 50.28% 22
    St. Louis Rams 3268 1615 49.42% 27
    Oakland Raiders 2639 1302 49.34% 25
    Chicago Bears 3229 1564 48.44% 25
    San Francisco 49ers 3724 1782 47.85% 21
    Houston Texans 4474 2134 47.70% 14
    Buffalo Bills 3302 1569 47.52% 24
    Minnesota Vikings 3217 1525 47.40% 24
    New Orleans Saints 5069 2398 47.31% 30
    Baltimore Ravens 3085 1454 47.13% 19
    Arizona Cardinals 4875 2294 47.06% 26
    Cincinnati Bengals 2677 1238 46.25% 31
    Philadelphia Eagles 4060 1876 46.21% 33
    Dallas Cowboys 3988 1831 45.91% 25
    San Diego Chargers 4009 1840 45.90% 17
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3788 1736 45.83% 32
    Cleveland Browns 2537 1136 44.78% 36
    Seattle Seahawks 2831 1251 44.19% 31
    Kansas City Chiefs 3358 1452 43.24% 22
    Indianapolis Colts 4180 1748 41.82% 30
    Miami Dolphins 3761 1566 41.64% 19
    Denver Broncos 4545 1891 41.61% 34
    Pittsburgh Steelers 3607 1498 41.53% 28
    Jacksonville Jaguars 3620 1494 41.27% 40
    Detroit Lions 3299 1353 41.01% 25
    Green Bay Packers 4044 1656 40.95% 32
    Atlanta Falcons 3440 1404 40.81% 23
    Carolina Panthers 3288 1269 38.59% 24
    New York Giants 3353 1250 37.28% 33

    114766 52246 45.52% Average Drops - 26.46875

    I have included the drops column because another poster opined that Cassel "suffered from a fairly impressive number of incompletions/INTs that were mostly the receivers' fault."
  2. ctpatsfan77

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    That would be me. :)

    But, seriously, how many yards/first downs would the Pats have picked up on those drops/tips?
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2009
  3. Deus Irae

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    1.) When your 2 main targets are Moss and Welker, 28 drops is a lot. The Texans only dropped 14 all season.

    2.) The Yac isn't surprising, and it's probably something we could see about last year, too, given the two main receivers in the mix and the type of routes the Patriots run. New England is not really big on come back routes or hooks. I think the Jets being in the top 3 in the same statistic demonstrates how the Patriots'/Jets system plans for just such a development.

    3.) I'd really like to have the numbers from last season, because I'd love to see the Brady comparison, and because that seems like a terribly low percentage for the Packers, and I'd love to see it from when Favre was there.
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2009
  4. BelichickFan

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    The other factor is Cassel was, surprisingly, amazingly effective at leading his receivers. Never - NEVER - did I expect Cassel to be so accurate in the short to medium routes. A lot of YAC are based on the receiver not having to slow down to make the catch and Cassel was tremendous at that.

    Forget the stats - use your eyes. My eyes told me Cassel was really good. The fact that the stats say he was 10th best in the league merely back up what I saw.
  5. dhamz

    dhamz Rookie

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    Cassel benefited greatly from having Moss and Welker? Do we need stats to know that? Tom Brady benefited greatly from them in 2007. Any QB alive would benefit greatly from having the best deep WR in the history of the sport and the best slot WR in the game to throw to.
  6. AndyJohnson

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    I think that the numbers tend to support your point, but I do not think they confirm it.
    There are so many variables to consider. Its a lot like QB rating, the plays that are called, and the design of your offense has a big impact.

    For example: In QB rating if QBA completes 50 of 100 for 750 yards and QB B completes 75 of 100 for 750 yards, QBB has a much higher rating, but did he play better? Is it better to have more short completions that add up to the same number of yards? Is it worse, because you may be harming your running game by never throwing the ball down the field. A good example is the 70s vs the 90s. In the 70s QBs completed 50% of their passes for around 14 yards per catch, in the 90s 60% for about 12. QBs didnt become more accurate, passing offenses changed and favored high percentage throws for less yards per throw. Better or worse?

    The same goes with these numbers. If Cassel is throwing a higher percentage of short passes his comp % goes up, and his yac % goes up. But that does not necessarily mean he is benefitting more from his receivers than other QBs (in fact it could be argued less yac is a better reflection on the receivers ability to get open down the field) or that he is not.

    To give an example: Many commentators like to describe the short passing game as a running game in disguise.
    If 2 QBs both complete 6 of 10 for 70 yards, and 30 of that is yac but, one of them adds and ADDITIONAL screen pass that is 7 yards but 10 of yac, he did the exact same job as the other guy but ALSO added 1/1 for 7 yards and 10 more yac. In this stat example above he is now 50% yac while the other guy is 43%.

    I'm not saying that is exactly what happened with Cassel.
    I think that overall your contention that Cassel benefitted from the receievers is of course absolutely correct, but I don't think these numbers are proof.

    In the end, IMO, the QBs job is to move the team and get it in the end zone.
    Personally, I think the results in those areas mean 1000 times more than the factors that influenced them.
  7. Funktopus

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    Wouldn't tactics like the bubble screen influence opportunity to achieve high YAC?

    Would it be fair to argue that the Pats deploy personnel in such a way that it would intensify their ability to pick up yards after the catch more so than other teams?
  8. Miguel

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    Advanced NFL Stats: Week 15 QB Ratings Adjusted for Pass Defense
  9. Miguel

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  10. AndyJohnson

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    I also want to add that the OP referenced Cassels "WORTH".

    I think the most vital criteria of his worth is how he carried out the offense as he was instructed to run it. And I tihnk he did it very well.

    Great example: Drew Bledsoe vs Matt Cassel.
    Cassel carried out the system the way it was designed, while Bledsoe did not. Bledsoe was widely recognized (as described in the Education of a Coach) as passing on the underneath throw that the system said to take to look for the deep ball, then when he came back to the underneath throw it was no longer there. THAT characteristic of Bledose, IMO, was not a big play mentality but a lack of accountability to do his job as directed, and it hurt him his entire post-Patriot career.
    I would say as of the moment that I think Cassel, regardless of what system he is in and what weapons he has, will have a more successful post-Patriot career than Bledsoe did. Bledsoe had much more talent if you exclude discpline as a talent or detraction from talent, but when you include it, I'd take Cassel. (And I could care less about yardage totals or stats comparing the 2, just success of their teams)
  11. BelichickFan

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    I don't have YAC for Brady but ESPN does provide stats based on the length of throw. This is the actual throw length not including YAC. If the theory is that Cassel is nothing but a dink and dunk passer, his length of pass should be far lower.

    In 2007 Brady had :

    Behind the line : 13%
    1-10 yards : 54%
    11-20 yards : 21%
    21-30 yards : 7%
    31-41 yards : 2%
    41+ yards : 3%

    In 2007 Cassel had :

    Behind the line : 18%
    1-10 yards : 52%
    11-20 yards : 22%
    21-30 yards : 3%
    31-41 yards : 2%
    41+ yards : 1%

    1-20 yards are basically identical. The difference is Cassel threw a few more behind the line whereas Brady threw a few more in the 21+ range. It's not a huge difference, though, the raw numbers behind the line are 77 for Brady and 95 for Cassel which is about 1.5 per game. For completions of passes thrown over 21 yards, Brady had 28 and Cassel had 8 - a huge percentage difference but still just a little more than 1 per game. It seems hard to believe Brady completed less than 2 passes per game last year that were thrown over 20 yards but he completed just 28. While Cassel threw a little shorter than Brady the reality is all QB throw mostly short. Also Brady had Stallworth who was a good deep threat.
  12. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In 2006 Brady's YAC % was 49%
    In 2007 Brady's YAC% was 42%
    In 2008 Cassel's YAC% was 57%
  13. Deus Irae

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    Thanks..... That's a huge difference for the Packers from last season to this one. That's at least part of what was missing in Green Bay this season, and that's why the basic numbers can sometimes be so deceiving.
  14. AndyJohnson

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    I think they present better in that format.
    But lets recognize that using yards thrown per attempt makes the difference less than 2 yards a pass.
    IT really should be per complete, because the numbers dont show the length of the incomplete pass, but 2 yards difference for the entire league is hardly earth shattering.
    Its not like Casell is completing 2 yard passes and the other QBs are throwing it 20, 30 and 50.
  15. BelichickFan

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    I trust my eyes more than the stats and point out that this can also be just part of Cassel's decision making rather than ability in addition to how this changed over the course of the season.

    Like the rest of you, I saw every pass he threw this season and can say unequicocable that he throws a really good ball up to about 25 yards. Plenty hard and extremely accurate. His deep balls were poor. But he threw several good ones showing that he can do it. I have a feeling that instead of relaxing when he had an open WR downfield, he got excited and messed up his throw. This would improve over time. As opposed to the quicker passes with tight coverage where he'd just have to throw it in without the time to react emotionally.

    Are these numbers to do playcalling, choice, ability, personality ? It doesn't matter to me. I know that when Cassel had to throw 25 or less I was supremely confident he could get the job done because my eyes told me that. These stats are interesting - but certainly not definitive.
  16. AndyJohnson

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    But isnt the difference in that the ADDITIONAL deep passes that Brady completed, but Cassel did not?
    Theoretically they ran all the same plays, but Brady was able to complete the long throws adding a lot of passing yards and very little yac skewing the %.

    I think the issue is not the majority of the plays being any different, its that Brady added an extra facet that Cassel did not, and using these types of numers misrepresents that.
  17. AndyJohnson

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    Agree.
    If 2 QBs are both 20-30-200 with 100 yac.
    The first QB throws a 50 yard TD pass into the end zone.
    The second answers with a 50 yard screen completed 5 yards behind the los.

    First QB has 250 with 100 yac 40%
    Second QB has 250 with 155 yac 62.5%
    Those stats tell a different story, IMO, than 1 different play.
  18. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Let's also consider that putting the ball in the right area for the receivers to run from and create those yards after the catch is

    1. effective play calling,
    2. very good blocking, &
    3. smart and efficient use of the team's strength.
  19. Miguel

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    FYI - I do use my eyes.
  20. ALP

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    i would imagine the extra screen passes acount for that differece...
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