Yankees Say their offer for Santana is the best?

[BelichickFan]

How many talented 24 year old lefthanders are there in the majors today who have calmly and cooly, started and won a World Series clinching game? Answer: 1 (Jon Lester). So when the Sox offer a deal which includes Crisp, Lester, Lowrie plus another, it is not crap.

You can debate a single game all you like but his career numbers aren't very good. He's young and has a lot of experience for his age. But he needs a season with good numbers soon.

 

[Real World]

A great pitching prospect, coming off of a great season, had a so-so year and suffered injuries. He only threw 73 innings, so he'll have the same innings limit next year. I don't see how 2007 can be chalked up as anything but a disappointment for Hughes. His 2006 was out-of-this-world, and his 2007 doesn't mean he can't have a great 2008. I just don't see why you can't admit his 2007 was a bad year.

Maybe because it wasn't? Again, this kid wasn't even supposed to see the majors this season, so the fact that he saw them before anticipated, and performed adequately despite injury, simply can't be seen as a disappointment. I think the 73 innings and 13 starts around injury, in a penant race, are far more beneficial than another season dominating AAA. If you think his season was less than ideal, then fine, you'd like to see him be injury free, and hit his innings limit, but the kid turned 21 during the season, and wasn't supposed to see the majors, save for a possibly september call up. I know though, it's the Yankees, so it has to be bad.

If it helps, I'll admit that Coco somehow got even worse defensively and that Daniel Bard looks like he'll never pitch in the majors. It's ok, not everything needs to be spun as sunshine and roses.



But he has a great eye/approach/patience/whatever, a tool ignored by the 5-tool method (yet more important than most of them). And one of his tools (speed) is exceptional. If you aren't going to good at everything it really helps to be great at one thing. Ellsbury's speed qualifies.

Melky is a 4th outfielder forced to start because of injuries and no better options. His OPS last year was .718. His offense was as bad as Coco Crisp's, who at least had stellar defense to fall back on (and I think Crisp is an awful player, at least on the Sox). Ellsbury should only be mentioned in the same sentence as Melky if the words "is much better than" are in there.

Sheesh, talk about buying into your team's/fan base's hype.

You obviously don't follow much of anything outside of your favorite team. Melky has started in the majors the last 2 years at age 21 & 22. He was hitting .385 in triple A when he was rushed to the pros. He's got arguably the best arm in all of baseball, and certainly the best hose in CF. You don't run on Cabrera, period. No first to third, scoring on any flyball, or being guaranteed home on a singe. There is more to defense than making a diving catch you know. The kid is learning on the job in the pros. He's 5+ years younger than Crisp & younger than Ellsbury. He's going to get better whereas Coco is what he is. Again, this isn't really complicated to understand. The drop off from a proven 23 year old CF in Cabrera, to Ellsbury, is not nearly as drastic as the difference between Hughes, and the assorted players the Sox are offering. This isn't about each individual player versus the other, it is about the overall quality of the packages being offered. The Twins might like Ellsbury better, but they don't like him more than the difference between packages. In essence, Ellsbury could be another Scott Posednik, Coco Crisp, Corey Patterson, Will Taveras, etc. A really speedy guy who slaps the ball around, steals bases, and shags em in CF.

 

[Real World]

Well if you want to take overall quality that still doesn't give NYY an obvious advantage. John Sickels, an authority on milb prospects, ranks Ellsbury an A-, Lowrie an A-, and Masterson a B. Only Marquez is ranked for NYY (as he is the only minor leaguer in their offer) and is ranked a C+. So assuming Hughes is an A (his ranking last year) and Cabrera a B, the two packages consist of A-, A-, B and A, B, C+. That doesn't look like one offer is clearly better than the other in terms of overall quality. Even if you deem Cabrera as only a "little drop off" from Ellsbury and give him a B+, the packages are still pretty even.

Baseball Prospectus ranks Ellsbury a 5 star player, and Lowrie and Masterson 4 star players. Marquez isn't on the list of top 11 NYY prospects, but the list ends with 2 star prospects so I'll give him that. If Hughes is a 5-star and Cabrera a 4-star (a stretch), then they would deem Bostons offer superior to NYYs (5,4,4 > 5,4,2).

I know you disagree, but one of the most respected milb talent evaluators and one of the most respected baseball analysis sites says that the two packages are very comparable.

Marquez is ranked 7th by BA in the Yankees top 10. What you have to understand is that rankings don't illustrate the value of different prospects from different positions. An Ellsbury is no where near as valuable as a Hughes for example. I don't say this because I think any of the names mentioned stink. I say this because it's simply common sense. The Yankees list with Hughes is better than anything the Sox have offered. That could always change of course.

Let's put it this way, Alex Gordon and Cameron Maybin are also 5 star prospects, as is Evan Longoria. Is Ellsbury better than any of those players? Nope.

 

[Real World]

You can debate a single game all you like but his career numbers aren't very good. He's young and has a lot of experience for his age. But he needs a season with good numbers soon.

His WHIP is awful and he lacks command. He's got good stuff, but he can't put it where he wants to, or can't pitch more than 5 innings, without getting to high a pitch count. He could be very good, but command is key. Pointing to one game against a terrible team in a 3-0 WS doesn't do much to change an aquiring teams previous views. People who point to that game tend to be the same people who site his win loss record, which is another virtually useless statistic when determining a pitchers quality. If they didn't like him before, they didn't like him after either, and vice versa. He's not as valuable a prospect as Buckholz, who has very good command, more velocity, and a better aray of pitches.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Maybe because it wasn't? Again, this kid wasn't even supposed to see the majors this season, so the fact that he saw them before anticipated, and performed adequately despite injury, simply can't be seen as a disappointment. I think the 73 innings and 13 starts around injury, in a penant race, are far more beneficial than another season dominating AAA. If you think his season was less than ideal, then fine, you'd like to see him be injury free, and hit his innings limit, but the kid turned 21 during the season, and wasn't supposed to see the majors, save for a possibly september call up. I know though, it's the Yankees, so it has to be bad.

Whatever. Injured and ineffective can now count as a productive season. We're setting the bar extremely low.

You obviously don't follow much of anything outside of your favorite team. Melky has started in the majors the last 2 years at age 21 & 22. He was hitting .385 in triple A when he was rushed to the pros. He's got arguably the best arm in all of baseball, and certainly the best hose in CF. You don't run on Cabrera, period. No first to third, scoring on any flyball, or being guaranteed home on a singe. There is more to defense than making a diving catch you know. The kid is learning on the job in the pros. He's 5+ years younger than Crisp & younger than Ellsbury. He's going to get better whereas Coco is what he is. Again, this isn't really complicated to understand. The drop off from a proven 23 year old CF in Cabrera, to Ellsbury, is not nearly as drastic as the difference between Hughes, and the assorted players the Sox are offering. This isn't about each individual player versus the other, it is about the overall quality of the packages being offered. The Twins might like Ellsbury better, but they don't like him more than the difference between packages. In essence, Ellsbury could be another Scott Posednik, Coco Crisp, Corey Patterson, Will Taveras, etc. A really speedy guy who slaps the ball around, steals bases, and shags em in CF.

Or maybe I live in NY and watched a lot of Yankees games because I didn't get extra innings last year. Oh, and because they're my team's biggest rival or something.

Melky is young, yes. I don't see why you can just assume he'll get much better simply because he ages. In 1400 ml ABs his OPS was .769. In 1000 ML ABs his OPS is .728. He regressed offensively last year. Excuse me if i'm just not seeing it.

And yes, he has a great arm. Arm also happens to be the least important tool out there for position players (especially CFs). It's a nice plus, but hardly compensates for being a liability offensively.

Melky has proven he can play in the majors, yet he's also proven he can't play very well. I don't see how this is a positive.

 

[Foley]

Marquez is ranked 7th by BA in the Yankees top 10. What you have to understand is that rankings don't illustrate the value of different prospects from different positions. An Ellsbury is no where near as valuable as a Hughes for example. I don't say this because I think any of the names mentioned stink. I say this because it's simply common sense. The Yankees list with Hughes is better than anything the Sox have offered. That could always change of course.

Let's put it this way, Alex Gordon and Cameron Maybin are also 5 star prospects, as is Evan Longoria. Is Ellsbury better than any of those players? Nope.

Who said he was better? And while it may be common sense that Hughes is more valuable Ellsbury, the rest of the package in Cabrera and Marquez is inferior to Lowrie and Masterson according to any reputable site that has an opinion on the matter. Hughes may be more valuable than Ellsbury, but does his additional value overshadow the obvious shortcomings in the rest of the package? And this is without the fact there will probably be a 4th player in each deal, with the Red Sox apparently discussing guys like Bowden (3 star, B) or Kalish (4 star, B) and NYY apparently discussing guys like Kei Igawa or Mitch Hilligoss (unranked, C). I'll grant you Hughes is more valuable than Ellsbury (despite the Twins apparent preference for Ellsbury), but every part of the Boston package is considered better by a number of different sources. Even if Hughes is #1, and Ellsbury #13 (his milb.com ranking), that gap is closed considerably when you look at the rest of the package. I'm not saying that Bostons offer is superior or preferred by the Twins, but when you factor in the rest of the package, and you factor in their apparent preference towards Ellsbury, the fact that Hughes has more value than Ellsbury doesn't make the NYY offer clearly better.

 

[groundgame]

You can debate a single game all you like but his career numbers aren't very good. He's young and has a lot of experience for his age. But he needs a season with good numbers soon.

Given the magnitude of the game, you cannot discount a WS cliching game watched by 50 million people as merely another single game. He does need another season, but his World Series performance puts him no question above Hughes from a value point of comparison one-on-one.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Given the magnitude of the game, you cannot discount a WS cliching game watched by 50 million people as merely another single game. He does need another season, but his World Series performance puts him no question above Hughes from a value point of comparison one-on-one.

Um, no it doesn't. It was one game. Hughes had a no-hitter through 7 or so innings. Lester has never had a game that good.

Besides, they were up 3-0. Only one team has ever blown a 3-0 series lead (in case anyone has forgotten, the 2004 Yankees ). There wasn't nearly as much pressure in that game as you're trying to convey.

End this with the fact that neither has done a lot in the pros, while Hughes was a better prospect (and is less removed from his prospect days) and I think it's a slam-dunk in favor of Hughes.

Then again, your opinion is no worse than someone who thinks Melky compares favorably to Ellsbury, Hughes didn't have a disappointing season last year, and a ml middle infielder with an OPS a little below .900 in his first year above A ball is garbage.

 

[Real World]

Whatever. Injured and ineffective can now count as a productive season. We're setting the bar extremely low.



Or maybe I live in NY and watched a lot of Yankees games because I didn't get extra innings last year. Oh, and because they're my team's biggest rival or something.

Melky is young, yes. I don't see why you can just assume he'll get much better simply because he ages. In 1400 ml ABs his OPS was .769. In 1000 ML ABs his OPS is .728. He regressed offensively last year. Excuse me if i'm just not seeing it.

And yes, he has a great arm. Arm also happens to be the least important tool out there for position players (especially CFs). It's a nice plus, but hardly compensates for being a liability offensively.

Melky has proven he can play in the majors, yet he's also proven he can't play very well. I don't see how this is a positive.

You said Hughes season was a disapointment, and I said it wasn't. Now your trying to put words in my mouth. If you think his season was a loss, then that's your perogative. I don't think 13 starts from a 21 year old who wasn't supposed to see the majors this year is a lost year. The kid had an excellent stretch run in september, and pitched great in his post season outing. That is all part of his maturation process. If he missed the year, then you'd have a point.

Melky might never get better. The bottom line is that the kid has never played a full season of double, or tripple A. He plays in the toughest market in the country, and has performed adequately. If you followed the Yankees, you'd see he ran out of gas in september which hurt his average. My point isn't that Melky is great. The point is about the difference between the packages, or lists if you prefer. A Hughes Melky + list is simply worth more than the Ellsbury list, for reasons I've mentioned.

BTW, Melky has shown he's at least as good as Coco, only he's 5+ years younger.

 

[Real World]

Who said he was better? And while it may be common sense that Hughes is more valuable Ellsbury, the rest of the package in Cabrera and Marquez is inferior to Lowrie and Masterson according to any reputable site that has an opinion on the matter. Hughes may be more valuable than Ellsbury, but does his additional value overshadow the obvious shortcomings in the rest of the package? And this is without the fact there will probably be a 4th player in each deal, with the Red Sox apparently discussing guys like Bowden (3 star, B) or Kalish (4 star, B) and NYY apparently discussing guys like Kei Igawa or Mitch Hilligoss (unranked, C). I'll grant you Hughes is more valuable than Ellsbury (despite the Twins apparent preference for Ellsbury), but every part of the Boston package is considered better by a number of different sources. Even if Hughes is #1, and Ellsbury #13 (his milb.com ranking), that gap is closed considerably when you look at the rest of the package. I'm not saying that Bostons offer is superior or preferred by the Twins, but when you factor in the rest of the package, and you factor in their apparent preference towards Ellsbury, the fact that Hughes has more value than Ellsbury doesn't make the NYY offer clearly better.

You have your views, I have mine. The bottom line is that if the Twins felt the Sox deal was better than the Yanks list headlined by Hughes, the deal would have already happened. It didn't though.

 

[Real World]

Then again, your opinion is no worse than someone who thinks Melky compares favorably to Ellsbury, Hughes didn't have a disappointing season last year, and a ml middle infielder with an OPS a little below .900 in his first year above A ball is garbage.

You really need to learn how to read. I didn't say Melky compares favorably, I said the difference isn't as drastic with respect to Hughes and the other names on the Sox list.

 

[Real World]

Given the magnitude of the game, you cannot discount a WS cliching game watched by 50 million people as merely another single game. He does need another season, but his World Series performance puts him no question above Hughes from a value point of comparison one-on-one.

You're right.

50 million people watched that game.

 

[Foley]

You have your views, I have mine. The bottom line is that if the Twins felt the Sox deal was better than the Yanks list headlined by Hughes, the deal would have already happened. It didn't though.

No, the bottom line is that they don't like either deal enough to accept. Even if they view one deal as miles better than the other, it still isn't good enough.

And the newest reports out of Minnesota claim that the Twins aren't convinced Cabrera would be much of a hitter outside of the NYY lineup. Hughes is apparently the only guy in the offer they are really interested in. They do, however, like Lowrie.

 

[Real World]

No, the bottom line is that they don't like either deal enough to accept. Even if they view one deal as miles better than the other, it still isn't good enough.

And the newest reports out of Minnesota claim that the Twins aren't convinced Cabrera would be much of a hitter outside of the NYY lineup. Hughes is apparently the only guy in the offer they are really interested in. They do, however, like Lowrie.

December 27, 2007
Twins Lower Asking Price For Johan Santana
It's taken quite some time, but the Minnesota Twins have finally backed off their extremely high demands for starting pitcher Johan Santana. And while the price is still relatively steep, it has become a bit more bearable.

According to Murray Chass of the New York Times, Twins GM Billy Smith has decided that he would allow the New York Yankees to substitute minor league pitcher Jeffrey Marquez for Ian Kennedy in a package for the former Cy Young award winner. However, Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera would still be required to get the deal done.

When you go back to a team, and lower your demands for a package, that means that the deal is enough. Part of my job is lease negotiation, and when something like that happens, it means that needs have been satisfied.


The newest reports have the Mets sealing it if they include Fernando Martinez, with the 4 other players we've already heard mentioned. Personally I hope he goes there, if he goes anywhere, so the Yanks don't give up Hughes, and the Sox don't get him. The Twins should have taken Hughes when they had the chance, as they won't get a pitcher of his caliber from anyone. The Mets deal is a bunch of decent prospects with limited ceilings. You never know with prospects though.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

So if Murray Chass makes it up it is true? First off he's a hack, second he's just telling us what the Yankees are putting out there through him. He has no clue what is going on in Minnesota. All that we know is that Minnesota isn't ready to settle for whatever the Sox and Yanks are offering (and yes, that includes the offer of Hughes, Melky, and junk).

On another note, here's a chat with Baseball America's Jim Callis from yesterday. The excerpted parts relate to this thread:
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=18747

Bill (Berkeley): What kind of projection do you have for Jed Lowrie. A lot of articles I've been reading lately seem to indicate that he could be the starting SS for the Twins next year, assuming the Santana deal goes through.

Jim Callis: That's fair. Lowrie will hit better than most shortstops and get the job done on defense.

Keith (NJ): so then who is the potential star with Lester, and Lowrie? And if the Red Sox dont include Bucholtz, why should the Yankees need to include Hughes?

Jim Callis: That's a good question. And that's probably why rumors are that the Twins prefer an Ellsbury-fronted package. I'd rather have Hughes than Ellsbury. But I'd rather have Ellsbury (or Lester) plus Lowrie, Masterson, Kalish or the other various incarnations than the Yankees' packages.

raymagnetic (Bronx, NY): Jim, I'm confused, from the Yankees you want someone who's a star player but you are okay with the Red Sox package headed by Lester or Ellsbury that doesn't include a potential star. Do you see why I'm confused?

Jim Callis: No. Ellsbury is a potential star.

Andrew (Centereach, NY): Why are the yankee fans so upset with what the sox are offering?

Jim Callis: Because Yankees fans feel their prospects are so much better than everyone else's, more so than any fans of any other team do about their own prospects. You should see the emails I get.

 

[Foley]

December 27, 2007
Twins Lower Asking Price For Johan Santana
It's taken quite some time, but the Minnesota Twins have finally backed off their extremely high demands for starting pitcher Johan Santana. And while the price is still relatively steep, it has become a bit more bearable.

According to Murray Chass of the New York Times, Twins GM Billy Smith has decided that he would allow the New York Yankees to substitute minor league pitcher Jeffrey Marquez for Ian Kennedy in a package for the former Cy Young award winner. However, Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera would still be required to get the deal done.

When you go back to a team, and lower your demands for a package, that means that the deal is enough. Part of my job is lease negotiation, and when something like that happens, it means that needs have been satisfied.


The newest reports have the Mets sealing it if they include Fernando Martinez, with the 4 other players we've already heard mentioned. Personally I hope he goes there, if he goes anywhere, so the Yanks don't give up Hughes, and the Sox don't get him. The Twins should have taken Hughes when they had the chance, as they won't get a pitcher of his caliber from anyone. The Mets deal is a bunch of decent prospects with limited ceilings. You never know with prospects though.

The article just says they're no longer demanding both Kennedy and Hughes. It nowhere states they'd accept the Hughes/Cabrera/Marquez offer, just that they are no longer demanding the two together.

And regardless, more recent news, published by a source not so inclined to make the NYY offer look greater, says that the Twins haven't accepted the Hughes offer because they don't like anyone in the offer other than Hughes. You can't just brush off and discount the fact that all the other information points in the other direction.

 

[Real World]

So if Murray Chass makes it up it is true? First off he's a hack, second he's just telling us what the Yankees are putting out there through him. He has no clue what is going on in Minnesota. All that we know is that Minnesota isn't ready to settle for whatever the Sox and Yanks are offering (and yes, that includes the offer of Hughes, Melky, and junk).

On another note, here's a chat with Baseball America's Jim Callis from yesterday. The excerpted parts relate to this thread:
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=18747

Wow, so I guess if Jim Callis says it, it's true? I guess time will tell on how these players end up.

 

[Real World]

The article just says they're no longer demanding both Kennedy and Hughes. It nowhere states they'd accept the Hughes/Cabrera/Marquez offer, just that they are no longer demanding the two together.

And regardless, more recent news, published by a source not so inclined to make the NYY offer look greater, says that the Twins haven't accepted the Hughes offer because they don't like anyone in the offer other than Hughes. You can't just brush off and discount the fact that all the other information points in the other direction.

The Yankees, after agreeing to include Hughes, whom they hadn't included at the start, pulled their Hughes package when the Twins demanded Kennedy to. It's not complicated. Hughes wasn't being dealt anymore, and that's when the Twins said they'd substitute Marquez for Kennedy. At that point, the Yankees, led by Cashman, had reconsidered involving Hughes altogether. IMO, they were smart to do so. This really isn't complicated fellas. It's no knock on anyone, or anything, and with that, I bid you both adieu.

 

[Foley]

The Yankees, after agreeing to include Hughes, whom they hadn't included at the start, pulled their Hughes package when the Twins demanded Kennedy to. It's not complicated. Hughes wasn't being dealt anymore, and that's when the Twins said they'd substitute Marquez for Kennedy. At that point, the Yankees, led by Cashman, had reconsidered involving Hughes altogether. IMO, they were smart to do so. This really isn't complicated fellas. It's no knock on anyone, or anything, and with that, I bid you both adieu.

They said they'd no longer demand Kennedy if Marquez was in the deal. Not that they'd accept the deal.

But if you want to discount John Sickels, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, reports that says the Twins prefer Ellsbury, reports that say the Twins aren't that thrilled with Cabrera and like Lowrie and Jim Callis saying that the Sox offer is better, then go ahead. Loosely interpreted Murray Chass articles apparently trump every other source in the baseball world.

 

[Real World]

They said they'd no longer demand Kennedy if Marquez was in the deal. Not that they'd accept the deal.

But if you want to discount John Sickels, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, reports that says the Twins prefer Ellsbury, reports that say the Twins aren't that thrilled with Cabrera and like Lowrie and Jim Callis saying that the Sox offer is better, then go ahead. Loosely interpreted Murray Chass articles apparently trump every other source in the baseball world.

Sheesh. It's called english. They may very well prefer Ellsbury, I've said that. The whole point is not about the individual player, it's about the value of the specific lists. I know, this is Sox country, and heaven forbid I speak objectively. It's not complicated guys. The Twins have arms in their system, and lack positional players. That's why they like Lowrie and Ellsbury. That's nothing I haven't said, or don't understand. However, when the Yankees blinked and inserted Hughes into the equation, it made the Yankees package better. The Twins, even though they need a CF & middle infielder more, can't ignore the value of Hughes. That isn't a knock on Lowrie, or Ellsbury, etc. It simply is what it is. Hughes is, hands down, the best player being offered for Santana.