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Yankees Say their offer for Santana is the best?

Discussion in 'Red Sox Fan Forum' started by patsfanofNC12, Jan 4, 2008.

  1. patsfanofNC12

    patsfanofNC12 Rookie

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    They are claiming that their offer for Santana is better than any other offer. Are they high or something? Their offer could never beat the sox offers.
  2. Real World

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    Their offer is better as long as it involves Hughes. Phil Hughes is the best player offered in any deal. He is/was, depending on how you look at it, the best pitching prospect in baseball. Lester doesn't compare to Hughes.
  3. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat Rookie

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    Is there a source for this? It's just nice to see what exactly is said.

    Something important to remember when comparing the deals is that Boston is offering a middle infielder who can start for Minnesota cheaply for the next 6 years. Everyone seems to be ignoring that. Lowrie is in the top 5 prospects of a top 5 system and he's treated like a chump. He's even ready to play next year.

    That's debatable. There were reports that the Twins valued Ellsbury more than Hughes. They have pitching prospects and a big hole in center. They also might value the fact that position players are much more reliable than pitching prospects. Hughes (and any pitching prospect including Buchholz and Chamberlain) could get hurt and their flameout rate is much higher than that of position players.
  4. Real World

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    Lowrie is overrated. He's a mediocre fielder who can't play short, and doesn't have enough pop for 3rd. He won't play anywhere but 2nd base, which is the least important position on the field.

    If the Sox deal was better than the Yankees deal, then why haven't the Twins pulled the trigger? They haven't because it's not really that good a deal. The Twins got greedy when the Yankees decided to include Hughes, and demanded Kennedy also, and that's when the Yanks wisely said no. Now the Twins are willing to take Marquez instead of IPK, but the Yanks have reconsidered dealing Hughes. All of this is a matter of opinion of course.
  5. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat Rookie

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    I didn't realize we had a Jed Lowrie expert on Patsfans. Even if he's just a 2B there's no reason to say he's mediocre there, or to say that 2B suddenly doesn't matter. And his defense has obviously improved because last year no one said he could play SS in the pros, while now some people say he could be adequate there.

    He isn't toolsy, but didn't Pedroia teach us anything? Sometimes good pitch selection, a .300 average, and doubles power is enough. He OPSed .911 and .862 in portland and pawtucket last year, his first year above A ball. That's great from a middle infielder.

    And if Lowrie is so bad why don't the Yankees have a single guy like him to offer Minnesota?

    I'm not saying Boston's offer should be accepted immediatey, though I will say that the fact it hasn't been accepted doesn't mean NY's is better. That makes no sense. Why hasn't NY's been accepted then? Minnesota isn't happy with either offer, and we have no real idea which one they like more.
  6. rbreg7

    rbreg7 Rookie

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    Lowrie is touted the same way Pedroia was coming out of the minor leagues, IMO. I think this is all smoke coming from the Yankees, and I don't really see them landing Santana. Then again, I don't see the Red Sox pulling the trigger either. Maybe he'll end up on the Mets? I think I would be alright with that.
  7. Real World

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    So the fact that the Yankees don't have a middle infield prospect about AA means that Lowrie is good? :rolleyes: I see though, my opinion of Lowrie is sarcastically criticized with an "expert" comment, but everyone else's isn't. :rolleyes: If you read all the scouting reports about prospects, and not just the one's from your favorite teams brown nosing sites, you'll get a much more realistic view of a prospects potential. I do it all the time with Yankees prospects, or with any names that are mentioned in a Yankees trade. It's about being objective. Fans tend to massively overrate the value of their teams prospects, while diminishing the value of everyone else's. I try not to do that. If I listen to the yahoo's in the Yankees forums I post in, I'd think some A ball guy who throws 87 mph, or some 26 year old tearing up the GCL, is going to be a HOF. Think of all the "can't miss untouchables" you've read about over the years, and how many have actually panned out. Not many. Lowrie might be fantastic, but from what I've read, he'll be an average2B in the majors, and won't have much pop.


    If Lowrie & Co. are so good why haven't the Twins accepted the Sox offer? The bottom line is that the Twins want as much as they can get, and so far the only team that has moved on their original deal is the Yankees. They were reluctant to include Hughes from the go, and then caved. When the Yankees blinked, the Twins felt they could squeeze more, and asked for Kennedy too. That prompted the Yankees to pull back Hughes. So the best player offered the Twins for Santana was on, and is now off the table, and the Twins haven't made a deal with the Sox inspite of that, why? Clearly that is because the Yankees deal with Hughes is better than what the Sox are offering. It's not complicated. The fact that the Twins went back to the Yankees and told them they were willing to accept Jeff Marquez instead of Kennedy, reinforces that. They view Hughes, and the Yanks offer, as better than what the Sox are offering.
  8. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Of the offers I've read about, the Red Sox' offer is crap. The Sox have a great deal to offer if they went the Ellsbury/Bucholtz route but all this Lester, Lowrie stuff is crap IMO.
  9. Foley

    Foley Rookie

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    And have you read recent scouting reports on Lowrie? Or are you just going on year old information? Because most reports published during or after this season says that he has vastly improved his defense over the past year and can play SS just fine.
    Baseball America
    Baseball America
    Rotoworld
    Baseball prospectus

    And even though his .896OPS would have been good for best in the AL for a middle infielder last season, I'll gladly post several scouting reports about his offense if you'd like.
    So the reports that Minnesota prefers Ellsbury to Hughes are just wrong then? Logically it makes sense that they'd prefer Hughes to Ellsbury, but there are reports of the contrary (here) and none that implicitly state they prefer Hughes. You can reject the information you don't like and embrace the information that you agree with, but the fact is that neither you or I know what they prefer, and saying that they definitely prefer package X over package Y is silly.
  10. groundgame

    groundgame Rookie

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    How many talented 24 year old lefthanders are there in the majors today who have calmly and cooly, started and won a World Series clinching game? Answer: 1 (Jon Lester). So when the Sox offer a deal which includes Crisp, Lester, Lowrie plus another, it is not crap.
  11. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat Rookie

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    Foley, thank you. You defended me much better than I could.
  12. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    All of this is opinion. I thought that was obvious. I'm merely stating my opinion, which is the opinion of many. The Sox offers have not changed. The lists are the same, and are readily available to the Twins as soon as they say yes. So,If they preffer Ellsbury, then why haven't they accepted the Ellsbury list? Cuz it's not that good, that's why. I know how wonderful Ellsbury did here, but he's not as valuable a player as Hughes. Ellsbury isn't a 5 tool guy, and Hughes is/was the best pitching prospect in all of baseball.
  13. Foley

    Foley Rookie

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    Your opinion is based on the assumption that the Twins prefer Hughes to Ellsbury, which is something that is reportedly not the case. So until I see otherwise, I'm going to believe reports that say the Twins prefer Ellsbury as opposed to the assumption that they should prefer Hughes.

    They haven't accepted the Ellsbury offer because they still want more. Just as they didn't accept the Hughes offer because they wanted more. And if Hughes is off the table like you suggest then why is there a question about which offer is better? Either the Yankees are offering Hughes, or the Red Sox offer is clearly superior.
  14. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat Rookie

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    Since we're giving opinion full validity here, Hughes never was the best pitching prospect in baseball. Homer Bailey was a better prospect at this time last year. It is also worth noting that Hughes had a disappointing year and his status as a prospect last year means nothing.

    Do you not understand that the Twins simply want more? They may eventually settle for one of the Boston or NY offers, but they first want to give everyone a chance to top them. They want more from the Sox and they want more from the Yankees. How this proves the Yankees offer is better is beyond me.

    And your opinion on Lowrie isn't valid if it is poorly informed and biased (and I don't care how many Yankees fans agree). Foley could actually back up the fact that Lowrie's defense has improved and that his offense has been superb in the minors.

    And a last thought, Derek Jeter isn't a 5 tool player either. Does it really matter that Ellsbury lacks power and an arm?
  15. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    Homer Bailey may have been at some point, but Hughes was at the end of last year. Never the less, let's say he was #2, was Ellsbury ever #2, or close to it? I don't think so. Hughes' disappointing year, if you call it that (check out his final or so starts) was largely due to the fact that he tore his hamstring, and then suffered a severe anke sprain. He was never healthy until near the end. That's why his command was off, as was his velocity.

    I absoultely understand that the Twins want more. Here's what you can't seem to grasp though, the Twins asked for Hughes, the Yanks blinked and insterted him, they then said Hughes & Kennedy, the Yanks said no, and that Hughes was then off the table, where which the Twins came back and said give us Marquez instead of Kennedy and we have a deal. The Yanks refused, as the Twins greediness gave them pause about Hughes' availability. It's not all that complicated to understand.

    Whatever you say bud. I read all the same reports and pages that everybody else does. Do an internet chat with some of the regular pundits and see what they say about different prospects and players. All of them have different views. From all that I've read, Lowrie, while a very nice prospect, isn't the type of player that pushes you to make a deal a guy for an ace like Johan Santana. If he's Pedroia defensively, he isn't sniffing SS in the majors. 2B is the least important position on the field. I'm not saying Lowrie stinks, I'm merely saying he isn't as desirable a prospect as people around here are led to believe. Yankees fans do the same thing with some of their prospects. They always think they're better than they actually are.

    Jeter is one of the best SS in all of baseball & a HOF. You're trying to compare a SS to an OF. :rofl: Ellsbury could be a better Coco Crisp for all we know, or maybe he could be Johnny Damon. Either way, you take a prospect like Hughes over an Ellsbury. Pitching wins, and in today's league, it's the single most valuable resource with respect to availability and cost. When guys like Silva are getting close to $50 million over 4 years, 5 years of Hughes is incredibly valuable.
  16. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat Rookie

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    Huh? Bailey's value was at its highest at the end of 2006 / beginning of 2007, just like Hughes. They were considered the consensus top 2 pitching prospects.

    I understand why Hughes's 2007 was disappointing, and the fact he suffered leg injuries (rather than arm/shoulder ones) makes it not much of a concern. You cannot deny that it was a disappointing, lost season though.

    And no, Ellsbury has never been a top positional prospect. Of course, many people will take a positional prospect (especially at a position of need) over a pitching prospect because of likelihood of panning out. Give me five pitching prospects and I can feel good that two might pan out. Give me one (with an arm injury in his past, no less) and I might not feel so good about it.

    First off, we don't really know anything. We think we know from reports but there is misinformation out there (along with front offices changing their mind during the process). The only people who know if Hughes is even on the table anymore are in the NY and Minnesota front offices.

    What about Minnesota demanding Ellsbury and Boston eventually offering him? How is that different from the Yankees giving in on Hughes? Rumors from Red Sox land were that Minnesota then demanded Ryan Kalish on top of Ellsbury. It seems like Minnesota simply wants more from either team.

    I never said Lowrie was a stud prospect. What I said was that he was being ignored as an aspect of Boston's offer. I said that the reports were that his defense had improved, and I pointed out his minor league OPS. I said that he can likely be a cheap starter for Minnesota for 6 years. Where am I exaggerating? Where I am being a homer drinking the kool-aid? You're the only one here making biased statements about him, yet you accuse me of getting carried away.

    I wasn't comparing Ellsbury to Jeter, and I think it was pretty obvious. I was pointing out that the Yankees have an active Hall of Famer (and everyone's favorite ballplayer) who isn't a 5 tool player. The fact you use it against any other player is silly. The 5-tool designation is a crappy measuring stick.

    Yes, if Hughes excels he's more valuable over the next 5 years than anyone the Sox are willing to offer. You can't ignore the attrition rate of pitchers, and that makes this a debate even if you don't want it to be.
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2008
  17. Real World

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    Oh no, my opinion isn't based on who they want more, it's based on what package is better. The Twins may indeed want Ellsbury more, but their actions clearly show that Hughes has more value. Again, this isn't complicated. Hughes is the best player mentioned in any deal, and the Twins know that. They might want Ellsbury, but he, and the rest of the list that comes with him, isn't as good as the Hughes package. That's why the Twins recinded their Kennedy demands with the Hughes list, because it's that much better overall. This is what I mean by local fans overrating their own prospects and players. Ellsbury is good, but he's not Hughes good. For the Twins, they're not going to take a deal they view poorly because of one player they "like". It's the overall package quality & value that matter.
  18. Real World

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    I'm not sure how 13 major league starts & a playoff appearance are a lost season. Had he missed the season, then sure, but he got enough time in to get a good understanding of what the pros is about.

    I use the 5 tool reference because Ellsbury is an OF prospect who's missing 2 of the tools. Again, Ellsbury could/should become a very good player, maybe an excellent player, but there is little drop off from Melky to Ellsbury, which is in contrast to anything else mentioned on his list, versus Hughes.
  19. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat Rookie

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    A great pitching prospect, coming off of a great season, had a so-so year and suffered injuries. He only threw 73 innings, so he'll have the same innings limit next year. I don't see how 2007 can be chalked up as anything but a disappointment for Hughes. His 2006 was out-of-this-world, and his 2007 doesn't mean he can't have a great 2008. I just don't see why you can't admit his 2007 was a bad year.

    If it helps, I'll admit that Coco somehow got even worse defensively and that Daniel Bard looks like he'll never pitch in the majors. It's ok, not everything needs to be spun as sunshine and roses.

    But he has a great eye/approach/patience/whatever, a tool ignored by the 5-tool method (yet more important than most of them). And one of his tools (speed) is exceptional. If you aren't going to good at everything it really helps to be great at one thing. Ellsbury's speed qualifies.

    Melky is a 4th outfielder forced to start because of injuries and no better options. His OPS last year was .718. His offense was as bad as Coco Crisp's, who at least had stellar defense to fall back on (and I think Crisp is an awful player, at least on the Sox). Ellsbury should only be mentioned in the same sentence as Melky if the words "is much better than" are in there.

    Sheesh, talk about buying into your team's/fan base's hype.
  20. Foley

    Foley Rookie

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    Well if you want to take overall quality that still doesn't give NYY an obvious advantage. John Sickels, an authority on milb prospects, ranks Ellsbury an A-, Lowrie an A-, and Masterson a B. Only Marquez is ranked for NYY (as he is the only minor leaguer in their offer) and is ranked a C+. So assuming Hughes is an A (his ranking last year) and Cabrera a B, the two packages consist of A-, A-, B and A, B, C+. That doesn't look like one offer is clearly better than the other in terms of overall quality. Even if you deem Cabrera as only a "little drop off" from Ellsbury and give him a B+, the packages are still pretty even.

    Baseball Prospectus ranks Ellsbury a 5 star player, and Lowrie and Masterson 4 star players. Marquez isn't on the list of top 11 NYY prospects, but the list ends with 2 star prospects so I'll give him that. If Hughes is a 5-star and Cabrera a 4-star (a stretch), then they would deem Bostons offer superior to NYYs (5,4,4 > 5,4,2).

    I know you disagree, but one of the most respected milb talent evaluators and one of the most respected baseball analysis sites says that the two packages are very comparable.
  21. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You can debate a single game all you like but his career numbers aren't very good. He's young and has a lot of experience for his age. But he needs a season with good numbers soon.
  22. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    Maybe because it wasn't? Again, this kid wasn't even supposed to see the majors this season, so the fact that he saw them before anticipated, and performed adequately despite injury, simply can't be seen as a disappointment. I think the 73 innings and 13 starts around injury, in a penant race, are far more beneficial than another season dominating AAA. If you think his season was less than ideal, then fine, you'd like to see him be injury free, and hit his innings limit, but the kid turned 21 during the season, and wasn't supposed to see the majors, save for a possibly september call up. I know though, it's the Yankees, so it has to be bad.


    You obviously don't follow much of anything outside of your favorite team. Melky has started in the majors the last 2 years at age 21 & 22. He was hitting .385 in triple A when he was rushed to the pros. He's got arguably the best arm in all of baseball, and certainly the best hose in CF. You don't run on Cabrera, period. No first to third, scoring on any flyball, or being guaranteed home on a singe. There is more to defense than making a diving catch you know. The kid is learning on the job in the pros. He's 5+ years younger than Crisp & younger than Ellsbury. He's going to get better whereas Coco is what he is. Again, this isn't really complicated to understand. The drop off from a proven 23 year old CF in Cabrera, to Ellsbury, is not nearly as drastic as the difference between Hughes, and the assorted players the Sox are offering. This isn't about each individual player versus the other, it is about the overall quality of the packages being offered. The Twins might like Ellsbury better, but they don't like him more than the difference between packages. In essence, Ellsbury could be another Scott Posednik, Coco Crisp, Corey Patterson, Will Taveras, etc. A really speedy guy who slaps the ball around, steals bases, and shags em in CF.
  23. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    Marquez is ranked 7th by BA in the Yankees top 10. What you have to understand is that rankings don't illustrate the value of different prospects from different positions. An Ellsbury is no where near as valuable as a Hughes for example. I don't say this because I think any of the names mentioned stink. I say this because it's simply common sense. The Yankees list with Hughes is better than anything the Sox have offered. That could always change of course.

    Let's put it this way, Alex Gordon and Cameron Maybin are also 5 star prospects, as is Evan Longoria. Is Ellsbury better than any of those players? Nope.
  24. Real World

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    His WHIP is awful and he lacks command. He's got good stuff, but he can't put it where he wants to, or can't pitch more than 5 innings, without getting to high a pitch count. He could be very good, but command is key. Pointing to one game against a terrible team in a 3-0 WS doesn't do much to change an aquiring teams previous views. People who point to that game tend to be the same people who site his win loss record, which is another virtually useless statistic when determining a pitchers quality. If they didn't like him before, they didn't like him after either, and vice versa. He's not as valuable a prospect as Buckholz, who has very good command, more velocity, and a better aray of pitches.
  25. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat Rookie

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    Whatever. Injured and ineffective can now count as a productive season. We're setting the bar extremely low.

    Or maybe I live in NY and watched a lot of Yankees games because I didn't get extra innings last year. Oh, and because they're my team's biggest rival or something.

    Melky is young, yes. I don't see why you can just assume he'll get much better simply because he ages. In 1400 ml ABs his OPS was .769. In 1000 ML ABs his OPS is .728. He regressed offensively last year. Excuse me if i'm just not seeing it.

    And yes, he has a great arm. Arm also happens to be the least important tool out there for position players (especially CFs). It's a nice plus, but hardly compensates for being a liability offensively.

    Melky has proven he can play in the majors, yet he's also proven he can't play very well. I don't see how this is a positive.
  26. Foley

    Foley Rookie

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    Who said he was better? And while it may be common sense that Hughes is more valuable Ellsbury, the rest of the package in Cabrera and Marquez is inferior to Lowrie and Masterson according to any reputable site that has an opinion on the matter. Hughes may be more valuable than Ellsbury, but does his additional value overshadow the obvious shortcomings in the rest of the package? And this is without the fact there will probably be a 4th player in each deal, with the Red Sox apparently discussing guys like Bowden (3 star, B) or Kalish (4 star, B) and NYY apparently discussing guys like Kei Igawa or Mitch Hilligoss (unranked, C). I'll grant you Hughes is more valuable than Ellsbury (despite the Twins apparent preference for Ellsbury), but every part of the Boston package is considered better by a number of different sources. Even if Hughes is #1, and Ellsbury #13 (his milb.com ranking), that gap is closed considerably when you look at the rest of the package. I'm not saying that Bostons offer is superior or preferred by the Twins, but when you factor in the rest of the package, and you factor in their apparent preference towards Ellsbury, the fact that Hughes has more value than Ellsbury doesn't make the NYY offer clearly better.
  27. groundgame

    groundgame Rookie

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    Given the magnitude of the game, you cannot discount a WS cliching game watched by 50 million people as merely another single game. He does need another season, but his World Series performance puts him no question above Hughes from a value point of comparison one-on-one.
  28. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat Rookie

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    Um, no it doesn't. It was one game. Hughes had a no-hitter through 7 or so innings. Lester has never had a game that good.

    Besides, they were up 3-0. Only one team has ever blown a 3-0 series lead (in case anyone has forgotten, the 2004 Yankees :)). There wasn't nearly as much pressure in that game as you're trying to convey.

    End this with the fact that neither has done a lot in the pros, while Hughes was a better prospect (and is less removed from his prospect days) and I think it's a slam-dunk in favor of Hughes.

    Then again, your opinion is no worse than someone who thinks Melky compares favorably to Ellsbury, Hughes didn't have a disappointing season last year, and a ml middle infielder with an OPS a little below .900 in his first year above A ball is garbage.
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2008
  29. Real World

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    You said Hughes season was a disapointment, and I said it wasn't. Now your trying to put words in my mouth. If you think his season was a loss, then that's your perogative. I don't think 13 starts from a 21 year old who wasn't supposed to see the majors this year is a lost year. The kid had an excellent stretch run in september, and pitched great in his post season outing. That is all part of his maturation process. If he missed the year, then you'd have a point.

    Melky might never get better. The bottom line is that the kid has never played a full season of double, or tripple A. He plays in the toughest market in the country, and has performed adequately. If you followed the Yankees, you'd see he ran out of gas in september which hurt his average. My point isn't that Melky is great. The point is about the difference between the packages, or lists if you prefer. A Hughes Melky + list is simply worth more than the Ellsbury list, for reasons I've mentioned.

    BTW, Melky has shown he's at least as good as Coco, only he's 5+ years younger.
  30. Real World

    Real World Rookie

    Joined:
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    You have your views, I have mine. The bottom line is that if the Twins felt the Sox deal was better than the Yanks list headlined by Hughes, the deal would have already happened. It didn't though.

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