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X and O's for the superbowl game

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Patspsycho, Feb 3, 2012.

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  1. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    The Giants offense is a modification of the Oilers run and shoot from the early 1990’s which features the “posse” (4 WR/1 RB) to accommodate their three-head monster at WR (Cruz-Manningham-Nicks) and is basically a read and react off the defense, and instead of running one route, you have what is called a “decision tree” which is basically, “get open,” so it’s more of a concept/philosophy than a system (think Phil Jackson’s triangle offense). This explains why our young defensive backs have a really hard time with it. It basically is an offense that simply continues until someone gets open, so it’s full of double and triple-moves, and pretty much is fatal to inexperienced, undisciplined DBs (like ours), who might tend to let off the gas after a basic route has been run (because they assume the read is dead) or they don’t realize this kind of offense doesn’t need any time or route to develop, so you have to pay attention all the time (right Guyton?). Now two knocks against this offense is that one, it is not a clock burner (but works pretty good when you have very little time on the clock), and two, it got killed by the zone blitz. It’s an up and down system that’s great when it’s working, but when it’s not working, it’s terrible. It basically gave rise to that infamous punch by the frustrated Oilers DC, none other than Buddy Ryan, who loved to call this offense the “run and duck” (when the zone blitz got the QB). Fun fact: The guy he punched? The OC of the Oilers, Kevin Gilbride. Who is the current OC of the Giants? Kevin Gilbride.

    So obviously, the weight of shutting down this offense really rests on the backfield, and not really with the guys up front. I think that we will open in the 4-3 nickel with a really reduced line, with the goal of not so much blowing up the pocket as sealing the edge for two reasons: Eli makes plays when he’s able to break out of the pocket, and so does Bradshaw. Bradshaw is pretty good at running on the outside, but his YPC is awful when running between the tackles. So if we contain both of them inside, their rate of success really drops. That is killing two birds with one stone.

    With the nickel. I think the key to defeating the modified Oilers run-n-shoot is to disguise coverage as much as we can. Show man and go zone post-snap, such as shadowing any Giants pre-snap motion, to sell Eli and the receivers (they have to read as much as Eli does) on the man coverage, but we are simply switching zone assignments. Earlier this season, that kind of complicity would have been impossible, but at this point I think we are really up to it. In the Ravens game, we went from a pre-snap 3-4 to a post-snap 4-3 pretty seamlessly so I can only think that can be very encouraging. I think that while we’ll let Wilfork run amok and wreak havoc on the line, we’re going to use this as a feint and disguise our real intention which is to place priority on sealing the pocket. In this regard, the responsibility will be pretty much on the backfield. I would not be surprised to see McCourty start out playing a lot of safety, and only switch if one of the receivers get hot. They must be able to read Eli, especially his tendency to look at his first read right before the snap. The integral task is to keep Manningham and Nicks in front of them, and limit Cruz’s YAC ability.

    And as for the offense, one thing I did was to take another look at the 17 point explosion in the 4th quarter of the Nov. 6 game to try to see if I could figure out what the elements were that led to that kind of success.

    The first thing I saw was that Brady was getting rid of the ball a lot faster- it may be that his arm had warmed up sufficiently to overcome whatever injury he was experiencing at the time. The second thing I saw was that our offense was much more horizontal, forcing the Giants to play horizontal defense. We had a few misdirection plays, plenty of PA’s and went to the spread in the hurry up. On the first drive, we did a double-reversal, then froze them on a PA out of the I formation and that set the tone for the rest of the drive. Unfortunately, what killed this drive was a bad route run by Ocho which forced Brady to overthrow him (it looks like a bad throw, but is clearly an intentional overthrow. Ocho erroneously ran a flag where he should have known it was a go route out of the rollout). FWIW, Ocho also blew a play earlier on this drive. It was the right route, but the timing was just not there. On the second drive, we went to the spread, in the hurry up, and there was always one or two receivers on or outside the numbers.

    This makes me think first, that the Giants D are quite formidable when they know what is coming. With their athleticism, speed, and size, they can crush the point of attack, and even more so if they are allowed to play vertical. But when they don’t know what is coming, or if they are forced to play horizontal, they can be rendered powerless.

    Does that mean we’ll come out with stretch plays off the bat? I doubt it- I think it’ll be an ace that we’ll keep up our sleeve until the right moment. We don’t want to keep throwing horizontal play after play at them until they start to develop a feel for defending it.

    But one thing I think we’ll see right off the bat is a lot of PA out of the ace (2 TE/ 2 WR/1 RB), especially the power O out of the gun in the spread (WS guard pull).

    While the PA doesn’t really fool them, it does freeze them and force them into a read and react which plays against their strengths.

    I’m pretty sure that the Giants will stick to their 3 safety package (Grant in backer) and dare us to run for the most part. The key is, as Bruschi points out, will BOB have the patience to stick with the run to wear down the front four if they make a point of sticking with this package?

    Putting aside the X and O’s, and looking at BB and Brady. I have to mention that those are proud men, they’re keen competitors, and they’re not going to make the same mistakes again, and especially with BB, when he has seen an opponent enough times, he inevitably finds a way to defeat this opponent, and this will mark the 3rd time he has seen a team this season. This is the biggest game of the season, and the best players rise to the occasion. There’s no doubt we’ll see the vintage Brady, the Brady of old.

    We’re going to win, and I don’t even think it will be close. I am a keen student of history and believe that there are peaks and valleys in career and in life, and I believe in opportunities for closure, for atonement. There are certain patterns throughout the course of history, especially in warfare, and this is one of them.

    It’ll feel good to bring #4 home and let the Red Sox know: “Right back at ya, you’re at the bottom of the pile again.”
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2012
  2. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Totally agree on sealing Eli in the pocket. Most of his big plays especially to Cruz come when this happens.

    In regards to Gilbride maybe Rex is rooting for us given Buddy's hated of him and how he beat both Rex and Rob back to back earlier this year. :eek:
     
  3. Wax Frog

    Wax Frog In the Starting Line-Up

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    Good post, and a fine substitute for the disappointing TV media. My expectations of the latter are low, but would it kill them to show a little balance/detachment?
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2012
  4. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady In the Starting Line-Up

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    Something that's interesting is that the Giants seem to run a pretty vanilla offense, of at least that's what's been said. They have tons of athletic talent but it seems not a lot of brains behind it.

    Mario Manningham scored a 6 on the Wonderlic. Hakeem Nicks scored a 12. These don't always translate to the NFL, as both players are very successful, but I wonder if their lack of quick thinking hinders the Giants. We're talking about an offense that should be in the 500 point club based on their talent but winds below 400 and is very inconsistent.

    Eli Manning scored a 39, which makes him a genius in the true definition of the word.
     
  5. billdog3484

    billdog3484 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    last two paragraphs gave me chills. beautiful stuff
     
  6. Leave No Doubt

    Leave No Doubt PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    For sure. Great post Psycho:rocker:
     
  7. vuudu

    vuudu In the Starting Line-Up

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    It is interesting thinking about the Parallels with 2007. In 07, we beat them in the preseason and the regular season.
    This year, they beat us in the preseason and the regular season.
    We have a record breaking pass catcher on our team. We have a player who has a foot injury.
    It goes on and on, I am going to stop now.
    Good job Patpyscho. I really want to see the opinion of a Giant fan on your post. According to them, all pats fans can't talk Xs and Os and that we are all idiots while they are not offering any evidence that they can also talk Xs and Os.
     
  8. Gwedd

    Gwedd PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think you nailed it.

    I believe that New England takes the lead and never relinquishes it, never takes it foot off the gas pedal and just keeps driving.

    I believe we will see New England use the hurry-up for the majority of the time, and use it effectively.

    I see New England being able to run often and effectively, and cycle our backs in and out to keep fresh legs toting the rock.

    I see redemption for 85, and scores by both TE's.

    On defense, I think that McCourty gets a pick.

    I think that Big Vince has a monster game here, and that he, Ellis, and Nink get to Eli early & often.
     
  9. NEP4Life

    NEP4Life Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Last edited: Feb 3, 2012
  10. Patriot 37

    Patriot 37 On the Game Day Roster

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    You said you think they will open in a nickel, I assume you meant if the NYG are in 3 WR.

    Couple Questions what to do think the Pats will use against the 2WR 1TE 2RB set?

    What do you think the nickel line up will be, no Deadrick, No Spikes ? Whose in the slot vs. Cruz?

    Great post like to hear more.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2012
  11. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady In the Starting Line-Up

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    I don't know. As much as I'd like to see Chad be a hero, pp's analysis paints a pretty bleak picture of him. I don't think they activate him, especially if they're activating Vollmer and Ridley.
     
  12. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks for that rational and astute breakdown Patspsycho.

    I understand that the mainstream media is all about entertainment for the casual fan and bottom line ratings, but I have found the overwhelming amount of their commentary to be so shallow, superficial and illogical that it cannot even be termed as analysis. The paucity of genuine and balanced evaluations has been disheartening. It's nice to see someone put together an intelligent and perceptive appraisal to help balance out all the frivolous noise dominating the internet and airwaves about this game.
     
  13. jnug

    jnug On the Game Day Roster

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    The Pats have a tendency to give up on the run to easily even when they are successful with it. While I cannot see them suddenly turn away from the passing game I would love to see them run out of the no huddle, gas that DL in an enclosed building, and then turn to play action to suffocate them.

    I would love to see Brady bring back some of the ball handling skills that he used very effectively earlier in his career. That is not to say that he has been bad at PA lately but he used to be a bit more focused on the details of PA and he was really nasty then. I think this is the game when he needs to bring that back in a big way.
     
  14. ALP

    ALP Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    if i HAD to put money down on the game, thats what i would put it on


    nice post
     
  15. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson In the Starting Line-Up

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    Awesome post as usual PP. My only trepidation for the Pats offense is if the Giants use an aggressive man to man press coverage. I think it would neutralize the horizontal passing game and that the Giants expect that their front 4 will get to the QB faster than a pressed WR can get open down field. Any thoughts?
     
  16. eagle eye

    eagle eye In the Starting Line-Up

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    Patspsycho, thats just a fantastic post. Its just so enjoyable and refreshing to read. I just love to read your breakdowns, trip reports to TC etc. Thank you.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2012
  17. NSPF

    NSPF Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Awesome job, thank you! I do think it's kind of a shame though that you have to do this because the "experts" who are getting paid to analyze won't! I don't know what goes on in their decisions on content.

    "Hey, we could do an X's and O's approach about how the Giant's offense is based on the run-n-shoot philosophy, and how the Pats might approach defending it."

    "You're an idiot, that's terrible. We should just give our opinions on Gronkowski's ankle again."

    "Okay."
     
  18. OldPatsfans

    OldPatsfans Rookie

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    Great post. I feel the same way. It's due. Silly as that may sound, but something tells me that the Pats gonna roll over them. Tuck, Pierre-Paul won't know what hits them and in their minds, it is not happening.... They will tell themselves "it ain't happening... because it is not supposed to be so per press clippings they've read all week.

    We will see a bunch of Giants in dazed at the end of the game. They will talk to themselves, they will dig out newspapers, visit websites seeking confirmation that they were the winners, the proclaimed winners. What just happens on the field are not reality.


    41-23 Pats

    Just love it when talking heads are picking the Giants.
     
  19. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I think we will start in the nickel, but not sure if we stay in it- it will depend on the ebb and flow of the game. The Posse (4 WR/1 RB) is the bread and butter of the Giants offense, and they are rarely out of that personnel. I think the only time I've seen them use the 212 is in the short yardage situations and of course we'll put in our heavy personnel for those downs.

    Deaderick and Spikes will be in there, but where their alignments will be, I have no idea- my guess is we start in the 4-3 that will look more like a 5-2 or 6-1 with the outer backs walked up to the line. Of course that leaves the flat open with only the mike, but that's a poison pill I think BB is willing to swallow in order to contain the pocket. I think you will see a corner on Cruz, not a safety, not Chung or Edelman.
     
  20. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    They may actually do that, gambling that Gronk is not going to be 100% and thereby can be left in an one-on-one matchup, in which case, we will see routes being launched out of the HB, as we did in the Ravens game. Just about everyone, including Gronk, released out of the HB alignment. Press coverage will of course, leave them extremely exposed to the run game, providing we don't veer away from it.
     
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