WR Ratings

[ivanvamp]

Here are the top 12 free agent wide receivers (according to 2012 NFL Free Agents: WR), and where they ranked in terms of all pass-catchers (WR, TE, RB, and even QB) in the NFL in 2011, according to my ratings (min 32 receptions to qualify):

Vincent Jackson
PR: 31.46, #12
ER: 34.12, #3
DR: 27.12, #12
TR: 141.21, #8

Wes Welker
PR: 44.59, #3
ER: 27.04, #52
DR: 21.36, #50
TR: 151.10, #5

Reggie Wayne
PR: 26.10, #26
ER: 25.73, #69
DR: 18.63, #85
TR: 109.41, #37

Desean Jackson
PR: 23.31, #38
ER: 29.59, #27
DR: 24.13, #25
TR: 115.14, #28

Dwayne Bowe
PR: 29.39, #16
ER: 27.70, #44
DR: 21.80, #48
TR: 122.02, #21

Marques Colston
PR: 31.93, #9
ER: 29.65, #24
DR: 20.49, #59
TR: 128.82, #14

Steve Johnson
PR: 29.14, #18
ER: 25.67, #72
DR: 20.11, #64
TR: 116.90, #26

Brandon Lloyd
PR: 25.26, #33
ER: 25.75, #68
DR: 18.77, #84
TR: 107.92, #44

Robert Meacham
PR: 19.10, #65
ER: 30.81, #16
DR: 21.83, #46
TR: 106.24, #48

Mario Manningham
PR: 15.63, #78
ER: 25.90, #66
DR: 18.07, #91
TR: 88.18, #85

Laurent Robinson
PR: 28.58, #20
ER: 31.27, #14
DR: 25.05, #20
TR: 129.11, #13

Mike Wallace (restricted)
PR: 31.53, #11
ER: 31.58, #9
DR: 27.06, #13
TR: 137.49, #9

So by category:

Productivity Rating
1. Welker, 44.59, #3
2. Colston, 31.93, #9
3. Wallace, 31.53, #11
4. VJackson, 31.46, #12
5. Bowe, 29.39, #16
6. SJohnson, 29.14, #18
7. Robinson, 28.58, #20
8. Wayne, 26.10, #26
9. Lloyd, 25.26, #33
10. DJackson, 23.31, #38
11. Meachem, 19.10, #65
12. Manningham, 15.63, #78

Efficiency Rating
1. VJackson, 34.12, #3
2. Wallace, 31.58, #9
3. Robinson, 31.27, #14
4. Meachem, 30.81, #16
5. Colston, 29.60, #24
6. DJackson, 29.59, #27
7. Bowe, 27.70, #44
8. Welker, 27.04, #52
9. Manningham, 25.90, #66
10. Lloyd, 25.75, #68
11. Wayne, 25.73, #69
12. SJohnson, 25.63, #72

Danger Rating
1. VJackson, 27.12, #12
2. Wallace, 27.06, #13
3. Robinson, 25.05, #20
4. DJackson, 24.13, #25
5. Meachem, 21.83, #46
6. Bowe, 21.70, #48
7. Welker, 21.36, #50
8. Colston, 20.49, #59
9. SJohnson, 20.11, #64
10. Lloyd, 18.77, #84
11. Wayne, 18.63, #85
12. Manningham, 18.07, #91

Total Rating
1. Welker, 151.10, #5
2. VJackson, 141.21, #8
3. Wallace, 137.49, #9
4. Robinson, 129.11, #13
5. Colston, 128.82, #14
6. Bowe, 122.02, #21
7. SJohnson, 116.90, #25
8. DJackson, 115.14, #28
9. Wayne, 109.41, #37
10. Lloyd, 107.92, #44
11. Meacham, 106.24, #48
12. Manningham, 88.18, #85

Some observations:
- Welker's actual production was FAR superior to anyone else on this list. Not even close.

- Manningham is by a wide margin the worst WR in the group. And that tells you more about the quality of the group, as I think Manningham is a pretty good receiver. Moreover, rumblings that Manningham expects a $7 mil a year contract. Yikes. What does that mean for the other guys?

- Robinson had a sneaky good year. I know he was catching a lot of TD passes, but the guy was very good this season. Which is pretty amazing considering that the Cowboys also had Witten, Dez Bryant, and Miles Austin.

- Reggie Wayne is really, really good. Even at his age, he put up good numbers with crap at QB. To finish ranked #37, when these rankings take into account all the factors and all the positions, is pretty good.

 

[Boomer B]

Good job. Looks like a lot of time and effort went into this.

The issue I have with some of the ratings systems we see is things like:

- Who was the QB these receivers played with? Playing with an all time QB like Brady is better then playing with a scrub like Kolb.

- What type of coverage does the WR see? Guys like Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitz who see double coverage on almost every play vs a guy like Branch who gets single coverage every play.

- What type of offense does the receiver play in? Is the focal point running the ball, thus bringing up safety's and opening up deep passing game or is it a spread offense with focus on short passing game.

So many variables that stats don't always tell the whole picture.

 

[ay-yo]

Robinson could be an interesting signing. He seems to get good separation quite frequently. With such a strong WR class he could be had for a reasonable deal.

 

[ivanvamp]

Good job. Looks like a lot of time and effort went into this.

The issue I have with some of the ratings systems we see is things like:

- Who was the QB these receivers played with? Playing with an all time QB like Brady is better then playing with a scrub like Kolb.

- What type of coverage does the WR see? Guys like Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitz who see double coverage on almost every play vs a guy like Branch who gets single coverage every play.

- What type of offense does the receiver play in? Is the focal point running the ball, thus bringing up safety's and opening up deep passing game or is it a spread offense with focus on short passing game.

So many variables that stats don't always tell the whole picture.

Absolutely true. You and I will never really know, for example, who is most responsible for a particular incomplete pass. Maybe the QB made a bad throw. Maybe the OL didn't protect like it should have. Maybe the receiver ran an imprecise route. Maybe a combo of all of that.

Football is the ultimate team game. Nobody's success - absolutely nobody's - is an individual story. Every individual achievement requires help from teammates.