WR - Free Agency, Trade, or Draft?

[TriplecHamp]

All Three, Id give a second for Boldin or Marshall (even though Marshall will probably cost more), Domenik Hixon in FA, and Riley Cooper in the draft assuming we give up a second for Boldin.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

Welker scored 21 TDs in college, but not as the number one receiving option on his team. Benn has always been the number one. Reggie Ball sucked way worse than Juice Williams (he is Benn's personal scape goat), in a run first offense, and Calvin Johnson caught 28 TDs. It really is important. Benn caught 2 touchdowns, then 3 his best year, then 2 more this year. And he was a deep threat at 14ypc. People compare him to Boldin but Boldin caught 21 TDs in just 23 games at receiver. I look for the rule rather than gamble on the exception.

There is no "rule" that states that just because a guy has a lot of TD's that he will excel in the pros. Peter Warrick had 32 career TD's, most in FSU history, and didn't pan out in the NFL. Bust.

Carlos Rogers WR at Mich St. 27 TD's for most in MSU history. Bust.

Reggie Williams 22 career TD at Washington. Bust.

JJ Stokes holds the record for most TD's in a season in UCLA history with 17. Bust.

Desmond Howard 32 TD's and David Terrell 23 TD's at Michigan. Busts.

Troy Edwards 50 career TD's at LA Tech. Bust.


I'm sure there are much more, but the point has been made. There is no rule that the more TD's you catch the better you will be in the pros. That is a ridiculous statement. Watch some of Benn's highlights. He's explosive, fast, breaks tackles, physical, and a playmaker. Seems to run some pretty crisp routes too. He's everything I want lining up opposite Moss in 2010. He reminds me more of Andre Johnson than he does of Anquan Boldin b/c he's physical, very good in the open field with the ball in his hands, and a deep threat. Obviously I'm not saying he's going to be the next Andre Johnson, but that's who he reminds me of when I watch him.
Benn Highlights
Benn Highlights Mix

 

[DW Toys]

I really don't want to see us using valuable draft picks to acquire veteran WRs. I do, however, believe that we need veterans more than more rookies.

I would like to do 2 things:

1. Pick up a veteran FA WR, perhaps even 2. The 2 potential "elite" guys are Antonio Bryant (a UFA) and Malcolm Floyd (a RFA so probably unlikely, unless San Diego is unable to tender him because of all their other resignings; again, I doubt this happens). The 2 low-end guys who could immediately help are Deion Branch and Donte Stallworth, because they know the system and have rapport with Brady.

2. Pick up a late round developmental WR. Freddie Barnes would be ideal. Jacoby Ford might be an option.

The use our draft picks on defense, OL, and perhaps an offensive playmaker like CJ Spiller, Jahvid Best or Dexter McCluster.

I see this as an actual perfect scenario. Good post sir.
DW Toys

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

There is no "rule" that states that just because a guy has a lot of TD's that he will excel in the pros. Peter Warrick had 32 career TD's, most in FSU history, and didn't pan out in the NFL. Bust.

Carlos Rogers WR at Mich St. 27 TD's for most in MSU history. Bust.

Reggie Williams 22 career TD at Washington. Bust.

JJ Stokes holds the record for most TD's in a season in UCLA history with 17. Bust.

Desmond Howard 32 TD's and David Terrell 23 TD's at Michigan. Busts.

Troy Edwards 50 career TD's at LA Tech. Bust.


I'm sure there are much more, but the point has been made. There is no rule that the more TD's you catch the better you will be in the pros. That is a ridiculous statement.

That would be a rediculous statement if I had made it. I said that a lack of TDs means a player shouldn't be drafted high. Instead of finding examples of WRs who produced in college and busted in the pros, find the inverse. Find WRs who received starters playing time, yet scored rarely while in college, then they became playmakers in the pros. Even NFL possession receivers were TD threats in college. What about WRs catching fewer than 15 TDs while receiving starters playing time and being drafted high in the last 20 years? High TD guys bust, but low TD guys bust more often.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

That would be a rediculous statement if I had made it. I said that a lack of TDs means a player shouldn't be drafted high. Instead of finding examples of WRs who produced in college and busted in the pros, find the inverse. Find WRs who received starters playing time, yet scored rarely while in college, then they became playmakers in the pros. Even NFL possession receivers were TD threats in college. What about WRs catching fewer than 15 TDs while receiving starters playing time and being drafted high in the last 20 years? High TD guys bust, but low TD guys bust more often.

I assume by drafting high you mean in the first 2 rounds. I can only remember a few off hand

Eddie Royal had 12 TD's in 4 full years at VaTech. Success in NFL. I think Roddy White had like 13 or 14 TD's for UAB and he's been successful.

I think I understand the point you are trying to make, but I still can't justify a lack of TD's resulting in a WR not being drafted high. It just doesn't make sense at all. If the guy has the talent you take him, and in my opinion Benn has the talent.

What WR's are you high on for the 2010 draft?

 

[RyanP421]

Welker scored 21 TDs in college, but not as the number one receiving option on his team. Benn has always been the number one. Reggie Ball sucked way worse than Juice Williams (he is Benn's personal scape goat), in a run first offense, and Calvin Johnson caught 28 TDs. It really is important. Benn caught 2 touchdowns, then 3 his best year, then 2 more this year. And he was a deep threat at 14ypc. People compare him to Boldin but Boldin caught 21 TDs in just 23 games at receiver. I look for the rule rather than gamble on the exception.

Rating players based on TDs is an absolutely horrible way to judge talent.

Thank goodness you have nothing to do with decision making for the Patriots.

And you don't draft players based on the "rule" or the numbers they put up in college. You draft based on projecting what they will do at the next level in your system. If people judged players coming into the NFL the way you apparently do, Tebow would be the number 1 overall pick...But he's not, now is he?

Benn would look good in a Pats uni.

 

[RyanP421]

That would be a rediculous statement if I had made it. I said that a lack of TDs means a player shouldn't be drafted high. Instead of finding examples of WRs who produced in college and busted in the pros, find the inverse. Find WRs who received starters playing time, yet scored rarely while in college, then they became playmakers in the pros. Even NFL possession receivers were TD threats in college. What about WRs catching fewer than 15 TDs while receiving starters playing time and being drafted high in the last 20 years? High TD guys bust, but low TD guys bust more often.

Off top of my head...Marques Colston?

Maybe Illinois running the ball 2-3x a game more than they pass the ball has SOMETHING to do with Benn's lack of TDs, but hey, that's just me.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

Off top of my head...Marques Colston?

Maybe Illinois running the ball 2-3x a game more than they pass the ball has SOMETHING to do with Benn's lack of TDs, but hey, that's just me.

Exactly. Thank you.

Illinois was 17th in the nation in rushing yards per game with 200 YPG on the ground in 2009.

In 2007, they used Mendenhall a TON. He got the ball 262 times for 1681 yards and 17 TD's. Why would you want to pass the ball in the red zone with such a reliable stud RB? Illinois was 5th in the nation in YPG on the ground in 07 due to Mendenhall.

When you can run the ball effectively like that, why would you put the ball in the hands of Juice Williams, who is prone to turnovers. Watch some of the highlights of Benn, PatsCanDoIt. He's consistently moving the chains and catching balls in the red zone or catching balls and picking up YAC and getting inside the 20. Judging a WR based on TD's is absurd.

 

[mgteich]

I expect the patriots to use at leat two of the three routes to acquire wide receivers. With Moss and Edleman as our receivers as of now, we need both quantity and quality.

How do you think the Pats should go about addressing their need at WR? Assuming 2010 is uncapped:

Notable Free Agents
Terrell Owens - 36 - UFA
Antonio Bryant - 29 - UFA
Derrick Mason - 36 - UFA
Kevin Walter - 29 - UFA
Vincent Jackson - 27 - RFA
Brandon Marshall - 26 - RFA
Miles Austin - 26 - RFA
Braylon Edwards - 26 - RFA
Malcolm Floyd - 28 - RFA
Steve Breaston - 27 - RFA
Josh Reed - 30 - UFA
Lance Moore - 27 -RFA

Possibly on the Block
Anquan Boldin
Brandon Marshall

Players Who Might Be Cut and Know the Offense
Deion Branch
Dante Stallworth


Notable Draft Prospects
Dez Bryant - Oklahoma St.
Brandon Lafell - LSU
Damian Williams - USC
Golden Tate - Notre Dame
Arrelious Benn - Illinois
Jordan Shipley - Texas
Demariyus Thomas - Georgia Tech
Mardy Gilyard - Cincinnati
Mike Williams - Syracuse
Dezmon Briscoe - Kansas
Eric Decker - Minnesota
Taylor Price - Ohio
Jacoby Ford - Clemson
Riley Cooper - Florida

Current WR
Randy Moss - 33 in 2010, last year of contract
Wes Welker - probably will start 2010 on PUP, 29 in 2010
Julian Edelman - 24 in 2010, will likely assume slot role for Welker
Brandon Tate - 23 in 2010, coming off another knee injury, kick returner
Sam Aiken - 30 in 2010, best used on ST
Matt Slater - 25 in 2010, will he still be on team?, STer like Aiken
Isaiah Stanback - 26 in 2010, QB to WR conversion
Darnell Jenkins - 28 in 2010, practice squad in 09


My Thoughts
I'm sure we'd all like to see someone of Brandon Marshall's or Vincent Jackson's talent level added at WR, but the chances of that happening are slim. I could maybe see a guy like Antonio Bryant brought in, but again I have my doubts.

I think our biggest need at WR is someone to line up out wide opposite Moss. A physical WR who can work the intermediate zone of the field and go over the middle with good speed and reliable hands. I have high hopes for Tate, but he cannot be counted on. Stanback, Aiken, and Slater are all more a part of the problem than the solution. Edelman will make a good replacement for Welker in the slot as Wes rehabs the knee.

My plan is to keep Moss for the final year of his contract and draft a replacement for him in the 2011 draft. AJ Green, Jonathan Baldwin, Julio Jones, and Michael Floyd will all likely be available in the 2011 draft, in which we have 2 first round picks. All 4 of them are potential gamebreakers at WR who will be able to replace Moss' big play ability. Currently my two favorite are Green and Baldwin.

For the spot opposite Moss, I would like to see us use a 2nd rounder to acquire a WR in one of two ways:

1. I would be in favor of trading 2nd rounder for Anquan Boldin. I love his playing style and I think he is just what we need. He is the perfect #2 WR to be used in the intermediate passing game. He is fearless going over the middle, has reliable hands, plays with a lot of passion and with a chip on his shoulder, breaks a lot of tackles, and is only due 3 million in 2010. The issue with trading for him is that he has been banged up over the last couple of years and is going to want an extension, as his contract runs out after 2010.

2. I would like to see us use one of our 2nd rounders on a WR. Some guys that are possibly projected to go in the 2nd round are Golden Tate, Brandon Lafell, Jordan Shipley, Damian Williams, and Arrelious Benn. The two guys that I am most intrigued by are Tate and Benn.

Tate played under Weis at Notre Dame and had a great season. He's great in the open field at making people miss and picking up YAC. He's not that explosive off the line but when he gets going he's got pretty good speed. Reliable hands, good route runner, can make catches in traffic and go deep. He's listed at 5'11 and reminds me of Greg Jennings when thinking of an NFL comparison. Dangerous weapon in the open field once you get the ball in his hands, good route runner, good hands. He can also help on special teams as a KR and PR.

Benn is quickly becoming my #1 WR prospect for the Pats. He is in the 6'1 to 6'2 range and is a physical WR with great speed. He has a similar type of game to Andre Johnson where he can get behind the defense and also go over the middle and operate well in traffic. He's dangerous with the ball in his hands and breaks tackles, has a quick burst off the LOS, and can also contribute as a KR and PR, as he did both in college. He has a secure set of hands and can go up and win jump balls. He had a down year due to an injured ankle and poor team play, so his draft stock has fallen. The negative is that he played in a spread offense in college, but so have guys like Crabtree, Harvin, and Maclin, and they've all come in and made immediate impacts. I think Benn is the guy we've been looking for to both stretch the field and work the intermediate passing game, something we were hoping Chad Jackson would do.

If we do not use a 2nd rounder to get a WR and don't want to give a decent contract to a guy like Bryant, I'd like to see Stallworth or Branch brought back if they're cut. I think Stallworth would come pretty cheap. But who knows if we would want to bring back as some people like to say "Meion" Branch who shot his way out of town or a guy that killed someone while driving drunk.

Summary
Going into 2010 our top WRs would be:
Moss
Boldin/Benn/Golden Tate/Stallworth/Branch
Edelman
Brandon Tate
Wes Welker (PUP)

2011:
Green/Baldwin/Jones/Floyd
Boldin(if extended)/Benn/Golden Tate/Stallworth/Branch
Welker
Edelman
Brandon Tate

My personal preference is to add Boldin or Benn/Tate as opposed to adding a Stallworth or Branch, especially with Welker's status up in the air. A player of Boldin or Benn's caliber would take some heat off Moss and give Brady a legitimate 3rd receiving option.

What are your thoughts on how we should address the need WR? Any players you specifically like/don't like? Which way should we go about acquiring one? What do you think the Pats will most likely do?

 

[PowerRunRevival]

I vote for draft, although I bet a low priced 4th wr type option will be brought in.

I have issue with the list of busts. First of all Carlos Rodgers is a cornerback for the Red Skins. I assume you meant Charles Rogers. Charles Rogers caught 22 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns 5 games into his rookie season before he got injured and was out for the season. With the injury his drug habbit increased and he was never the same (he went from running a 4.28 to a 4.65). So if the injury doesn't derail his career he probably ends up not a bust.

Desmond Howard won a superbowl mvp, he also was a pro bowler as a return man. Just because there are busts among prollific college players doesn't mean that success in college doesn't improve the likelihood of success in the pros.

 

[mgteich]

You do understand that Moss and Edelman are our entire receiving corps as of now (except for the injured, the undeveloped and the special teamers)

I vote for draft, although I bet a low priced 4th wr type option will be brought in.

I have issue with the list of busts. First of all Carlos Rodgers is a cornerback for the Red Skins. I assume you meant Charles Rogers. Charles Rogers caught 22 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns 5 games into his rookie season before he got injured and was out for the season. With the injury his drug habbit increased and he was never the same (he went from running a 4.28 to a 4.65). So if the injury doesn't derail his career he probably ends up not a bust.

Desmond Howard won a superbowl mvp, he also was a pro bowler as a return man. Just because there are busts among prollific college players doesn't mean that success in college doesn't improve the likelihood of success in the pros.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

Rating players based on TDs is an absolutely horrible way to judge talent.

Thank goodness you have nothing to do with decision making for the Patriots.

And you don't draft players based on the "rule" or the numbers they put up in college. You draft based on projecting what they will do at the next level in your system. If people judged players coming into the NFL the way you apparently do, Tebow would be the number 1 overall pick...But he's not, now is he?

Benn would look good in a Pats uni.

I don't only use TDs as a way to rate WRs. However, Benn imo is riskier because of this lack of production. I'd list Bryant, Tate, Williams, LaFell and Gilyard and then Benn. If those guys are gone and he's there at 42, then pull the trigger.

I just don't like his lack of TDs that go along with his great YPC. I also don't like excuses for why "great" talent fails to produce in college. You guys can blame Juice Williams or the offense all you want. I hold Benn accountable. His defender should fall down more than 2 times per season. NFL possession receivers were TD threats in college and college possession receivers barely make it into NFL training camp.

I've read a little about offensive play calling and teams plan to throw deep toward the end zone once they pass the 30 yard line. That's why the 40 time is somewhat useful for scouting deep threats. Even option teams, like Illinois, throw deep when they are within striking distance. So, I question Benn's ability to run those deep routes and get open. College playmakers do specifically that


This thread isn't about Tim Tebow or any other position. It's about wide receivers. Some college production is useful when comparing players at the same position that are equally rated.

 

[RyanP421]

I don't only use TDs as a way to rate WRs. However, Benn imo is riskier because of this lack of production. I'd list Bryant, Tate, Williams, LaFell and Gilyard and then Benn. If those guys are gone and he's there at 42, then pull the trigger.

I just don't like his lack of TDs that go along with his great YPC. I also don't like excuses for why "great" talent fails to produce in college. You guys can blame Juice Williams or the offense all you want. I hold Benn accountable. His defender should fall down more than 2 times per season. NFL possession receivers were TD threats in college and college possession receivers barely make it into NFL training camp.

I've read a little about offensive play calling and teams plan to throw deep toward the end zone once they pass the 30 yard line. That's why the 40 time is somewhat useful for scouting deep threats. Even option teams, like Illinois, throw deep when they are within striking distance. So, I question Benn's ability to run those deep routes and get open. College playmakers do specifically that


This thread isn't about Tim Tebow or any other position. It's about wide receivers. Some college production is useful when comparing players at the same position that are equally rated.

Ok. It's obvious this thread isn't about Tebow. The reference to him was to show an example of why it's dumb to rate players coming in to the NFL and projecting them based upon numbers and numbers alone. Numbers help a great bit, but with the WR position in particular. TDs are one of the least important things IMO when judging a WR's projection into the NFL. It's important, don't get me wrong, but there are other things that are much more important. Just cause someone isn't in an offense that revolves around throwing the ball in the red zone, doesn't mean they won't be a good NFL WR.


I can't believe this has to even be addressed.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

Ok. It's obvious this thread isn't about Tebow. The reference to him was to show an example of why it's dumb to rate players coming in to the NFL and projecting them based upon numbers and numbers alone. Numbers help a great bit, but with the WR position in particular. TDs are one of the least important things IMO when judging a WR's projection into the NFL. It's important, don't get me wrong, but there are other things that are much more important. Just cause someone isn't in an offense that revolves around throwing the ball in the red zone, doesn't mean they won't be a good NFL WR.


I can't believe this has to even be addressed.

Couldn't have said it better myself. He obviously doesn't get that Tebow and Harrell were brought up as examples.

WR's wit a lot of TD's bust. WR's with low TD totals bust. The draft isn't a science. Just because a guy has TD's doesn't mean he will be successful. Just because he doesn't have a lot of TD's doesn't mean he will bust.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

I vote for draft, although I bet a low priced 4th wr type option will be brought in.

I have issue with the list of busts. First of all Carlos Rodgers is a cornerback for the Red Skins. I assume you meant Charles Rogers. Charles Rogers caught 22 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns 5 games into his rookie season before he got injured and was out for the season. With the injury his drug habbit increased and he was never the same (he went from running a 4.28 to a 4.65). So if the injury doesn't derail his career he probably ends up not a bust.

Desmond Howard won a superbowl mvp, he also was a pro bowler as a return man. Just because there are busts among prollific college players doesn't mean that success in college doesn't improve the likelihood of success in the pros.

My mistake on the typo. Meant to write Charles.

I'm not saying that success in college doesn't improve the likelihood of success in the pros. I agree that it does. I'm saying using the stat of TD's to judge where a WR should be drafted is ridiculous. There are plenty of college teams who go to a run-heavy attack in the red zone b/c they want to ensure points are put up on the board and the ball doesn't get turned over. In 2007 Illinois was like 5th in rushing in the nation and Mendenhall had 17 TD's. In 2009 they were 17th in the nation in rushing. My point is that just because Benn doesn't have a lot of TD's doesnt mean he shouldnt be drafted in the 2nd round. I think that's insane. As for him having success in college, he's had his share. 5 100 yard games one year, one of 4 Illini to have a 1000 yd receiving season in Illini history. Freshman of the year in 07 in the Big 10, etc.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

Ok. It's obvious this thread isn't about Tebow. The reference to him was to show an example of why it's dumb to rate players coming in to the NFL and projecting them based upon numbers and numbers alone. Numbers help a great bit, but with the WR position in particular. TDs are one of the least important things IMO when judging a WR's projection into the NFL. It's important, don't get me wrong, but there are other things that are much more important. Just cause someone isn't in an offense that revolves around throwing the ball in the red zone, doesn't mean they won't be a good NFL WR.


I can't believe this has to even be addressed.

There are only a few college stats that seem to be important. Statistics are used, not to rank prospects, but to find significant differences. TD catches per game is one of those stats. It is almost a prerequisite, but not a guarantee for success. Because of this Benn is a top ten WR but not in the top 5 for his position. This is because of the significant difference between his production and the other WRs. That's what's being addressed.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

There are only a few college stats that seem to be important. Statistics are used, not to rank prospects, but to find significant differences. TD catches per game is one of those stats. It is almost a prerequisite, but not a guarantee for success. Because of this Benn is a top ten WR but not in the top 5 for his position. This is because of the significant difference between his production and the other WRs. That's what's being addressed.

The Big 10 is known for not being a wide open conference. Guys like Gilyard played in the Big East on Cincy which was 4th in the nation in PPG. A guy like Shipley played in the Big 12 on an offense ranked 3rd in PPG. Tate played on Notre Dame who averaged around 30 PPG which was like 32nd in the nation. Illinois was 81st out of 120 in PPG and played in more of a cold weather, smash mouth, pound the rock conference.

Illinois was also 89th out of 120 in pass yds per game with 207 ypg. The PPG and Pass YPG both represent an inefficient offense and an inefficient QB.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

The Big 10 is known for not being a wide open conference. Guys like Gilyard played in the Big East on Cincy which was 4th in the nation in PPG. A guy like Shipley played in the Big 12 on an offense ranked 3rd in PPG. Tate played on Notre Dame who averaged around 30 PPG which was like 32nd in the nation. Illinois was 81st out of 120 in PPG and played in more of a cold weather, smash mouth, pound the rock conference.

Illinois was also 89th out of 120 in pass yds per game with 207 ypg. The PPG and Pass YPG both represent an inefficient offense and an inefficient QB.

Wow, that's a pretty impressive list of excuses you got there.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

Wow, that's a pretty impressive list of excuses you got there.

I try to be objective when looking at prospects. I'm not an Ilinois fan nor am I in love with Benn b/c he's my favorite player. It seems like you have a personal distaste for him and are biased.

I think people are sleeping on this kid and think he'd be a good add in the 2nd round. To not be interested in the 2nd round b/c of his TD totals sounds a little crazy to me.

 

[mayoclinic]

You do understand that Moss and Edelman are our entire receiving corps as of now (except for the injured, the undeveloped and the special teamers)

Don't forgot the lepers, the children, and the handicapped.