Would moving kickoffs to the 35 help or hurt the Patriots?

[ctpatsfan77]

The NFL is considering moving the kickoff spot from the 30 to the 35—but also moving the touchback spot on kickoffs ONLY (not punts, etc.) to the opponents' 25.

All in all, would this help the Pats, hurt the Pats, or more or less be a wash?

Pro: Gostkowski's leg = TONS of touchbacks.

Cons: (A) More touchbacks = fewer opportunities to return the ball
(B) Touchbacks on kickoffs would go to the 25 instead of the 20, so a touchback would shorten the field by 5 yards.

NFL pondering significant modifications to kickoffs - The Huddle: Football News from the NFL - USATODAY.com

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think moving the touchback to the 25 increases scoring overall. Your kicker either has the leg to get touchbacks or he doesn't. Return men will always be dangerous but statistically very few kicks get returned for touchdowns. Overall moving the TB mark to 25 will increase league scoring. That's 5 yards less offenses have to march to score.

 

[BradyFTW!]

It'll hurt the Pats comparatively, just like it'll hurt any team with a powerful kicker.

on the flip side, I'm sure Brandon Tate's hoping this doesn't happen.

 

[Froob]

It'll hurt the Pats comparatively, just like it'll hurt any team with a powerful kicker.

on the flip side, I'm sure Brandon Tate's hoping this doesn't happen.

Why would he care? Just cuz he doesn't make it out to the 25 half the time?

 

[jmt57]

I'm sure Brandon Tate's hoping this doesn't happen.

Agreed, because it makes his role less relevant. Same holds true for any kick returner.

Any team like the Bears that has a good kick returner (Devin Hester) is going to be affected by the rule change far more than a team with either a good or bad kicker.

 

[PatsDeb]

I think it hurts us, at least as we are built now. Our O has a good chance of getting us that 5 yards on every possession. Our D struggles to stop people. Why give them an extra five yards right off the bat?

 

[BradyBranch39]

depends on your definition of significantly.

 

[JFK]

If Graham is the kicker it helps.

No one knows how much Gosts injury would affect his kicking power. This change would = more touch-backs. Since touch-backs get the ball to the 25 then KRs have less reason to return the ball.....
Injuries lessen this way.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I think it helps us.

With Ghost it's all but guaranteed that our opponent will start at their own 25 each time we kick off. That helps a bend but don't break defense. Offense doesn't seem to be as affected by field position, when it's on it's on. For us the more important thing is not putting our defense in tough situations, IMO.

 

[IcyPatriot]

The other thread wasn't good enough .... good grief.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The other thread wasn't good enough .... good grief.

The other one didn't have a poll. :snob:

 

[RayClay]

It hurts the Pats and pretty much turns Gost into an unnecessary expense. Now every kicker can kick it into the end zone, and if it's close, why would you run it out when they've destroyed your blocking and you get a free spot at the twenty five?

Strong legged kickers lose half their value, sorry Gost, but even Graham can get touchbacks, especially since no one wants to bother running out kicks, anymore. Why risk a fumble or a less than 25 yd return?

As has been said, I hope this labor situation results in Goodell losing his job and we get someone who actually lies football.

 

[Don Kipines]

It hurts the Pats and pretty much turns Gost into an unnecessary expense. Now every kicker can kick it into the end zone, and if it's close, why would you run it out when they've destroyed your blocking and you get a free spot at the twenty five?

Strong legged kickers lose half their value, sorry Gost, but even Graham can get touchbacks, especially since no one wants to bother running out kicks, anymore. Why risk a fumble or a less than 25 yd return?

Statistically I'm pretty sure this actually helps the Patriots slightly, or it's at least a wash. It hurts them on the flip side, because Tate is an above-average returner, but with regard to kickoff coverage, it's probably a net plus.

If you look at last year's stats, Olindo Mare and Jay Feely tied for 13th in the league with a 65-yard average on kickoff distance. There were a good twenty kickers below those two who averaged less than 65 yards a kick. That means that even if they move the line up five yards, you're still going to get returnable kickoffs a decent percentage of the time.

Thus the new rule likely means that the Patriots on coverage will almost never have to deal with the threat of a big kickoff return (Gostkowski was second in the NFL with a 67.9 average), while Tate or whoever will have a shot for a return in about half to two-thirds of kicks. Given that the Pats were terrible on kickoff coverage in the second half of last year (i.e. after Graham started playing; they finished 17th in the NFL) and poor KO teams really impacted the loss to the Jets, I'm sure they'll take the certainty of the 25 yard-line every time.

 

[RayClay]

Statistically I'm pretty sure this actually helps the Patriots slightly, or it's at least a wash. It hurts them on the flip side, because Tate is an above-average returner, but with regard to kickoff coverage, it's probably a net plus.

If you look at last year's stats, Olindo Mare and Jay Feely tied for 13th in the league with a 65-yard average on kickoff distance. There were a good twenty kickers below those two who averaged less than 65 yards a kick. That means that even if they move the line up five yards, you're still going to get returnable kickoffs a decent percentage of the time.

Thus the new rule likely means that the Patriots on coverage will almost never have to deal with the threat of a big kickoff return (Gostkowski was second in the NFL with a 67.9 average), while Tate or whoever will have a shot for a return in about half to two-thirds of kicks. Given that the Pats were terrible on kickoff coverage in the second half of last year (i.e. after Graham started playing; they finished 17th in the NFL) and poor KO teams really impacted the loss to the Jets, I'm sure they'll take the certainty of the 25 yard-line every time.

Could be. It's still going to neuter the game, replacing kickoffs with a handoff to the other team. No one is going to try to kick it high to the one yard line, they are going to play it safe and give up the extra five yards.

Please fire the commissioner.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Could be. It's still going to neuter the game, replacing kickoffs with a handoff to the other team. No one is going to try to kick it high to the one yard line, they are going to play it safe and give up the extra five yards.

Please fire the commissioner.

While there are plenty of reasons to fire Goodell, this, at least, is not one of them (it's the competition committee—i.e., coaches/GMs/owners).

 

[RayClay]

While there are plenty of reasons to fire Goodell, this, at least, is not one of them (it's the competition committee—i.e., coaches/GMs/owners).

Oh, you mean Pollian. Well we can't fire him, let's fire the guy who says the players want no kickoffs and fans want an 18 game season.

 

[lurker1965]

The other thread wasn't good enough .... good grief.

The reason you decided to click on the redundancy was what exactly?

Oh, you wanted to post about the extra thread's redundancy. Of course. That was obvious. I should've known.

Please forgive this extraneous post.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Ghost would lead the league in Touchbacks. The opponents would never return one for a TD...

 

[jczxohn1]

Hang-time will be more important than distance. With the kick coverage five yds closer and the five yd advance for touchbacks, factor in the no-wedge rule, most kick teams will be trying to force a fair catch inside the 20. The kick team only having a 5 yd run-up prior to the kick will have little or no effect.

 

[jmt57]

The other thread wasn't good enough .... good grief.

I was going to merge them - perhaps I should have - but there's so little discussion on the first page of the main forum right now I figured it wouldn't hurt to have one thread on the potential rule change and another on the effect it would have to the Patriots.

A small bit of diversion to the pro-owners versus pro-players debates.