Pats fans sound scared. Have some faith. You know what, I'm not really as concerned with the playoffs so I'm going to go straight for the super bowl. How about that?
I think the Pats will get there unless they choke. Give the Pats some credit. There is not an AFC team this year that should scare anyone considering the land-scape. Maybe a Tebow miracle comeback which will have to include recovered on-side kicks, but anything short of that, the Pats shouldn't have a problem taking down anybody if they play their best game. Ben's banged up and churning out turnovers like candy, and the remaining QB's are either untested rookies or guys like....Joe Flacco? I'll see it as a huge upset if anybody in the AFC stops the Patriots. All the Patriots have to do is play their game and most of these teams will beat themselves in one way or another. And no I don't think I'm being overconfident and not saying they should overlook them. I'm just saying just continue to execute consistently and relentlessly like they have and let those teams stumble while they try to keep up . And they WILL stumble. So fast forward a bit to the big game, because this should be the level of play the Patriots need to prepare for anyway. If the Patriots are worried about the AFC this year, then forget about the super bowl. It WILL be a 27+ scoring super bowl. If there are turnovers it will be a blowout this year.
So when it comes to the big game, I am actually more concerned with the offense than the defense. It's been pretty clear that no NFL defense has been able to stop Green Bay or the Saints when their quarterbacks aren't having off days. When it comes to matching up with them, I think Pats D matches up ok. They are a seasoned, counter-scheme experienced defense which will match up well against both, but better against GB than the Saints. They'll take their time and figure them out in terms of their scheming eventually forcing enough incompletions to stop them a few times. Might take 3 possessions and giving up 60 yards a drive but they'll eventually stop them enough times to give the offense a chance. And the Pats also have pretty good special teams to help out on both ends. The Saints are a tougher bunch because they have a pretty bruising rushing attack to boot. They just have so many options it's quite impossible to account for all of them. On top of that Shawn is really on top of his game with his game planning and his offensive schemes this year. Green Bay, is going to be more about Rodgers. They depend heavily on his efficiency, but I don't see him slowing down either. Guy's on fire and it sounds like they may get Jennings back too for the championship game(if he's not 100% though I think it's a dumb move, but I suppose he deserves to be on that field and will be a big enough distraction).
When it's all said and done though I don't believe there is an NFL defense that you can put in front of these teams, that won't get scored on. Some might slow them down and keep the score low, but they will all get scored on pretty regularly. How many points they get scored on is going to depend on game length and turnovers. Defenses will be on the field and act more like kids mazes against these offenses. Offense will get through. So it's really going to be more about which offense stumbles and trips. Which QB loses focus and forces that pass he shouldn't. Which receiver hesitates and takes off on the run, before fully securing a catch. It will come down to those types of minor mistakes. And which D capitalizes on it. But there won't be any forcing, or any pressure-based schemes that will mess with these QB's. Playing aggressive, attack-style D, will get you killed so I actually like the Pats. In which case it will come down to the offense.
No 3 and outs. TD's vs FG's. And never missing an opportunity to put up points off of a turnover. Drew Brees can't get away with 4 passing touchdowns and 2 turnovers against Green Bay like he did against Atlanta. GB proved this earlier in the season. Close game, but that 1 turnover was all they needed. I don't think he can even get away with that against the Patriots. When it comes to the Patriots, the offense has stumbled and have been slowed down by some pretty unimpressive defenses so far this year but since Brees is more prone to picks, it will even things out if they somehow make it past GB. So then stopping their rushing attack will become the key factor. Brady can't afford to throw a pick period because Pats offense has stumbled quite a few times and either one of those teams will burn the Pats D. So it's going to take Tom raising up his level.
On a more general note this isn't going to be so much which defense is going to get a stop, but viewing it from the other perspective and seeing it more as which offense is going to fail to score on an opportunity.
I will say this though. With Green Bay and Rodgers, I know Carolina's kept them to 3 points on each of the 4 turnovers they committed this year. Bill may wanna take a look at that tape and see what the heck the Panthers D did because on all 4 occasions, GB started at mid-field or in our own territory and we were already missing our two best defensive players. We were playing rookies, 2nd and 3rd stringers on D and somehow didn't let them score TD's. They did have the lead for most of them though and as sloppy as we were playing, probably not worried too much about it, but it's still worth looking at. It may simply be a factor of Rodgers not being as confident and experienced when it gets cluttered in the red-zone. This may play into the Pats' D as well as Tom's favor. He won't have that problem.
In a battle it rarely comes down to who has the best armor but who has the sharper sword and better attacking strategy. Don't worry about what you don't have. Worry about about making that sword sharper and that arrow fly straighter. Everybody has an achilles heel. Not everyone is good enough to hit it when aiming for it. Or if you like cars analogies better then...
Pats= the C6 Corvette
GB = the C7 Corvette.
Yeah the new model might be a little faster, it's a little slicker, a bit more efficient, it's fresh, and in a drag race it would probably win. But the super bowl is not a drag race it's more like a rally race or formula one. You have a lot of twists and turns, and often comes down to the drivers and the co-pilots and sometimes those cars take a beating. So while GB may have the statistical advantage, and the slicker, newer offense, the Pats offense is well broken in, and have the more experienced driver and co-pilot and if any of them happen to break down, the Pats have the better mechanics who can patch it up, put that extra spit and shine on it, and finish the race because they have done it over and over. That advantage overcomes whatever statistical advantage GB's slicker engine has coming out of the factory.
At least that's my story and I'm sticking to it. Go Pats!
