When the current Red Sox ownership took over in 2002, they hired Bill James and Voros McCracken, two of the most respected sabermetricians in baseball, who's philosophy is the foundation of
Moneyball. Needless to say the Red Sox took a Moneyball approach and combined it into a $100+mil payroll, and viola!!!, and 86-year curse is broken!!!
Actually the Red Sox took Pedro Martinez and combined him with Curt Shilling, the first time in modern history they had two aces atop their roster, then whiffed on baseball's version of Peymeaton (Payrod) so remained stuck with the second highest paid player in he game they could not give away, combined them with a $130M payroll that included David Oritiz- a clutch hitter in his own right though he would likely lead the league in walks without that mega- expensive problem man-child still hitting ahead of or behind him, and viola....
I consider the Patriots to be football's answer to Moneyball, because they place a value on any particular player and seldom, if ever, overspend, especially on OL, RBs and WRs, positions other teams cough up wads of cash for.
The Red Sox will overspend for any player they think will help them gain an edge on their arch rivals even if it results in neither of them winning more often than not in the last several seasons. So would Billy Beane if he could. The Sox were prepared to rent a 42 year old pitcher who has prospered in the NL for the last couple of seasons by the month and let him write his own rules for off days. That's about as un-moneyball as you can get.
Sabermetrics barely correlates in baseball (see 2005 WC Chicago White Sox - the sabermatricians worst nightmare, and their manager who doesn't even own a computer) and doesn't at all in football because of the multiplicity of systems and schemes within systems. Pitching and defense wins in baseball, but sabermetrics can't seem to find a model that even accurately quantifies defense let alone accounts for the fact that a discarded Derek Lowe morphs into a series savior or a lightly rated Derek Jeter is somehow in precisely right place at the most unpredictable time and makes a defensive circus play, or a highly touted Slappy McPayrod will prove more beneficial to the team who courted him when playing for the arch enemy who landed him or a championship will turns on poor decision making in the clutch by a field manager irrespective of the sabermetric talent at his disposal.
Stats are a tool, and only a tool. Players in either sport will tell you that not only does clutch exist, they will tell you that championships are won on dirt and grass rather than on spreadsheeets and computer discs by guys who aren't always the most talented who perform above sabermetric expectations in a split second moment when it's all on the line. BB watches tape, and he identifies guys who are instinctively good football players with above average work ethic and he finds ways to plug them into his system. He overpays lots of those guys based on league valuation, he just won't overpay based on this teams valuation or compensation model (see Mike Vrabel). He eschews the stat happy overhyped mega talents, even while appreciating their talent, because in addition to being overpriced they generally lack the temperment to be versatily team oriented players. But he does require some exceptional talent. He allocates greater financial committment to his defense because historically with out it you don't win in the second season. Having a consistent and clutch kicker he trusts and can count on (BB called Adam the best money kicker in the game) made it less of a risk for him to be spend more on efense by being being fiscally prudent on overall offense. Having a clutch QB who can pretty consistently do more with less helped too.
I was referring specifically to Super Bowl GW FG attempts. Adam is only the 3rd kicker in SB history to have that opportunity.
And he earned it, for the entire franchise. He misses the game tying kick in 2001, or the game winning one for that matter which he got on a coin toss, and there may well have been not just one less Lombardi in the case but it could remain empty at 47 years and counting. That kick kept hope alive, just like the Brady rushing TD and the drive that almost culminated in a fumble. Minus that win there is a very good chance Belichick and Brady depart in the ensuing season and Drew never gets traded to Buffalo. Ditto in 38, where given the 4th quarter collapse of an exhausted defense and the momentum shift awakening the greatest show on turf, there was likely far less than a 50-50 chance we win it in OT - if we win the toss. That was why BB and CW made the decision to go for it. Not only was time running out, our defense already had. Doesn't mean it was all Adam's doing, but when the chips were down he delivered. And that effected the way this team played over the next few seasons. Brady and Belichick gameplan with a level of trust because they believed all they had to do was keep it close or get it close and if 3 points would tie it or win it Adam could be counted on to deliver. Nobody delivers every time, including Brady and Belichick. And Belichick would be the first to admit that on the part of a pretty clutch coaching staff as well.
Would you agree that there is the possibility of the existence "clutch" kickers around the league that never had the opportunities that Adam had?
Of course, just as many as their are are clutch QB's who just didn't luck into BB's system in backyards in America let alone on 31 other franchises who could do what Tom does just given the chance...
"Once clutch, always clutch", doesn't hold up. Derek Jeter is considered
"clutch" but he hasn't always come through, as evidenced by his team's playoff failures since Game 7 of the 2001 WS. You mentioned Tom Brady, who I strongly feel is the best player in football today. However, was he "clutch" against Denver in the AFC Divisional game? His brain fart INT turned a potential 10-9 game into a 17-6 deficit. Therefore, it is logical to assume that Adam, who missed a 43-yard FG in the Denver game, won't always be "clutch".
I've seen Adam cost us games with missed FGs in the past...
I've seen Jeter cost the Yankees games, and Belichick and Brady cost us games, but that doesn't mean they aren't clutch and won't continue to be. Clutch isn't an all or nothing skill set, it's just an intangible capacity to perform when necessary at a higher than average level more often than not. That's why it's hard to quantify statistically. And saying that doesn't preclude it's existance, just highlights the limits of statistical analysis to quantify anything intangible. It's like the difference between scientific evidence and anecdotal evidence. The inability to replicate anecdotal findings in a lab setting doesn't disprove their existence. You cannot quantify art via science, and sports are a blending of both. Which is why the guy with the fastest time, or the longest arms, or the farthest jump will as often as not inexplicably suck in the NFL or even MLB while a guy whose measurables barely get him drafted will inexplicably blossom into an all star.
